Happy Monday, Razzball faithful!

It’s an updated version of the Top 100 Starting Pitchers for 2026 Fantasy Baseball this week, with fresh ADP adjustments since last week’s grouping of names and numbers.

And, because it can’t all be sunshine and rainbows, there is a bit of Goldilocks at play here.

It’s nearly impossible to find a comfortable middle ground when we’re researching Starting Pitchers ahead of draft season. Last week, we checked in on the Player Rater’s projected SP1-100. Next week, we’ll look at names from the post-apocalyptic SP200+ dead zone.

This week, we’re Goldilocks. And the bears are out to lunch.

Welcome to the “just right” player profiles for draft day bargains, also known as the Preseason Player Rater’s SP101-200 rankings.

The good news for this week’s list? I’ve updated ADPs to show all of the movement in NFBC and Fantrax draft rankings for our sphere-slinging superarms. 

The bad news? We already have to move a few names around because of early injury issues and creaky arm syndrome.

Before we get to the goods, I wanted to draw some attention to a great piece that Keelin wrote in her regular Ambulance Chaser’s article about what we think we know about pitcher health. It is a great resource for those of us targeting some arms with health questions, or, really, for when we’re trying to figure out ANY starting pitchers’ reliability in our draft season preparations.

I’m sure there’s a way to modify an old saying to something like this: There are two types of starting pitchers…those who are injured, and those who aren’t injured yet.

Unfortunately, when it comes to guys like Pablo Lopez, deciphering any health-related details isn’t going to take much sleuthing; his season-ending Tommy John surgery is scheduled this Wednesday.

As I said above, there isn’t much to change today as far as rankings are concerned, and it’ll be much of the same until we get into games for realzies. But the Spring games give us some time to shine some light on each section of the Preseason Player Rater as it applies to our Top 100 Starting Pitchers list here.

Last week, the Top 100 Starting Pitchers piece gave you some mini-profiles on pitchers from our list that showed up in the Preseason Player Rater Rankings from SP1-100. That’s where you’ll find notes on Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Wheeler.

Before we get to the goods, though, a bit of business first. The Razzball subscriptions are well worth the price of admission. This should be your go-to reference for the entire season. That resource that the other “experts” from other sites use as often as they look at Statcast or Fangraphs data? This is it.

AND, don’t forget that we launched the RCL leagues last week. Click on the link to the RCL article from Grey to sign up for one of our 2026 Razzball Commenter Leagues!

I’ll put a few quick hit notes if there are any BIG jumps or dumps in our ADP after the list here today, too. As an additional point, I changed the NFBC search to reflect the most recent drafts instead of whatever it usually defaults to, so the NFBC numbers are from January 21st to February 21st.

The Top 100 Starting Pitchers for 2026

Sorted by 15-team default for NFBC & 12-team (RCL) rankings for Fantrax.

