Taking a look back at last week’s predictions I had Randy Dobnak as my two-start pitcher of the week and although we haven’t seen his second start I like the results from his first game (5 IP, 1 ER, 3 Ks.) Sure we’d all like more K’s — but I even told you that in last week’s article. What?! You didn’t read last week’s article? Here: “You’d like to see more than a 4.8 K/9 — but take that liquid gold ratio and the guaranteed wins from the Twins.” Oh yea — he got the win too baby.
My deeper league two-start pitcher of the week was Tyler Mahle. Well, he made his first start and shutout the Indians over 6 innings allowing only 3 baserunners with 6 strikeouts. The Reds rewarded him by — removing him from the starting rotation for Wade Miley?! The same Wade Miley who has allowed 6 ERs in 3.1 IP so far this year? Yep, the very same!
This week I’m nominating Trevor Williams and Tyler Anderson as my two-start pitcher adds of the week. Hopefully, neither of them throws a complete game shutout only to be replaced by Francisco Liriano!
Code Green: This area is reserved for your Gerrit Cole’s, your Jacob deGrom’s, your Patrick Corbin’s when he is facing two weak opponents. I’m not even going to waste the lactic acid in typing about these guys. If you need me to tell you to start Shane Bieber in a two-start week you need more help than I can provide at this cost.
| Rank | Name | Team | L/R | ERA | OPP1 | OPS vL/vR | OPP2 | OPS vL/vR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Flaherty | StL | R | 2.57 | @CHC | 0.790 | CIN | 0.719 |
| 2 | Chris Paddack | SD | R | 4.91 | @TEX | 0.603 | HOU | 0.691 |
| 3 | Zack Greinke | HOU | R | 2.53 | COL | 0.817 | @SD | 0.773 |
| 4 | Blake Snell | TBR | L | 2.08 | @NYY | 0.796 | TOR | 0.603 |
| 5 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE | R | 3.22 | @PIT | 0.559 | DET | 0.664 |
| 6 | Kenta Maeda | MIN | R | 2.66 | MIL | 0.635 | @KC | 0.725 |
Love:
- Of all of these studs I’m really loving Carrasco and Maeda’s matchups. Normally they wouldn’t be ranked this high, but when you’re facing off against the teams ranked 30th and 29th in OBP vs righties (Carrasco) or against the teams ranked 28th and 23rd (Maeda) you give ‘em the bump they deserve.
Hate::
- Paddack vs HOU: Paddack showed some warts in his last start letting up 3 HRs (6 ERs) in only 3 innings against the Dodgers. Paddack is actually third-worst in the league right now in HR/9. It should help him that the Rangers and Astros are 30th and 26th in HRs vs righties this year, but with Paddack’s long ball struggles — maybe they’ll move up those rankings a bit.
Code Blue: Now we’re getting interesting! These are your “not-quite-ready-for-code-green players.” These guys have either been performing really well and I’d still start them regardless of match-up — or have two easy match-ups that I can’t let you pass up their double-dip for this week.
| Rank | Name | Team | L/R | ERA | OPP1 | OPS vL/vR | OPP2 | OPS vL/vR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dylan Bundy | LAA | R | 1.57 | SF | 0.683 | @OAK | 0.721 |
| 8 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | TOR | L | 4.05 | @BAL | 0.926 | @TB | 0.780 |
| 9 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | R | 3.08 | STL | 0.704 | CWS | 0.707 |
| 10 | Ross Stripling | LAD | R | 3.97 | SEA | 0.697 | @COL | 0.817 |
| 11 | Mike Minor | TEX | L | 5.49 | SD | 0.749 | @SEA | 0.560 |
| 12 | Nate Pearson | TOR | R | 5.11 | @BAL | 0.786 | @TB | 0.763 |
| 13 | Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | R | 2.31 | TB | 0.763 | @NYM | 0.760 |
| 14 | Griffin Canning | LAA | R | 4.42 | SF | 0.683 | @OAK | 0.721 |
| 15 | Jordan Montgomery | NYY | L | 5.17 | BOS | 0.779 | @NYM | 0.777 |
| 16 | Dylan Cease | CHW | R | 3.26 | DET | 0.664 | @CHC | 0.790 |
| 17 | Chris Bassitt | OAK | R | 2.42 | @ARI | 0.711 | LAA | 0.789 |
Love:
- Miike Minor: So far Minor is having a rough follow-up to his 2019 All-Star season. It hasn’t been all bad though — in his first and most recent start he only allowed 1 ER in 9 IP. The two starts between: 11 ER in 10.2 IP. That most recent start was 4 shut-out innings against these same Mariners. Working in his favor: the Mariners own the second-worst team batting average (.180) vs. lefties. The Padres have been a little better, but not by much hitting .231 vs south-paws (22nd.) One thing that’s interesting with Minor is so far his home/away splits have been flipped from last season. Last season his ERA was more than a run better than it was at home. This year his away ERA is 9.28 and his home ERA is 1.00. Granted — it’s a totally different home.
Hate:
- Hyun-Jin Ryu: Another Cy Young finalist from 2019 who isn’t living to that billing has two tough match-ups. One of them might surprise you, but the SECOND-PLACE BALTIMORE ORIOLES have been hitting lefties pretty well so far. They’ve got the second-best OBP and third-best slugging percentage against lefties. The Rays are no cake-walk either. They’ve scored the most runs in the American League so far. We’re only 5 to 21 games into the season so all of these numbers could course-correct, but for now it’s looking like Ryu could be in for a tough week.
