Ok Razzballeroos. As of writing (Monday evening), Evan Carter hasn’t had a hit since April 24th. You must be saying to yourself, “Self – The Great Knoche has lost his marbles if he is going to recommend picking up or Speed Dialing Evan Carter”. And Self….maybe you are correct. My thought process, however, is if he doesn’t get sent down to figure things out, he’s still going to be a guy who steals 25+ bases for you in 2026. Here’s why.
With a nickname like Full Count Carter, you’re going to have a guy who strikes out a fair amount, but also draws a decent amount of walks. Both rates were a little lower than his early campaigns in 2025, but a month into the season, he’s drawing walks at a rate of 13.2%.
Also, the man has been straight-up unlucky. His BABIP is currently at .200. Normally, I’d say it’s a whole bunch of soft contact, but that isn’t the case. His Statcast Hard Hit% is the highest it’s been since his rookie campaign in 2023. His BABIP that year was .412, so there’s a middle ground somewhere he is going to land at. Side note here – The Rangers were committed to getting Carter more ABs vs left-handed pitching this year. He doesn’t have a hit off a lefty yet, so I’d say that experiment is probably close to being over.
What about speed? Well, he’s above league average with sprint speed at 27.8 Ft/sec. Last year, he stole 14 bases in 220 plate appearances and was only caught twice. This year, a month into the season, he is a perfect 5 for 5. He’s had back and quad issues the last two seasons, but prior to that, he stole 28 bases in 2022 and 29 bases in 2023.
Plus – the dude is still only 23 years old, so he still has a good chance to continue to run and figure out the batting average. If you need some stolen bases and are willing to take a chance, he should at minimum be a Speed Dial for you when he’s in the lineup, and I’d roster him in any deeper leagues now because the correction is surely coming. Ya know…cause he’ll be strokin’.
Here’s this week’s Stolen Bases Leaderboard
Nasim Nunez my call for Stolen Base leader at the end of season from draft prep time, currently has me looking like a genius. Again. Tarik Skubal to win another Cy Young not so much.
The Speed Dials
0 for 4 to start the year as we had one non-start last week.
Wednesday, May 6th – Rays vs Blue Jays
Johnny DeLuca – The Italian John has three stolen bases so far this year and is in the lineup every day against lefties. He’ll face Patrick Corbin, who allows a 79.4% success rate against and has a .152 SB/IP ratio. Deluca is near the top in MLB in sprint speed at 29.0 Ft/sec and is 25 for 32 in his career in SB attempts at the MLB level. Not sure who will be catching for the Blue Jays, but Tyler Heineman only throws out 9% of base stealers. Brandon Valenzuela has been much better, albeit on a limited sample size.
Thursday, May 7th – Phillies vs Athletics
Justin Crawford – For a guy who runs at 29.6 FT/sec, hitting .260 with a 7.3% walk rate and 110 plate appearances, only having three stolen bases is a travesty. Crawford’s stolen bases have to go up and soon. He’ll face J.T. Ginn and the Athletics Thursday. Ginn allows .111 SB/IP and has a 100% success rate against him. Shea Langeliers and Austin Wynns are both in the middle of the pack on the Catcher Throwing Leaderboard since the start of last season.
As always, if you’re looking for anything further out for next week, where we don’t have exact pitching match-ups, hit me up here or on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche
