Yeah yeah, I know we have a bear-bull post that SON has been leading the charge with for several years now, but I haven’t gotten out of my pajamas since the beginning of March and I’m knee-deep in social distancing, I just don’t have the energy to create a better title pun. WE’RE DOING IT LIVE. Not really, but you get my point. While baseball remains in a rut, depending on how much optimism you have left, there are rumblings that July 4th is being eyed as a return to normalcy. Well, maybe not normalcy, but some within the MLB are pushing this date as an achievable goal. I for one am not falling for that hope of optimism, I’m an American dammit, nothing but Cheetos and depression for me! Whether or not this date works out (Narrator: “It wouldn’t”), I have been slowly creating content that is starting to follow a trend: and that’s going over players coming into the season that have either been forgotten, banished to the low-expectation corner of the room, or are unlucky enough to call themselves Padres. This time, I’m setting my sights upon a pitcher, who with a passing glance looks a lot like Bruce Chen reincarnated (pretty cool trick if you ask me since Bruce is still alive), but upon further sight-setting (real word?), might actually end up looking more like Aaron Nola…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Please see our player page for Spencer Turnbull to see projections for today, the next 7 days and rest of season as well as stats and gamelogs designed with the fantasy baseball player in mind.
With these top 100 starters for 2020 fantasy baseball, I’ve finished our (my) 2020 fantasy baseball rankings for positions. Still coming will be a top 100 overall and top 500 to see how all the positions mesh together like your mesh Redskins jersey that meshes with your burgundy sweatpants. Trust me, when you see how long this post is, you’ll be glad I kept this intro short. All the 2020 fantasy baseball rankings are there. Here’s Steamer’s 2020 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2020 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. Here’s all the 2020 fantasy baseball auction rankings. As always, my projections are included, and where I see tiers starting and stopping. If you want an explanation of tiers, go back to the top 10 overall and start this shizz all over again. Anyway, here’s the top 100 starters for 2020 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
This week, I’d like to focus on the benefits of a contrarian mindset. It helps make clear life choices without needing the approval of others. It helps maintain an even approach to the highs and lows of life. Most importantly, it helps in predicting outcomes. One of my favorite contrarian principles is regression to the mean, the philosophy at the heart of this week’s finding aces segment. When I introduced the series and background group of pitchers, the term luck was mentioned regularly. Quantifying luck is a difficult premise. However, in leveraging regression to the mean we can increase our chances. If a pitcher suffered from poor luck in 2019, that same pitcher is more likely to benefit from good luck in the future. We hope that future is the 2020 season.
In order to identify young pitchers who suffered from poor luck in 2019 I performed the following:
- Gathered all starting pitchers with over 50 innings pitched in 2019. Thanks, Fangraphs.
- Removed any pitchers with more than 400 career innings pitched to isolate for Youthful Jumps.
- Sorted to find only pitchers whose ERA was 0.5 greater than one of FIP, xFIP, or SIERA.
- Eliminated any pitchers who did not have a metric under 4.5.
The result? 10 pitchers. I’ve removed 5 of those for reasons noted at the bottom. The rest of the group is evaluated below:Please, blog, may I have some more?
When Donkey Teeth asked me to take some of the team previews I let him know that I would take a bunch of the bottom of the barrel teams that no one else with pride or self-respect would want to write about. Yea, there’s a lot of sex appeal and glory writing about the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers — but only the truly down-and-dirty fantasy writers will try to find fantasy relevance on the Tigers and Orioles! Turns out — there’s actually a few slightly dim — but still moderately bright fantasy spots on the Tigers.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Remove Giancarlo’s hamate bone! Please! Actually, remove all players’ hamate bones immediately! Sorry, not to get all The Handmaid’s Tale here, but have Aunt Lydia line up all hitters and scalpel their hamates out of their hands. No, no, no, seriously! What if the hamateless hand is just a millisecond quicker around on a swing adding to exit velocity and–Ugh! Can’t that be a possibility? I will remove my tinfoil hat for you to answer me. Okay, I can’t risk Thetans invading my between-the-ears-space so I’m putting the hat back on. Sorry. So, Jose Ramirez returned from the IL, hamateless, and did what Matt Olson and legions of others (maybe no one else) have done before and homered a bazillion times. Yesterday, Jose Ramirez went 2-for-3, 7 RBIs with his 21st and 22nd homer. In 2020, I imagine Jose Ramirez will be ranked in the preseason by everyone like I ranked him coming into this year — at some point in the 2nd round vs. that top five ranking everyone was giving him like a bunch of loons. Though, now that hamate removal surgery is the new cortisone shot… Hmm… Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
