As the season rolls along, my choices for starters to profile should be wearing thin. Luckily for all of you, myself, and my relationship with anyone not in the Crab Army, spot starts and rookie callups give me the perfect intersect of my two worlds. Now as any good Seinfield fan knows, worlds colliding can be catastrophic. Just ask George Costanza. That however is not the case for your loyal and eccentric Prospector/Pitchspector. It’s all good on this end. Why? Because I’m more than happy to dig into the ratio roulette that is rookie starting pitchers. In the grand tradition of my messiah like activity on the prospect side, I’m here to observe these wild cards, provide my take, and lead you on the path to true fantasy salvation. This is a really long winded, and pompous, way to say I’m profiling Reynaldo Lopez’s White Sox debut today. I’ve been lower on Lopez than many other prospectors in the industry. For what feels like two years now, I’ve been constantly banging my shoe on the table of the United Prospect Nations, sternly proclaiming that “Lopez is a pen arm!” I’d make a joke of my followers storming the town square with Pier 1 style tiki torches, but the rest of the Lifshitz clan prolly wouldn’t appreciate that. Anywho, here’s what I saw.
Scouting Report: THE HEAT! Lopez talk must start with the uber-sexy triple digit heater. It’s an elite pitch, consistently garnering 70 grades throughout his time in the minors. The fastball sits 96-98, pops 100 with regularity, and has some decent movement, with slight armside run. High velocity, and movement does not a great fastball make however. It’s the combination of a 50% GB% with a 11.7% SwStr% on the pitch that sets it apart.
Lopez rounds out his arsenal with a a mid-80’s changeup, low-80’s curveball, and a rarely used high-80’s cutter. The change has become a bigger part of Lopez’s repertoire, after leaning on the curveball during his time in the Nationals organization. The change gets more swings and misses than his curveball, and is far more groundball happy than the hook. He’s worked in the obligatory Cooper cutter associated with all Pale Hose starters under long time pitching coach Don Cooper. All in all, the results have been good in AAA Charlotte this year. With Lopez going 6-7 over 22 starts, with a 3.79 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 131 strikeouts to 49 walks over 121 innings.
Reynaldo Lopez vs The Kansas City Royals, Friday August 11th, 2017 at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois
First Inning
Whit Merrifield – 97 MPH pitch high in the zone, ball 1, fastball at 97 to the outer half, strike 1, another 97 MPH fastball middle-in is fouled to left, strike 2, changeup at 86 to the outer-half for strike 3.
Lorenzo Cain – 98 MPH high and inside, ball 1, 97 MPH to the lower outside corner, and it’s fouled to right, strike 1, 98 MPH fastball to the outside, ball 2, 97 on the black outside swinging strike 2, a changeup high in the zone is fouled off, 2-2 count, 98 MPH once again on the black outside swinging strike 3.
Eric Hosmer – 98 MPH fastball high and inside, fouled off, strike 1, 98 MPH to the top of the zone fouled off again, strike 2, 99 MPH heat way high, ball 1, 86 MPH changeup way outside, ball 2, a change at 87 low in the zone, ball 3, full count, a 100 MPH heater low walks Hosmer.
Melky Cabrera – 78 MPH curveball high and inside but in the zone for strike 1, 99 MPH belt high is hit to center for the third out.
Wow Lopez looked strong, really regretting not ranking him in my top 200. That was a nice big league inning. Lots of swinging strikes, and he used the change effectively. The movement didn’t look great, it’s pretty straight, but the velocity variation kept hitters off balance.
Second Inning
Mike Moustakas – fastball at 98 down Main Street, strike 1, curveball at 78 outside, ball 1, another fastball at 97 is fouled off, strike 2, fastball at 97, fouled off again, fastball at 97 in on the hands, is fouled off as he breaks Moustakas’ bat, and Lopez gets a lucky bounce foul, a 98 MPH fastball in the dirt, ball 2, a curveball that bottoms out on Moustakas gets a swinging strike 3.
Cheslor Cuthbert – 76 MPH curveball low and inside, ball 1, 97 MPH fastball on the outer-half strike 1, curveball at the corner of the zone is struck well to left but goes foul, strike 2, fastball at 99 misses badly, ball 2, misses again with a fastball, ball 3, fastball tipped, full count, and he throws a change and misses badly walking Cuthbert.
Alcides Escobar – 78 MPH curveball land s at the bottom of the zone, strike 1, 97 MPH fastball on the outside strike 2, 99 MPH on the black, Escobar reaches out and pokes it foul, 97 MPH bullet up high gets a swinging strike 3.
Alex Gordon – 84 MPH changeup gets a swinging strike 1, 85 MPH change to the same spot, swinging strike 2, 98 MPH fastball to the top of the zone is fouled back into Kevan Smith’s mask, 99 MPH high and outside, ball 1, 85 MPH changeup low and inside, ball 2, 85 MPH changeup belt high on the inside gets a swinging strike 3.
Another solid frame from Lopez, only one of 8 batters has made contact so far. He’s also induced swinging strikes on all three pitches so far.
Third Inning
Drew Butera – 95 MPH linedrive is struck at Tim Anderson, and the short stop hops to make the catch.
Whit Merrifield – Curveball to the outside part of the plate, strike one, 97 MPH low outside the zone, ball 1, 79 MPH curve on the outside, ball 2, 96 MPH in the dirt on the outside, ball 3, 95 MPH on the outside, ball 4.
Lorenzo Cain – Fastball on the outside fouled off, strike 1, 84 MPH change low and inside for a strike, 96 MPH fastball down the heart of the plate is missed for a swinging strike 3.
Eric Hosmer – 82 MPH chaneup over the plate is struck in the air for an easy popup down the third baseline to end the inning.
Another very nice frame for Lopez. Getting Lorenzo Cain to strike out swinging for the second time, and inducing weak contact on the first pitch in bookend at bats.
Fourth Inning
Melky Cabrera – 95 MPH fastball down the middle taken for strike 1, 80 MPH curveball hit to right field for the first out.
Mike Moustakas – 84 MPH changeup on the outside, ball 1, 84 MPH changeup down the bottom of the zone, strike 1, fastball at 97 on the inside, fouled off strike 2, fastball at 97 too high, ball 2, 85 MPH changeup on the outside, fouled off, 97 MPH high and outside hit foul, 2-2 count, curveball hung belt high on the outside is hit for a homer to right. Lopez loses the no-hitter and the shutout.
Cheslor Cuthbert – fastball at 97 is hit back up the middle. Back to back hits.
Alcides Escobar – Another hanging breaking ball is hit over the leaping Tim Anderson for another hit. Three consecutive hits.
Alex Gordon – 94 MPH outside, ball 1, 83 MPH changeup, fouled off, strike 1, 97 MPH way high for ball 2, 82 MPH changeup is hit to center for the second out.
Drew Butera – 77 MPH curveball on the outside for strike 1, 79 MPH breaking ball on the outside black, and just misses for ball 1, fastball fouled off to right field, 81 MPH curveball pops up Butera and Yolmer Sanchez makes the catch along the fencing off the visiting dugout.
Tough inning for Lopez as he yelled three straight hits. Lucky for him the bottom of the Royals order is garbage and couldn’t capitalize with two runners on. Fastball velo dropped a tick, and he hung a few curveballs even outside the Moustakas homer.
Fifth Inning
Whit Merrifield – 94 MPH on the outer-half slapped foul, strike 1, 77 MPH curveball on the upper outside corner, strike 2, a fastball outside ball 1, changeup to the outside fouled off, curveball hung on the inside is pulled foul, 80 MPH curveball drops in on Whitfield and he takes for ball 2, another changeup this time on the bottom of the zone is hit to center, and Adam Engel makes a great diving stab for the first out.
Lorenzo Cain – 94 MPH on the outside, ball 1, 94 MPH in the dirt, ball 2, 84 MPH changeup on the bottom of the zone swinging strike 1, fastball on the outside popped up foul to the first base side, and Abreu makes the catch for the second out.
Eric Hosmer – 96 MPH lower outside part of the plate, strike 1, 81 MPH curveball low and inside, fouled off, strike 2, 86 MPH changeup way outside, ball 1, 98 MPH to the outer-half fouled off, 1-2 count, 96 MPH fastball hit into the shift, Anderson bobbles, but throws to first in enough time for the out.
A nice rebound inning after the 4th as he works 1-2-3 to the middle of the order. Lorenzo Cain looks completely lost vs Lopez.
Sixth Inning
Melky Cabrera – 81 MPH curveball to outside ball 1, fastball low in the zone just misses for ball 2, 92 MPH screamer down the line is snagged by Abreu. He just saved a double.
