Early on Saturday, I heard the news that Jay Bruce made the Yankees’ Opening Day roster, and I was like, “Cool, if this is 2012.” Then I thought, “Is this 2012? Am I time traveler?” Turned out it was not 2012, and I was not a time traveler. Double bummer there. Somehow, Jay Bruce is still only 33 years old, so he might be a time traveler. After my brief flight of fancy through a time portal that didn’t exist, I thought, “That sucks, keeping Bruce over Tauchman. He can’t catch a break. That’s not the bee’s knees, that’s BS.” Then I thought, “I can just curse in my own head, I don’t need to spell out BS.” Then, out of nowhere, I saw the Yankees were keeping Mike Tauchman on the Opening Day roster too, and things began to peel away from my very logical brain. How were the Yanks keeping three 1st basemen? Was everything fine with Luke Voit? Welp, turned out it wasn’t. The Yankees were watching a triple feature of Luke Skylimper; Luke Cool Hand, But Torn Meniscus and Luke Voit in Meniscus Cowboy. After disowning Angelina Jolie, Voit will be undergoing surgery on his torn meniscus in his knee, and will miss at least April and May. This puts the spotlight on Bruce to reclaim his Glory Days, when every speedball wasn’t thrown right by him. Whereas, Tauchman is interesting in AL-Only leagues, if he can get in the lineup. I’ve added neither to my 2021 fantasy baseball rankings, because they might only be platooning for six to eight weeks. In the top 20 1st basemen, I lowered Luke Voit, taking roughly 200 ABs off his projections. Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2021 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Please see our player page for Casey Mize to see projections for today, the next 7 days and rest of season as well as stats and gamelogs designed with the fantasy baseball player in mind.
Is Casey Mize easy to hit? For Major League baseball players, I mean–not for your Uncle Bruno who goes to the batting cages once a month. Or did, pre pandemic. Rusty Uncle Bruno would not make contact against Casey Mize. Major leaguers, on the other hand, can’t stop making contact.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I don’t have some big introductory explanation here. I trust you grasp the premise and intend to skip this paragraph, but if I still have your eyes for the moment, I’ll say I imagine a start-up build for a 15-team, 2-catcher dynasty league when parsing through the lists and try to explain when a player’s value varies based on settings. If you’re in a contention window, your rankings should look a bit different than they’d look on the front end of a rebuild. I’ll flag some players along the way for whom the disparity in value can get especially large from build to build.
In case you missed it, here’s a link to the Top 10 Prospects for 2021 Fantasy Baseball.
And here’s one for the Top 25 Prospects for 2021 Fantasy Baseball.Please, blog, may I have some more?
For a two-time World Series Champion with over 40 years of experience in MLB front offices, Dave Dombrowski gets a bad rap. The consensus on the baseball operations veteran seems to be that his only formula for success is to either ink big contracts or swap top prospects for elite talent that comes accompanied with hefty salaries. However, Dombrowski’s maneuvers have largely come as a result of the hands he has been dealt and the relative competitiveness of his various organizations at the time of his hire. He turned the 1997 Florida Marlins, a 1993 expansion team, into a World Series Champion. He built one of the greatest starting rotations in modern history in Detroit. He came to Boston in 2015 with a mandate to take the Red Sox to the top and did just that in 2018. Is he perfect? Far from it. Can he win a championship? Clearly. You should desire the same.
I say this to explain why I frequently refer to my strategy in dynasty leagues as Dombrowski-esque. It is not simply because of Dave’s suave, shiny gray hair to which I look forward to sporting myself in my mid-50s. In these formats, managers are drafting using such polarizing strategies that the key is to seek out excess value by pitting your opposition’s own intelligence (or so it may seem) against them. Seek opportunity where it presents itself, and if that means honing in on proven talent to win now, then do so. There will always be newer, shinier (but not as shiny as Dave’s hair) prospects to target in these leagues down the line. That’s why today I will be reviewing my selections in the 12 team, H2H points dynasty startup mock that fellow Razzballer Dylan Vaughan Skorish and I partook in this past week. Although I will reveal all of my selections, my focus in this piece will be to review my strategy and discuss the prospects I targeted in this mock draft.Please, blog, may I have some more?
The rebuild in Rock City is coming along well enough, thanks in large part to an excellent 2020 draft class stocked with high probability bats to back up the might-be aces in waiting near the top of this list.Please, blog, may I have some more?
This is the third year I’m writing a Casey Mize rookie outlook post. Lowercase yay. Never the hoo:
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) August 20, 2020
Waste time with a Mizerpiece
Don’t waste time with a Mizerpiece
You should be rolling with me
You should be rolling with me, ah
You’re a real-life fantasy
You’re a real-life fantasy.
I have designated his stuff Cake by the Ocean. No one comes back from that with realistic expectations. Last person to even come close was a 1988 fantasy outlook post I did for Kevin Blankenship, who Baseball-Almanac ranks in the top 500 still living players who debuted in 1988. A worthy designation! Prior to going forward, let’s go back to what I’ve said previously, “Mize’s final Double-A numbers were 78 2/3 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 2.98 FIP. Can’t lie, that injury worries me (he had shoulder inflammation in June of 2019), and I’m afraid of ghosts and that Mize might need some major surgery before resting for 18 months and then returning to being an ace. Specifics on his stuff: double-plus splitter with a plus heater, slider, and control.” And that’s me quoting me! Then the Tigers promoted Casey Mize this year, because they’re wont to promote prospects super fast, which is awesome, and Mize was, well, less than awesome. His stats from this year: 0-3/6.99/1.48/26 in 28 1/3 IP. That gives me a big gulp, and not like the giant drink from 7-11 that you need two hands and both feet to hold. So, what can we expect from Casey Mize for 2021 fantasy baseball?Please, blog, may I have some more?