What do we say to the devil? Not today, devil. But they say, “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t know.” And devil’s in the details. So, for the last five months, Giancarlo Stanton (1-for-3) was the devil I didn’t know any details about, but yesterday we said, “Today, devil,” so where does that leave us? In hell still, as the Yankees said they will baby Stanton, sending him out for only a few at-bats. Yo, are you Arthriticarlo Stanton? Should’ve never held him all year, but his thighs are so beautiful and well-lotioned in bed! Sorry, was reading a well-tailored-to-me fortune cookie. I suppose if Stanton’s out there, you can add him, and play him, but a few at-bats here and there doesn’t exactly instill confidence. Hopefully, by the time 2020 rolls around, Giancarlo will be less Arthriticarlo and more the Giancarlo I’ve pasted to my pillow. And that’s not Elmer’s Glue. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Andrew Heaney has an eye on a prize and that prize is a 2020 sleeper article. “Grey usually puts sleepers out starting in December, and I know Oscar Mercado, Zac Gallen and, ugh, Delino DeShields are going to be vying for a spot on that list. Listen, all you can do is say your prayers, eat your kale and hope Grey picks your name.” Delino added, “Usually one good game is all it takes.” Oh, shut up, Delino! Yesterday, Andrew Heaney gave us a how’s your father without the small talk of asking how one’s father actually was — 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners (zero walks), 14 Ks, ERA at 4.31. He now hasn’t allowed more than three runs dating back to June (small bit of cherrypicking since he has gone less than 5 IP in some of those starts, but injuries and yadda). Heaney perfs (kids call them that) are solid if teetering on ‘just okay’ — 10.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 4.33 FIP. A solid September could vault him into a top 40 starter conversation for 2020, but the lack of health and propensity for homers makes me think he’s going to fall short of that bar. For right now, he’s an obvious own. “But no sleeper, right?” Shut up, Delino! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yesterday, the Indians were to the Yankees as the Yankees were to the Orioles and the Orioles were to the Orioles during split-squad games in Spring Training and Spring Training is to Kevin Bacon. Five degrees! Take that, dentist of the mailman whose wife goes to Kyra Sedgwick manicurist! This Indians’ scalping of the Yankees was a long, long time coming. What a narrative for Jose Ramirez this year. From April until June 30th, he had 5 HRs and was hitting .214. In the next six weeks, he has 14 homers and is hitting around .300 (around because I didn’t feel like doing the math, deal with it), including yesterday’s part in the drubbing (2-for-3, 6 RBIs and his 18th and 19th homer). Jos-Rami is the 1st time I can remember feeling like I nailed his preseason overrated post, while taking the W for saying to buy him in June. A double W, a double-dub, a dubya with a dubya, a–Okay, you get the point. For 2020, I bet everyone will be ranking Jose Ramirez in the same place where I had him this year, tail-end of the 1st round vs. that top five crap they were all coming with this year. Otherwise? More W’s for Grey! A triple dubya, a worldwide W, a–All right, enough. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Psyche! Before we move into the roundup, there’s a new fantasy football video at the top of this post. Watch, review and rate. Kidding, you goofs! You just need to watch. 2nd of all, join one of our fantasy football leagues before they’re all filled. Anyway II, the roundup:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Magic Genie of Fantasy Baseball says that if I put a baseball card of a player I own in a Dreamcatcher and put the Dreamcatcher under my pillow while I’m sleeping then *gulps* then the Magic Genie of Fantasy Baseball will come in the middle of the night and give my player a Quality Start. So…*bashfully looks down*..I put Chris Paddack‘s baseball card under my pillow and I’VE BEEN A GOOD BOY! Holy Hayzeus Lazarus and Pontius, Inventor of Pilates, I had a good start! Yesterday, Chris Paddack went 7 2/3 IP, 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 ER and 8 Ks, lowering his ERA to 2.70. Please throw 170 more innings this year! “Don’t be greedy,” interrupts Magic Genie of Fantasy Baseball. “Hey, Magic Genie of Fantasy Baseball, you sound like a spot remover.” “Just for that, I’m pushing Marquez back so he starts at Coors next! Muahahaha!” So, Paddack had a great start, which tacks onto his season of more-than-we-could’ve-hoped-for. He currently ranks 25th for xFIP; 23rd for K/9 and 13th for walk rate. And he’s in Petco for his home starts! Happy to be the Mohel at his Star Mitzvah. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yesterday, the Pirates exploded for five homers, touching up Brad Peacock (3 IP, 6 ER, ERA at 4.13). Maybe the Pirates would’ve let up more if his name was Brad Parrot. Kevin Newman led the way once again, going 3-for-5, 2 RBIs with his 4th homer, and 2nd homer in as many games. Of course, he will be in this afternoon’s Buy column. Didn’t need Newman to star in the show off the Peacock, but fantasy owners should still be saying, “Hello, Newman.” Then, Starling Marte (2-for-5, 3 runs) got a slam (12) and legs (12), as he plays his OCD for laughs, as one can do in the decade of the 90s. Then, Jacob Stallings, subject of Permanent Midnight and staff writer on ALF, got into the action, going 3-for-3, 2 runs, 2 RBIs with his 1st homer. Then, Corey Dickerson (1-for-4, 2 RBIs) hit his 2nd homer, and had his 2nd big game in a row. Previously, Co-Dick was famous for what Siamese Twins filled out on a medical report, but maybe we should be “Stuck on You!” Finally, Josh Bell (2-for-5, 2 RBIs) hit his 22nd homer, 2nd homer in the row and Bell said, “If we’re doing this like the 90s, I saved you,” but the Pirates couldn’t be reached for comment, in hiding, wearing a puffy shirt. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?