Steals

Smokey

Stolen Goods and Where to Find Them

March 2, 2018 | 2018 Fantasy Baseball, Steals | 13 Comments

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Late steals, or “cheeky swipes” as they call it across the ocean, are sometimes hard to find late in drafts. Well not hard to find just takes some digging and speculation.  The stolen base stat is a precipitously dying stat.  I mean, why steal a base when you can just hit a homerun?  Or that is the growing trend of the baseball thievery…  Last year 83 players stole 10 or more bases.  That number hasn’t really differed much in the last few years, the high in 2015 and the low being in 2016 of 79.  So while overall steals are down, the number in between the leader and the low end is just increasing in smaller increments.  So with the SAGNOF theory, saves and steals are the afterthought come draft day.  Not completely forgotten about or disregarded.  Just valued at a lower premium based on so many players being low category contributors across the board.  Sneak steals on draft day and getting the most out of your squeeze per investment into draft picks is the name of the game.  Paying a premium for the big hitting steals guys like Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon and obvious top-5 overall pick in Trea Turner are all well and good, but at what cost in relation to their draft pick?  So the helpfulness of this post is to look at value according to ADP and the steals value the will give our team come opening day in the counting stat department.  Most of the players with steal appeal are MI eligible and on draft day, if you miss out early, it seems like the best place to look for straight SAGNOF satisfaction.

Here is a table of steals, caught stealing, and total steals across all of the MLB for the last five years so you didn’t think I was lying to you about the accumulation factors with SB’s…

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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Smokey

SAGNOF Report: Sore Diorama

September 19, 2017 | 2017 Fantasy Baseball, Closers, Steals | 1 Comment

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Wanna take a guess at who the title is?  Anagrams are fun, and by fun, I mean about as fun as going to a baseball game and staying sober.  Since that first sentence merely took eight seconds to read, I would assume that your guess of Fernando Valenzuela was wrong.  The real answer is Amed Rosario.  I could have went with endless possibilities, but a “sore diorama” sounds like a science fair experiment gone wrong.  So onto the SAGNOF usefulness for the man that could have been “armoire soda,” but alas the diorama wins.  Over the last 15 games with the Mets on coast mode to losing, the question is: are they in a coasting mode for losing and futility?  Anyways, over his last 15 games, he has a .364 batting average, a .391 OBP, 7 runs, and the all important 3 steals.  He never exuded elite-type speed in the minors, maxing out at 19 across two levels this year and last.  So the speed could be blossoming like the ability to make pumpkin spice anything nowadays and have lonely single people furnish an entire apartment with it. With the season less than two weeks from finish, look high, look low, look Amed Rosario.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
Smokey

SAGNOF Report: Preseason Multi-Position Eligibility Love

January 19, 2017 | 2017 Fantasy Baseball, 2017 SAGNOF, Steals | 16 Comments

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To be a follow up on Grey’s post months or weeks ago, Position Eligiblity can be a sexual and quite tantalizing thing, especially when it correlates into what I am going to talk about.  So taking from the list that he concocted and then applying it to mine, and voila! Your needs as it relates to SAGNOF are fulfilled!  The “S” that we’re referring to this time out though is steals.  For those new to the term, get familiar, as it means “Saves (and Steals) Ain’t Got No Face”.  Because in reality it is basically a 2 AM lights come on picking fest, and whomever gathers you the stat is good enough.  Just gotta be fast to the waivers or some other speed miner will scoop them up.  So now back to how speed and multi-eligibility is a fantasy boon to your usability for them come draft time.  Granted, it is way early to start looking at trends and expert advise on the matter because, well, it is way too early.  I just said that, making me say stuff twice.  So I have scoured what information I have gathered and used my own super secret rankings in seeing who falls where on draft day, has multiple positions, and can be an asset in the steals department.  I personally like reserving one to two spots on my roster, taking in mind the multi-positional speed guys.  They fill in the spots of the MI, sometimes CI, and definitely the Util spot.  Steals can get scarce later in drafts, but we here at the “Razz Central speed and Saves Department” don’t care.  It don’t got no face, or an English degree in how to say that in a way that sounds logical without double negatives.  So to keep pace with what’s going down as I awake from my winter’s hibernation, speed and multiple position eligibility and some savings on draft day is what it’s all about to be about!

