Oh, I get it, it was a C lineup for a team whose B lineup ain’t an A lineup. Understood, my dude, don’t be rude. *smacks face* No more rhyming and I mean it! Anyone want a peanut? But yesterday showed the flashes of greatness from Carlos Carrasco — 8 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 14 Ks, ERA at 3.29, and notched 200 IP for the first time in his career — that he is constantly hinting at, and I don’t want to end a sentence with at — dah! If only he’d stop with the hinting. Paint the corners — great! Paint a picture of an ace — super! But we’re not playing Pictionary here, stop with the hints! He’s 30 years old already. At what point is it no longer what he can do and rather this is who he is? No question mark actually. This is it methinks, I said dressed like a leprechaun. Some amazing starts, some lackluster starts, some random DL stint, some of the parts is greater than whole. Yes, I know I spelled sum wrong, don’t make me go back there! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
With their win last night, the Cubs clinched the NL Central division title. That means they’ll be rolling with the hangover lineup on Thursday, where almost no regular starters (if any) will be in the lineup. Cardinals starter Lance Lynn won’t have to worry about facing Rizzo or Bryant; instead, he’ll be going against guys like Mike Freeman. This is an outstanding situation to take advantage of, as Lynn will only cost you $7,100. There’s certainly some risk involved, considering Lynn gave up eight earned runs his last time out, but that start was likely just an outlier. As they say, scared money don’t make no money, so roll with Lynn as he takes on the barely-sober Cubs.
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If you’re at all familiar with management theory, then you’re probably aware generally of the “Peter Principle”. The concept is simple, managers rise to the level of their incompetence. Here’s where you think about your current manager, and snicker. Are you done? Okay, so it’s concept that many of us can relate to, some of us first hand. But what does this have to do with the subject of today’s profile Marlins starter Dillon Peters? Ahhh, his name is Peters? It works right? But perhaps there’s more there. Or maybe I’m overthinking. Yeah, totally overthinking it. Then again, is it possible that Peters has risen to his own level of potential incompetence here in the Bigs? His numbers over the last two years in the minors have been phenomenal, rarely letting up multiple earned runs in a game. In fact over the last two years, across 37 starts between high A and AA, Peters has amassed a 21-9 record with a 2.11 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .224 BAA, 7.5 K/9, and 1.74 Bb/9. While allowing just 5 balls to leave the park in 191.2 innings. So to say he’s on a great run the last few years is an understatement. Will that continue here in the majors or is he due for a heavy regression? Through Peters first few starts he’s been solid but lucky. I actually intended to profile his start last Tuesday at Philadelphia, but pivoted to Sunday’s turn for the rescheduled home game vs the Brew Crew. I figured in case things went awry in Milwaukee recency bias would win out. Here’s what I saw.Please, blog, may I have some more?
So, where does Mookie Betts go in 2018? That’s what we all want to know, right? That and WHAT TIME IS IT?! Sorry, was listening to Steppin’ To The A.M. I was not listening to Time to Get Ill, however, because I don’t like the Beastie Boys, but it might be more appropriate with The Bettsie Boy, Mookie. Home run distance is a weird thing. Well, maybe not weird, but hard to trust. Yeah, that’s the ticket, said like that Jon Lovitz character. In hindsight, it’s obvious. Mookie had so many Just Enough home runs last year, of course, he’s not hitting as many this year, but I thought there would be enough mitigating factors to lessen Betts’ drop off. He’s young — power still peaking; he’s in a good park — Pesky/Wall; the lineup — oh, that lineup. Didn’t play out that way for power and average. His average is nearly fifty points off of last year, and his power will end likely down about five homers from last year. Not huge? Well, that is around a 15% drop — even after his big game yesterday of 3-for-5, 6 RBIs and his 20th and 21st homer. So, what does all this mean for next year? I think he’s going to be undervalued, and I expect a bounce back of sorts. Likely closer to a 27-homer guy than his 30+ last year, but there’s no way he hits near-.265 as he is right now. He’s hitting as many line drives as last year, hitting the ball harder, in general, and a .267 BABIP. He’s gotta be one of the unluckiest hitters this year. He’s basically hitting line drives up the middle, but a squirrel is knocking it down into a fielder’s glove. Maybe he’s not Mookie Best this year, but I’m not counting out Mookie Ballgame yet. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Greetings and welcome back to the Mike Maher Hurricane Irma Shelter. My apologies for taking last week off, but it seems like I got out of South Florida just in time. I am now safely in the Pocono Mountains, where hurricanes dare not stray. Blizzards, on the other hand…
Hopefully, you all survived a week without me, especially as rosters expanded and probable pitcher lists were thrown further into confusion. This is the time of the year where it really gets dicey. We are all either in the home stretch or are in the playoffs in H2H leagues, while daily lineups and probable pitchers are more unpredictable than ever. Aces and top hitters for teams with guaranteed roster spots are getting extra rest now that each team has roughly 115 players available for each game. It’s not just Dusty Baker and Dave Roberts making our lives difficult anymore. Now, it’s all managers.