Mike Moustakas – 81 MPH curve high and outside, ball 1, 83 MPH changeup on the bottom of the zone, ball 2, 94 MPH on the outer-half, strike 1, a changeup is hit a long way foul, strike 2, fastball in on the hands hit foul, and Lopez breaks a third bat today, 83 MPH changeup is left high, and it is hit a long way to left center for another homer. His second of the game vs Lopez.
Cheslor Cuthbert – 78 MPH curve ball way high, ball 1, 93 MPH fastball at the top of the zone fouled off, strike 1, 95 MPH fastball high in the zone, swinging strike 2, 80 MPH changeup hit for a dribbler to second for the second out.
Alcides Escobar – 94 MPH fastball on the outside, ball 1, 95 MPH fastball is hit to right.
That’s it for Lopez. If only he could fool Mike Moustakas!
Pitching Line: 6 IP, 4 Hits, 3 Walks, 2 Runs, 2 Home Runs, 6 K’s, 10 Swinging Strikes
Summary: I have to say, I’ve come away impressed, particularly as someone who’s watched a few of his AAA starts (Being teammates with Yoan Moncada will do that). He looked like he and Kevan Smith really did their homework. They attacked each batter with a unique approach doing a good job of not being reliant on the change or the curve. Had a tendency to hang the breaking pitch here, and there. Both of his secondaries are hittable, the fastball on the other hand is as good as they come. His fastball command and control for a pitch with that sort of velocity was very good. I’d expect Lopez to not be all that dissimilar from 2017 Charlie Morton in 2018. Down the stretch here, we’ll have to see, but a strong run of starts to end the season is possible.
Updated Top 100 SP
(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto)
Disabled List (Ranking When Active): Clayton Kershaw, LAD (3), James Paxton, SEA (5), Noah Syndergaard, NYM (8), Stephen Strasburg, WAS (9), Robbie Ray, ARI (12), Lance McCullers, HOU (16), David Price, BOS (24), Johnny Cueto, SF (28), Chase Anderson, MIL (29), Michael Fulmer, DET (34), Masahiro Tanaka, NYY (35), Brandon McCarthy, LAD (42), Felix Hernandez, SEA (54), Aaron Sanchez, TOR (66) Matt Andriese, TB (68), Jake Odorizzi, TB (69), Kyle Freeland, COL (76), Scott Feldman, CIN (84), Matt Harvey, NYM (99) Brandon Finnegan, CIN (100)
Dropped off: Vincent Velasquez, PHI Trevor Cahill, KC Brent Suter, MIL, Jeff Hoffman, COL, John Lackey, CHC
Follow me on Twitter @Ralphlifshitzbb, and check out my weekly Live Baseball Show on Fantrax YouTube channel Tuesday’s at 9 PM EST
Thoughts on cashner ROS? Been doing well against better offenses
@Alex: The results have been good ratio wise, but he’s a little scary. He’s getting by on lots of luck, but he’s aguy who the numbers say he should be higher. I don’t trust him. That said he could easily be anywhere from 70-100.
Thanks for all the work you do. I watched this game cheering for my Royals but having just started Reynaldo on almost all my teams. My only concern with his start is KC is swinging and missing at a lot of stuff right now. But like you said, props to Chicago for knowing how to attack each batter.
I’m trying to assess my SP for next year in my 10 team dynasty.
10-Archer, 12-McCullers, 24-Cueto, 29-Fulmer, 42-Faria, 43-Rodon, 53-T.Walker. Also have Honeywell and McKenzie.
I don’t feel great about it, mainly because of health concerns. Do I need to do a major overhaul or just drop Walker for best available? I’m not in contention this year so I don’t mind being patient waiting on someone but I do want the best staff possible for 2018.
Any of these guys a must get in a dynasty format, but competitive for 2018?
Clevinger, Luis Castillo, Reynaldo Lopez, Luke Weaver, Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty.
@Sport: Yeah and it waned as the start went on. He was electric the first three innings. I wouldn’t mess with him against a really patient team. The Red Sox would give him a trashing for example. Good point though.
I’d add Buehler first. Ace upside there and should have a role next year. Next would be Flaherty, then Weaver, then Clevinger.
@Ralph Lifshitz: T.Walker droppable then? I also have Votto, Miggy, Rhys, and Don Smith so does that make Chris Davis droppable?
