What I Like: Spencer Turnbull, Colton Crowser, Francisco Lindor

How’s life? Is it time for your “Hot Fantasy Summer”? You know, when I write that, the SEO algorithm will think this article is on a totally different topic. Instead of beaches and caipirinhas and snorkeling with sea turtles, you’re getting…fantasy baseball! Don’t worry — that turtle was diseased anyway.

We lost the Quadfather this week. Let’s see if we can save your 2024 season, or set up your 2025 season for success:

What I Like

Spencer Strider: Underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the 2024 season, and likely half of 2025. He’ll be 27 when he returns, and fortunately in the middle of a contract that will keep him in Atlanta until the next presidential election (you know, the one when John Cena oversees the transition to Celebtocracy). Strider walks a familiar path that more and more pitchers are taking, and we’re getting better recovery times and outcomes. Often, the problem with TJ returnees isn’t their arm, but muscles that don’t get rehabbed — people spend so much time on upper body work that they hit the mound and find their field legs incapable of going the distance. We all know Strider is the Quadfather, so hopefully his return is a bit faster than others. If you’re in a dynasty league (not redraft, not keeper, strict dynasty), then now’s the time to grab a super-cheap Strider. Put him on the IL for the next 18 months and forget you even have him. When he returns in 2025, you’ll have a top pitcher who will be there for your second half surge. Great for 2025 you! But for the rest of you in 2024 who just lost your first round pitcher, let’s see if we can get some backups.

Spencer Turnbull (SP, PHI, 75% Rostered): Did you lose one Spencer? Grab the other! A classic example of what the Tigers could have been if the entire team didn’t get injured at the same time, Turnbull is getting a good start with the Phillies and is in the Top 40 SP on the year. There are a lot of worries for Turnbull — he’s getting a lot of looking strikes, and he’s got a few too many walks for a guy who doesn’t top 10 K/9. The Phillies should get plenty of Wins, and Turnbull can be a valuable 5th SP for a team that lost Strider, Bieber, or is waiting on Cole.

Martin Perez (SP, PIT, 7% Rostered): Desperate? Perez does this every year — he’s got a hot phase, where he makes his case for staying in the league. And then he collapses. Sometimes, it’s a half year of good play. Sometimes, it’s a month. I mean, you’re just trying to find a warm body to get you through April, and Perez has a fairly neutral late April/early May lined up. If your league has zero pitchers on the wire, snag Perez to get you through the month and see what’s out there during minor league call up time in May.

Colton Cowser (OF, BAL, 27% Rostered): Sure, Jackson Holliday showed up this week, but the other news is that former first round pick Colton Cowser is crushing. Clearly, 73% of leagues are already abandoned. Cowser smashed three homers and racked up 11 RBIs this week, which was literally more than the entire Pirates and Rays team. I know people hate the word “platoon,” but Cowser seems to be making his way into the everyday MLB lineup, and he should be on your lineup as well.

Shelby Miller (P, DET, 37% Rostered): Roleless Rob alert! How many of you old folx traded half your dynasty team for Shelby Miller back in the day? I’m amazed this dude’s even in the league here, but here, in this the year of our AI Lord twenty and twenty four, Shelby Miller makes the “recommendation” list. Wait. Why did I put “recommendation” in quotes? Miller’s gotten extremely lucky this year, claiming three Wins to start the season while allowing 1 hit in 8 Innings. Of course, the advanced metrics scream “luck!” But there’s also some intriguing under the radar evidence: he’s ditched his starter repertoire and has adopted a narrower, fastball-based approach. He’s not generating a ton of strikes, but the contact that batters make is generally trashy contact — straight up into the sky. I’m not saying Miller is here to save your team, but for RCLs, we’re seeing the emergence of a magic man who has appeared in about 40% of his team’s games and is limiting damage. W, ERA, and WHIP without adding IP for free off the bench? What more could you ask for?

Francisco Lindor (SS, NYM, 100% Rostered): Speaking of bad luck, Lindor’s making “contact” at one of the better rates of his long career. He’s got the second best walk rate of his career. He’s only 30. Yet, his .103 batting average and 24 wRC drive managers to wonder if they should bench him. His expected batting average is .270, and he’s got the best swinging strike rate of his career. Most of the numbers scream “huge May incoming,” which means that now’s your chance to buy low on a player that could turn your team around.

I’m the Problem – It’s Me

Nick Castellanos (OF, PHI, 100% Rostered): While the signs point to good returns for Lindor, the same signs flag Castellanos as “trouble.” Castellanos’ role on your team is always “OF2/UTIL” guy, who is generally there for boring upside but reliable floor. His tendencies to swing and miss are well known, but this year he’s also making terrible contact — 0% barrel rate, second-lowest line drive rate of his career, and xwOBA that looks worthy of defensive infielder. Don’t drop, but see if you can trade away Castellanos’ slow start for something with upside.

Julio Rodriguez (OF, SEA, 100% Rostered): Chill out before you go, “But EWB says not to worry about Top 100 players in the first month!” I’m not terribly worried, and you shouldn’t be either. But there’s always more risk when taking a younger player at the top of the draft. The advanced stats look pretty gross on the whole — a swinging strike rate that looks like Castellanos’, and an ISO that I couldn’t even make a joke about. He’s got an ISO of .017 through 63 plate appearances at the time of writing. Yeesh. Things will get better. But if you’re in the mindset that “Julio’s gonna get better and I don’t need to improve my team,” then you’re probably dead in the water. JRod’s not going to anchor your team like you expected, so now’s the time to grab some extra ammo. Don’t trade JRod now — you’re not going to get value — and definitely don’t drop him (like some of you 10-teamers are doing. Who are you, anyway?). All I’m saying is, evaluate your team for surplus strength and leverage that surplus to bolster your hitting. Too many SP? Trade them off and get Lindor for cheap. Then when May comes and Lindor and JRod start ripping and there are top starters on the waiver wire for free, you’re in a much better situation.

We’re still in “Don’t Panic” mode. Even top players can be trash for long periods of the season — we’re familiar with the annual Gerrit Cole “negative value period” that he puts up annually — sometimes for up to 20% of the season — before he corrects the ship and saves your booty.

Stick with those top players where you can, but don’t be afraid of grabbing hot hands to see if they stick in a lineup. That’s how Spencer Strider began in the first place — a Roleless Rob who dominated so hard in April and May that he got the starting job come June, and the rest is history. We don’t have enough data right now to tell us who the next Spencer Strider is, so while we wait for that data to solidify, get that team in a good position for a mid-year surge.