Code Yellow: Maybe these guys have been underperforming this year — but have one or two cake-walk opponents that I think you could take advantage of. Or someone who is doing well this year — or has done pretty well in the recent past, but is facing a Yankees/Dodgers double dose. Or maybe they just have a case of jaundice and I want to be cheeky.
| Rank | Name | Team | L/R | ERA | OPP1 | OPS vL/vR | OPP2 | OPS vL/vR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kyle Freeland | COL | L | 2.45 | @HOU | 0.823 | @LAD | 0.645 |
| 19 | Austin Voth | WAS | R | 3.21 | @ATL | 0.827 | MIA | 0.714 |
| 20 | Luke Weaver | ARI | R | 11.85 | OAK | 0.721 | @SF | 0.683 |
| 21 | Zach Davies | SD | R | 2.78 | @TEX | 0.603 | HOU | 0.691 |
| 22 | Trevor Williams | PIT | R | 3.98 | CLE | 0.587 | MIL | 0.635 |
| 23 | Matthew Boyd | DET | L | 10.24 | @CHW | 0.874 | @CLE | 0.628 |
| 24 | Marco Gonzales | SEA | R | 3.97 | @LAD | 0.807 | TEX | 0.603 |
| 25 | Touki Toussaint | ATL | R | 7.27 | WAS | 0.654 | PHI | 0.733 |
| 26 | Anibal Sanchez | WAS | R | 9.69 | @ATL | 0.827 | MIA | 0.714 |
| 27 | Mike Fiers | OAK | R | 6.86 | @ARI | 0.711 | LAA | 0.789 |
| 28 | Brandon Bielak | HOU | R | 1.76 | COL | 0.817 | @SD | 0.773 |
| 29 | David Peterson | NYM | L | 2.91 | @MIA | 0.711 | NYY | 0.796 |
| 30 | Kris Bubic | KC | L | 5.40 | @MIN | 0.698 | MIN | 0.698 |
| 31 | Tyler Anderson | SF | L | 3.63 | @LAA | 0.660 | ARI | 0.646 |
Love:
- Tyler Anderson: Normally Tyler Anderson would find himself in the Code Red territory because he’s pretty unreliable. But I like him this week against the Angels who are 24th in wRC+ vs lefties and the Diamondbacks who are 25th. In the right matchup, Anderson can shine.
- Trevor Williams: Williams isn’t much of a strikeout guy — for example this year he has a career-high in K/9 and it’s only 8.0. That number might creep even closer to 10.0 this week. Williams finds himself on the hill against the Brewers who have the second-highest K/rate vs. righties and the Indians who are 4th. I’m going to call him my two-start pitcher of the week! Congratulations Trevor!
Hate:
- Kyle Freeland: Freeland’s bounceback from his 6.73 ERA disaster last season has been a good story — but he has his toughest match-up this week facing the 2017 World Series competitors — the Astros and Dodgers.
- Matthew Boyd: most hits allowed, most earned runs allowed, a FIP over 6. I don’t know what more I need to say really. He shouldn’t be owned.
Code Red: Starting these players will be no Baja Blast! Bad numbers, bad opponents, bad attitudes. I’d rather get shocked with a High Voltage from touching a Live Wire in my Pitch Black basement than put these guys in my lineup.
| Rank | Name | Team | L/R | ERA | OPP1 | OPS vL/vR | OPP2 | OPS vL/vR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Martin Perez | BOS | L | 3.38 | @NYY | 0.796 | @BAL | 0.926 |
| 33 | Gio Gonzalez | CHW | L | 6.61 | DET | 0.948 | @CHC | 0.742 |
| 34 | Jordan Yamamoto | MIA | R | 9.82 | NYM | 0.760 | @WAS | 0.654 |
| 35 | Jordan Lyles | TEX | R | 6.06 | SD | 0.773 | @SEA | 0.697 |
| 36 | Daniel Ponce de Leon | StL | R | 6.75 | @CHC | 0.790 | CIN | 0.719 |
| 37 | Wade LeBLanc | BAL | L | 7.13 | TOR | 0.603 | BOS | 0.779 |
| 38 | Brett Anderson | MIL | L | 4.91 | @MIN | 0.698 | @PIT | 0.827 |
| 39 | Zack Godley | BOS | R | 8.16 | PHI | 0.733 | @BAL | 0.786 |
| 40 | Justin Dunn | SEA | R | 4.85 | @LAD | 0.807 | TEX | 0.603 |
| 41 | Tom Eshelman | BAL | R | 3.65 | TOR | 0.736 | BOS | 0.709 |
| 42 | Antonio Senzatela | COL | R | 3.91 | @HOU | 0.691 | @LAD | 0.807 |
| 43 | Wade Miley | CIN | L | 16.20 | @KC | 0.800 | @STL | 0.485 |
| 44 | Tyler Alexander | DET | L | 4.76 | @CHW | 0.874 | @CLE | 0.628 |
| 45 | Robert Gsellman | NYM | R | 9.00 | @MIA | 0.714 | NYY | 0.818 |
| 46 | Trevor Cahill | SF | R | 0.00 | @LAA | 0.789 | ARI | 0.711 |
Love:
- Jordan Yamamoto @ WSH: Two facts working in Yamamoto’s favor: Nationals are 26th in wRC+.vs. righties. 26th in wRC+ at home (2-8 record.) One more thing working his favor: for his brief career lefties are hitting only .168 against him and in the Nationals lineup, they have 4 lefties including Juan Soto. Yea, Soto crushes indiscriminately — but maybe ‘Moto could get the best of Soto.
Hate:
- The rest.
