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So, went from the brutal cold of Los Angeles to the unseasonably warm NYC to take on the ‘perts of fantasy baseball in Tout Wars. As most of you, they have a bunch of leagues drafting over the weekend. Mine happens to be NL-Only, and happens on Sunday, so, after having Harold Dieterle, former Top Chef winner, on the podcast a few times, Geoff and I finally got to go out to dinner with him on Saturday night. He took us to one of New York’s most renown restaurants:

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I’m back with another exciting article on pitcher analytics.  This week, I dive in (feet first into the shallow end mind you) with a little project built upon a fantastic article done by one of our finest Razzball baseball writers, @everywhereblair.  Way back in 2021, our 3x @fswa finalist and @razzball wiffernaut (his word, not […]

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Hey, let me ask you something, are we shipping Roger Maris Jr. and Aaron Judge‘s mom? What? Why are you booing me? Okay, serious-serious question, how many changes of clothes does Roger Maris Jr. have with him in Toronto? Okay, serious-serious-serious question, isn’t Roger Maris Jr. actually just Roger Maris but with an asterisk? Stop throwing tomatoes at me! I can’t use all my Roger Maris Jr. material anywhere else. So, Aaron Judge (1-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs) hit 61, becoming, what, the seventh most prolific home run hitter in a season? Honestly, when you really stop to think about what Barry Bonds did, it’s truly remarkable. I don’t care if he was sticking Babe Ruth’s DNA in his butt and Ted Williams’s DNA in his male sack, it’s freakin’ impressive! Aaron Judge? Also, incredibly impressive. I’m not going to lie, when I hear stuff like, “He becomes the first player to have 130 runs and 130 RBIs in the same season since 2007,” and how he’s almost 20 homers higher than anyone else in the majors, I get extreme FOMO for any teams of mine that don’t have him. His 60/20/.315 with 130/130 might be the best fantasy season any of us witness. Or at least until Barry Bonds returns at the age of 58 with Hack Wilson’s DNA in his arm, Ruth’s in his butt and Williams’s in his sack. Let’s go! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Fresh goes better in life with Vientos, fresh and full of life! Ahh…The Metsmaker! Sorry, that was stuck in my head. Now, hopefully, it’s stuck in your head too. Mets called up their next great hitting prospect, Mark Vientos, after Starling Marte went to the IL. Can Vientos play outfield? Absolutely not. Can Vientos run? His speed has been described as “an 80-year-old baby crawling with tennis balls on its knees.” Can Vientos hit bombs? To the freakin’ moon! He kinda reminds me of a young Evan Longoria. Now take everything you’ve thought about Longoria over the last seven years, scrub it from your brain, and think about Longoria as if this is 2016. Your brain in 2016, “Rays should lock this Longoria guy up for another ten years! He’s amazing! Wait! They let Longoria go? Wow, what a mistake! They just let a perennial 30+ homer, .270 hitter go! Rays will be in last place for the next decade. What a bunch of losers!” So, your 2016 brain is kinda remembering correctly. Longo was good at that point. Mark Vientos can be good too. Prospect Itch has more concerns about his batting average in his top 100 prospects. For this year, do I want Mark Vientos in a redraft league? No, I’d want Eduardo Escobar. Or maybe even Evan Longoria. Anyway. here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

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Not since Rollie Fingers’s mustache left his face in the middle of the night in July, 1979, and impregnated my mother, during one of her weaker moments, after being told her ravioli wasn’t as good as her mother’s, has a mustache had such a remarkable evening. Yes, I’m saying that to you today. The mustache that impregnated my mother that usually laid on the upper lip of Rollie Fingers was not as great as Spencer Strider‘s. Do you know how hard it is for me to admit this? Spencer Strider (8 IP, 0 ER, 2 hits, zero walks, 16 Ks, ERA at 2.67. ) is having such a ridiculous season his ERA is 2.67; his xFIP is 2.33. That’s right, he’s been unlucky! Spencer Strider came into the year with a 45-grade from Fangraphs. Itch ranked Strider behind Langeliers and Cristian Pache in the Braves’ system. This is not to disparage either. This is to say, no one saw this coming. For 2023 fantasy, Spencer Strider can’t get better, can he? I just told you, he’s been unlucky! His command could get better; his strikeouts are prolly maxed out. I don’t see Strider getting better, maybe staying similar for 2023 fantasy. That’s still really good! I wouldn’t be shocked to see Spencer Strider as my 1st pitcher selected in some leagues in 2023 fantasy. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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The MLB playoffs are still a month away, but your fantasy baseball playoffs are practically here! Your starting pitching philosophy changes dramatically when the stakes are high and time is limited. If you’re a strong team in the playoffs, you’ll want to use pitchers with confident outcomes. If you’re a weak team, you might need to make some risky pitcher plays to stay in the running — but nobody expected the #6 seed to advance anyway, right? When the expected outcome is “lose,” you should take every risk you can to put variance in your favor and win. 

