Hard to believe, but my first season as a baseball analyst here at Razzball is almost at an end! For athletes, that means they’re leaving the bubble soon. Us fantasy writers? We’re all bubbled-up to protect from the dreaded Piranhavirus. Oh, you don’t know what that is? See, we’re so forward thinking here at Razzball, we’re already sequestered away for the next pandemic. You may be asking, “How does the Razzbubble work?” Well, future victims of piranhas, let me show you my notes from earlier this summer when I bubbled up.

Day 1: Arrival. That’s the movie Grey and Rudy based the Razzbubble on. They stood behind a glass wall and held up signs for me to follow. I don’t know why they brought a smoke machine. Or the lasers. Once they let me inside the bunker, I received my “Programming Guide.” It has a picture of Nixon on the cover, but not the one you’re thinking of. Grey says I should read it everyday. Like, six times a day. He sure loves reading!

Day 2: The Razzbubble is fun. We have catered lunches of spam and cheese sandwiches, the writers get together to watch Lost reruns, and Donkey Teeth leads us in yoga classes. Grey keeps talking about “sleepers,” and tells us to read the Programming Guide for more information.

Day 3: Jay left the bubble because he’s very good with “sleepers.” I saw him holding a piece of paper with the name “Matthew Berry” written on it. Sounds like a collaboration is in order! Rudy then taped off all the doors, which I thought was kind of weird. But, it was dessert night! Grey gave us each half a Ding Dong and kept saying, “Here’s your dong!”

Day 4: SAGNOF SAGNOF SAGNOF SAGNOF SAGNOF SAGNOF. The Programming Guide feels like it’s changing my brain structure. I’m suddenly very interested in Roman Quinn. Phew. I wish I could find Coolwhip to compare notes with. I went to his bunk today and there was just a note that said, “Andrew McCutchen, first round, 2021.” He must have broken his red pen while writing that because the paper was covered in wet, red ink. I left my red pen in his bunk. He’ll be so happy!

Day 5: Competition Day. Donkey Teeth said he could do the Three-Legged Race by himself. I won $150 when I beat Rudy in flag football. He’s recovering in the infirmary and I nearly got kicked out of the Razzbubble. Can’t believe I misunderstood the point of that game!

Day 6: Got invited into Grey’s dorm for the first time. The walls are covered in posters of Depeche Mode, and he’s got a small library dedicated to Earnest Hemingway novels. He’s got freeze dried boba in his room, a lot like astronaut ice cream. He said I could have some if I signed over my life possessions to something called the “Church of Razzology.” He told me I would learn the secrets of closers if I signed everything over today! Of course, I said, “SAGNOF!”

Day 7: We finished the bubble! I feel very lucky to have made it through. Did I tell you a dozen other writers disappeared? Must have walked out or got kicked out or something. They probably felt really bad about leaving. I kept hearing shouts of “No!” and “Don’t touch my keyboard!” in the middle of the night. One time I heard someone shout, “Kenley Jansen in the third round!” That writer didn’t read the Programming Guide! Did I mention I’m now legally married to Ty France? Anyway, Grey said that I’ve “matriculated” or something like that. He said it while hugging a picture of Yolmer Sanchez.

Equipped with that knowledge from the Razzbubble, I hold the reins as the internet’s 7th most-read weekly ranker of fantasy pitchers. Grey says that if I make it to the top 5, he’ll tell me where Coolwhip is!

So, Razzbubblers, let’s get on with the show!

September 14-20, 2020

In case you missed my very effective post last week — and because it was Labor Day you definitely did miss it — I gave you some advice to prep for your fantasy playoffs. I’ll recap it here quickly: 1) don’t horde insurmountable leads in categories; instead, trade or add/drop to get players who will help you in other categories; 2) if you’re in redraft, drop the dead weight to pick up the hot hand, 3) if you’re in dynasty and out of the playoffs, start trading or add/dropping to get a head start on next year’s team.

Last week, a bunch of the players I profiled did the opposite of their trends during the playing week. Zac Gallen? He went from un-hitta-ball (how do we not use that term more often?) to Robbie Ray. Gerrit Cole? He went from elite-level batting practice pitcher to his old form. That’s a good thing. It’s important to note that even great pitchers have, at best, a 60-70% success rate. There are high-paid analysts on opposing teams that study pitch sequencing and location in an effort to thwart pitcher success. Remember that fantasy sports is always a game of odds — and often times those odds are stacked against you, the player — and the best you can do is re-stack the odds in your favor. Start your stars, play matchups wisely, and don’t fret unexpected blowouts. Enjoy the game you love and stay safe from the piranhas.

News and Notes

Dylan Bundy — Bundy wiped out the Texas Rangers this week, K’ing 12 in 7.1 IP while allowing 2 ER and 1BB. A couple of weeks ago I and other internet personalities were worried about his sudden drop in velocity, down to 86MPH. As noted, there could have been external factors at play there: it was the trade deadline, and Bundy knew that several teams were courting his services from the Angels. Instead of acquiring prospects, the Angels kept their work in progress — that’s Bundy, to be clear — and his average fastball velocity was at a happy 90.8 MPH during his last outing. Start with confidence going down the stretch, although don’t make too much out of his sterling performance against the anemic Rangers’ offense.

Gerrit Cole — Cole knew all of us keyboard warriors on the internet were talking about him after his disastrous August. With a HR/9 hovering above 2, Cole settled in on 9/11 for 7IP and 9Ks against the Orioles. The Orioles learned to swing freely against Cole, having put up 5 runs (although only 1 of those earned) while striking out 10 times just a week before against Cole. Only this time, in Yankee Stadium on Patriot Day, Cole took command and looked like his old form. In terms of his pitch mixture, he’s swapped his slider and curveball in the past two outings, which has resulted in greater command, fewer home runs, and more whiffs. When people talk about ace pitchers having more than two pitches, this is what they’re referring to: sometimes a pitcher’s “stuff” just isn’t there. A 2-pitch ace has, well, no backup pitch that they can switch to. Cole has the typical four pitch repertoire, so he’s able to change up his mix when he’s in trouble. He’s gained 1MPH on his fastball in September, and Rudy’s Rest-of-Season rankings still love him, so start him with confidence and avoid stacking against him. Of course, the Yankees offense has tanked, so tamper any expectations of Wins.

Sean Manaea — OK, are you ready for a dose of “I wasn’t ready for that”? In 5 starts since August 15, Manaea has a 1.98 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, a 21:2 K/BB ratio, and has allowed 1 home run. Now, because Manaea doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, it’s this last statistic — home runs allowed — that is particularly intriguing. Although Manaea allows a rather high exit velocity of 92MPH on average — meaning hitters are smacking his pitches — his average launch angle is 7.1 degrees, tied for 17th “ground-ballsiest” among MLB SP. Batters are hitting his pitches hard into the ground or into line drives, which results in very few hits allowed against Manaea (20 hits in his last 27 IP). And, as that cherry on top, the Athletics are hitting and winning a ton of games, so Manaea has notched 4 Wins in his last 5 outings. Now, Manaea had an awful beginning to 2020, where he failed to get past the 4th inning in his first 4 starts. But we’re living in Piranhavirus 2020 time, where you’re trying to win your championship. All signs point to Manaea being a great finisher to the year, and Rudy’s Rest-of-Season-o-Nator-o-Tron has him as the 35th best SP to finish out 2020. Just don’t expect a ton of whiffs.

Deivi Garcia — I’ve had a couple questions about him, so let’s chat him up. I’ve been a Deivi fan for a while, having stashed him in all of my dynasty leagues. Now, he’s finally at the MLB level, and he’s not disappointing. Well, the Yankees are disappointing. But not Deivi. Now, when we all started bubbling up, Deivi wasn’t even old enough to legally drink the boxes of wine that got us through March and April (myself, I’m a rum fan). Now that we’re out of quarantine and letting the piranhas feast upon human flesh freely, Garcia is in the majors and making a splash. In the minors, he averaged over 4BB/9, which, my statistically-minded friends, is not great. Reminder: he was 18-20 years old at the time. Young men don’t always have command of their balls, right? HEY-O! ENYWHEY. Garcia made the MLB roster after all the other Yankees pitchers jumped off a pier into the East River because it was cleaner than the Piranhavirus-infested society, so Garcia may keep his cup of coffee fresh and warm after his recent performances. He debuted against the Mets — who are statistically the second best hitting team in baseball — and struck out six batters while walking none and giving up four hits over 6 IP. His next start against the Orioles was a bit more troubling, with 4ER over 4IP, but another 6K followed. In his last start on September 9 against the Buffalo Blue Jays in Sahlen Field, Garcia K’d another 6 batters over 7IP while allowing only 2ER in one of the more prolific run-producing parks. Most notably, Garcia has walked only 2 of the 70 batters he’s faced. Now, are we to think a guy who has 3 years of 4BB/9 performance to his name has suddenly discovered impeccable DeGrom-like command? No, that’s unreasonable. Garcia has been throwing the ball in the strike zone at a rate in line with the league leaders — nearly 45% of the time — which puts him on par with Kyle Hendricks, Andrew Heaney, and Lance Lynn. Batters have made contact with Garcia’s strike-zone pitches nearly 77% of the time, which is not great, but so far he’s managed to induce a ton of soft contact. More worrisome, he’s got a 47% fly ball rate, which is bolstered by a much-too-high 30% of balls being popped up into the infield. With batters averaging a launch angle of 23 degrees against Garcia, the odds are more likely that he’s going to have a couple teams take him yard at the end of the season. Do I like Garcia in dynasty? Yes. Would I tell you to send him to the mound in your fantasy playoffs? Eh…no. He’s been pitching well, but don’t be surprised if to see a 5IP, 4BB, 2HR, 5ER outing in the next week or two. Don’t believe me? Hobbs has a whole write-up on Deivi that you can read here. He agrees: watch out on the rest of season performance.

Zac Gallen — Well, when you throw something like 20 consecutive games without giving up more than 3ER, and then EWB writes about you, it figures that you’ll blow up in your next two games. His fastball is actually increasing in velocity over those two starts. Every pitcher goes through a tough time, and the Diamondbacks aren’t exactly the kind of team that can recover from rough first innings. Keep starting Gallen through the fantasy playoffs. What’s more important, is that unless Gallen demonstrates a complete loss of form in his final two starts, you’re probably looking at a candidate for the top 10 SP in 2021.

Dakota Hudson — Here’s my pick for a waiver wire add to get you Wins in the playoff run. Hudson has two more starts projected, against the Pirates and the Royals, both of which the Cardinals are heavy favorites (65% and nearly 75% win probabilities at the time of writing). Over his past 4 starts, Hudson has averaged 6IP with an ERA under 3.00 and a WHIP under 1.00. He’s added 27Ks in that period of time, although he’s still prone to the long ball. He’s owned in 60% of Yahoo leagues, so, there’s a great chance you can grab him for free on the waiver wire right now. The Cardinals offense is adequate, faring right in the middle of MLB teams for runs created.

Sonny GrayAfter I originally submitted the article early on Saturday, Gray hit the IL with back spasms. The IL move is retroactive to Friday, meaning Gray could come back for a final start at the end of the year. However, the Reds are a long-shot to make the playoffs, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Gray takes it easy if he comes back in the regular season. There’s absolutely no reason for the Reds to push Gray in a meaningless situation. You’re seeing him at his original rank below, but I would now put him in the major dart throws in the 80s. Also I wrote this whole paragraph with the spelling “Grey” before I caught the error, so I’m really just thinking about calling Grey “Sonny.”

