Welcome back all you Razzballeroos to another exciting edition of SAGNOF Stolen Base fun here at Razzball. Seems like a good time to remind people, as we approach the one month mark of the season, what SAGNOF is. SAGNOF stands for Steals/Saves Ain’t Got No Face. Meaning, don’t overpay for these things in the draft because there will be plenty of options on the waiver wire coming up.
How has that played out so far? Well, in stolen bases, it usually takes a little longer to shake out, but guys that weren’t getting drafted, like Nasim Nunez, Luisangel Acuna, Carson Benge, and David Hamilton, are all chipping in if you’ve picked them up. It’s really shown itself to be true on the save side of things with Mason Miller pulling his weight, but the next top closers have gone down in a heap, and there’s been plenty of action on the waiver wire chasing saves.
So who else am I targeting that may be available to bolster my roster and stolen base totals? How about Cardinals outfielder Nathan Church? He has the speed to swipe bases with a Statcast Sprint speed checking in at 28.6 Ft/Sec. That makes him tied for 38th in all of MLB. He stole 16 bases last year in the minors in 385 plate appearances and has two seasons in the minor leagues where he topped 20 steals.
How does the rest of the body of work look overall? Well, in his first brief taste of MLB pitching last year, he struggled with a 27.7% K rate and only a 4.9% walk rate, but it was only in 65 plate appearances. He has a slight improvement in that so far this year, but I think there are much better things on the horizon based on his other track record. Last year in AA and AAA, he had a K-Rate under 10% and a walk rate sitting about the same. He hit .329 over the two levels and topped ten home runs for the first time in only those 385 plate appearances.
It looks like Church is locked into the 7-spot in that batting order every day against righties, and he has drawn some action against lefties also. If he gets his strikeout and walk ratios where he was in the minors, it’s possible we see a surprise .275/15/20 guy emerge from the bottom of the St. Louis lineup. I’d say he’s worth a look in deeper leagues and is also in play as a daily pickup.
Here’s this week’s Stolen Bases Leaderboard
The Speed Dials
We’re 0 for 3 to start the year. Hoping to get our first connection this week. Probable Pitcher Projections Outside of Streamonator have been very short-term thus far, and I am hoping we can get deeper into the weekend soon on our Speed Dials.
Wednesday, April 29th – Angels vs White Sox
Josh Lowe – He only has one sprint on Statcast this year, and it was slow, but his 28.0 Ft/sec average should be just fine for him to start cashing in on some steals. The Angels faced 5 lefties this last week, so he has only been in the starting lineup once. He’ll face Erick Fedde and the White Sox today. Fedde allows successful stolen bases on 88.9% of attempts and .126 SB/IP. Edgar Quero is in the bottom 1/4 of catchers when it comes to cutting down runners.
Thursday, April 30th – Orioles vs Astros
Leody Taveras – He’s had some really bad BABIP luck the last two years, and a lot of soft contact will do that, but he’s still super fast at 28.8 Ft/Sec, and should run when he gets on base from the bottom of that Orioles lineup. I doubt he stays on the roster for long once the Orioles get healthy, but for now, and likely wherever he lands, he should be a viable Speed Dial target. He’ll face Lance McCullers, who is washed. He’s allowing a ton of traffic and a perfect 9 for 9 in steals against him since coming back in 2025. He also has a .163 SB/IP. Yanier Diaz sits in the middle of the catcher throwing rankings, but doesn’t have much of a chance with Lance on the mound.
As always, if you’re looking for anything further out for next week, where we don’t have exact pitching match-ups, hit me up here or on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche
