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If you’re at all familiar with management theory, then you’re probably aware generally of the “Peter Principle”. The concept is simple, managers rise to the level of their incompetence. Here’s where you think about your current manager, and snicker. Are you done? Okay, so it’s concept that many of us can relate to, some of us first hand. But what does this have to do with the subject of today’s profile Marlins starter Dillon Peters? Ahhh, his name is Peters? It works right? But perhaps there’s more there. Or maybe I’m overthinking. Yeah, totally overthinking it. Then again, is it possible that Peters has risen to his own level of potential incompetence here in the Bigs? His numbers over the last two years in the minors have been phenomenal, rarely letting up multiple earned runs in a game. In fact over the last two years, across 37 starts between high A and AA, Peters has amassed a 21-9 record with a 2.11 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .224 BAA,  7.5 K/9, and 1.74 Bb/9. While allowing just 5 balls to leave the park in 191.2 innings. So to say he’s on a great run the last few years is an understatement. Will that continue here in the majors or is he due for a heavy regression? Through Peters first few starts he’s been solid but lucky. I actually intended to profile his start last Tuesday at Philadelphia, but pivoted to Sunday’s turn for the rescheduled home game vs the Brew Crew. I figured in case things went awry in Milwaukee recency bias would win out. Here’s what I saw.

Scouting Report: Let’s just get this out of the way in the first sentence, Peters is short. At 5’9 he’s one of the shortest starters in baseball this side of Marcus Stroman. He’s not small however, as he’s stoutly built, but you do notice his height when he’s on the mound. With some injuries over the last year +, it’s fair to question the lefties durability. It’s also easy to see why scouts probably immediately dismissed him, despite playing big time college ball at Texas. Peters arsenal is a classic three pitch mix, comprised of a low 90’s-high 80’s fastball, a high to mid 70’s curveball, and a mid to low 80’s changeup. He’s often lauded for his sequencing and backwards approach to pitching, but from what I’ve seen, he still tends to lead with his heat. After watching Peters first start of  his two turn week vs the Phillies, I will say I was surprised at just how hard his fastball is, touching 93-94 consistently. The announcers in Sunday’s game discussed a two-seamer, but they might have been mistaken as I neither observed nor read anything about Peters featuring a second variation of his hardball. The four-seamer accounts for a slight majority of Peters usage, checking in at a 45% rate. He generates a high amount of groundball contact with the pitch, though the batting average against of .342, calls into question it’s effectiveness. Despite often leading with his four-seamer, Peters’ bread and butter is his curveball. He has a Rich Hill like usage rate on the hook of 38%, and by all accounts and measures looks like an above average to plus offering. It’s a heavy ground ball inducing pitch with an insane 81% GB%, and a batting average against of .243. It’s also his best barrel missing offering, with a hearty SwStr% of 19.2%. His third offering is a mid-80’s changeup with some slight movement, that misses bats at a good rate (14% SwStr%), and gets the least amount of contact with a batting average against of .200. I wouldn’t categorize Peters as a junkballer, but I wouldn’t label him as a stuff guy either. He’s a pitchability and control type, using advanced sequencing, and the ability to locate any pitch, any where in the zone, in any count. Whether or not his early success, and minor league stats continue is a major question.

Dillon Peters vs The Milwaukee Brewers September 17th, 2017 @ Miller Park Milwaukee, WI

First Inning

Starts inning off with a one pitch out as Peters gets Hernan Perez to fly to left on a 93 MPH fastball. The next at bat he hangs a breaking ball over the plate and Domingo Santana hits it through Dee Gordon for a base hit. You can see Peters curveball below.

Gets into a 2-2 count on Ryan Braun before he gets Braun to bite on a curveball, that the outfielder grounds to third.

After falling behind 2-0 to Travis Shaw, Peters battles back with an inside fastball, and then a high fastball. With the count even at 2-2, the lefty pulls the string on him with the hook to end the inning.

Second Inning

The second frame starts off with a hit by Jesus Aguilar on a weekly struck ball up the middle. A  play the laid out Rojas should have made. But poor defensive positioning, and a subsequent injury trying to make the play led to the ball sneaking through. The next batter is catcher Manny Pina, Peters gets up 0-2 before putting Pina away on a high fastball. For such a groundball heavy starter he’s not afraid to challenge hitters high.

After getting ahead on Keon Broxton, Peters breaks out his offspeed pitch and gets the outfielder to fly out to center on the changeup.

A second slow roller makes it’s way through the middle of the outfield. That’s two hits this inning that might have been avoided with better positioning. The next batter is the pitcher Brandon Woodruff, after falling behind 2-0, Peters evens the count, and gets Woodruff to ground out to second. All in all a solid inning. Peters’ fastball is far better than I anticipated, and he does do a good job of sequencing his pitches.

Third Inning

The inning opens with a lazy flyball off the bat of Hernan Perez. The next batter Domingo Santana works the count full before lying on an outside curveball for ball 4.

The next batter Ryan Braun takes a couple of balls and a strike before grounding a 92 MPH fastball to short for the inning ending double play.

Fourth Inning

This is the inning where the wheels fell off for Peters, as he allowed 8 runs on 6 hits and a walk. The inning started out with a single by Travis Shaw, which was followed by a double off the bat of Jesus Aguilar, which was followed by a single from Manny Pina that drove in the first run. Peters then bore down and struck out Keon Broxton and Orlando Arcia, before walking the pitcher. From there it was double, single, walk, and single, and voila 8 runs!

Summary: As I mentioned earlier in the post I actually intended to profile Peter’s start vs. the Phillies earlier in the week. Despite the Philly start being a better result, his stuff (at least through the first three innings) was much crisper on Sunday than it was on Tuesday. That being said, his 4th inning was disastrous leaving pitches over the heart of the plate, and then walking Woodruff was the straw that broke the camel’s back. I do like Peters three pitch mix, and think he could be a solid, if unspectacular starter in the majors. A infield with stellar defense up the middle would greatly improve Peters’ ability to sustain success. He’s so groundball dependent that the Rojas injury really had an impact as the first three hits of the game were all dribblers that barely escaped the infield.

Razzball Baseball

Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Corey Kluber, CLE 
2 Robbie Ray, ARI 
3 Luis Severino, NYY 
4 Justin Verlander, HOU
5  Chris Sale, BOS
6 Zack Greinke, ARI
7 Clayton Kershaw, LAD 
8 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
9 Carlos Carrasco, CLE  
10 Max Scherzer, WAS
11 Zack Godley, ARI
12 Patrick Corbin, ARI  
13 Sonny Gray, NYY
14 Jacob deGrom, NYM  
15 Madison Bumgarner, SF
16 Carlos Martinez, STL
17 Luke Weaver, STL  
18  Gio Gonzalez, WAS
19 Kyle Hendricks, CHC  
20 Jake Arrieta, CHC  
21 Trevor Bauer, CLE
22 Chase Anderson, MIL  
23 Marcus Stroman, TOR
24 Jose Quintana, CHC
25 Alex Wood, LAD 
26 Yu Darvish, LAD
27 Jose Berrios, MIN   
28 Aaron Nola, PHI  
29 Jon Gray, COL 
30 Lance Lynn, STL
31 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY    
32 Ervin Santana, MIN 
33   Taijuan Walker, ARI   
34 Rich Hill, LAD 
35 Alex Cobb, TB 
36 Tanner Roark, WAS 
37 J.A. Happ, TOR 
38 Charlie Morton, HOU   
39 Mike Clevinger, CLE 
40 Gerrit Cole, PIT 
41 Drew Pomeranz, BOS  
42 Dinelson Lamet, SD
43 Dallas Keuchel, HOU 
44 Dylan Bundy, BAL  
45 Julio Teheran, ATL   
46 Brad Peacock, HOU  
47 Kevin Gausman, BAL       
48 Michael Wacha, STL  
49 Lance McCullers, HOU 
50 Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD 
51 Kenta Maeda, LAD
52 Chris Archer, TB 
53 Zach Davies, MIL  
54 Jeff Samardzija, SF
55 Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS   
56 Cole Hamels, TEX
57 Blake Snell, TB  
58 Marco Estrada, TOR
59 R.A. Dickey, ATL  
60 Danny Duffy, KC   
61 Jake Junis, KC 
62 German Marquez, COL
63 Rick Porcello, BOS
64 Collin McHugh, HOU   
65 Lucas Giolito, CWS   
66 Brandon Woodruff, MIL
67 Jon Lester, CHC
68 Johnny Cueto, SF   
69 Mike Leake, STL 
70 Jordan Montgomery, NYY
71 Andrew Albers, SEA 
72 Jake Odorizzi, TB 
73 Chad Kuhl, PIT 
74 Adam Conley, MIA 
75 Sal Romano, CIN
76 Doug Fister, BOS  
77 Kyle Gibson, MIN
78 John Lackey, CHC 
79 Jose Urena, MIA
80 Rafael Montero, NYM 
81 Tyler Anderson, COL
82 Trevor Williams, PIT
83 Garrett Richards, LAA
84 Sean Newcomb, ATL 
85  Martin Perez, TEX 
86 Andrew Cashner, TEX 
87 Jhoulys Chacin, SD 
88 Ben Lively, PHI  
89 Daniel Mengden, OAK 
90 CC Sabathia, NYY
91 Matt Moore, SF
92 Dan Straily, MIA
93 Robert Stephenson, CIN   
94 Sean Manaea, OAK 
95 Dillon Peters, MIA 
96 Seth Lugo, NYM
97 Matt Boyd, DET
98  Ariel Miranda, SEA 
99 Tyler Mahle, CIN 
100 Kendall Graveman, OAK 
  • Is anyone looking at what Sal Romano is doing the last month? Since August 18th Romano is 3-1 over 6 starts with a 2.09 ERA, 54% GB%, .233 BAA, and a 1.16 WHIP. He’s still not missing tons of bats (9.5% SwStr, 18.5% K%), but he’s keeping the ball in the ballpark and limiting the walks. Both of those matter in Great American Ball Park. Not sure of the long term outlook, but he shouldn’t be dismissed.
  • Great starts from Matt Boyd and Daniel Mengden this past week. Boyd allowed only two baserunners to reach in his masterful complete game shutout vs the White Sox on Sunday. While Mengden only allowed two baserunners to reach in his own 9 inning gem vs the Phillies on Friday. Neither is overly exciting but just goes to show, play the matchups down the stretch.
  • Rest of season Luke Weaver is well within my top 20, I was almost going to put him ahead of C-Mart, but I refrained. That said last two starts who you got C-Mart of the Dream Weaver? I’m taking Luke W.
  • Yesterday’s poor showing makes my Sonny Gray rank look off, but I trust him as much as anyone these last two weeks.
  • Lucas Giolito is getting by on good vibes and bad farts. Seriously he’s 2-2 with a 2.56 ERA, but the underlying peripherals are sending the regression fairies invites to a crash down party on their very best stationary. A 5.30 FIP, 1.71 HR/9, 89.4% left on base, and a .160 BABIP, scream run for the hills. So run for said hills accordingly.