Alec Mills — OK, I had to come back and edit the post for Mills. The guy threw a no-hitter! That’s a feat. Full stop. Mills had the day of his life and he should celebrate it. But! We’re a fantasy site and we gotta think about whether Mills is useful for your fantasy playoffs. The answer is a resounding: probably not. Mills started out the year surprisingly effective and then completely fell off the rails from mid-August until last week, posting a 7.66ERA and a 2.55 HR/9. I would investigate whether his fastball lost any speed but if you remember my previous analysis (which was like 20,000 words ago so of course you remember) then you would know that Mills is basically the slowest pitcher in a MLB starting rotation. His curveball sits around 66MPH and it’s not one of those “mess with your head” things that Zack Greinke does. The Brewers have been almost no-hit three times this year. Well, two almost no-hitters and one actual no-hitter. Now, the Brewers have played 44 games this year. That’s nearly 7% of their season where they’ve been almost no-hit. Quick! Who’s the best hitter on the Brewers this year? Did you answer Jedd Gyorko? Because it’s Jedd Gyorko. Again, Alec Mills had the best day of his life today. Don’t let fantasy take away from that. But, don’t start Mills in your fantasy playoff run.

Rankings

Because we’re in the playoffs or right at the end of your fantasy season, I’m switching the rankings so that every column represents data from the past three weeks. This helps reveal some hotter players like Sean Manaea, who would otherwise be completely ignored because of his awful start to 2020. Basically, there’s three tiers: 1-30 are the must starts, 30-59 are probable starts, and honestly, every pitcher after 70 makes my teeth sweat. Remember when I pointed out earlier in the year that starting pitchers were going short innings and getting hit hard? Guess what? It’s misery season! Good luck!

FIP=Fielding Independent Pitching; SwSt%=Swinging Strike %; EV=Batted Ball Exit Velocity; Hard Hit%=percent in hard hit batted balls. All data represents the past three weeks. Data supplied by Fangraphs and Razzball’s Player Rater, and compiled by yours truly. 

Rank Name FIP SwSt% EV Hard Hit%
1 Jacob deGrom 1.73 0.242 86 25
2 Shane Bieber 2.45 0.158 88 38
3 Yu Darvish 2.46 0.15 88.8 29.1
4 Max Scherzer 2.65 0.146 86.6 31.8
5 Aaron Nola 2.79 0.139 89 37.1
6 Trevor Bauer 3.83 0.122 90.6 46.2
7 Tyler Glasnow 2.96 0.164 89.2 37.5
8 Luis Castillo 3.66 0.141 85.5 35.9
9 Lucas Giolito 2.03 0.228 88 30.9
10 Sonny Gray 3.86 0.097 85.4 27.3
11 Gerrit Cole 4.85 0.19 91.1 46.3
12 Dinelson Lamet 2.77 0.128 87.6 39.6
13 Kenta Maeda 3.36 0.176 85.1 22.8
14 Clayton Kershaw 2.31 0.085 87.8 30.4
15 Zac Gallen 4 0.11 86.7 35.1
16 Jack Flaherty 3.99 0.116 88.7 32.6
17 Dylan Bundy 1.74 0.136 87 34.3
18 Hyun-Jin Ryu 3.29 0.118 88.3 33.9
19 Zack Wheeler 2.64 0.119 87.7 39.7
20 Carlos Carrasco 3.11 0.131 85.5 27.4
21 Andrew Heaney 2.59 0.125 86.7 31.4
22 Corbin Burnes 0.94 0.142 85.5 40.8
23 Zack Greinke 3.24 0.096 88.1 34.3
24 Brandon Woodruff 3.24 0.151 85.8 29.8
25 Jose Berrios 3.74 0.141 90.6 48.8
26 Lance Lynn 5.44 0.118 92 41.2
27 Mike Clevinger 3.37 0.132 88.5 36.7
28 Ian Anderson 2.97 0.122 87.1 34
29 Dallas Keuchel 2.51 0.104 85.7 25
30 Kyle Hendricks 4.35 0.091 86.7 36.3
31 Zach Davies 4.32 0.103 89.9 41.4
32 Framber Valdez 4.2 0.093 91.4 50.7
33 Blake Snell 4.24 0.14 87.1 30.2
34 Aaron Civale 4.36 0.113 85.9 32.4
35 Patrick Corbin 4.4 0.1 92.8 53.9
36 Jesus Luzardo 4.01 0.106 89.1 39.6
37 Kevin Gausman 4.28 0.164 90.7 51.4
38 Pablo Lopez 4.21 0.105 87.2 37.9
39 Yusei Kikuchi 2.78 0.121 90.5 34.8
40 Sean Manaea 2.14 0.095 91.3 46.9
41 Zach Plesac 5.25 0.15 89.6 32.2
42 Chris Paddack 3.25 0.136 92.2 50
43 Masahiro Tanaka 3.62 0.153 86.5 27.3
44 Walker Buehler 4.89 0.121 88.8 34.8
45 Jordan Montgomery 3.54 0.129 85.9 29.8
46 Julio Urias 4.47 0.092 87.9 38.6
47 Zach Eflin 4.35 0.078 87.5 31.9
48 Triston McKenzie 3.29 0.14 86.1 37.8
49 German Marquez 4.08 0.125 90.2 47.4
50 Ryan Yarbrough 2.87 0.1 77.7 12.9
51 Joe Musgrove 1.48 0.155 81.3 17.7
52 Marco Gonzales 2.67 0.113 85.9 39.7
53 Sixto Sanchez 3.12 0.144 87.9 39.4
54 Dane Dunning #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
55 Frankie Montas 5.43 0.104 89.6 40.9
56 Max Fried 2.76 0.093 84.2 20
57 Spencer Turnbull 4.45 0.095 89.5 42.9
58 Dustin May 5.23 0.073 87.8 35.2
59 Lance McCullers Jr. 5.03 0.135 89.5 23.5
60 Randy Dobnak 4.31 0.085 87.1 39.7
61 Charlie Morton 2.48 0.086 88.7 36.8
62 Brad Keller 3.2 0.056 89.4 40.7
63 Brady Singer 3.95 0.1 87.9 38.2
64 Matthew Boyd 5.26 0.137 87.5 40.4
65 Tony Gonsolin 3.62 0.18 90.4 40.5
66 Antonio Senzatela 6.9 0.071 91.2 45.7
67 Tyler Mahle 4.51 0.151 87.7 38.6
68 Josh Lindblom 4.46 0.1 90 31.1
69 Chris Bassitt 4.12 0.084 89.3 43.7
70 Jon Gray 5.85 0.088 91.8 53.1
71 Kyle Freeland 3.98 0.095 86.8 39
72 Casey Mize 5.37 0.099 88.9 45.7
73 Tarik Skubal 5.22 0.113 90.8 39.5
74 Garrett Richards 5.14 0.104 90.6 34.4
75 Justus Sheffield 3.64 0.074 90.6 44.3
76 Jon Lester 3.86 0.103 88.5 40.6
77 Johnny Cueto 5.34 0.106 86.7 38.3
78 Dylan Cease 5.61 0.089 90 45
79 Adrian Houser 4.59 0.095 85.6 32.7
80 Nathan Eovaldi 5.86 0.15 94.5 85.7
81 Freddy Peralta 2.73 0.173 87.4 30
82 Sandy Alcantara 5.38 0.095 88.8 38
83 Danny Duffy 6.43 0.093 89.3 33.3
84 Jake Odorizzi #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
85 Mike Minor 6.75 0.101 87.5 41.7
86 Griffin Canning 4.05 0.112 89.2 34.4
87 Cristian Javier 5.56 0.065 86.6 31.3
88 Adam Wainwright 4.71 0.121 88.4 40.2
89 Kolby Allard 6.02 0.087 92.9 46.9
90 Ross Stripling 6.83 0.061 90.5 34.6
91 Mike Fiers 3.31 0.061 89.3 39.6
92 Spencer Howard 4.77 0.104 84.2 33.3
93 Alec Mills 5.53 0.093 89.6 44.8
94 Rich Hill 4.01 0.081 89.3 34.7
95 Tejay Antone 5 0.106 87.7 35.1
96 Jose Urquidy 5.78 0.099 93.5 48.4
97 Luke Weaver 3.64 0.096 89.7 42.1
98 Rick Porcello 2.36 0.063 87.6 39
99 Anthony DeSclafani 8.41 0.057 89.2 48.4
100 Tommy Milone 7.2 0.118 89.9 38.6

Aye, you made it this far, didn’t ya. EverywhereBlair is, well, located at home right now. He’s a historian and lover of prog-metal. He enjoys a good sipping rum. When he’s not churning data and making fan fiction about Grey and Donkey Teeth, you can find him dreaming of shirtless pictures of Lance Lynn on Twitter @Everywhereblair.

