This is my answer track to my Masahiro Tanaka sleeper.  If that sleeper was on the shallow side, this is the polar opposite.  As the Guru once said, this post is for leagues that are deep and much too complicated.  Guru from Gang Starr, not Guru who used to write for this site.  It’s funny how I came upon Trevor Williams.  Not haha funny, because I’m not a clown.  For our five lady readers, do you know the benefit of having sex with a clown?  He can take the condom afterwards and make balloon animals.  Any hoo!  I noticed Trevor Williams when I was looking for Trevor Bauer.  I told you, funny!  That means, up next for a sleeper post, Ted Williams!  Then I will talk about a Williams and Sonoma catalog.  What’s that, you love Trevor Bauer and want to talk about him?  #Metoo.  I’m not using that right, am I?  Carry on, Grey!  Carry on!  If Trevor Williams were just, say, Trevor Williams who we never want to talk about, and not Trevor Williams who I want to talk about, we still wouldn’t be here, if it wasn’t for this one little stat:  21.5.  What is this 21.5 that I speak of?  Soon answers will be revealed like the last five minutes of Law & Order.  Clang-clang.  So, what can we expect from Trevor Williams for 2018 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Since I can’t stand to see you in suspense, I’m just going to tell you what 21.5 is.  Not that I empathize with your anguish over not knowing, it’s that your mouth is agape and that’s a problem for many reasons.  Slack-jawed is no way to be, which sounds like John Lennon lyrics.  21.5 is Trevor Williams’ fastball pitch value.  This isn’t everything, obviously.  A great change, curve or other pitch can lead to a fastball looking better.  He did throw the fastball a ton, however.  71.7% of the time Williams went to his fastball, which was the 4th most in the majors.  The top 4 is nothing exciting, so I won’t even go there.  Though, he was also top four for fastball value at 21.5, the three guys above him (with 130+ IP):  Verlander, Sale and Paxton.  So, now we’re talking.  Also, the top 20 for fastball value is a lot more interesting of a group than the usage group.  Williams can reach upper 90s with his fastball, which is enticing, but check this out — he’s a guy with good command too.  Last year, his BB/9 of 3.1 is a little meh with a side of decent, but he had years in the minors where he had a 2 BB/9.  Here’s a quick formula I just concocted — throws fast + has command = fro-yo.  Okay, was supposed to equal “yum,” but I might’ve forgot to carry a one.  His Hard Contact rate was 28.9%, which was the same as, ya know, Corey Kluber.  There’s also PNC which won’t hurt Williams.  At 26 years old in April, he’s about to enter his 2nd full year, which discourages me a little, because I like guys in their third full season, but Williams is so off the radar, he’s not even a beeping green dot on an air traffic controller’s screen, which looks like it’s from 1982.  Ever notice this?  Computer graphics are insane everywhere, except on air traffic controllers’ screens.  “Airplane safety is our utmost priority, so here’s our newest air traffic controller screens that look like you should be playing Centipede on them.”  Williams should be in the Pirates’ rotation, since he had the best ERA last year of any of the Pirates starters.  If you take out two trouncings (eat a D, autocorrect, that’s totally a word!) against the Dodgers and Cardinals, he had a 3.20 ERA in 23 starts, across 132 2/3 IP.  Yes, I’m a little concerned Glasnow will finally put it together, or Steven Brault will get a look and push out Williams, but Williams had a much better ERA (3.96) as a starter than a reliever (5.40), and a 3.35 ERA in the 2nd half.  This is all whatevs since his draft day price is so dirt cheap, which means you won’t soil yourself drafting him.  For 2018, I’ll give Trevor Williams the projections of 11-9/3.87/1.27/158 in 178 IP with room for upside.

   
  1. Dodger Rabbit says:
    (link)

    Greyt work as always!

  2. Cory says:
    (link)

    Another great sleeper post, thanks Grey!

    Love having fantasy baseball talk in January, it makes the freezing cold temperatures in PA not so bad… I have a keeper league dilemma where I can keep $120 worth of players. My big 4 exceeds $120 and it consists of Harper ($40), Rizzo ($33), Machado ($34) and G. Sanchez ($16). My question is… Who goes? The more money that is dropped the more players I can keep out of – (Ozuna, Ian Happ, Albies, Luis Castillo, Luke Weaver)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Cory: Thanks! How many teams?

      • Cory says:
        (link)

        @Grey: We have 10 teams.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Tough call, I’d lose Rizzo

      • Cory says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thanks Grey!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

      • Member Berries says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        is this the same if Rizzo has 2B eligibility?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Eligibility doesn’t really matter for him

          • Member Berries says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            just curious since it’s an interest call – Machado loses SS and Rizzo gains 2B but 3B is pretty thin… what do i know? leave it to great Fantasy Master Lothario

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Meh, top guys don’t really gain anything from eligibility… You still need a 1B right?

              • Cory says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Just curious, what is the reasoning? Depth at 1B greater than other positions? Looking forward to rankings next week!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Depth at 1B is greater, but position scarcity doesn’t really add anything, it’s overrated

                  • Cory says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: Agreed, so then why Rizzo over the other players?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Cause Rizzo is solid

  3. 50 Shades of WHIP says:
    (link)

    Thanks for the sneaky late round pick, Grey! I’ll ‘stache this away for later!

  4. Walter Matthau says:
    (link)

    Very nice tout for auction leagues thanks.

  5. mcgaffer says:
    (link)

    January Grey-

    Need some keeper help, just not sure how to value pitchers in this new power world.
    $280 budget, keep forever at $5 inflation annually
    Keep 2 of:
    Correa-$43
    Blackmon-$43
    Severino-$6

    OR-potentially trade both correa and Blackmon for Altuve, $51, then keep Altuve and Sevy

    If no trade, which 2?
    Do you like the trade option better than the stay put option?

    THNX!

      • mcgaffer says:
        (link)

        12 teams, we each keep 2 dudes

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I’d want Altuve

          • mcgaffer says:
            (link)

            Thanks, I’ll try to get the deal done. However, if the Altuve owner balks

            which 2 of the 3 above would you keep?

            Thnx again

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Correa-$43, Severino

              • mcgaffer says:
                (link)

                One last twist on this, the Altuve owner said nope, but would give us Goldshmidt @ 57 beans. Prolly too expensive I think given our 280 budget 12 teamer with $5 inflation
                So;
                Goldy at 57
                or
                Correa at 43

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Correa, but both are expensive tho

                  • mcgaffer says:
                    (link)

                    Agreed, thnx amigo!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      No problem

  6. sh says:
    (link)

    Love the sleepers Grey.

    Question, I am in a 20 team dynasty league. I am in need of a 3B. I was offered Moustakas for my Alford and Kepler, is that a fair offer, he also has Suarez, I can possibly get for Alford and Conner Greene, he is a big Jays fan.I have Hoskins, Benintendi, Margot and Acuna for my OF this season.
    Thanks for the help.

    • Slappy Jack says:
      (link)

      @sh: If anyone will trade you anything for C.Greene, you probably should do that.
      Plus Suarez 26yr old > Moistakiss 29
      meh 2cents

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @sh: I’d take Moustakas if you’re ready to win this year

      • sh says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        I would say next year would my year, would you still deal for the Moose or Suarez at that point.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I’d hold then

  7. cmutimmah says:
    (link)

    Based on the amount of tech in an air traffic controller tower, or say, a nuclear submarine, the graphical output is ugly. But if you’ve ever seen the output for autonomous technology using the same lidar/radar information, it’s rectangles and lines.

    So, to be Frank Tanana, autonomous vehicles use technology in boats and submarines to “see” the world. Therefore, when an autonomous car sees you crossing the street, it pretty much thinks you’re a floating rectangular cube.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @cmutimmah: So, why is that? And maybe I am a floating rectangular cube…

  8. FrankGrimes says:
    (link)

    How dare you joke about #metoo after that poignant Oprah speech.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      If Oprah wins, does everyone get a free car and a Wally Lamb book?