MARMO RANK	Name	Team	R$	GREY’S RANKING	NFBC RANKING	FANTRAX RANKING
1	Tarik Skubal	DET	40.8	1	1	1
2	Paul Skenes	PIT	35.8	2	2	2
3	Garrett Crochet	BOS	29.3	3	3	3
4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	LAD	19.7	4	4	4
5	Cristopher Sanchez	PHI	23.2	7	5	5
6	Bryan Woo	SEA	19.3	6	7	9
7	Logan Webb	SF	19.4	10	14	10
8	Logan Gilbert	SEA	23.8	9	6	8
9	Hunter Greene	CIN	18.3	8	10	12
10	Hunter Brown	HOU	18.9	5	8	6
11	Cole Ragans	KC	21.2	22	12	14
12	Jacob deGrom	TEX	20.3	15	11	13
13	Max Fried	NYY	19.5	17	13	11
14	George Kirby	SEA	21.0	13	16	19
15	Kyle Bradish	BAL	10.8	11	18	23
16	Chris Sale	ATL	23.6	16	9	7
17	Dylan Cease	TOR	16.9	21	20	18
18	Joe Ryan	MIN	24.1	14	17	17
19	Framber Valdez	DET	17.9	24	21	20
20	Freddy Peralta	NYM	16.7	18	15	15
21	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	3.3	12	1 (UT)	1 (UT)
22	Jesus Luzardo	PHI	19.8	23	19	16
23	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	13.6	37	30	29
24	Kevin Gausman	TOR	14.1	25	28	24
25	Eury Perez	MIA	10.2	32	22	25
26	Sonny Gray	BOS	10.9	39	31	27
27	Nolan McLean	NYM	5.5	33	24	30
28	Chase Burns	CIN	7.6	29	27	28
29	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	12.6	27	40	44
30	Emmett Sheehan	LAD	7.2	30	38	40
31	Trey Yesavage	TOR	5.2	35	42	36
32	Nick Lodolo	CIN	8.8	28	33	39
33	Brandon Woodruff	MLW	12.4	26	29	33
34	Zack Wheeler	PHI	15.6	60	36	51
35	Blake Snell	LAD	15.6	19	25	38
36	Jacob Misiorowski	MLW	-2.3	34	32	26
37	Nick Pivetta	SD	15.4	38	23	22
38	Spencer Strider	ATL	16.5	36	26	21
39	Robbie Ray	SF	5.8	42	45	43
40	Michael King	SD	13.5	40	34	42
41	Cam Schlittler	NYY	-1.6	31	35	37
42	Trevor Rogers	BAL	-3.6	46	47	41
43	Ryan Pepiot	TB	6.4	43	37	34
44	Shota Imanaga	CHC	12.3	59	50	52
45	Bubba Chandler	PIT	-8.0	77	44	48
46	Gavin Williams	CLE	1.8	61	39	32
47	Ranger Suarez	BOS	8.9	45	51	47
48	Tatsyui Imai	HOU	-2.7	52	49	50
49	Drew Rasmussen	TB	6.3	44	43	46
50	Matthew Boyd	CHC	2.8	49	64	61
51	Edward Cabrera	CHC	2.1	47	55	58
52	Shane Bieber	TOR	-4.0	53	59	66
53	Luis Castillo	SEA	12.4	48	46	31
54	Jack Flaherty	DET	8.7	55	63	56
55	Tanner Bibee	CLE	6.7	62	54	49
56	Andrew Abbott	CIN	1.9	51	61	60
57	Merrill Kelly	ARI	8.4	56	65	63
58	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	1.1	57	41	35
59	Mackenzie Gore	TEX	9.9	63	52	45
60	Carlos Rodon	NYY	3.9	58	56	71
61	Shane Baz	BAL	3.9	50	57	59
62	Logan Henderson	MLW	-6.8	72	77	90
63	Joe Musgrove	SD	5.3	69	67	69
64	Kris Bubic	KC	-2.8	75	60	62
65	Quinn Priester	MLW	-6.2	70	75	72
66	Zac Gallen	ARI	3.1	54	62	54
67	Joey Cantillo	CLE	-8.8	66	80	102
68	Shane Smith	CWS	-3.1	64	71	80
69	Noah Cameron	KC	-2.8	74	74	65
70	Roki Sasaki	LAD	-6.7	78	69	57
71	Jack Leiter	TEX	-4.5	71	70	68
72	Grayson Rodriguez	LAA	0.8	76	82	95
73	Ryan Weathers	NYY	0.4	87	78	104
74	David Peterson	NYM	7.6	65	110	96
75	Cody Ponce	TOR	-4.1	73	84	98
76	Ryne Nelson	ARI	-2.3	68	73	77
77	Cade Horton	CHC	-7.3	80	56	53
78	Clay Holmes	NYM	-2.4	67	100	89
79	Shane McClanahan	TB	6.8	82	66	79
80	Will Warren	NYY	-7.3	83	99	106
81	Seth Lugo	KC	2.9	89	104	99
82	Gerrit Cole	NYY	-0.5	86	73	74
83	Casey Mize	DET	1.3	84	75	76
84	Brayan Bello	BOS	-3.0	88	97	81
85	Kodai Senga	NYM	-7.4	99	83	94
86	Mike Burrows	HOU	-6.1	85	86	112
87	Mitch Keller	PIT	2.1	101	111	75
88	Sean Manaea	NYM	7.3	91	85	101
89	Aaron Nola	PHI	7.2	98	58	55
90	Connelly Early	BOS	-16.8	109	72	73
91	Zebby Matthews	MIN	-7.0	100	90	102
92	Jonah Tong	NYM	-22.0	107	115	110
93	Andrew Painter	PHI	-19.7	116	94	123
94	Payton Tolle	BOS	-13.3	119	129	135
95	Bryce Miller	SEA	2.2	105	68	67
96	Braxton Ashcraft	PIT	-12.2	113	81	107
97	Michael Wacha	KC	0.6	94	113	97
98	Parker Messick	CLE	-9.6	79	89	109
99	Bailey Ober	MIN	4.2	97	87	82
100	Robby Snelling	MIA	-19.8	N/R	92	121