Let’s jump right in to the actionable items. As mentioned last week, I am no longer providing the hierarchical ranks — the data window of remaining MLB games is insufficient to move the ranking needle on up-and-coming pitchers. 

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“Hello, Sharks! I’m here today with a lip balm like you’ve never seen before. It only needs to be applied once, and it lasts forever. It’s called…It’s Da Balm! And it’s made out of napalm. On the tables in front of you, you will find a sample of the product. We have had no complaints! Try it please, and I think you’ll be left, as most, completely speechless, lips falling onto the floor.” Mr. Wonderful mumbles as his bottom lip falls off. “Another happy customer!” So, Alec Bohm (3-for-5, 6 RBIs, and his 9th and 10th homer) and Mark Canha (3-for-5.5 RBIs and his 9th and 10th homer) had a dueling two-homer game, both for their 9th and 10th homers. Elias Sports Bureau about to concoct some trivia out of that shizz! Mark Canha’s homers ended up being more important, but you know him. Alec Bohm or Alec Bohm for 2023 fantasy baseball? Do you know him? Maybe, but let’s see. He’s corrected what was hurting him last year in a big way. His Launch Angle (10.7) almost doubled this year, and his flay ball rate, while no one would consider it elite, it’s much better (28.7%). Don’t love that his HardHit% has come down, but it’s still top 50-ish in the league and his exit velo (90 MPH) is solid. Bohm’s 2023 price will be interesting to see, and a buying opportunity might be present. Not sure if a sleeper is in the works, though. He doesn’t feel on the precipice of being jaw-droppingly great. Or lip-droppingly. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

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And-Gim isn’t just Pam from The Office’s requested guest list plus one. And-Gim isn’t just someone remembering late their favorite characters on Taxi. “And-Gim And-Gim number nine, on the New York Transit Line, if my train goes off the track, pick him up, pick him up, pick him up! Back on the scene, crispy and clean, still 23 with an outside chance for 20/20/.300!” Okay, that last part didn’t rhyme. Yesterday, Andres Gimenez went (4-for-8, 5 RBIs and his 13th and 14th homer, hitting .312) in the doubleheader. Gimenez is averaging about four homers a month, and has seven steals already this month. If he gets ten steals in a month, well, I don’t want to wake up Mr. Prorater — “Did you know your uncle spends more time on Facebook than Jonas Salk spent on polio?” — Oh, shut up, Mr. Prorater! Andres Gimenez is in that delicate area where if he loses just a little power and speed in 2023, then he becomes a 15/15 guy and that’s a little yawnstipating, but he’s also on the precipice of becoming a 20/30/.300 guy, and that’s top 25 overall guy. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Orlando Arcia went down with a hamstring strain and some teams would’ve just cobbled together a makeshift shortstop out of available major league pieces. A Frankenshortstop, so to speak. And it might’ve been fine, might’ve ran into a hot day or three from whoever they Ehire’d. That’s the kind of shizz other teams do! Not the Braves! I love the Braves for this, by the way. They promote their prospects like they’re Tim McGraw singing Live Like You’re Dying. They’re on a bull named Fu Manchu, and they promote their guys! Love it! Of course, sometimes with pitchers, they come up, surprise hitters for three to six months, then fade into obscurity, unable to handle setbacks. But who cares about that now? Their sticks come up and stick. Yesterday, they promoted Vaughn Grissom from Double-A, where he was 3/7/.363 in 22 games, after going 11/20/.312 in High-A. He appeared in Itch’s Top 50 prospects, and now appears on all of my teams, because I love me some rookie nookie! Plus, he got a slam (1) and legs (1) in his major league game (2-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs), and the homer was an absolute moonshot over the Green Monster. Haven’t been that impressed by a Braves’ rookie debut since Jason Heyward’s! Okay, that’s not fair, but trying to put things in perspective. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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The Rangers must be looking for a Bubba sparks to rock it very well, because they’re calling up outfielder, Bubba Thompson (1-for-3). Looking at my fantasy team with no speed, “Ah, yeah, I found you, team with an outfield that is booty.” Seeing Prince Fielder’s poster in the Hall of Legends in Arlington, singing softly, “Booty, booty, booty, booty, rockin’ everywhere.” Walking into the VIP section of the loge deck, “Hit the player’s club for bout a month or two,” rubs pluot on shirt, “Get it ripe, get it right, hit it with a bite.” Okay, sorry! Bubba Sparxxx makes me laugh. So, the Rangers are calling up Bubba Thompson, whose minor league numbers are eye-poppingly gorge: In 80 games at Triple-A, he hit 13 homers and .303, with 49 steals. Get it ripe, get it right, steal a base on sight! He was in Itch’s top 60 outfielder prospects, and, one love to Itch, but even if he wasn’t, and he had 49 steals in a half season, I’d be interested, because the speed category for all of my fantasy teams is booty, booty, booty, booty, suckin’ everywhere. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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