Trevor Bauer (8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 12 Ks, ERA at 1.73) is going to win the NL Cy Young. Sooner you come to terms with that, the better for your own mental well-being. You’ll be able to listen to relatives talk about how they saw Trevor Bauer on HBO’s Real Sports, and how Trevor Bauer invented ‘a ball spinning,’ and how he’s so old school with his notebook, but not a spiral notebook. No, no, no — a laptop that Bauer calls, “My Notebook.” You can hear about how Trevor Bauer’s best friend is his dad and how he can make any other pitcher better just by talking him through ‘The Process.’ You come to terms with all of this now, you’re gonna be happier later. Trevor Bauer does have two Cy Young-worthy years in the last three, so maybe there’s something to it. Not sure how that circle is squared with last year, which I still haven’t forgiven him for — 4.48 ERA in 213 IP absolutely killed me. For 2021, it’ll be hard for me to stay away, as it always is with Bauer. Hey, I’m a sucker for 12+ K/9 and the promise of a 2.5 BB/9 or lower. If Bauer can do that, he could have this level of success every season. Wonder if there will be people drafting him in the top five starters. Maybe if I’m in a league with Bryant Gumbel, or your uncle who watches him. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I’m freshly back from The Hotties, which is the annual Razzball award ceremony for the “hottest taeks” in fantasy baseball. With the sharp-toothed piranhavirus in full swing, Grey called for a “Mask-erade” ball, but the Eventbrite invitation auto-corrected it to a “masquerade” ball. Everybody showed up with the wrong parts of their face covered. I thought Grey would be upset but he seemed to take everything in stride, saying that he had been waiting for this day since “Eyes Wide Shut” was released. Is that a movie or a novel or a contact delivery service? Anyway, Grey started giggle-whispering “Fidelio!” at everybody. Hey, Grey, I get it. Fidel Castro liked baseball. Let’s get with the times!
I did manage to record Grey’s speech to all the writers and Instagram models who attended. Here’s the transcript if you want to read it:
“I’ll get right to the point: I’m proud to announce a new partnership between Razzball and the San Diego Padres. 2021 will be known as STAN DIEGO around here, and all hot taeks will involve Padres players. The top 10 pitchers? Lamet, Davis, Clevinger, and Paddack [audible hissing from the crowd]. The top 10 hitters? Tatis, Machado, Grisham, and Myers. Trevor Rosenthal is a top 30 pick. You will all write sleeper articles on Joey Lucchesi, Adrian Morejon, and yes, Eric Hosmer. [pause while Grey dodges thrown masks] Fear not, for STAN DIEGO comes with perks! You will all get a free hot dog with a purchase of an annual pass to Sea World, and you’ll get a personal tour of the tiger enclosure at the San Diego Zoo. Now, writers, start hyping Jake Cronenworth!”
At that point, all the people Grey whispered “Fidelio” to disappeared into Grey’s private grotto, which he named “50 Shades of Play” because of the underwater mini-golf course he installed. Myself? I was left standing in the foyer with a mysterious note that only said, “MacKenzie Gore, 2021 hot taek.”Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yesterday, Byron Buxton went (3-for-4, hitting .270) and hit his 11th and 12th homer. This is the 2nd time this year he’s homered in three straight games. Prior to this year, he had never homered three games in a row. What could be if Buxton could only stay healthy…*wavy lines* “Whoa, dream sequence! What’s this, a rainbow with a map to its natural end? I will follow this! Wow, only three years later to find the end of this rainbow, I should’ve drove! Hey, look…a pot! Let me see what’s in it…neat, there’s gold, and Buxton being a 40/20/.260 hitter in 162 games, and a young Pamela Anderson, and a battery for my calculator watch that I couldn’t find after the Radio Shack by me went out of business…this dream sequence is amazing!” *wavy lines* Oh, man, here I am still with a constantly broken Buxton and calculator watch. Dreams don’t exist. For 2021, Byron Buxton is going to once again be a total wild card who could be a top 20 outfielder, or act like one for about 80 games. 80 games of Buxton still comes out to…*plugs numbers into calculator watch*…8.6? Ugh, why’d Radio Shack abandon me? Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Alright, I admit, my title doesn’t quite have the same pomp as some of the other pitcher-named days, but that is not to discount Framber Valdez ($9,100) and what he could potentially do tonight. The biggest reason for this is his opponent. I mean, the title could have been “Happy Pitcher Who Is Facing The Rangers Day”, but that’s a mouthful. Just look at what Jose Urquidy (7 IP, 7Ks, 1 ER, 3 Hits) did to them the other day. Sure, Bieber will likely dominate, but I’d prefer to take a discount and roll with Framber. His near 9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 are more than enough to pay the bills. Framber has also been a tad unlucky as suggested by his 3.34 FIP vs. 4.08 ERA. Add in the Rangers second to last team OPS and we have a recipe for success, be it in GPPs or a pivot in cash games. Save some money with Framber and load up on juicy offense to win the day.
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