Stolen Base Success Rates Against Starting Pitchers

Updated: 2019-07-18 09:55:31 PM EST | Maintained by

All active starting pitchers with stats from 2014 through 2017 season to date.

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Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output!

# Name Team L/R IP (2015-2018) SB (2015-2018) CS (2015-2018) SB Suc% (2015-2018) SB / Est SB Opp IP by SB (2015-2018) IP by SB Att (2015-2018)
Tyler Glasnow TB R 196 45 14 76 0.171 4.4 3.3
Noah Syndergaard NYM R 518 97 15 87 0.201 5.3 4.6
Ryan Borucki TOR L 97 16 3 84 0.150 6.1 5.1
Trevor Cahill LAA R 303 48 12 80 0.134 6.3 5.0
Steven Matz NYM L 388 60 8 88 0.142 6.5 5.7
Cody Reed CIN L 108 15 0 100 0.099 7.2 7.2
Jon Lester CHC L 769 105 45 70 0.138 7.3 5.1
Jimmy Nelson MIL R 532 72 17 81 0.115 7.4 6.0
Tyson Ross DET R 400 53 18 75 0.110 7.5 5.6
Andrew Triggs OAK R 162 21 5 81 0.116 7.7 6.2
Jered Weaver SD R 379 47 18 72 0.108 8.1 5.8
Erick Fedde WSH R 65 8 3 73 0.088 8.2 5.9
Nate Karns BAL R 286 35 8 81 0.108 8.2 6.7
Anibal Sanchez WSH R 552 66 23 74 0.108 8.4 6.2
Yu Darvish CHC R 326 39 3 93 0.118 8.4 7.8
Colin Rea CHC R 134 16 3 84 0.099 8.4 7.1
Lucas Giolito CHW R 240 28 8 78 0.093 8.6 6.7
Carlos Rodon CHW L 494 55 12 82 0.093 9.0 7.4
Dylan Covey CHW R 191 21 3 88 0.085 9.1 8.0
Hector Rondon HOU R 237 26 2 93 0.117 9.1 8.5
Jake Arrieta PHI R 767 84 19 82 0.117 9.1 7.4
J.C. Ramirez LAA R 250 27 10 73 0.096 9.2 6.7
Matt Cain SF R 274 29 10 74 0.080 9.5 7.0
Gerrit Cole HOU R 727 74 19 80 0.103 9.8 7.8
Cole Hamels CHC L 751 74 19 80 0.091 10.2 8.1
Drew Hutchison NYY R 216 21 10 68 0.074 10.3 7.0
Tyler Skaggs LAA L 260 25 5 83 0.082 10.4 8.7
Edinson Volquez TEX R 482 46 15 75 0.079 10.5 7.9
Drew Smyly MIL L 242 23 8 74 0.093 10.5 7.8
Bryan Mitchell SD R 160 15 3 83 0.065 10.7 8.9
Ryne Stanek TB R 86 8 4 67 0.086 10.8 7.2
Yefry Ramirez PIT R 65 6 5 55 0.068 10.8 5.9
Homer Bailey OAK R 231 21 6 78 0.064 11.0 8.6
Julio Teheran ATL R 752 68 21 76 0.086 11.1 8.4
Daniel Norris DET L 275 24 10 71 0.072 11.4 8.1
Aaron Nola PHI R 569 48 11 81 0.089 11.8 9.6
Chad Green NYY R 190 16 9 64 0.099 11.9 7.6
Jameson Taillon PIT R 428 35 5 88 0.079 12.2 10.7
Shelby Miller MIL R 344 28 11 72 0.069 12.3 8.8
Jefry Rodriguez CLE R 52 4 2 67 0.055 13.0 8.7
Hector Santiago CHW L 535 41 20 67 0.064 13.0 8.8
Taijuan Walker ARI R 461 35 6 85 0.071 13.2 11.2
Jordan Lyles PIT R 264 20 4 83 0.059 13.2 11.0
Archie Bradley ARI R 322 24 7 77 0.065 13.4 10.4
Ryan Vogelsong SF R 217 16 2 89 0.059 13.6 12.1
Jason Vargas NYM L 326 24 10 71 0.066 13.6 9.6
Tommy Milone SEA L 272 20 7 74 0.064 13.6 10.1
Jon Gray COL R 491 36 10 78 0.065 13.6 10.7
Aaron Sanchez TOR R 425 31 14 69 0.063 13.7 9.5
Fernando Romero MIN R 55 4 2 67 0.056 13.8 9.2
Mike Fiers OAK R 674 48 18 73 0.065 14.0 10.2
Dylan Bundy BAL R 450 32 15 68 0.064 14.1 9.6
Domingo German NYY R 99 7 0 100 0.060 14.2 14.2
Zach Eflin PHI R 255 18 6 75 0.064 14.2 10.6
Kyle Hendricks CHC R 708 49 16 75 0.074 14.5 10.9
Felix Hernandez SEA R 596 41 11 79 0.061 14.5 11.5
Pablo Lopez MIA R 58 4 1 80 0.062 14.6 11.6
Anthony DeSclafani CIN R 423 29 14 67 0.064 14.6 9.8
Chris Bassitt OAK R 161 11 6 65 0.058 14.7 9.5
Eric Skoglund KC L 88 6 3 67 0.055 14.7 9.8
Matt Shoemaker TOR R 404 27 12 69 0.064 14.9 10.3
Jerad Eickhoff PHI R 376 25 11 69 0.063 15.1 10.5
Brad Peacock HOU R 234 15 3 83 0.063 15.6 13.0
Mike Clevinger CLE R 374 24 13 65 0.061 15.6 10.1
Rich Hill LAD L 407 26 11 70 0.069 15.6 11.0
Steven Brault PIT L 159 10 6 62 0.044 15.9 9.9
Andrew Cashner BOS R 636 40 27 60 0.051 15.9 9.5
Corey Oswalt NYM R 64 4 3 57 0.053 16.0 9.2
Joey Lucchesi SD L 130 8 6 57 0.057 16.2 9.3
Robbie Ray ARI L 587 36 17 68 0.053 16.3 11.1
Michael Pineda MIN R 432 26 20 57 0.057 16.6 9.4
Jeff Samardzija SF R 669 40 20 67 0.059 16.7 11.1
Zack Wheeler NYM R 268 16 3 84 0.055 16.8 14.1
Felix Pena LAA R 135 8 1 89 0.053 16.9 15.0
Edwin Jackson TOR R 308 18 10 64 0.051 17.1 11.0
Tyler Anderson COL L 376 22 6 79 0.055 17.1 13.4
Rick Porcello BOS R 789 46 13 78 0.057 17.2 13.4
David Hess BAL R 103 6 3 67 0.048 17.2 11.5
Ivan Nova CHW R 604 35 10 78 0.054 17.3 13.4
Blake Snell TB L 398 23 9 72 0.056 17.3 12.4
Dan Straily BAL R 511 29 19 60 0.052 17.6 10.7
Mike Minor TEX L 234 13 3 81 0.060 18.0 14.6
Jacob deGrom NYM R 757 42 21 67 0.064 18.0 12.0
Brett Anderson OAK L 327 18 13 58 0.048 18.2 10.5
Chase Anderson MIL R 604 33 23 59 0.052 18.3 10.8
Justin Nicolino MIN L 201 11 3 79 0.045 18.3 14.4
Ryan Yarbrough TB L 147 8 2 80 0.049 18.4 14.7
Matthew Boyd DET L 460 25 16 61 0.048 18.4 11.2
Marco Estrada OAK R 686 37 14 73 0.052 18.5 13.5
Reynaldo Lopez CHW R 279 15 5 75 0.047 18.6 14.0
Sean Newcomb ATL L 264 14 3 82 0.043 18.9 15.5
Matt Harvey LAA R 529 28 10 74 0.049 18.9 13.9
Michael Wacha STL R 569 30 8 79 0.048 19.0 15.0
Marcus Stroman TOR R 534 28 11 72 0.048 19.1 13.7
Gio Gonzalez MIL L 725 38 22 63 0.046 19.1 12.1
Carlos Carrasco CLE R 722 37 25 60 0.056 19.5 11.6
Alex Cobb BAL R 353 18 11 62 0.046 19.6 12.2
Ross Stripling LAD R 296 15 8 65 0.052 19.7 12.9
Tom Koehler LAD R 436 22 15 59 0.041 19.8 11.8
Brad Keller KC R 140 7 4 64 0.046 20.0 12.7
Kendall Graveman CHC R 441 22 11 67 0.043 20.0 13.4
Jake Odorizzi MIN R 664 33 15 69 0.048 20.1 13.8
Robbie Erlin SD L 142 7 3 70 0.057 20.2 14.2
Sean Gilmartin BAL L 102 5 2 71 0.045 20.4 14.6
Jordan Zimmermann DET R 598 29 19 60 0.044 20.6 12.5
Charlie Morton TB R 460 22 5 81 0.043 20.9 17.0
German Marquez COL R 379 18 6 75 0.043 21.0 15.8