      • FrankGrimes says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        Haha. You’re an insider. Why does ron Howard look like that? Wtf.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          HAHA, Howard is like the only person…If you were to take baby picture of Ron Howard and current day picture, it would look like they’re the same person…

          • Syllogism says:
            (link)

            @Grey: lolz …. nice

  9. Bombers says:
    (link)

    Freeman vs Jose Ramirez?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      My rankings come out next week

      • Bombers says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Grey, Buddy ‘ole pal… help a brother out… I’m super deep at MI and don’t have a keeper 1B. Should I swap Jose Ramirez for Freeman?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, take Freeman

          • Test Kitchen says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Thanks Grey!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              No problem

  10. Dill says:
    (link)

    Another great sleeper post !

    Would you do my Betts for his Senzel and Torres in dynasty ?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! I wouldn’t

  11. TroutWars says:
    (link)

    Nice write up. Trevor Williams is interesting. His WHIP is trending nice and he had a HR/9 under 1 last year. Which is nice.

    Keeper feeler

    8 team keeper league. 6 X 6 OPS league. Can only keep 3 of the following. Who would you take?

    Schoop
    Merrifield
    Pollock
    Schwarber
    Pham
    Mazara
    Puig

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Schoop, Merrifield, Mazara — tough call tho

      • TroutWars says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Nice. I forgot about Domingo. Change anything?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Domingo’s above Mazara

  12. swaggerjackers says:
    (link)

    Looking forward to your 2018 rankings.

    These sleeper SP posts lately have all been solid.

      • Member Berries says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        this is awesome – great insight too

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

      • Raoul Duke says:
        (link)

        @Grey: That is awesome he took the time to respond to that guy’s questions about his slider.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ha, yeah

  13. Willy Mo says:
    (link)

    Nice def keep him in mind late thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No disagreement? C’mon, Wily Mo!

  14. Ben says:
    (link)

    Struggling with a keeper dilemma for a 10-team, obp auction league (players can be retained at-cost for a maximum of 2 years and then released back into auction pool):
    Can keep up to 7 players; 4 OFs, 10 P slots.

    Options include:
    Justin Upton $3 (1 year left)
    Justin Turner $9 (2 years left)
    Marwin Gonzalez $1 (2 years left)
    Alex Bregman $1 (1 year left)
    Michael Conforto $2 (2 years left)
    Miguel Sano $6 (2 years left)

    Felix Rivero $5 (2 years left)
    Robert Osuna $2 (1 year left)
    Aaron Nola $2 (1 year left)
    James Paxton $1 (1 year left)
    Luis Severino $1 (2 years left)
    Luis Castillo $3 (2 years left)

    I see Nola-Paxton-Severino as definites. Then leaning towards Bregman, Upton, Sano, and Conforto depending on the health outlook in March. What do you think? Anyone I’m overlooking? Appreciated the Castillo post, but it kills me that I might have to lose him.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I agree with your seven, will depend on Conforto’s health for sure

      • Ben says:
        (link)

        @Grey: thanks! If conforto is not a great option, who would you slate as next best?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I guess Castillo but I hate keeping so many SPs

  15. Saints says:
    (link)

    Hay Grey in a dynasty would you trade Odor against Darvish ?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Against?

      • Saints says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        I would get Odor and give up Darvish 1for1.
        I think thats a bit of a stretch but if i cant get something on top i like this deal.
        What do you think about it ?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Sounds fair

  16. Uncle Remus says:
    (link)

    Ok I give up. How do I put a pic or image in the box next to my name? thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Upload pic to Gravatar.com

      • Uncle Remus says:
        (link)

        @Grey: cool I did. So each time I post with my email address it shows. That simple? Lol

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          You got it!

