Stolen Base Success Rates Against Starting Pitchers

Updated: 2018-06-19 08:55:21 AM EST | Maintained by

All active starting pitchers with stats from 2014 through 2017 season to date.

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Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output!

# Name Team L/R IP (2014-2017) SB (2014-2017) CS (2014-2017) SB Suc% (2014-2017) SB / Est SB Opp IP by SB (2014-2017) IP by SB Att (2014-2017)
Noah Syndergaard NYM R 364 65 12 84 0.200 5.6 4.7
Tyson Ross SD R 446 78 23 77 0.151 5.7 4.4
Trevor Cahill OAK R 304 50 9 85 0.127 6.1 5.1
Dylan Covey CHW R 70 10 1 91 0.103 7.0 6.4
Joe Biagini TOR R 187 26 3 90 0.122 7.2 6.4
Steven Matz NYM L 234 32 6 84 0.126 7.3 6.2
Jacob Turner DET R 177 24 4 86 0.102 7.4 6.3
Jon Lester CHC L 808 107 41 72 0.141 7.5 5.5
Andrew Triggs OAK R 121 16 5 76 0.121 7.6 5.8
Jimmy Nelson MIL R 601 79 17 82 0.110 7.6 6.3
Alex Meyer LAA R 95 12 2 86 0.097 7.9 6.8
Jake Arrieta PHI R 751 93 18 84 0.141 8.1 6.8
Gerrit Cole HOU R 665 81 19 81 0.118 8.2 6.6
Jered Weaver SD R 592 72 23 76 0.111 8.2 6.2
Sam Gaviglio TOR R 74 9 3 75 0.105 8.2 6.2
Tyler Skaggs LAA L 248 29 8 78 0.104 8.5 6.7
Anibal Sanchez ATL R 541 63 22 74 0.105 8.6 6.4
Rafael Montero NYM R 192 22 4 85 0.079 8.7 7.4
Mark Leiter Jr. PHI R 90 10 2 83 0.095 9.0 7.5
J.C. Ramirez LAA R 250 27 10 73 0.096 9.2 6.7
Carlos Rodon CHW L 373 39 8 83 0.087 9.6 7.9
Matt Cain SF R 364 37 15 71 0.081 9.8 7.0
Yu Darvish CHC R 431 43 2 96 0.100 10.0 9.6
Jameson Taillon PIT R 237 23 2 92 0.089 10.3 9.5
Cole Hamels TEX L 766 74 23 76 0.093 10.3 7.9
Brandon McCarthy ATL R 355 34 11 76 0.092 10.4 7.9
Daniel Norris DET L 237 22 10 69 0.077 10.8 7.4
Anthony DeSclafani CIN R 341 31 9 78 0.085 11.0 8.5
Jason Hammel KC R 694 62 11 85 0.086 11.2 9.5
Aaron Nola PHI R 357 31 6 84 0.085 11.5 9.6
Edwin Jackson WSH R 356 30 9 77 0.066 11.9 9.1
Francisco Liriano DET L 609 50 11 82 0.069 12.2 10.0
Edinson Volquez TEX R 674 55 22 71 0.069 12.3 8.8
Chad Bell ATL L 62 5 2 71 0.053 12.4 8.9
Shelby Miller ARI R 511 41 17 71 0.071 12.5 8.8
Julio Teheran ATL R 798 63 20 76 0.078 12.7 9.6
Tyler Matzek CHW L 140 11 4 73 0.063 12.7 9.3
Rich Hill LAD L 280 22 9 71 0.084 12.7 9.0
Hector Santiago CHW L 560 44 24 65 0.068 12.7 8.2
Chris Bassitt OAK R 144 11 5 69 0.061 13.1 9.0
Taijuan Walker ARI R 499 38 6 86 0.071 13.1 11.3
Jaime Garcia TOR L 502 38 13 75 0.071 13.2 9.8
Felix Hernandez SEA R 677 51 15 77 0.078 13.3 10.3
Jon Gray COL R 319 24 6 80 0.067 13.3 10.6
Alex Cobb BAL R 367 27 7 79 0.072 13.6 10.8
Kyle Hendricks CHC R 590 43 16 73 0.079 13.7 10.0
