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Lance

McMahon Isn’t Hitting Fastballs and I Don’t Care

August 20, 2018 | 2018 Fantasy Baseball | 3 Comments

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A prospect who will play his home games at Coors Field with formidable ISO numbers in the minor leagues? Sign me up. Sign everybody up.

It was easy to buy in, but McMahon hasn’t lived up to the hype.

With Rockies prospects in particular, evaluation is difficult. At nearly every level of the Rockies minor league system there is a park that heavily inflates home runs for a particular handedness according to Stat Corner. McCormick Field of the Asheville Tourists is advantageous for left-handed bats. The Hangar of the Lancaster Jethawks is one the most home run-inflating parks in the minors for either handedness of hitter. Dunkin’ Donuts Park for the Hartford Yard Goats is great for right-handed bats. Isotopes Park of the Albuquerque Isotopes is in the Pacific Coast League, which is all you really need to know. Memorial Stadium of the Boise Hawks is neutral for home runs, yet my conversations with an individual in their media department gave me the perspective that even in Boise, balls do carry.

This makes live looks at McMahon essentially to fully understanding the level he is playing at and what he projects to be. The funny thing is that I got live looks at McMahon in Double-A when the Yard Goats were homeless, playing an entire season on the road despite a few games in Norwich, CT.  I bought fully bought in at the time, but I may have been overzealous.

McMahon graded out as a 60 raw power bat with discipline that miraculously improved as he graduated through the minors. His swing has always been silky smooth, even with its length. A strikeout rate around 20 percent now feels like it will take some work rather than the 50th-percentile outcome it once felt projected to be. The hype around McMahon decayed because he couldn’t steal consistent playing time in 2017, ending up with only 24 plate appearances after the Rockies signed Ian Desmond to play a mix of first base and outfield. I tend to defer to organizational assessments of players when a signing blocks a prospect the industry determines “ready.” (This goes back to how important it is to refrain from aggressive stat-sheet scouting with Rockies prospects). The Rockies didn’t think McMahon was ready last season and they were probably right, even if the Desmond contract looks terrible at the moment. This season has been much of the same with small windows of playing time starting to shape the road ahead.

With those small windows McMahon has developed… in weird ways.

Each of the last two seasons in the minor leagues, McMahon has struggled versus left-handed pitching. This season has been oddly different.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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Smokey

Bullpen Report: Thanks For The Memories

August 20, 2018 | 2018 Fantasy Baseball, Closers, Middle Relievers | 40 Comments

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This post won’t be much about bullpens this week, unfortunately.  So for those of you that are greedy for fantasy bullpen goodness, this life is not up your alley. This post is more about a goodbye. That goodbye is from me to all the avid Razzball readers and followers. This is my final post across all formats on this site as I retire from writing. It has been nine years and close to 900 posts since Grey picked me up from my last day at the “College of Fantasy Baseball”, which he jokes is in Charleston, South Carolina. Funny part of that whole story line is I actually went to COC.  Funny part of irony is the irony itself!  So thank you Grey for giving me a chance to wax poetic in a style of my own for as long as I have, cheers. To the friends I have made here along the way… you know who you are and you have my number.  And a special thanks to the most important of all fantasy people, you, the readers. Especially the Razzball readers, because you are all cut from a different cloth. Sharpest, smartest bunch of nerds I have ever had the company of being in an imaginary room with. So I leave you with the finality of the bullpen reports, something I myself took pride in bringing you.  Thanks for everything Razz-verse!  I’ll be around and about on Twitter if you need me @FPL_MMOP so feel free to say hi or send me nudes.  So here it is folks, the haves and the holds from me for the last time.  The pleasure has been all mine. Cheers!

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
Butters

Draft: Wheeler Dealer

August 20, 2018 | 2018 Fantasy Baseball, DFS, Draft | Leave a comment

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Wheeler dealer: the big man who makes things run (says a handy Google search. What the hell did we do before Google? Lived in ignorance, that’s what). Of course I’m hoping that Zach Wheeler makes your DFS team run on Draft.com today, not the Giants’ hitters. But over the last month, he’s been wheelin’ and dealin’, giving you innings and K’s, so I fully expect that to continue against the Giants, whose offense has been anything but giant. You may not be looking at a win, as the Mets have offensive struggles of their own, but he should have no trouble mowing down the Giants bats. Let’s take a look at who else is out there.