Kyle Freeland COL L 358 17 4 81 0.041 21.1 17.1
Jorge Lopez KC R 63 3 2 60 0.036 21.1 12.6
Sal Romano CIN R 232 11 4 73 0.039 21.1 15.5
Chris Archer PIT R 762 36 19 65 0.046 21.2 13.9
Nick Pivetta PHI R 297 14 12 54 0.040 21.2 11.4
Sonny Gray CIN R 617 29 7 81 0.044 21.3 17.1
Tanner Roark CIN R 682 32 23 58 0.044 21.3 12.4
Ross Detwiler CHW L 107 5 5 50 0.030 21.4 10.7
Brian Johnson BOS L 130 6 1 86 0.039 21.7 18.6
Hector Velazquez BOS R 109 5 5 50 0.039 21.8 10.9
Ervin Santana NYM R 525 24 4 86 0.045 21.9 18.7
Drew Pomeranz SF L 504 23 17 57 0.041 21.9 12.6
Corey Kluber CLE R 855 39 26 60 0.055 21.9 13.2
Jose Berrios MIN R 396 18 7 72 0.040 22.0 15.8
Eric Lauer SD L 112 5 2 71 0.034 22.4 16.0
Tyler Chatwood CHC R 408 18 13 58 0.033 22.7 13.2
Steven Wright BOS R 253 11 7 61 0.039 23.0 14.1
Trevor Bauer CLE R 717 31 24 56 0.040 23.1 13.0
Jose Quintana CHC L 777 33 21 61 0.041 23.5 14.4
Jeremy Hellickson WSH R 590 25 8 76 0.041 23.6 17.9
Madison Bumgarner SF L 685 29 12 71 0.047 23.6 16.7
J.A. Happ NYY L 689 29 13 69 0.042 23.8 16.4
Kenta Maeda LAD R 435 18 7 72 0.041 24.2 17.4
Stephen Strasburg WSH R 580 24 14 63 0.045 24.2 15.3
Noe Ramirez LAA R 122 5 1 83 0.035 24.4 20.3
Clayton Richard TOR L 465 19 13 59 0.033 24.5 14.5
Luis Cessa NYY R 150 6 3 67 0.037 25.1 16.7
Jake Faria TB R 151 6 5 55 0.035 25.2 13.7
Trevor Richards MIA R 126 5 4 56 0.033 25.2 14.0
Kevin Gausman ATL R 661 26 10 72 0.035 25.4 18.4
Freddy Peralta MIL R 78 3 1 75 0.037 26.0 19.5
Mike Montgomery KC L 444 17 13 57 0.034 26.1 14.8
Luis Severino NYY R 518 19 10 66 0.038 27.2 17.8
Sean Manaea OAK L 463 17 13 57 0.036 27.2 15.4
Heath Fillmyer KC R 82 3 1 75 0.032 27.4 20.5
Mike Leake SEA R 740 27 15 64 0.035 27.4 17.6
Kyle Gibson MIN R 696 25 12 68 0.030 27.8 18.8
Antonio Senzatela COL R 224 8 1 89 0.032 28.0 24.9
Shane Bieber CLE R 114 4 2 67 0.033 28.6 19.0
Jesse Chavez TEX R 457 16 14 53 0.033 28.6 15.2
Jhoulys Chacin MIL R 543 18 11 62 0.030 30.2 18.7
Max Scherzer WSH R 877 29 10 74 0.042 30.3 22.5
James Paxton NYY L 484 16 7 70 0.034 30.3 21.0
Zach Davies MIL R 454 15 17 47 0.030 30.3 14.2
Nick Tropeano LAA R 182 6 7 46 0.029 30.3 14.0
Mike Foltynewicz ATL R 547 18 10 64 0.029 30.4 19.5
Jakob Junis KC R 275 9 8 53 0.030 30.6 16.2
CC Sabathia NYY L 648 21 11 66 0.029 30.9 20.3
Chris Sale BOS L 808 26 11 70 0.037 31.1 21.8
Garrett Richards SD R 345 11 8 58 0.031 31.4 18.2
Ricky Nolasco ARI R 416 13 14 48 0.028 32.0 15.4
Patrick Corbin WSH L 630 19 11 63 0.028 33.2 21.0
Trevor Williams PIT R 333 10 10 50 0.028 33.3 16.6
Matt Moore DET L 537 16 10 62 0.024 33.6 20.7
Lance Lynn TEX R 518 15 15 50 0.025 34.5 17.3
Marco Gonzales SEA L 209 6 6 50 0.026 34.8 17.4
Masahiro Tanaka NYY R 688 19 10 66 0.030 36.2 23.7