Regular readers know that I usually break the Top 100 SP write-ups into smaller sections with “Jumpers”, “Dumpers”, and “Bumpers”, but today I’m going to focus on some of the names that need a bit of spotlight that also fall into that SP101-200 pocket of the Preseason Player Rater. (I’ll do the chaos that is SP200+ next week).

Quick Hits from the Top 100

• Most of the top guys shuffled around a few spots (up or down) in NFBC drafts after I made the change with the time frame.
• NFBC movement: Shane Bieber dropped down 10 spots this week, Ryan Weathers jumped up 22 spots, Logan Henderson jumped 6, Braxton Ashcraft jumped 17, Cody Ponce and Mike Burrows both jumped 20.
• Fantrax movement: Blake Snell dropped from 17 to 38, Shane Bieber dropped from 46 to 66, and Carlos Rodon dropped from 57 to 71.
• I missed the Hurston Waldrep news by literal minutes last week. I had a feeling we’d get news about an injury, but I wasn’t expecting it to be almost literally while I was writing “I’ll keep him in the list until we hear more news that changes things”. He’s gone now because of the news that he’ll miss at least three months after the removal of “loose bodies” from his elbow.
• Pablo Lopez is another victim of the dreaded “injured before we even got started” curse. The ROS injury news means he’s been removed entirely from the list. He dropped in NFBC ADP from SP36 all the way down to SP53 since news broke about the injury.
• When I sat down to get a head start on the list on Saturday, I opened social media and saw that Joe Ryan would miss his start that afternoon. The official word was “back tightness” with an MRI scheduled for yesterday. Ryan stays where he is for now, but any further troubling news will mean he drops down the list (or gets removed completely).
• Spencer Schwellenbach didn’t get a spot last week because of the bone spur surgery and the quote that he “hopes” to pitch at some point this year. Uh…no. 
• Losing two guys means adding two newbies. That’s Bailey Ober and Robby Snelling. For what it’s worth, I almost removed Tolle and added Chad Patrick, Jose Soriano, or Brady Singer, but I didn’t.
• Speaking of Tolle, his spot is tenuous at best, as is the spot of a few other rookies. Watch the kids during Spring, and if the news is that any of them will likely be sent down to “work on things”, it’ll make room for the less exciting veterans. Think of the Jameson Taillon, Reid Detmers, Yusei Kikuchi, Jose Soriano-type guys. 
• The Top 100 isn’t easy to put together because it means we lose out on quite a few of those deeper league names to watch. Some of the guys I had a tough time bumping out for other names include: Dean Kremer, Lucas Giolito, Brady Singer, Jared Jones, Cade Cavalli, Chad Patrick, Ian Seymour, Corbin Burnes (IL), Cristian Javier, Taj Bradley, Landen Roupp, Ryan Bergert, Tyler Mahle, Max Scherzer, Jose Berrios, Kutter Crawford, Johan Oviedo, Kumar Rocker, Spencer Arrighetti, Jacob Lopez, Joe Boyle, Brandon Sproat…really the list feels endless. I’ll highlight some of these (and other) names in the next couple of weeks.

PLAYER PROFILES from the TOP 100

I’ll feature some of the players from the 101-200 range from our Preseason Player Rater projections here. Others won’t be featured until next week’s SP201+  Player Rater piece.

**Parentheses indicate Preseason Player Rater Ranking or PPRR, not the player’s spot in my Top 100**

Cody Ponce (PPRR: 98) – Oh great. We’re starting with a cheat! Ok, so for what it’s worth, I had Ponce down as a write-up for this week, then his preseason player rater ranking pushed him up into the Top 100. Well, dang it if I wasn’t going to miss out on one of the Blue Jays’ newest free agent pickups.

I don’t even know where to start with Ponce. The numbers from last season’s KBO run were straight out of an MLB The Show season on rookie difficulty. 