Tommy Milone WSH L 364 26 8 76 0.062 14.0 10.7
Charlie Morton HOU R 450 32 6 84 0.062 14.1 11.8
Aaron Sanchez TOR R 353 25 11 69 0.069 14.1 9.8
A.J. Cole NYY R 100 7 2 78 0.057 14.2 11.1
Mike Fiers DET R 574 40 16 71 0.064 14.3 10.2
Ryan Vogelsong SF R 402 28 8 78 0.059 14.4 11.2
Sergio Romo TB R 201 14 8 64 0.080 14.4 9.1
Andrew Cashner BAL R 606 42 23 65 0.060 14.4 9.3
Jordan Lyles SD R 304 21 2 91 0.053 14.5 13.2
Ross Stripling LAD R 174 12 1 92 0.069 14.5 13.4
Jason Vargas NYM L 421 29 11 72 0.064 14.5 10.5
Ivan Nova PIT R 464 31 8 79 0.061 15.0 11.9
Jerad Eickhoff PHI R 376 25 11 69 0.063 15.1 10.5
Homer Bailey CIN R 271 18 8 69 0.053 15.1 10.4
James Shields CHW R 728 48 16 75 0.057 15.2 11.4
Robbie Ray ARI L 493 32 15 68 0.056 15.4 10.5
Tyler Anderson COL L 200 13 3 81 0.061 15.4 12.5
Matt Shoemaker LAA R 508 33 15 69 0.065 15.4 10.6
Luis Perdomo SD R 310 20 4 83 0.050 15.5 12.9
Matt Wisler ATL R 298 19 2 90 0.054 15.7 14.2
Dan Straily MIA R 441 28 14 67 0.058 15.8 10.5
Jharel Cotton OAK R 158 10 6 62 0.057 15.8 9.9
Zach Eflin PHI R 127 8 3 73 0.055 15.9 11.6
Brett Anderson OAK L 290 18 13 58 0.053 16.1 9.4
Dinelson Lamet SD R 114 7 3 70 0.056 16.3 11.4
Michael Pineda MIN R 509 31 24 56 0.062 16.4 9.3
Marco Estrada TOR R 694 42 17 71 0.061 16.5 11.8
Nick Pivetta PHI R 133 8 5 62 0.047 16.6 10.2
Jeff Samardzija SF R 844 50 25 67 0.061 16.9 11.3
Matt Harvey CIN R 374 22 7 76 0.054 17.0 12.9
Rick Porcello BOS R 803 47 19 71 0.057 17.1 12.2
Mike Minor TEX L 222 13 2 87 0.054 17.1 14.8
Gio Gonzalez WSH L 713 41 22 65 0.053 17.4 11.3
Chad Kuhl PIT R 228 13 5 72 0.047 17.5 12.7
Trevor Bauer CLE R 695 39 24 62 0.049 17.8 11.0
Jesse Hahn KC R 286 16 6 73 0.049 17.8 13.0
Miguel Gonzalez CHW R 595 33 6 85 0.049 18.0 15.2
Zack Wheeler NYM R 271 15 5 75 0.045 18.1 13.6
Drew Pomeranz BOS L 499 27 14 66 0.052 18.5 12.2
Dylan Bundy BAL R 279 15 10 60 0.050 18.6 11.2
Jeremy Hellickson WSH R 563 30 9 77 0.050 18.8 14.4
Lucas Sims ATL R 57 3 5 38 0.040 19.1 7.2
Mike Clevinger CLE R 174 9 10 47 0.045 19.4 9.2
Jacob deGrom NYM R 680 35 17 67 0.056 19.4 13.1
Alec Asher MIL R 117 6 2 75 0.043 19.4 14.6
Jerome Williams STL R 253 13 3 81 0.041 19.5 15.8
Kyle Freeland COL L 156 8 3 73 0.040 19.5 14.2
Kendall Graveman OAK R 411 21 8 72 0.045 19.6 14.2
Marcus Stroman TOR R 563 28 12 70 0.048 20.1 14.1
Chris Archer TB R 809 40 20 67 0.048 20.2 13.5
Jose Berrios MIN R 204 10 4 71 0.039 20.4 14.5
Corey Kluber CLE R 876 43 28 61 0.057 20.4 12.3
Ian Kennedy KC R 719 35 28 56 0.045 20.5 11.4
Tanner Roark WSH R 701 34 21 62 0.047 20.6 12.7
