Analytics Anonymous: The Pitcher Apocalypse Is Here

Since our last session of Analytics Anonymous, the universe has been actively aligning to bring darkness to our lives.  No, I’m not talking about Monday’s solar eclipse.  I’m talking about the MLB pitcher apocalypse that seems to propagate every day.

From April Fool’s Day forward, a number of high-profile elbow injuries have devastated both real and fantasy baseball worlds.  And the list is growing.  There’s Eury Perez of the Marlins, Jonathan Loaisiga of the Yankees, Shane Bieber of the Guardians, and of course, Spencer Strider of the Braves.  Let’s not overlook Framber Valdez, Nick Pivetta, and Josiah Gray as well, who are still undergoing evaluations for elbow-related injuries at the time of this writing.  That’s an impressive set of names.  Unfortunately, when those names show up on this particular list, it becomes an apocalypse.

I’ve had the pleasure of meeting one active Major League GM and I saw first-hand how he lives and dies with every pitch.  I have to imagine dealing with injuries to your key personnel has to be one of the worst parts of the job.  It is also one aspect of the job they plan for all the time.  Someone has to step up.

It’s not different for all of us in the fantasy world.  The best fantasy managers craft their rosters with an eye on the inevitable – injuries.  No matter who you are, a long-term injury to your top pitcher, like Strider and Valdez, is going to be impossible to replace.  When it does occur though, there are two options, either you throw in the towel, or you get back to work.  I’m all about the latter option and that’s going to be the topic of our analysis today.

To fill these major gaps in our lineups, we may have to change our tactics.  If you go in planning to replace the 200 IP that Valdez was projected to give us with just one player, you’re doing it wrong.  We need to try to identify the pitchers that can fill our short-term need and be ready to divert to another when the time arrives.  If one of those new additions becomes the next Spencer Strider, then you’ve struck gold my friend, but don’t count on it.  You’ll be best served to break up the season and win those segments.  So, let’s look for pitchers that can help us win the first segment.

DISCLAIMER:  Yes, I realize the season is still very early with a small amount of data to make truly informed decisions.  However, we must play with the cards we’re dealt.  The cards I’m dealing starts with separating the pitchers to only look at SPs with two or more starts.  Then, further filter the SPs to those with a positive WAR.  This give me 85 SPs to play with.  That’ll work.

Here are the top 12 in WAR:

What do you notice first?

• The “best” SP was just lost to Tommy John?
• A CHW and LAA pitcher made the top 12 list?
• A “rookie” SP from Japan is currently a top 12 SP?
• A number of RP-turned-SP are on the list?
• ALL OF THE ABOVE?

Quite a diverse list there.  Trust me, the rest of the list follows suit.  Of course, that’ll correct over time, but it doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage in the short term.

Let’s start digging into the numbers.

Strikeouts

If strikeouts are your greatest need, here are the top 15 (of 85) SPs across the “K” categories.  Note:  Both Shane Bieber and Nick Pivetta were part of the top 15 before their IL removal.

I doubt any of these names are available in 15-team leagues but if you’re in a 12-teamer, check your wire for names like Houck, Jones, Turnbull and Crochet.  For instance, I picked up Turnbull before his Tuesday night start in one of my leagues (14-team) and got just about everything I could have hoped for.  Unfortunately, the bullpen blew the SV.

Ratios

If your ratios need some fine tuning, you may find some options here.

There’s Spencer Turnbull again.  I’m also high on Merrill Kelly this year and drafted a few shares of Jordan Hicks.  I’m very happy with both so far.  You’re probably not going to find these latter two on the wire but send out some trade offers (if your league allows) and see what you can do.

ERA/xERA and FIP/xFIP

Before we get to the numbers, here’s a quick refresher on these two analytical partners.  Of course, we need to take these results with a grain of salt with only two or three starts on the ledger, but they’re still fun to look at.

• ERA, Earned Run Average:  A cornerstone to fantasy baseball, the ERA is defined as the number of earned runs a pitcher allows per nine innings.  ERA was intended to be an ideal evaluation of pitchers but there are a few flaws with the stat due to the many factors that affect it, including defensive influences (beyond errors), park factors, etc.
• xERA, Expected ERA:  xERA represents what a pitcher’s real ERA might be, calculated with skills-based measures and eliminating the influence on situation-dependent factors (i.e., ballpark, bullpen support, etc.).  The difference between ERA and xERA helps predict future pitcher performance.

Here’s what the early season ERA/xERA data tells us:

ERA Regression Coming?

ERA Improvement Coming?

Let’s add in FIP/xFIP.

• FIP, Fielding Independent Pitching:  FIP attempts to eliminate the influence of defense on the pitcher’s statistics by judging only on HRs, BBs, HB (hit batsmen) allowed and Ks.  FIP is particularly useful during the season to help identify pitchers whose fortunes should even out moving forward.  Using FIP in conjunction with ERA to provide a stronger evaluation basis than ERA alone.  Those with a positive “FIP – ERA” value may be benefiting from some good luck and see a negative correction on the horizon.  Those with a negative “FIP – ERA” should be in line for better overall ERA.
• xFIP, expected Fielding Independent Pitching:  xFIP takes it a step further by assuming a league-average HR rate and incorporating a pitcher’s fly balls allowed.  xFIP can be helpful when evaluating pitchers at ballparks with significantly different park factors.  I’ll include the xFIP numbers below but for calculation purposes, I’ll stick just to the FIP.

ERA Regression Coming?

ERA Improvement Coming?

 

Looking over these tables, and keeping in mind the minimal data to evaluate, many of the names show up where we’d expect them.  I particularly like the FIP-ERA table directly above and plan to target some of these names in my never-ending Waiver/Trade work.

Before we put a wrap on this, let’s take a quick look at some selected advanced analytics:

LD%, Line Drive Percentage:

There’s a saying in pitching circles, “Line drives are death to pitchers.”  This is because line drives generally result in batting averages over .650 and 1.25 or more runs per out.  Therefore, we want to stay clear of pitchers who induce a higher percentage of line drives.  Here are the ones best suppressing their LD%.

StatCast Data:

If you’re an avid participant in Analytics Anonymous, you know I like StatCast data.  For this exercise, I rank the 85 SPs based on their rankings in exit velocity (EV), launch angle (LA), Barrel % (Brl%), max exit velocity(maxEV), and Hard Hit % (HH%).

For this one, I’ll give you the top 25:

Plenty of good names here.  Check your waiver wire to see which may be options for you.

In Summary…

I’ve given you a lot of information here today.  What you do with it is up to you.  If it’s too early to make any major moves, I can understand that.  If you lost one (or more) of the SPs you were counting on, you are a little more motivated to piece together replacements.  Even if you’re somewhere in the middle, you should be able to find something here that interests you.

For me, I’ve already added Spencer Turnbull (in two leagues) and will also be looking to increase my shares in arms like Kutter Crawford, Zack Littell and maybe even Brady Singer.

Don’t let the Pitcher Apocalypse get you down.  Keep Grinding!

Now to pay the bills…

When you come to the Razzball site, you can find me on both on the baseball and football sides.  Just look for “The Lineup Builder” and you’ve found me!  I’m doing QB rankings all offseason in addition to hosting these baseball sessions.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret.  I’m now on BlueSky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).

Until next time, my friends.