This weekend Jay Bruce was traded to the Phillies, because, as the front office in Philly put it, “We’re sick of our autocorrect writing Bruce Harper. Now we write Bruce Harper and rather than backspacing we can just continue on and we’ve typed out two-thirds of our outfield. Next we have to try to get Michael Chavis, for our issue with the autocorrect Michael Franco.” Guys and five girl readers, the Phillies have a plan! This move also kills two birds with one stone since now Bryce Harper will look so much better by comparison. Before, “Man, Bryce stinks.” After, “Man, Bruce stinks.” Autocorrect and by comparison — done and done! This likely puts David Herrera’s time all but done on the Phils and maybe baseball until the Astros take a chance on him. Yes, Odubel’s real name is David, which is now what we, like the cops, call him. As for Bruce, this is a boost up for him, due to park and lineup. Now he’s a 30-homer hitter with a .225 average and better runs and RBIs. Can I get a middle-case yay? Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Please see our player page for Gio Gonzalez to see projections for today, the next 7 days and rest of season as well as stats and gamelogs designed with the fantasy baseball player in mind.
How the hell is it Week 10 already? That’s nuts. The season is flying by but we’re having a blast with these articles.
I always try to be honest with these streamer pieces and this group of one-start streamers is pretty ugly. That’s why we’re going to go with five two-start streamers and only two one-start streamers for this week. That means it’s going to be imperative to save your weekly moves for Sunday and try to think about the week ahead.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Masahiro Tanaka’s first 11 starts have been about as good as you could’ve hoped when you drafted him around the 30th-40th SP off the board. It felt like he was being ignored in some leagues and came at quite the value. He’s a no doubt starter this week with the way he’s been performing, but it may be a good opportunity to sell high on the veteran pitcher.
Most of the numbers are in line with his career (GB rate, LD rate, K rate, BB rate, 1st strike rate). However, there are a few indicators that he’s been a little lucky and his stuff may not be quite what it has been in previous seasons, specifically his moneymaker, the splitter.
His swinging strike rate is down to 11.1% from 14.1% in 2017 and 15.1% in 2016. His 77% contact rate is the 2nd worst of his career along with career worsts in hard hit rate, launch angle, and average exit velocity allowed. 80.6% left on base rate isn’t completely unsustainable, but it would be the highest of his career.
It’s my belief, and the numbers back me up, that the splitter is not the pitch we’ve seen in previous seasons (below), which is leading to less swing and miss, and harder contact. The vertical movement on the pitch is the worst we’ve ever seen from Tanaka. His swinging strike and K rates are down, and of his 3 primary pitches (FB, Slider, Splitter), the splitter is the only one that has a worse whiff rate at 11.69 down from 22.99 the previous season and easily the worst of his career. The batting average against the split finger is .333 this season compared to .220 and .191 in the previous 2 seasons. Similarly, the slugging percentage is up to .560 this season vs .344 in 2017.
I don’t believe that Tanaka is just going to fall apart and if you need a steady arm to balance your roster, I think he’s fine, but with his current numbers I believe you may be able to sell him high compared to what he provides the rest of the season.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Sorry, but first I must purge myself of all Yu song references. If you don’t like that, Yu Can’t Always Get What Yu Want, but, if Yu try, Yu might get what Yu need, because all Yu Need Is Love, and I Wish Yu Were Here. Yu Give Love A Bad Name, but I’m gonna Run to Yu. Even if Rick rolled, I’m Never Gonna Give Yu Up, and shut don’t go up, but Yu do. Yu Take My Breath Away when Yu pitch well, but Yu Never Give Me Your Money, which makes sense since Yu Don’t Know Me. Without or Without Yu Yu (stutterer!) can put together a solid rotation, but Yu Light Up My Life when it’s the Best of Yu. Have I Told Yu Lately he needed to cut down on his walks? Yesterday, he went 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 11 Ks (zero walks!), ERA at 5.14, and I Know What Yu Did Last Summer (disambiguation: song), but what about now? Don’t Yu (Forget About Me). Did the Rangers closer, Chris Martin, Fix Yu? Remains doubtful, but no walks is Arthur’s Theme (Best Yu Can Do). Any hoo! Yu Darvish might’ve been dealing with a mechanics issue, and maybe now that’s fixed. He does have a near-12 K/9, the only bugaboo is his 7+ BB/9, but if he can tame that he immediately shoots to at least a number two, and stops plopping out number twos. Do Yu Understand (ft Tory Lanez & Gunna). Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
It’s a good time to be a twin! No, not just if you’re a mother on Mom’s day because you got twice the bragging rights. The Minnesota Twins look unstoppable right now posting their third shut out in the past four games including Jake Odorizzi‘s gem Friday night as he extended his scoreless streak to 20 (! ! !) innings. It’s his third start in a row without allowing a run and he’s given up just seven hits in that stretch. The former Ray pitched seven shut out innings against the Tigers, allowed just one hit (a double to Christin Stewart in the first inning) and struck out five, walking none to earn his fifth win. Jake was hammering the strike zone, throwing 66 of his 95 pitches for strikes and lowering his ratios to a gorgeous 2.32 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. That ERA’s good enough for 3rd in the AL, folks. And let us not forget that 43/15 K/BB is making me real happy happy. Dude is hotter than Hunter Johanssen’s twin sister (that’s Scarlett) which is pretty darn hot you guys! If we look at some next level stats, the 0.42 HR/9 is obviously not sustainable, and the 24.8 GB% is suspect. The 2.84 FIP and 4.49 xFIP suggest there is regression coming in the form of some home runs balls but all the stats that matter (9.07 K/9, 17% K/BB, .221 BABIP) show he’s still trending in the right direction. Jake gets the Angels next week and he needs to be owned everywhere, at least while all the Minnesota Moms are showering their Twins with love and Odorizzi is making it look Odoreasy.