1. Dodgers RHP Roki Sasaki
He’s alone in this year’s class. I saw the 1.1 pick get traded for Logan Gilbert in a 15-team dynasty league. Other pieces were involved, but nothing to make the previous sentence untrue. Seems like a bit much for me. I prefer Gilbert by a long way and struggle to see how Sasaki could get even close to Gilbert’s 208.2 innings from 2024, never mind his 0.89 WHIP. This kind of trade is what makes dynasty leagues go round: sex v. substance. Door number three v. a car you could drive on the autobahn right now. Shop Sasaki if you have the chance to do so, is what I’m suggesting.
2. Guardians 2B Travis Bazzana
3. Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz
4. Angels 2B Christian Moore
5. Astros 3B Cam Smith
6. Cardinals SS JJ Wetherholt
In a perfect world, each of these ready-soon college hitters would become impact fantasy players. In reality, they’re simply the safest bets to lock down a dynasty starting spot for the long term.
Cam Smith’s eligibility seems destined to change as Houston installs Paredes and continues to converse with Alex Bregman’s camp. He might break into the starting lineup early if it looks like he can handle a corner outfield. Moore has an even better chance to contribute real roto stats early in 2025. I think Kurtz will join the middle of the MLB lineup by midseason. Bazzana’s path is a little clearer today than it was when Andres Gimenez was under contract forever. I like Juan Brito though, so I’m less aggressive on Bazzana’s timeline. Wetherholt is the farthest away in my opinion or he might be higher.
7. Reds RHP Chase Burns
8. White Sox LHP Hagen Smith
I like both these guys: college arms who can contribute this season. Their contexts are questionable, but the Reds and White Sox have developed solid fantasy pitchers over the past few seasons. Wins might be scarce, but I’d be happy to have either guy in the seven or eight spot.
9. White Sox OF Braden Montgomery
10. Pirates SS Konnor Griffin
11. Rockies 3B Charlie Condon
12. Royals 1B Jac Caglianone
13. Tigers SS Bryce Rainer
14. Giants SS Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez
Condon and Caglianone would be interesting picks at these spots, but they’ll both probably go top five in most drafts. JDJG is a vibes pick with huge upside as a switch-hitting shortstop who signed for almost $3 million and looks like an NFL safety at 17 years old.
15. Mets OF Carson Benge
16. Brewers OF Braylon Payne
17. Nationals SS Seaver King
18. Giants OF James Tibbs
19. Twins SS Kaelen Culpepper
20. Blue Jays RHP Trey Yesavage
21. Mets SS Elian Pena
In this group, one realizes the value of the previous tier. Don’t get me wrong, I like these guys. I mean, Fangraphs has Payne as a 35+ future value, and I certainly like him more than that, but generally speaking, the buzz is behind us now. I like Tibbs, too, but he’s in San Francisco, and left-handed hitters who aren’t Barry Bonds struggle to produce fantasy value there.
22. Orioles RHP Tomoyuki Sugano
23. Mariners P Jurrangelo Cjintje
Want an old pitcher who doesn’t get many strikeouts?
Well, yeah, actually. I’ve liked Sugano for a long time and thought his game would work against MLB hitters. I think he’ll get quite a few more strikeouts here than he ever did in Japan, just by the nature of the different leagues and Sugano’s ability to adapt and command his off-speed pitches.
How about a young pitcher who gets a ton of strikeouts?
Well, duh, of course, but Cjintje seems to be falling in the drafts I’ve done.
24. Brewers 1B Blake Burke
25. Mariners OF Yorger Bautista
At this point of most first-year-player drafts, I’m in the free agent pool. I might take a Jorge Lopez type looking at some save opportunities or a Griffin Conine type power hitter with a chance to lock down a lineup spot. I just feel like the return on investment of scouring the waiver wire far surpasses the potential boon of hitting on an under the radar guy who has barely played pro ball, even for a conversation like Conine v. Blake Burke, a big left-handed bat I like a lot but who has little defensive value and a lot of levels between him and the majors.
Thanks for reading!
Thanks for FYP Draft Strategy Itch!
Of these 3 Gino Groover, Jonathon Long, Charles McAdoo how would you rank them?
Kind of a tough question for ya Itch but where would you slot Jesus Made and Zyhir Hope if they were still available in this draft?
can compare them to those elig 1st time overall rankings in top 100 that also came out recently. here made is barely over bazzana, hope’s just behind burns and h.smith
it surely is tough to merge massive movers and 1st year guys, it’s how back when the prospect guy here wasn’t itch, and how much less prospect info there was entirely (or at least i knew of back then) i got a.kirilloff in his draft year over r.acuna.
this seems a lot stupider till i mention that drafted pick and that league’s draft occurs every year jan 2nd or 3rd or so. way before the industy back then had woken up to preseason prospect rankings for the upcoming season. itch now almost has his top 10’s done by that draft (maybe 3-5 teams left at worst last few years or so)
Jac Caglianone going to be fine or did they find a flaw in his game? I cant tell if it is actually concern or “he sucked in a small sample so he bad” overreaction.
It’s absolutely mind boggling that the Marlins have no TopProspects. I’ve been a diehard since 1993, but the modern day Marlins are hard to be a fan of. They get it wrong every single draft then get screwed in 2025 Oy.
Yeah they always sell off their prospects. Meyer and Meyer have potential and are top 60ish. No bats thoufgh.
Thanks, Itch! Nice work, as ever. Always glad to read your insight on the young’uns, especially at this time of year.
I am competitive in one of my 16-team leagues, so I had the 1.11 pick to start. I think I did alright considering:
1.11 (11) Cam Smith
2.2 (18) Ryan Waldschmidt
2.11 (27) Seaver King
2.14 (30) PJ Morlando
3.13 (45) Blake Burke
4.7 (55) Jared Thomas
5 round FYPD, league holds 35 minors per team. Needed to shore up 3b and now overdid it with Smith (but he was the best available). 3B is now Vientos, Smith, M Garcia, Rengifo. Guess I can move one for some pitching.
I also really like Waldschmidt. I think that Arizona is a great system for molding his swing into something manageable. If they could wrangle someone as wild as DDLS, Waldschmidt will develop well.
Not Itch but those first 3 picks are great value imo.
What was it about JDJG that has him rated above Pena?
Between JDJG, Pena and Rainer who would you rather take a chance on? I was thinking Pena just because of the park and surrounding lineup potential
2025 September call up for Burns? Wowza, those stats are incredible!
If they’re contending, he should be part of the team this summer, yeah.
They have a lot of starters. Lowder and Burns in minors, will replace whom on active roster? Maybe a 6 man rotation with Martinez in long relief?
In the middle of a FYP right now in a 12 team league with 20 prospect spots. It gets iffy in my opinion whether you keep picking in the third round.
I got Christian Moore at 6 and Bryce Rainer at 18. I’m hoping for Payne or Culpepper to fall to 30 or I might be done.
Yeah Payne would be quite the windfall profit in the round 3.
Thank you Itch. Going to refer to this several times in the next 30 days.
You Bryce Rainer in your top 100 prospects. Was leaving him off this list accidental?
Yeah, thanks, I goofed on that somehow.