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
Smokey

SAGNOF Report: Store Closing At The SAGNOF Store

September 26, 2016 | 2016 Fantasy Baseball, Closers, Steals | 6 Comments

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On Saturday, we closed down the Holds store, although will still field some inventory questions that some may have.  Today is the last day only for my weekly advisory role in the cheap saves/steals-AGNOF type stuff.  This year was fun doing this post, it incorporated something I already covered here at Razznation and mixed it with some track and field with bats.  This year, I covered everything from the decline of stolen bases as a whole stat, the decline of the elusive fantasy 20/20 players, pitching metrics of stolen bases allowed, and even some catching metrics.  Wrap all that up and after I am done patting myself on my own back with my baby T-rex arms, I think I did an okay job for someone thrown to the fantasy wolves of conveying good info.  Some will disagree, others will hide in the shadows with their slings and arrows, but I am satisfied.  I stole Grey’s journal and he said it on three separate occasions that he thinks my penmanship in regards to SAGNOF is worthy of a cookie or something like that.  I was too teary eyed to actually read it.  So with just over one week to play, it is an “all hands on deck” affair for saves, stolen bases, or hell, even at-bats from non contending teams.  So when searching for moves to make and not make use the first instinct and ignore the other rules like don’t get high on you’re own supply stuff.  You know the Biggie song, so just ignore those and go with common sense.  As always, it has been my pleasure and good luck the last week of the year. Cheers!

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
Smokey

SAGNOF Report: Stealing For The Future

September 19, 2016 | 2016 Fantasy Baseball, Steals | 6 Comments

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It’s never too late to start talking about next year, is it?  Well, that is the direction I am heading.  I don’t know if anyone has noticed, but second base, and for that matter middle infield, is going to be an interesting position come draft time or even for some keepers.  This is the first time in a few years that there will be a dearth of players with a value at the position, so I am personally sorta excited, about as excited as getting a onion ring in my french fry order.  The middle rounds for these second base eligible guys is going to be an interesting pecking order of who covets who more, and what we have seen this year steers them.  Now, this is a steals post and most of the guys I am talking about are going to have value there and in some ancillary stat contributions, I am not talking about the over-drafting of Brian Dozier, and to some extent, Robbie Cano.  Steals only guys, they in this case, have faces until at least your draft or keepers are pot committed. So this week, I am looking at some second sackers that will shine for you next year based on the second half stats.  For giggles afterwards, since the season isn’t over, some two-week guys that will help you down the stretch and of course some save stealers…

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
Smokey

SAGNOF Report: Don’t Stop Relieving

September 12, 2016 | 2016 Fantasy Baseball, Closers, Middle Relievers, Steals | 10 Comments

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Yeah, it is sort of a play on words for the band Journey, so what?  The “so what” is that if you ever want a whole-hearted laugh to yourself, go watch Steve Perry sing the seventh inning stretch.  It is fitting because the postseason save aftermath that is happening is coming from San Francisco, the home of the band Journey.  See what I did there…? A huge cartwheel.  The removal of Santiago Casilla, because he was a little save chilly has thrown the usual or at least semi-stable job into a committee situation.  Never fun for anyone.  Hunter Strickland got the first save chance post Casilla castaway.  Bochy is a finicky beast, if he was a cat owner, never married, and possible a 50year-old scorned woman, it would make sense, but he isn’t, he is a manager that flies by the beat of his own drum.  I usually have dynamite steals info, but since this happened in between my closer/reliever post on Saturday, you get a double dip of save-ness.  The adds for me are Strickland, Romo, Cory Gearrin, a hold on Casilla and unless the inning is straight LOOGY’d up, Javier Lopez could be a factor.  That is how I see the saves getting divvied up.  That is a cavalcade of names to chase for saves, but if you wanna bank on one guy getting a mass majority I would look for Hunter to be that guy.  So continuing on with the S part of the AGNOF, let’s see what has happened around the baseball fantasy universe over the past week in thievery.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
Smokey

SAGNOF Report: Dyson Sucks Up Bags

September 5, 2016 | 2016 Fantasy Baseball, Closers, Steals | 8 Comments

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The Royals are fun, no gimmick team to watch.  They aren’t really mashers, and they aren’t really a base-to-base team.  They are a cross of both, and masters of none kinda thing.  With the recent injury to Cain, who has been nursing a wrist injury, Jarrod Dyson has found himself a regular seat at the big boy table.  He always had the ability to steal bases, and by what we are witnessing as of late, it is that if given the opportunity for regular at-bats those SB numbers could blossom into something actually useful.  Over the last 30 days, he has more at-bats than any other 30-day span this year and the SB tally is a complete reflection of it.  He had 13 steals in the first half in 172 plate appearances, and in the second half, with more starts, he has 12 in 95,  The falloff in production, who could expect a lot from Paulo Orlando and the injury to Cain, seem to have cemented him in the top of the lineup for at least the next few games.  If nothing else, he is a pinch-run threat and with 25 total steals to date, could be an asset for a spot play down the stretch as we should be maximizing every angle or roster spot possible.  Available in 94% of RCL leagues and currently not just rewarding with steals, as he has 4 runs and 3 RBI’s over his last seven.  Not a true one-trick pony, sorta like the Royals.  Let’s see what else is on the get down with the Saves/Steals Ain’t Got No Face department…