@Sport: I’d drop Davis first
@Sport: Taijuan is a bit over rated I think, his numbers/metrics are as we say… ‘meh’
I think he just came up at a time when there weren’t a ton of other decent SP prospects,
so maybe he got some hype for what was really just a slightly above average performance in the minors (perhaps?)
I just recently dropped him in a 12-team ‘keep 14 forever’ league after I compared his stats to several other SP in his tier
8.7% SwStr 8.18 k/9 21 k% … all very average
all the fip’s, bb’s, and contact seem below average
maybe the humidor will help next year??
@Slappy Jack: I’d say he’s slightly above average. There’s a lot of 4.50-5.00 ERA guys. You just have to be smart with where you start him
Hey Ralph! Love your opinions!
As a Rangers fan for over 40 years, I’ve been wishing for them to finally hit the jackpot on some of the many pitchers they seem to draft highly every year. I’m still waiting…
What is your opinion of Cole Ragans? And, do you see any future above average SPs in their farm system?
@John Hagar: I think Ragans has an outside shot to develop into Cole Hamels, but it’s more likely he’s a mid-rotation arm. He misses bats, so he’s got a starting point.
I like Speas, he’s got some upside. Matuella and the recently acquired Alexey have upside too. If Matuella can stay healthy there’s something there.
Mendez and Jurado are back end rotations guys IMO. Sadzeck seems like a nice pen arm, Martin & Palumbo are borderline major leaguers.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Thanks for the insight!
Ragans turning into Cole Hamels, whose had a nice career, would be great. And, if Speas and Matuella turn out to be as good or better, we’ve got some hope.
It has just been amazingly disappointing to watch them draft pitcher after pitcher in the early rounds year after year only to never see them develop into good major league starters….
ROS: Bauer or Straily?
@Robert: Bauer and ranked as such, they’re headed in opposite directions.
What a joke list. You look me in the eyes and tell me you think Jimmy Nelson isn’t ahead of Arrieta and Cole. lol get a life nerd who is bad at being a nerd. lol @christowers
@PM_me_alexwood_woodies:
what’s your problem?
seriously hope this is a joke, otherwise, please, come join my league so i cant bitch slap you with Ralph’s advice.
stupid internet trolls.
@apox: Nah hahaha he’s joking, I’m friendly with the guy who wrote this. It’s a running joke.
@Ralph Lifshitz: We have achieved full-meta, now. I can’t believe it took this long.
@Jaaaaaake.crab: FULL META!!!
10 team h2h redraft with playoffs running from September 11th through the 23rd. Based on the slightly early playoff dates, which 2 SPs would you most want to own for the playoffs, Mcculers, Pax, Wacha, and Happ?
I own mcculers and pax but already have 4 other DL players. I could probably hold them all on my bench and still make the playoffs if you think they are better than the best available fa (Wacha and Happ). What would you recommend? Thanks!
@Wacha Wacha: Happ and Pax if healthy. I’d stay away from McCullers, he’s worrisome and doesn’t look like he has a time table yet. You may end up with Happ and Wacha by default.
Why the drop on Straily? He dropped nearly 30 spots after a pretty good game against the Nats
@JP: Every few weeks I look at the last 6 starts to try and eliminate and bias toward the last start. Over his last 6 5.17 ERA, .311 BAA, and 1.60 WHIP, without much high K upside. That said 40-60 isn’t far. Lots of moves and shakes this week.
I have Dom Smith at $5 but am trying for the win. Trade deadline decision….do I trade him or keep him? Will he help me ROS?
@dfrench23: Meh, maybe not, if you can get a piece that helps you and it doesn’t hurt you long term do it.
Great write up Ralph!
Question for you:
Currently in first in a dynasty head to head league, but it is very close.
May need to shore up my pitching, but definitely need some saves. 3b has been atrocious before Devers.
Received this offer today:
GET: R. Hill, Britton, Desmond, Swanson
Give: Devers, Berrios, and Reyes.
It makes my team old, but could help me win this year at the expense of next year.
I think Devers may be my best 3b next year, and I am unsure on Berrios.
Should I take the offer?