  17. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    A guru mention? Is that even legal? And should I assume I’ll be getting a former hack, I mean writer mention in one of your posts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Haha, member when Guru lasted two stops on the tour? HA! You see the tweet I linked to in above comments?

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: haha.Thats Twitter rad…Guru was a train wreck reconstructed in an empty bottle of whiskey

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I wonder if Guru’s dead, being real… Hope not…

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Grey: I wonder that too. I assume he’s living under a bridge drinking pruno made in an old toilet

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Damn, that sounds sadly accurate… I wonder if he’s the bum living in my alley…

              • J-FOH says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Thats a long journey to post up in your alley. Seriously though all I hear lately is the homeless problem in LA. Is it that bad? What drives me batty is that the numbers exploded when they shut down all the state mental health hospitals years a go, where, no bullshit, they bussed them into Venice and downtown and just dropped them off. Yet, no one brings up that as a part of the solution. Mayor fuck nuts is out of his mind with his solutions.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  It’s a nice alley tho! I heard Reagan was the problem, and why Santa Monica is flooded with homeless people… The downtown area now is tent city and crazy town…

                  • J-FOH says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: I don’t think it falls on Reagan. The state hospitals closed down in the mid to late 90’s. If you want to blame him for anything blame him for all the gangs. When he ended all the afterschool programs, as governor, that is when the gangs started to grow. Because its your job to raise your kids, not the taxpayers. Way to go Ronny, no the taxpayers pay to incarcerate all these guys.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, I’m not sure, I just remember dating someone who lived in SM and she said Reagan was to blame for the huge amount of homeless people there, but she was also from Berkeley, so maybe she had heard that from her hippie parents…

                    • J-FOH says:
                      (link)

                      @J-FOH: she probably meant Pete Wilson (governor when all that went down) but to her all Republicans look the same. I bet Oaktown would know.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I think she might’ve been right, I just Googled Reagan opening mental hospitals and letting out now homeless people…

                    • J-FOH says:
                      (link)

                      He hasn’t been governor in 42 years. He might have pulled back but the Big hospital in Camarillo was closed in 97 and turned into cal state Channel Islands

  18. AL KOHOLIC says:
    (link)

    What kind of expectations do u have for Hunter Harvey this year

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      None really, he’s more of a 2019 guy

  19. AL KOHOLIC says:
    (link)

    Thanks as always. Seen he is temporarily healthy and had great numbers at low levels to end last year

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I think he had Tommy John and it is was the very low minors…

  20. JohnnyBeGood says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey! Happy New Year!!

    First question for 2018 – which 2 guys from this list you NOT keeping in a 6×6 roto league?

    – Altuve in 2nd round
    – Rendon in 8th
    – Cespedes in 10th
    – Darvish in 14th
    – Robbie Ray in 17th
    – Moncada in 19th

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Happy New Year! Yoenis, Yu

  21. Nightpandas says:
    (link)

    Grey ,

    I’m pretty prospect/rookie heavy

    Like either of these deals ?

    My Brinson for his Arrieta
    My Hoskins for his Krush and Tanaka

    15 team keep 11 obp and k/9 league

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d take Arrieta, it’s fair… The other deal isn’t good…

  22. Bill Lumbergh says:
    (link)

    Grey: Offseason Trade market in my 27 team 5×5. Trade my JD Martinez, Maeda and 7th round pick for his Ray, Cano and 3rd? Other 3 keepers are Stanton, Tanaka and J. Baez…

    Thx!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Works for me

  23. Let’s get nuts says:
    (link)

    Team needs aside, trade Hoskins for Severino in a points league?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d want Rhys

  24. Milldood says:
    (link)

    Just a really good kid as exemplified by his time to respond positively on twitter. Good spot on him Grey…definitely been eyeing him in my two leagues already for last spot kind of guy.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, seems like a good doode on top of everything else

  25. Lincoln Hawk says:
    (link)

    Currently trying to fill my out my final 4 spots for my 15 keeper 10 team league. I’m pretty much set hitters wise and I was curious which 4 out of these pitchers would you keep heading into next season.