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
Smokey

SAGNOF Report: Turning The Trea Turner

August 29, 2016 | 2016 Fantasy Baseball, Closers, Steals | 6 Comments

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He was well hyped in advance of his final promotion, so much so that Prospector Ralph’s pleated khakis looked like a circus tent. To his benefit, Trea Turner deserved the hype in preseason, he had the youthful vigor and the stats to back it up.  Alas, he wasn’t ever promoted and we played the waiting game while cursing the very existence of Danny Espinosa.  Then he got promoted and it was for a two game stint, sadness for all parties involved.  So the waiting continued, and what we were so patiently awaiting for has been a 39-game stretch by the youngin that has him slashing .341/.366/.548, good for .914 OPS.  To me, this is going to be one of the lads next year that is completely over-drafted and at the same time under-drafted, but next year is next year.  What we want from him is everyday line-up ability and to continue to be the steal every fourth time on base and 7-over-the-last-15 type of hitter.  That is impressive in itself, now take the fact that he is in a stacked RBI producing line-up and over the last 30 games or so could be a top 2-3 option at his position adding his speed into the equation.  His 26 runs scored over the last 30 games played trails only Bryant, Blackmon, Dahl and Brian Dozier. He still needs to learn how to take a walk, but even at less then 3%, his OBP is sexy.  I can keep spewing details that you can just easily look up yourself, but it’s fun to point out how good someone is now and will be next year.  So SAGNOF away, and if by some oddity of the world he is available, go say hi and invite him on your roster.  Be weary that rosters expand midweek and some situations will change for some teams out of the race…

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
Smokey

SAGNOF Report: Neon Keon

August 22, 2016 | 2016 Fantasy Baseball, Closers, Steals | 12 Comments

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I love this time of the year, the opportunities for fleeting teams to make a splash fantasy wise gets really fun.  Guys pop up here there and everywheres.  Young guys looking to plant the next year seed in their clubs minds is a great thing for all of us.  This week, we focus on the go-go Brewers.  Yeah… them.   My apologies to the 50’s White Sox, but there wasn’t fantasy back then or I would be waxing poetic about Hall of Famer Luis Aparicio.  Alas, a different era and a completely different town.  Same like for beer, which automatically makes me a fan of either.  So we shine the LED spotlight this week on Keon Broxton.  The evictor of everything Niewenhuis. Over the past 14 days of games, he is flashing an OBP of .447, with 8 steals and an almost crazy 19% BB rate.  Those are all things we look at from a straight SAGNOF contributor, but throw in the .320 batting average and a run every 6.5 plate appearances and he is a swoon for the stretch run of cheapie SB’s.  Best part is he has only gotten two games off this month, minus the PH appearances for one quality AB in the stat column.  Ownership is the key here, and he is being carried in just over 16% of ESPN RCL leagues, That, my friends, is probably a tad low for the ones surfing for pre-September goodies.  The Brewers are most likely going to give him the go for the final 40 games, which should net him 130-140 at bats.   So go use those stimulating numbers I gave above and extrapolate those over those games.  If all stays the same, he should get you 10-12 Sb’s and 15-18 runs.  Good for a regular team not a team cruising 20 games under .500.  Lets see what else is going down in the world of cheap SAGNOF-dom…

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Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
Smokey

SAGNOF Report: Jose’s On A Vacation 90 Feet Away

August 15, 2016 | 2016 Fantasy Baseball, Closers, Middle Relievers, Steals | 15 Comments

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Come on in and talk it over.  So many the Erie warriors would want to say, but I think the platoon is very much over.  So Jose Ramirez has embedded himself in the land where former Chisenhall’s roamed.  Who, by happenstance, is playing here, there, and most left of nowhere… which is left field.  Jose is getting all the good spot-stuff you need for a guy to be rostered, and I am not just referencing the SAGNOF love.  He is hitting .431 over the last 15 games with 10 RBI’s 15 runs scored, 4 home runs, and the salt on the rim of the margarita glass is 6 steals.  If you wanna lump in the fact that he is eligible in most formats at four positions…  This is Hernan part deux the redux of multi-eligible position players with Latino descent showing out.  He is currently, over the last 15 games, in the top-2 of all players in the ESPN database.  Only Mr. Blackmon can hold sway over him.  Now the ownership has spiked and he is currently in the 80’s, but hey, some leagues are dumb and slow, so just in case, he is there, which he shouldn’t be (just check). Worse comes to worse, he makes for an interesting guy to trade for down the stretch because his name isn’t sexy and could probably be involved with a bigger name with some draw.  SAGNOF report is incoming with some players to look at and some saves ups and downs from the three days that you missed me so…

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
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