Team:
Batters:
Jonathan Lucroy Col – C,1B
Paul Goldschmidt Ari – 1B
Jonathan Schoop Bal – 2B
Eugenio Suárez Cin – 3B
Xander Bogaerts Bos – SS
Andrew Benintendi Bos – LF,CF
George Springer Hou – CF,RF
Giancarlo Stanton Mia – RF
Mookie Betts Bos – RF
Brian Dozier Min -UTIL
Bench
Maikel Franco Phi – 3B
Todd Frazier NYY – 1B,3B
Gregory Polanco Pit – LF,RF
José Reyes NYM – 2B,3B,SS
Rafael Devers Bos – 3B
MiLB – David Dahl Col – LF,CF
MiLB – Víctor Robles Was – CF
Pitchers:
Corey Kluber Cle – SP
Zack Greinke Ari – SP
Yu Darvish LAD – SP
Madison Bumgarner SF – SP
Craig Kimbrel Bos – RP
Alex Colomé TB – RP
David Robertson NYY – RP
Seung Hwan Oh StL – RP
Bench
Danny Duffy KC – SP
José Berríos Min – SP
Kevin Gausman Bal – SP
DL – Jeurys Familia NYM – RP
Thanks
@Chrisjen17: Hold off, you’re in first with this team and admittedly have shored up 3rd with Devers. Don’t cash in, hold tight, maybe you win this year, and dominate for the next 3.
Great stuff Ralph!
Roughly, where do you see Severino and Darvish being ranked next season? Thanks!
@GregJeffries: Severino is a tough call, he’s been so good, but a little bad luck from the AL East parks hurts him. Still a top 10-15 arm for me.
Darvish it depends where he signs. If he stays in LA he’s a top 3-5 guy.
I had Berrios and Manaea for most of the season and have recently dropped both of them…. Anyone willing to start either of those guys, especially Manaea has quite a set of plums on ’em.
I’ll be high on Berrios next season, for sure. I’m just afraid that he’s fading too fast to hold for the ROS.
@Ryan Wheeler: Yeah both of those guys are fading, wish they were on better teams.
Whaddays mean, the lede’s clever! Took me a moment anyway…
Thoughts on Jose Adolis Garcia (STL) and Jose Miguel Fernandez (the new Jo-Fer?). Do you like them and could they make an impact any time soon?
Oh and Hoskins!! Thats more like it lad.
Oh oh and Devers!!! First lefty to homer off Chapman in 6 years I heard. Just insane, love his all fields power. Your love looks justified, thank you my man.
@Swfcdan: Hahaha I get them right every so often.
I like Garcia better, he’s got the age advantage, and has looked solid at AAA. The other one who knows, it reminds me of Alex Guerrero and Olivera. Old Cuban.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Garcia is he a top 100/200 prospect if eligible? Yup I recently drafted him.
@Ralph Lifshitz: New Jo-Fer is mashing in the minors too, looks way too good for that level now.
I know you don’t rank them due to age but wonder where you’d rank them as prospects in dynasties if age doesn’t matter. Sometimes I’d rather take a chance on an older dude who could be up soon, vs a 17/18yr old kid we won’t see for years (I took them over L Almanzar FWIWerth).
Yo Ralph! Keep up the amazing work…. Another awesome write up as always… Big move possibly on the table … 12 Team forever keep 10 … + 10 Farm….
I’m in a serious battle for top 2-3…. Last place team is offering :
His Abreu or Healy, Taijuan Walker, and Faria or Jordan Montgomery (for my farm)
FOR My Maitan
Not to Be long winded, but my potential keepers going forward are Salvador Perez, Bruce, Nunez, Shaw, Cutch, Cain, Longo, Adam Jones, Souza, Lemahieu, Salazar, Maeda, Andrew Miller .. and lots of guys you’ve recommended on my farm
Thank you as always !
@Landisimo3: Id do Jose Abreu, Walker, and Faria for Maitan if it helps you this year and next.
Ralph,
I’ve been getting some interest in Verdugo recently, what do you think his upside is, realistically? I know he’s young, but he doesn’t seem to have much power or speed. A year from now do you think he’s a keeper in a 12 team keep 10 league? Would you view Inciarte and Ken Giles as a fair deal for him? Puig and Giles? Thanks!
@Matt: looks like adam eaton with even less steals.
Trying this again because my comment doesn’t seem to have come up when I posted earlier…what do you think Verdugo’s upside is, realistically? He’s young, but he doesn’t seem to have much speed or power. I see a lot of hype, but not clear on his ceiling. Related question, if I can get Inciarte and Giles or Puig and Giles, or Cain, for him, should I jump? Thanks!
@Ben: Ha, and clearly was using a different computer/forgot to change the name the first time around…