Follow me on Twitter @ProspectJesus and Tune in Tuesday’s @ 9PM (EST) to my Live Baseball Show on Fantrax YouTube.  (and join the Crab Army in the chat)

   
  1. I don't want to say because others in my league read this site. says:
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    Love this site!

    What do you think about McHugh tomorrow vs CWS?

      • I don't want to say because others in my league read this site. says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz:

        Thanks!

        I only have 7 moves left on the year so I have to be stingy. That and I don’t really want to drop anyone.

  2. David says:
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    This list is no good! I wouldn’t wipe my ass with it.

    Seriously, Corbin at #12. Hand me a fist full of dicks for me to shove in my mouth

    Jesus

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @David: Haha gladly open wide!

      Nah rest of season, guys been phenomenal.

    • nick the dick says:
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      @David: Man, those dicks are going to taste terrible as I’m assuming you will be pulling them out of your asshole. This is an ever changing list of trying to predict rest of season balanced with underlying numbers from what have you done for me lately. Give the hardest working man/best source of fantasy writing a break, assclown.

    • Rosscoe says:
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      @David: I’m truly sorry that in your experience more than one dick will be required to fill your fist buddy. Truly I am.

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Rosscoe: Sometimes you got a hunger, and one won’t do.

    • Ball Park Frank says:
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      @David: Had to make this comment hours before his start… What a jinx. Filthy dickfist

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Ball Park Frank: It was happening anyway. Can’t be aggressive without it blowing up in my face.

        • Ball Park Frank says:
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          @Ralph Lifshitz: I was referring to dirty mouth dave

          • Ball Park Frank says:
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            @Ball Park Frank: I hear what you’re saying though. Things can get messy

  3. David says:
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    I was just trying to see who the hero is, it’s you

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @David: Looks like you were right about Corbin. Doesn’t change the fact that going into last night’s matchup against the Padres he was 8-3 with a 3.16 ERA and a 24% K% and a 50% GB rate in the 2nd half.

      I’m cool with you disagreeing with me, just present an argument of who should be ranked above him.

  4. Utah Green Sox says:
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    At this stage in the season, do RoS rankings account for remaining match ups?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Utah Green Sox: Matchups, recent performance, chances of getting shut down or skipped. Honestly at this point in the year it’s a freaking guessing game. You’d have been better starting Matt Boyd and Daniel Mengden over Clayton Kershaw and Max the last week.

  5. lwomack58 says:
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    Would you start Mengden @ Det this week.

    Do you like Brault vs Mil also

    Thanks

  6. Jake Taylor says:
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    I’m playing in a league championship round this week and have 2 moves left. I’m thinking about grabbing Romano to stream tomorrow vs. Boston and then McHough on Sunday vs. Angels. I could also grab Danny Duffy but really not sure about his start on Sat. @ White Sox. For one he’s being limited on pitch count and two he’s been shelled by the Sox this season. Thoughts?

    • Jake Taylor says:
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      @Jake Taylor: Sorry, McHugh.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Jake Taylor: Is go McGugh then Duffy

Comments are closed.