New to Draft? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
Grey

White Sox Try To Stop The Bleeding By Inserting Kopech

August 20, 2018 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 388 Comments

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Guess I pointed you to the wrong White Sox prospect in Friday’s Buy.  Hahaha, no.  I didn’t.  I pointed you to a top hitting prospect that can help you this year.  Michael Kopech is a rookie pitcher.  A boneheaded one.  He used to date the daughter of the crazy white lady from The Real Housewives of Atlanta, then he started that girl from Riverdale, and I guess when I say Kopech is boneheaded, I should explain I wouldn’t mind boneheading like him.  Yo dude is a baller!  He’s also legit dopey.  At one point, he broke his hand by punching his teammate.  This guy has years of ridiculousness headed our way, and we should be grateful for that.  As grateful because he’s the top pitching prospect on Prospect Ralph’s top 500 fantasy baseball prospects, and PR’s said, “Kopech is in my opinion the top ‘fantasy baseball’ pitching prospect in the game. What I mean by that is, on, say, a mainstream list (see: BA, BP, BABP, Fangraphs, etc.) they’ll focus more on the risk vs. upside balance.  Me, I’m going upside, as you always should with pitching prospects in fantasy.  Kopech has the potential to lead MLB in strikeouts one day, with his plus-plus triple digit fastball that runs in on righties, a plus slider that flashes plus-plus at times, and an improving changeup. Kopech has all-world stuff, unlike Grey who has all-stupid stuff.”  What the hell, brah?!  Real world comparison, Kopech is Syndergaard with command issues right now, but those could clear up quickly; he’s only 22.  He’s a grab in all leagues, but as I said in the opening, rookie pitchers provide headaches, so expectations in Czech.  (Damn, should’ve never bought that discounted Siri.)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Psyche!  Before we get into the roundup, just wanted to point out our fantasy football leagues are currently signing up, you have a one in three shot of winning $250 (odds may vary depending on if you’re calculating odds correctly.)  Anyway II, the roundup:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
       
Dokken

Top 100 Starting Pitchers, Week 21: I’ll Die On This Cahill

August 19, 2018 | 2018 Fantasy Baseball, Top 100 Starting Pitchers | 17 Comments

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I typically come in here flinging jokes and happiness around like a monkey with his poo, but this week I’m distraught. This list is decimated. As most of you know by now, I don’t rank injured players, and with that angle there are plenty of shlubs at the back end of the list that are barely rosterable even in deep mixers. At this point, I can’t even just say that about the back end. The grossness keeps rising. This week alone we’ve lost (take a biiiiig breath): Chris Sale, Trevor Bauer, James Paxton, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda (to the pen), Tyler Skaggs, Jeremy Hellickson, Dereck Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, Mike Montgomery, and Carlos Martinez (to the pen like Maeda). To make matters worse, we are approaching September when virtually no one is placed on the DL – they just get skipped. That reminds me of what Big Pun’s catchphrase would be if he were a pitcher; instead of “I ain’t a player I just crush a lot” he would tell folks “I ain’t on the DL I just get skipped a lot”. Catchy tune. So anyway, it’s pretty hard to trust anyone on this list beyond the top 15, and I just can’t remember a year when pitching was this bad. But we will not go quietly into the night. We will not vanish without a fight. We’re going to live on. We’re going to survive! Today we celebrate our Independence Day!!

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
Paul "The" Martian

FAAB Five: *Insert Corn ‘Cobb’ Pun Here*

August 19, 2018 | 2018 Fantasy Baseball, 2018 Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell | 1 Comment

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The first two recommendations this week may seem slightly dull, but bear with me. Cory Spangenberg (1% FAAB) and Kolten Wong (1% FAAB) are producing two of the most exciting plate discipline numbers over the past 14 days. Spangenberg is known for chasing at pitches, striking out, and never fulfilling his power/speed upside. Wong is relatively the same player except for his plate discipline, which was always slightly above average. That small edge Wong had in patience is now becoming extreme with the 1.27 BB:K ratio he’s posting over the past fortnight.

Spangenberg is still striking out a quarter of the time, but it now comes with a chase% that is decreasing significantly. He is showing patience that may not be permanent. However, at this time in the fantasy season, we are trying to predict hot streaks before they happen. Spangenberg is walking about 20% of the time which shows a clear distinction from his past samples. He must be changing his approach to stay alive within the MLB, and this could be one of the last chances he has for everyday playing time. Saving FAAB on players before they take off is a key when the budget begins to dwindle in the latter months of the season. These two players are on hot streaks that will only enhance fantasy rosters with a few more counting stats.