Walker Buehler LAD R 146 4 3 57 0.031 36.6 20.9
Vince Velasquez PHI R 405 11 16 41 0.024 36.8 15.0
Alex Wood CIN L 553 15 10 60 0.026 36.9 22.1
Jonathon Niese TEX L 298 8 7 53 0.022 37.2 19.8
Ty Blach SF L 298 8 5 62 0.024 37.3 23.0
Justin Verlander HOU R 781 20 15 57 0.029 39.0 22.3
Matt Strahm SD L 117 3 4 43 0.024 39.1 16.8
Dereck Rodriguez SF R 118 3 0 100 0.026 39.4 39.4
Andrew Suarez SF L 160 4 3 57 0.023 40.0 22.9
Zack Godley ARI R 444 11 5 69 0.021 40.4 27.8
Martin Perez MIN L 548 13 10 57 0.019 42.1 23.8
Odrisamer Despaigne CHW R 253 6 3 67 0.019 42.2 28.1
Chad Bettis COL R 467 11 9 55 0.020 42.5 23.4
Williams Perez STL R 170 4 0 100 0.018 42.6 42.6
Chris Stratton PIT R 213 5 6 45 0.019 42.6 19.4
Jack Flaherty STL R 172 4 1 80 0.022 43.0 34.4
Wei-Yin Chen MIA L 481 11 3 79 0.022 43.7 34.3
Adam Wainwright STL R 350 8 5 62 0.020 43.7 26.9
Jose Urena MIA R 489 11 10 52 0.020 44.4 23.3
Daniel Mengden OAK R 230 5 7 42 0.021 46.0 19.2
Zack Greinke ARI R 791 17 24 41 0.025 46.5 19.3
Danny Duffy KC L 618 13 8 62 0.019 47.5 29.4
Caleb Smith MIA L 95 2 4 33 0.018 47.6 15.9
Michael Fulmer DET R 455 9 7 56 0.020 50.6 28.5
Shohei Ohtani LAA R 51 1 1 50 0.019 51.2 25.6
Clayton Kershaw LAD L 718 14 14 50 0.027 51.3 25.6
Luis Castillo CIN R 258 5 1 83 0.020 51.7 43.1
Johnny Cueto SF R 632 12 11 52 0.019 52.6 27.5
Danny Salazar CLE R 425 8 14 36 0.018 53.2 19.3
Joe Ross WSH R 271 5 4 56 0.017 54.2 30.1
Ariel Jurado TEX R 54 1 0 100 0.015 54.2 54.2
Wade Miley HOU L 597 11 13 46 0.015 54.3 24.9
Nathan Eovaldi BOS R 390 7 6 54 0.017 55.7 30.0
Frankie Montas OAK R 112 2 2 50 0.013 56.0 28.0
Dallas Keuchel ATL L 749 13 4 76 0.018 57.6 44.1
Wade LeBlanc SEA L 292 5 6 45 0.018 58.4 26.5
Andrew Heaney LAA L 313 5 2 71 0.015 62.6 44.7
Jaime Barria LAA R 129 2 5 29 0.014 64.6 18.4
Tyler Mahle CIN R 132 2 1 67 0.011 66.0 44.0
Brent Suter MIL L 204 3 2 60 0.014 68.0 40.8
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS L 495 7 9 44 0.013 70.7 30.9
Joe Musgrove PIT R 286 4 3 57 0.013 71.6 40.9
Clay Buchholz TOR R 358 5 8 38 0.013 71.6 27.5
Austin Gomber STL L 75 1 2 33 0.010 75.0 25.0
Nick Kingham TOR R 76 1 2 33 0.011 76.0 25.3
Adam Plutko CLE R 80 1 3 25 0.011 79.9 20.0
David Price BOS L 700 8 9 47 0.012 87.6 41.2
Yonny Chirinos TB R 89 1 0 100 0.011 89.2 89.2
Christian Friedrich SD L 188 2 1 67 0.009 93.8 62.5
Miles Mikolas STL R 200 2 1 67 0.011 100.1 66.7
Matt Koch ARI R 104 1 1 50 0.009 104.2 52.1
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD L 213 2 1 67 0.009 106.5 71.0
Brian Flynn KC L 130 1 0 100 0.006 130.5 130.5
Cody Anderson CLE R 152 1 3 25 0.006 152.0 38.0
Luke Weaver ARI R 232 1 3 25 0.004 232.5 58.1
Elieser Hernandez MIA R 65 0 4 0 0.000 40.0 16.3