These two-start starters lists, regardless of where you look each week, are never going to be 100% accurate. Too much can change throughout the week and even over the weekend. These are just projections based on recent history and how the schedules line up. This week, multiply that by about a gajillion. If expanding rosters (and bullpens) weren’t enough to throw things off, Hurricane Irma and her friends are making sure to take care of the rest.
This week more than ever, you will need to double and triple check these starters on Sunday night and Monday morning. Some are all but guaranteed to change between now and then. Now, for the value picks from Streamonator this week:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Watching Luis Castillo is officially an ASMR trigger. *insert onomatopoeia of satisfied exhale, picks up invisible fork and knife, mimes cutting up satisfied exhale, eats exhale* Do you see how Castillo’s got me? I’m eating satisfied exhales. Can I write the 2018 fantasy baseball sleeper post right now for Luis Castillo? TFW you see Castillo: Insert Oprah’s o face around Gayle King. CASTILLO MAKING ME CRAZY! And not eating sugar for six days isn’t helping. This Whole30 Diet got me like: insert crazy-googly eyes. I got Biggie Smalls eyes right now. *smacks face* Be coherent, Grey! Sorry, about that. Yesterday, Luis Castillo went 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 10 Ks, ERA at 3.12. His surface perfs: 9.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.40 xFIP, averages 98 MPH, and now I’m lightheaded again. Okay, need to save something for his 2018 sleeper post. As for this year, this was his last start, unless you count Strat-o-Matic starts I’m making with him all winter. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I shall open this column by quoting September 1st Grey: “I’m not enthused by the guys headed to the majors this September.” I agree completely – I thought there would be a lot more intriguing under-the-radar call-ups to discuss, both for NL or AL-only help over the next few weeks, or to grab with an eye on next year in keeper leagues. Instead, I’m reminded that keeping one’s head in the fantasy baseball game can be less fun and more chore-like with each passing day as we inch towards October.
In September, there’s a lot more inventory, but less of value. Veteran players on non-contenders are getting rested more often, as are young studs on playoff contenders. Starting pitchers are hitting innings limits. And since expanded rosters mean that there’s often no need to officially DL players, it can be hard to tell who is going to get at bats at all, and who is pretty much done for the year. If you’re still actively managing a fantasy team in a deep league at this time of year, there may be more names than ever to choose from on waivers… the tricky part is finding anyone who might actually help your team over the next three and a half weeks.
Now, just since I started writing this, news has arrived that J.P. Crawford and Luiz Gohara have reached the show, so things are getting at least a little more interesting. Meanwhile, here’s this weeks handful of guys who may still be floating around in the deepest of leagues:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Maybe because I am not Prospector Ralph aka Endorphin Ralph aka The Prospector aka Prospect Jesus aka Peter, Paul and ‘I Know Prospects’ Mary Well aka The Pro-Spectulator aka I Am Still Not Beating Grey In Our League And Grey Beat Me To Waivers For Rhysus aka No, You’re Minor, I’m Major, But I Know Minors Just Not Like That aka Ralph Lifshitz, but this year’s September call-ups are kinda sad. Do I like Jack Flaherty? Sure, Flaherty is must SCTV! But he’s kinda more to do with matchups. Tyler Glasnow? Well, more on him in this afternoon’s Buy column. Willie Calhoun? Great, but where does he play? Harrison Bader and Franklin Barreto? Haven’t we gone down that road already? I would absolutely grab any September call-up if he was helping me in a redraft league, but the choice between Willie Calhoun platooning and, say, Howie Kendrick playing? Kendrick all day, and twice on Muesday, that magical day between Monday and Tuesday. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Many, many years ago the old west was littered with once horse towns. This made travel problematic. With one horse you were destined to stand in endless lines waiting to get where you were going. Then again what’s the point of living in a one horse town? You might as well just walk to a town with multiple horses. Or maybe you could take the horse to a town with more horses and trade that horse for some magic beans….I think I just smoked my self stupid. This is just a really long and confusing way to say the Miami Marlins are a one prospect system. Seriously, I’d like to own Braxton Garrett in leagues that are 16 teams and shallower and that’s it. If you want to pick nits and tell me there’s another horse in this town have at it. I’ll be too busy walking to the next town over that has multiple horses. I suppose it should be noted that the Marlins have graduated a solid number of prospects over the past 5 years (Yelich, Ozuna, Realmuto, Jose Fernandez RIP) but have also given away a number as well. Players like Francis Martes, Josh Naylor, and Chris Paddack come to mind, and all they have to show for it is Jarrod Cosart. That’s bad business. While this will be my shortest system review of the year it’s for good reason, there’s not a lot to write about. It’s the Top Miami Marlins Prospects, hey at least it’s over. Oh wait, yeah you’re just starting it. Sorry…Please, blog, may I have some more?