Mike Leake SEA R 769 37 14 73 0.047 20.8 15.1
Ross Detwiler OAK L 170 8 7 53 0.033 21.2 11.3
Carlos Carrasco CLE R 664 31 25 55 0.052 21.4 11.9
Yovani Gallardo TEX R 625 29 17 63 0.039 21.5 13.6
Blake Snell TB L 218 10 5 67 0.038 21.8 14.5
Garrett Richards LAA R 438 20 9 69 0.047 21.9 15.1
Erasmo Ramirez SEA R 460 21 7 75 0.044 21.9 16.4
Clayton Richard SD L 307 14 11 56 0.036 21.9 12.3
James Paxton SEA L 398 18 6 75 0.044 22.1 16.6
Jose Quintana CHC L 803 36 20 64 0.044 22.3 14.3
J.A. Happ TOR L 670 30 13 70 0.043 22.3 15.6
Henderson Alvarez PHI R 224 10 4 71 0.042 22.4 16.0
Chase Anderson MIL R 560 25 17 60 0.042 22.4 13.3
Chris Stratton SF R 68 3 1 75 0.035 22.7 17.0
German Marquez COL R 183 8 5 62 0.037 22.8 14.1
Steven Wright BOS R 274 12 7 63 0.040 22.9 14.4
Austin Bibens-Dirkx TEX R 69 3 0 100 0.038 23.0 23.0
Ervin Santana MIN R 696 30 10 75 0.042 23.2 17.4
Trevor Williams PIT R 163 7 4 64 0.037 23.3 14.8
Kyle Gibson MIN R 679 29 12 71 0.036 23.4 16.6
Seth Lugo NYM R 165 7 3 70 0.040 23.6 16.5
Michael Wacha STL R 592 25 10 71 0.039 23.7 16.9
Kenta Maeda LAD R 310 13 6 68 0.043 23.8 16.3
Mike Foltynewicz ATL R 383 16 9 64 0.034 23.9 15.3
Derek Holland SF L 338 14 9 61 0.033 24.1 14.7
Sonny Gray NYY R 706 29 9 76 0.041 24.3 18.6
Bryan Mitchell SD R 98 4 3 57 0.030 24.5 14.0
Stephen Strasburg WSH R 665 27 15 64 0.045 24.6 15.8
Sean Manaea OAK L 303 12 9 57 0.036 25.2 14.4
Jordan Zimmermann DET R 667 26 17 60 0.037 25.6 15.5
Jake Odorizzi MIN R 668 26 19 58 0.038 25.7 14.8
Justin Verlander HOU R 773 30 15 67 0.040 25.8 17.2
Max Scherzer WSH R 878 34 18 65 0.046 25.8 16.9
Zach Davies MIL R 388 15 13 54 0.036 25.9 13.9
Andrew Heaney LAA L 162 6 1 86 0.034 27.0 23.2
Junior Guerra MIL R 196 7 4 64 0.032 28.0 17.8
Jonathon Niese TEX L 485 17 13 57 0.030 28.6 16.2
Jacob Faria TB R 86 3 4 43 0.034 28.7 12.3
Vince Velasquez PHI R 259 9 11 45 0.030 28.7 12.9
Nick Tepesch TOR R 145 5 6 45 0.028 29.0 13.2
Carlos Martinez STL R 669 23 15 61 0.032 29.1 17.6
Ben Lively PHI R 88 3 2 60 0.030 29.4 17.6
Andrew Moore TB R 59 2 1 67 0.037 29.5 19.7
Kevin Gausman BAL R 592 20 10 67 0.030 29.6 19.7
Robert Stephenson CIN R 121 4 5 44 0.024 30.3 13.5
Chad Bettis COL R 372 12 7 63 0.027 31.0 19.6
Bartolo Colon TEX R 732 23 14 62 0.030 31.8 19.8
Matt Moore TEX L 445 14 10 58 0.026 31.8 18.6
Chris Heston SF R 194 6 7 46 0.025 32.3 14.9
Adalberto Mejia MIN L 100 3 2 60 0.022 33.4 20.1
Christian Bergman SEA R 202 6 4 60 0.025 33.6 20.2
Madison Bumgarner SF L 773 23 22 51 0.034 33.6 17.2
Alex Wood LAD L 574 17 12 59 0.029 33.8 19.8
Chris Sale BOS L 824 24 12 67 0.033 34.3 22.9