Totals by Left-Handed vs. Right-Handed Starting Pitchers (SPs from 2014-2017)

Download Table as CSV
Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output!

# L/R IP SB CS SB Suc% SB / Est SB Opp IP by SB IP by SB Att
R 56,525 3197 1388 69.7 0.053 17.7 12.3
L 25,156 1205 559 68.3 0.044 20.9 14.3

  1. Count de Monetball says:
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    Great tool rudy! When did you put this up and are you going to do a writeup about it sometime?

    Reply

    • Thanks. I just built it per our SAGNOF guy’s request (Mike). He’ll be referencing in future posts.

      Reply

  2. Alex says:
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    couldn’t help but notice that A.J. Burnett isn’t on the list. any chance this will get fixed before I have to decide whether to play Altuve or Dee Gordon tomorrow?

    Reply

  3. Alex says:
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    and no chris young!

    p.s. love, love, love the tool.

    Reply

  4. Greg says:
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    Not sure if you’re monitoring these comments these days, but it’s H2H playoffs and I want to stream a speedster for Sunday – any chance to add Odrisamer Despaigne, Trevor Bauer, and hector noesi added to the tool?

    Reply

  5. David says:
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    What’s usually the baseline for SB’s against a pitcher…anything over 60 percent is really good? Also, is this tool incorporated into the dfs tool when it mentions a player has .20 percent chance of a stolen base for instance? I assume it takes in rSB values, etc. in deciding the percent…

    Reply

    • @David: i think the league average is something like 70% for SB/SB attempts. But the other factor is that good pitchers will limit the attempts – e.g., a Buehrle or Cueto. I only factor in handedness for SB daily projection as it’s unknown who the catcher is going to be until close to gametime. I would need to do a rather large analysis to figure out exactly how much to credit/blame pitchers vs catchers for SB attempts and SB success rate. Given how small SBs factor into DFS, it hasn’t been an area that I’ve prioritized to date.

      Reply
  6. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Rudy, I love this tool. Questions though:
    Gose is facing Cueto today. He is ranked #236 above (tough to steal upon). Gose gets a .23 for SB in today’s hittertron.
    He faces Volquez on Wed. Volquez is rated #58 above (a much better bet to get a steal). Yet, Gose gets a .23 in Wed. hittertron.
    Why does he have the same likelihood of SB in hittertron, yet widely different in here? This not a factor in hittertron? (but, maybe should be?) (I may be missing something…)

    Reply

    • @Fred Barker: I am only using pitcher hand for SB projections. Have a big analysis in the queue to determine how much to credit/blame pitcher vs catchers for SBs.

      Reply
      • Simply Fred

        Fred Barker says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Cool. Just when one can’t believe the models can get ANY better!

        Reply
  7. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Congrats on moving up the ladder the second half in ‘Perts!

    Hey, I worked this SB chart hard for the last MONTH and got very marginal positive impact. Just my two-bits:
    I would put my development effort in other areas.
    (seems like the base stealers are gonna get em; those who don’t won’t–even against pitchers who give em up)

    Finallly, some extra time to play with the kids!

    Reply

    • @Fred Barker: Thx. Agreed regarding stolen bases. I did incorporate pitcher into the Hittertron SB projections and it seemed to have minor impact overall. I do think it’s most helpful for the handful of pitchers who are awesome/awful at holding guys on. But streaming for SBs is not as enjoyable or lucrative as for HRs.

      Reply

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