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Subliminally, I nod my whenever Reynaldo Lopez is mentioned. It’s a disease similar to Jimmy Legs; it’s called Lo-Pez Head. Yesterday, my Lo-Pez Head nodded for all the good he was doing (6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunenrs (3 BBs), 14 Ks, ERA at 6.03). Lopez faced Murmurer’s Row of Detroit and sent them down, down, down, down–how many downs is that? 4 downs at three downs per down, that’s still only 12 downs and he had 14. Damn, that’s too many Ks for even the Alt-Right Sox. Usually Reynaldo Lopez rattles off a bag of Dick Poles. Am I now interested? Do I look *makes nutter rolly finger motion on side of head*? He was once a big-time prospect with a mid-90s MPH fastball that can hit straight-boing type levels. I see his current 11.2 K/9 and get weak in the knees, can barely speak, but his 4.9 BB/9 is his usual Pitfall Harry and his 5.47 xFIP doesn’t scream confidence like a man with 100-point font. I’d continue to view him as a streamer for now. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend for fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yesterday, on the way to the park, Chris Paddack felt under the weather. Not to confuse people, Paddack had the flu, there’s no weather in San Diego. So, Chris Paddack was touching 100, and I’m not talking about his fastball. As Paddack made his way to the mound, he’d cough and: “You rang?” That’s the on-staff hernia nurse. Well, it’s not just the hernia nurse who’s on-staff when it comes to Paddack. Yesterday, he dismantled the Mariners — 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 hit, 1 walk, 9 Ks, ERA at 1.67 in 27 IP, getting some swinging strikes that were…Well, one swing by Daniel Vogelbach was the highest pitch generating a swing all year at four-feet and eight-inches aka “an Altuve.” Currently, Paddack sits at 10 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 3.80 xFIP, and, Steamer’s rest-of-the-season projections for him are 3.49 ERA with a 10 K/9 in 120 IP, i.e., a top 40 starter in all mixed leagues. With all his commercials, Justin Verlander can push his Flonase down our throats (noses?), but Paddack pitching is sick — God bless you! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
*wavy lines indicating a dream sequence* It’s the winter of 2019. And I’m wearing pants. Okay, that’s not realistic, but it’s a dream sequence, so I’m going to go with it! Crap, I have to do my rankings. Quick, rank Gregory Polanco in the top 40 outfielders overall, because you like how he hit more fly balls last year than previous years and think 23 homers is repeatable with maybe more. Also, he’s got some 10-15 steal-speed! But, since this is a very realistic dream other than the whole pants thing, someone, who you can’t remember now, told you Polanco won’t be back until June. Better check the news reports, even though that’s rather boring for a dream sequence. Yup, Polanco’s not due back until June. Frantically, by any man’s measure but calmly by yours, move Polanco all the way down so you’ll never draft him. Now fall into a kiddie pool so you wake to think you had a wet dream. *wavy lines* Whoa, that dream was crazy in its mundaneness! So, here we are on April 23rd and Grey doesn’t freakin’ own Polanco because reports in March were saying he wouldn’t be back until a much later date. *bites stress doll’s head off* I’m good. Thanks. Yes, I would own Polanco in every league; he can be a top 40 outfielder. Yesterday, he went 2-for-4, 2 runs, which was better than Jesus Aguilar’s entire season. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Auction drafting reminds me of playing poker. Having a plan of attack, choosing the right hand to play, and then subsequently winning the hand while finding out that you could’ve made a lot more money if you had played it correctly. If you’re patient enough, play the rights hands and stick to the calculations, it’ll work out to your benefit more often than not, but are you that patient?
Can you let a player go under value because he’s not part of your plan? Can you avoid getting sucked into the auction and over paying for your guy? Can you avoid killing your budget faster than a college kid on spring break?
Hindsight is 20/20 and that is rarely more apparent than over the course of an auction. I don’t believe I’ve ever left an auction without regret. However, even if you don’t stick to your plan, there are ways to maneuver the auction to make your team build complete.
My plan coming into the auction was similar to my draft strategy for most of my leagues. I wanted to concentrate my bat spending on top of the order, high average, speed guys. Accomplished this with my combination of Ronald Acuna Jr. and Trea Turner. I balanced that speed with power in Edwin Encarnacion, Miguel Andujar, Justin Upton, and Max Muncy.
For my pitching, I took a more aggressive stance than normal and only wanted one ace and two established closers. I got Max Scherzer and then grabbed Edwin Diaz, Sean Doolittle, and Pedro Strop late.Please, blog, may I have some more?
With these top 100 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball, I’ve finished our (my) 2019 fantasy baseball rankings for positions. Still coming will be a top 100 overall and top 500 to see how all the positions mesh together like your mesh Redskins jersey that meshes with your burgundy sweatpants. Trust me, when you see how long this post is, you’ll be glad I kept this intro short. As always, my projections are included, and where I see tiers starting and stopping. If you want an explanation of tiers, go back to the top 10 overall and start this shizz all over again. Anyway, here’s the top 100 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?