Jhoulys Chacin MIL R 414 12 7 63 0.025 34.5 21.8
Mike Montgomery CHC L 320 9 6 60 0.025 35.6 21.3
Ty Blach SF L 180 5 2 71 0.026 36.0 25.7
Luis Severino NYY R 326 9 5 64 0.028 36.3 23.3
Tyler Chatwood CHC R 329 9 12 43 0.023 36.6 15.7
Masahiro Tanaka NYY R 668 18 9 67 0.030 37.1 24.7
Zack Greinke ARI R 786 21 21 50 0.031 37.4 18.7
Vance Worley CIN R 340 9 8 53 0.022 37.8 20.0
Marco Gonzales SEA L 77 2 3 40 0.018 38.7 15.5
Clay Buchholz ARI R 430 11 13 46 0.023 39.1 17.9
Michael Fulmer DET R 323 8 3 73 0.026 40.4 29.4
Adam Wainwright STL R 577 14 7 67 0.023 41.2 27.5
Matthew Boyd DET L 290 7 14 33 0.020 41.4 13.8
Williams Perez CHC R 170 4 0 100 0.018 42.6 42.6
Jeff Hoffman COL R 130 3 0 100 0.018 43.5 43.5
Sal Romano CIN R 87 2 4 33 0.018 43.5 14.5
Wei-Yin Chen MIA L 533 12 3 80 0.023 44.4 35.6
Daniel Gossett OAK R 91 2 2 50 0.017 45.6 22.8
Johnny Cueto SF R 822 18 17 51 0.023 45.7 23.5
Lance McCullers Jr. HOU R 325 7 5 58 0.019 46.4 27.1
Martin Perez TEX L 514 11 12 48 0.018 46.7 22.3
Danny Duffy KC L 612 13 9 59 0.021 47.1 27.8
Clayton Kershaw LAD L 755 16 16 50 0.031 47.2 23.6
Patrick Corbin ARI L 430 9 9 50 0.018 47.8 23.9
Danny Salazar CLE R 535 11 16 41 0.019 48.7 19.8
Jake Junis KC R 98 2 4 33 0.018 49.0 16.3
CC Sabathia NYY L 541 11 7 61 0.018 49.2 30.1
Sean Newcomb ATL L 100 2 1 67 0.014 50.0 33.3
Joe Ross WSH R 255 5 3 62 0.018 51.0 31.9
Brent Suter MIL L 103 2 2 50 0.018 51.4 25.7
David Price BOS L 773 15 10 60 0.021 51.5 30.9
Jose Urena MIA R 315 6 2 75 0.016 52.4 39.3
Blaine Hardy DET L 159 3 1 75 0.016 53.0 39.8
Jarlin Garcia MIA L 53 1 2 33 0.018 53.1 17.7
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA R 539 10 16 38 0.020 53.9 20.7
Wade Miley MIL L 718 13 18 42 0.015 55.2 23.2
Paul Blackburn OAK R 58 1 3 25 0.017 58.2 14.6
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS L 366 6 7 46 0.015 61.0 28.1
Lance Lynn MIN R 565 9 11 45 0.014 62.8 28.3
Zack Godley ARI R 266 4 0 100 0.014 66.6 66.6
Dallas Keuchel HOU L 745 11 7 61 0.016 67.7 41.4
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD L 283 4 2 67 0.013 70.7 47.2
Jordan Montgomery NYY L 155 2 1 67 0.013 77.6 51.7
Joe Musgrove PIT R 171 2 2 50 0.011 85.6 42.8
Luis Castillo CIN R 89 1 0 100 0.012 89.1 89.1
Chris Tillman BAL R 645 7 10 41 0.009 92.2 38.0
Nathan Eovaldi TB R 479 5 9 36 0.009 95.7 34.2
Doug Fister TEX R 537 4 8 33 0.007 134.4 44.8
Wade LeBlanc SEA L 160 1 2 33 0.007 159.7 53.2
Ariel Miranda SEA L 218 1 3 25 0.004 218.0 54.5
Luke Weaver STL R 96 0 3 0 0.000 40.0 32.1
Parker Bridwell LAA R 124 0 3 0 0.000 40.0 41.4