(Post Article EDIT: Monitor the Kolten Wong injury situation that cropped up Sunday, 8/19)

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
WildThing

Draft: Oh so Clev(ing)er

August 19, 2018 | 2018 Fantasy Baseball, DFS, Draft | Leave a comment

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Fantasy baseball can be cruel! One minute, Chris Sale is sitting there as a great first-round choice; the next, the fantasy baseball gods — along with the Red Sox long-term taking-it-easy schedule due to their stranglehold on the AL East — land Sale on the DL.  In his stead there is a savior, however, and his name is not who you might expect.  Mike Clevinger is number 1 on Streamonator, above such luminaries as Verlander, Greinke and Kershaw, for a very good reason.  He’s facing the lowly Baltimore Orioles at home; they hit him to only a .132 batting average with a .408 OPS.  Keep your faith in those long, flowing locks and roll to a win.  Now let’s look at a few more early-, middle- and late-round picks for your Draft…drafts!

New to Draft? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care!

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
Ralph Lifshitz

Minor League Update: Introducing Brujan Da 5’9

August 19, 2018 | 2018 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 10 Comments

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Piece by piece, pick by pick, signing by signing the Tampa Bay Rays have quietly built the best farm system in baseball. Stocked at all levels with players of all types. This balanced blend of pitching and hitting, power and speed, big stuff guys and pitchability types. There’s no shortage of prospects to discuss on the Rays farm. While much of the recent discussion and helium has followed wunderkind Wander Franco and his assault on the Appy League. He’s not the hottest player in the Tampa system at the moment. That honor belongs to recently promoted second baseman Vidal Brujan. The 20 year old switch-hitter is a contact machine, showing an uncanny ability to get his bat on balls in all quadrants of the zone. With a mature approach at the plate, it’s apparent right away that Brujan has a plan. His ability to recognize and make in swing adjustments is rare. When I caught the spark-plug (coded short person language) in the New York-Penn League last year with Hudson Valley, he stuck out like a green hat with an orange bill. Rarely do you see a player this athletic in short season ball, that seemingly has the foundations figured out. But there was Brujan. He’s never going to be an impactful power hitter, but his swing does have loft, and he has the ability to drive balls to the gaps. Quick hands generate his plus bat speed, but it’s his laid back approach, and ability to make split second reads on spin that really set him apart. That’s before we even talk about his speed and base-running ability. He’s quick, getting clocked at 4.26 on the turn by Jason Woodell just weeks ago. He uses that speed too, wrecking havoc this season between the Midwest League and Florida State League, stealing 49 bases on 67 attempts. I envision a top of the order table setter with 25+ steals, a high batting average and 12-15 homers, but 30+ doubles. If I was in a dynasty that used points scoring, I’d make it a priority to add Brujan. Through 12 games in High-A he’s slashing .409/.519/.614 with a homer and 6 steals. Go add Brujan da 5’9 (that’s his listed height) before he goes BOOM!

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
Dokken

Two Startapalooza, Week 21: The Titanic Vs. A Strasburg

August 18, 2018 | 2018 Fantasy Baseball, Two Start Fantasy Starters | 9 Comments

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With the season winding down (especially for those in H2H leagues) streaming the right matchups are more important than ever. Fortunately, we have more data now than at any point in the season to help us choose wisely. Be Indiana Jones. Choose the right chalice.

Tier 1 is a trio of aces you don’t need me to tell you to start, but Tier 2 has some interesting names in Zack Wheeler and Stephen Strasburg. Wheeler has been incredible since the start of June, with a 2.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The Giants are susceptible to righties, which is enough to get me to start him everywhere. Tier 3 has some great options as well, like a matchup-based Tanaka, a surging Rodon (which sounds like a euphemism but I swear it’s not), and a, um, foodstuff exporting Holland? Listen, it’s late in the season. Give me a break. Tier 4 is honestly pretty gross, with the likes of Chase Anderson, Shane Bieber, and Mike Fiers that are guys that you really can’t rely on to not destroy your week. Tier 5 makes you cringe, like usual, although Brett Anderson is at least coming off a strong start. There is a decent enough chance he strikes out zero batters though, which you might say limits his upside.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
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