    SP Aaron Sanchez, Jon Gray, Danny Salazar, Felix Hernandez, Danny Duffy, Johnny Cueto

    RP Ken Giles, Edwin Diaz, Brad Brach, Greg Holland

    Also currently have Alex Reyes and Walker Buehler as prospects.

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Giles, Gray, Salazar, Sanchez

  26. Matt says:
    (link)

    Wait, I don’t own Trevor Williams. How can you write a sleeper post about someone not on my team??? I thought we had a deal!!!

    What happened?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m going to go even more obscure with my next one to make sure you don’t own him!

      • Matt says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        I think it’s unequivocally time for you to unveil your Mitch “Sleepy” Haniger essay!!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          It’s never gonna happen! haha

  27. Bbboston says:
    (link)

    Grey;

    I was wondering whether you know of any measures (besides strand rate) that are tracked related to a pitcher’s efficacy when pitching from the stretch. it’s clear to me that some SP have a hard time pitching from stretch, for reasons too numerous to list. So, it would be interesting to find pitchers you know pitch well from the stretch, but their recent year’s stats were weighed down from bad luck when pitching from a full wind up; that would portend a better upcoming year, imo.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Everything is tracked for bases clear vs. men on bases, so unless a pitcher has actively decided to not pitch from stretch, then men on bases data should be stretch data…

  28. Nightpandas says:
    (link)

    Grey ,

    Which side ya got 15 team obp and K/9

    Will Myers vs
    Story and Maenea

    I have a pile of OF and only have LF CF RF and one util so can’t keep them all (Desmond, Dahl, Happ, Margot,Brinson, Calhoun as well), have no real ss and Sale and Bundy for pitching

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Myers, but if you really want a SS, I guess it’s ok

  29. Fogimon says:
    (link)

    Just getting back into the swing of fantasy baseball after winning my ffball league.

    Do you anticipate the HR barrage to continue this season? Are you placing higher priority on SB’s because of it?

    My keepers in a $260 – 10 team Roto;

    C – Ramos $1
    C –
    1B – Rizzo $18
    2B – Altuve $38
    SS –
    MI – Odor $16 =(
    3B – Shaw $4
    CI – Hoskins $5
    OF – Yelich $18
    OF – Domingo $5
    OF – Pollock $5
    OF –
    OF –
    U –
    P – Keuchel $12
    P – Wood $2
    P – Hendricks $2
    P – Berrios $5
    P – LWeaver $5
    P – Giles $2
    P –
    P –
    P –

    Where should I focus my remaining $$ ?
    High end pitching is available (Kershaw, Kluber, Strasburg) but will be very expensive.
    No elite hitters remaining. (Donaldson, Upton, Springer, Encarnacion, Cano, KSeager, Dozier)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You don’t need high end pitching, you should go aggressive for hitters… I like Springer, Upton, Edwin, Dozier… Don’t see why homers would come down this year, unless the balls are sewn differently…

  30. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey – looking to make a risk-free bet on an $18 Hosmer as my last keeper (instead of $11 Devers) in the off-chance that Hosmer lands in a place like COL instead of KC/SD. Specifically, looking to trade my definite non-keepers to snag him from a rebuilding team that is looking for cheap above average guys.

    You think offering my $6 Healy and $3 Sonny Gray is enough to get the job done?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Haha, I just read your comment to Ralph you loved Devers, now you wanna lose him? That trade should get you Hosmer…

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
        (link)

        @Grey: haha I really do love him! Gotta get scrappy with those keepers though. I think I could draft Devers for around his keeper price in this league plus a few bucks – if hosmer lands somewhere sweet, he’ll go for twice that keeper salary.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, I hear ya

  31. Peter Leach says:
    (link)

    Dynasty points league… my Eloy for Robbie Ray… too much to pay?

Comments are closed.