Totals by Left-Handed vs. Right-Handed Starting Pitchers (SPs from 2014-2017)

Download Table as CSV
Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output!

# L/R IP SB CS SB Suc% SB / Est SB Opp IP by SB IP by SB Att
R 58,501 3341 1405 70.4 0.054 17.5 12.3
L 22,832 1082 539 66.7 0.044 21.1 14.1

  1. Count de Monetball says:
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    Great tool rudy! When did you put this up and are you going to do a writeup about it sometime?

    Reply

    • Thanks. I just built it per our SAGNOF guy’s request (Mike). He’ll be referencing in future posts.

      Reply

  2. Alex says:
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    couldn’t help but notice that A.J. Burnett isn’t on the list. any chance this will get fixed before I have to decide whether to play Altuve or Dee Gordon tomorrow?

    Reply

  3. Alex says:
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    and no chris young!

    p.s. love, love, love the tool.

    Reply

  4. Greg says:
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    Not sure if you’re monitoring these comments these days, but it’s H2H playoffs and I want to stream a speedster for Sunday – any chance to add Odrisamer Despaigne, Trevor Bauer, and hector noesi added to the tool?

    Reply

  5. David says:
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    What’s usually the baseline for SB’s against a pitcher…anything over 60 percent is really good? Also, is this tool incorporated into the dfs tool when it mentions a player has .20 percent chance of a stolen base for instance? I assume it takes in rSB values, etc. in deciding the percent…

    Reply

    • @David: i think the league average is something like 70% for SB/SB attempts. But the other factor is that good pitchers will limit the attempts – e.g., a Buehrle or Cueto. I only factor in handedness for SB daily projection as it’s unknown who the catcher is going to be until close to gametime. I would need to do a rather large analysis to figure out exactly how much to credit/blame pitchers vs catchers for SB attempts and SB success rate. Given how small SBs factor into DFS, it hasn’t been an area that I’ve prioritized to date.

      Reply
  6. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Rudy, I love this tool. Questions though:
    Gose is facing Cueto today. He is ranked #236 above (tough to steal upon). Gose gets a .23 for SB in today’s hittertron.
    He faces Volquez on Wed. Volquez is rated #58 above (a much better bet to get a steal). Yet, Gose gets a .23 in Wed. hittertron.
    Why does he have the same likelihood of SB in hittertron, yet widely different in here? This not a factor in hittertron? (but, maybe should be?) (I may be missing something…)

    Reply

    • @Fred Barker: I am only using pitcher hand for SB projections. Have a big analysis in the queue to determine how much to credit/blame pitcher vs catchers for SBs.

      Reply
      • Simply Fred

        Fred Barker says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Cool. Just when one can’t believe the models can get ANY better!

        Reply
  7. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Congrats on moving up the ladder the second half in ‘Perts!

    Hey, I worked this SB chart hard for the last MONTH and got very marginal positive impact. Just my two-bits:
    I would put my development effort in other areas.
    (seems like the base stealers are gonna get em; those who don’t won’t–even against pitchers who give em up)

    Finallly, some extra time to play with the kids!

    Reply

    • @Fred Barker: Thx. Agreed regarding stolen bases. I did incorporate pitcher into the Hittertron SB projections and it seemed to have minor impact overall. I do think it’s most helpful for the handful of pitchers who are awesome/awful at holding guys on. But streaming for SBs is not as enjoyable or lucrative as for HRs.

      Reply

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