 
  1. Coolwhip

    Coolwhip says:
    (link)

    HAHA nothing makes sense anymore! (thanks for the pen.)

    Plesac also got Ple-sacked this week…

    Zach Davies is almost there… we’ll will him to the top 30 for next week!

    Already penciling in my potential SP targets for next season (since my pen ran out):
    Gallen, Castillo (again), Sixto, Luzardo, Plesac, McKensie, Dunning, maybe Gonsolin–i still really like May but he needs to get Ks.

    • Coolwhip

      Coolwhip says:
      (link)

      also have my eye on Ian Anderson and Spencer Howard

      • everywhereblair

        everywhereblair says:
        (link)

        Ian Anderson has been lights out. If he gets into a real season in 2021 and maintains success, watch out 2022 Top 10 SP!

  2. JKJ

    JKJ says:
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    Not buying what Pineda’s selling, eh?

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      That’s more than fair. I mean, he’s got a track record of blah performances. Years of them. In the Statcast era, he’s put up a 4.40 ERA, at 16% HR/FB rate, and a 1.2 WHIP. That’s just as good as the dart throws.

      Again, there’s a ton of pitchers to stream. Pineda is one of them. But he gets the White Sox next, and that’s (performs Grey’s voice) probably not going to end well.

      • JKJ

        JKJ says:
        (link)

        Yeah the metrics don’t look great…and that’s just the sorta matchup he’d go ham in, then let the Bucs run wild all over him.

        • dontbichetteme says:
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          Pretty sure that he gets the Cubs on Saturday. Not nearly as bad as the white sox.

          • everywhereblair

            everywhereblair says:
            (link)

            Ope! You’re right. It was a Chicago team but I read the schedule too quick. You’re right, the Chicago CUBS are Pineda’s next start. They’re league average for hitting, a bit more attractive than the murderous White Sox.

  3. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    The Razzbubble literature states clearly to overrate all sexy rookie pitchers, please move Sixto Sanchez up to the top 10, thank you.

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      [points to Ian Anderson at 28 and cowers under the table]

      HE’S SEXY TOO DAMNIT

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        I pardon you

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
      (link)

      I remember the first time Grey invited me to his dorm room. It was like a scene out of the Bikram Yoga documentary.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Wild Wild Country Strong with Jim Thome posters

      • everywhereblair

        everywhereblair says:
        (link)

        Did he make you do a tarot reading with a deck of 1996 Upper Deck cards too? I kept pulling out Randy Johnson cards and Grey said “THIS IS A FAMILY BUBBLE!”

        That’s when he got the idea to marry me to Ty France, I think.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I said I wanted you to tie the knot in France, but same diff really

          • everywhereblair

            everywhereblair says:
            (link)

            I gave up my purity ring for this?!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Don’t hate it for you, Ty France has good matchups

    • TarmanGotHim says:
      (link)

      I wrote a 15 paragraph comment and erased it, you summed it up in 1 sentence. LOL. Agreed!!

      But why everywhereblair?

      Otherwise, for the most part, great write up ;)

      Congrats on your first year with Razzball and than dog rally of the help (and future help)!!!!

  4. dontbichetteme says:
    (link)

    What are we thinking about Gausman? I love how he was pitching and was looking forward to a 2 start week for him until they announced the double header sunday. Then they announced that he had an elbow issue. 2 potential starts against SEA and COL make him worth holding but the elbow issue has me debating whether its worth it. Can drop him outright for Pineda, Richards, Canning, Eovaldi or Hamels.

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
      (link)

      Oof. Eovaldi and Pineda probably have the highest ceiling. As a Twins fan, I’ve been hearing rumors that the team is certain that they’ll make the playoffs and will therefore relax on their starters in these last games. Of course, half of MLB said they were going with 6-man rotations during summer training, and look how that turned out.

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