29 GS, 17-1 record, 180.2 IP, 128 H, 38 ER, 41 BB, 252 Ks, 1.89 ERA.

Um…what?

It’s highly unlikely that Ponce repeats the 12.55 K/9 or 2.04 BB/9; that’s a certainty. But if he can even mirror a fraction of the kind of magic he found in Korea last season, you’re going to get an effective arm that is throwing for a potent offense, at a bargain price. 

The perceived threat that Ponce won’t have a starting rotation spot out of Spring training is what likely keeps his price suppressed. But when he signed in Toronto, it was with the agreement that he would get the ball every 5 days. 

Plus, I have to include one final gem from this week that added more fuel to the man-crush fire in Marmoville.

I don’t know what’s better, that clip or the report that he wore #30 in Korea last year as a nod to a certain golden protocol droid, then changed to #66 this season as both a reference to “Order #66” and a nod to former Blue Jays starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, who wore #99.

Let other managers jump on Jose Berrios two rounds earlier. I’m fine with waiting to pounce on Ponce if he slides too far into those late rounds of the draft.

Mike Burrows (PPRR:102)  – When I saw the three-team deal involving the Astros, Rays, and Pirates, I was pretty excited. Brandon Lowe in Pittsburgh? That’s a solid power bat. Jake Mangum? Hey, the Pirates get some speed, too. Mason Montgomery? A serviceable arm! And the Rays got two top 10 prospects back in the deal? Man, Houston must have gotten a pretty sweet return, too!

Then I saw Mike Burrows. That was it. Hmph. 

MLB dot com’s article didn’t even have Mike Burrows hyperlinked to a player page!

Well, according to Roster Resource, the 26-year-old Burrows is pencilled into the back end of the rotation. That’s a good start. 

The minor league numbers? They weren’t exactly eye-popping, but it looks like the kid can throw. He has a 5-pitch mix headlined by a fastball and sinker that can touch 96 MPH. The offspeed offerings are enough to throw hitters off balance, too: 87 MPH CB, 87 MPH SL, 78 MPH CH.

He’s on my short list of less shiny names to watch during Spring games. Getting back to what Keelin mentioned on Saturday, I’ll be paying attention to velocity, stamina, and rhythm. Is he using all of his pitches to try to keep hitters off balance? Are they ramping him up and giving him multiple innings near the end of the exhibition schedule? This is something I try to do with any pitchers I’m targeting, but especially the younger ones or the guys who aren’t guaranteed a roster spot.

Logan Henderson (PPRR: 106) – Yes, I’m cherry picking from the 101-110 section. Of course I am. But you can’t argue that these names have upside and are worth gambling on over some of the other names that are ranked much higher in the Player Rater (yes, I’m looking at you at SP72, Taj Bradley, SP60, Jose Soriano, and you, Mister 54, Yusei Kikuchi).

I outlined Logan Henderson as one of my favorites last year, before he ended up with an elbow injury that cost him all but five starts in the 2025 season. My only hesitation with Henderson this year is the competition he has for a rotation spot. Robert Gasser, Brandon Sproat, Chad Patrick, and now Kyle Harrison will be fighting for 2 spots. Whoever loses out on a starting gig is going to be an easy add on a reserve roster, if you have room to stash arms. 

None of those guys is out of options, either, so there isn’t even that kind of hint to how this will play out.

Monitor and be ready to lock these guys in. FWIW, I like Henderson, Gasser, and Patrick the best out of that group, as far as “chance to seize a job on Day 1” is concerned.

Bubba Chandler (PPRR:114) – First off, our guy Bubba only worked 31.1 innings in the big leagues last year. Small sample size? Most definitely. But when we add in his 100 innings in the minors, he had a respectable enough total to expect something similar in Pittsburgh, if not an increase in innings this year. 

The strikeout rates were as advertised. A 10.89 K/9 in the minors is as good as we can expect from almost anyone. The walk rate? Uh…it was ugly. The 4.77 BB/9 was the number that fuelled most of the doubt surrounding Chandler and the likelihood of a mid-season call-up to PNC Park. 

BUT, the small sample of MLB work was enough for me to see that the walk issue last summer was more of a “blip on the radar” than anything else. 

In the big leagues, Chandler posted an 8.90 K/9 along with a very respectable 1.51 BB/9. 

For comparison’s sake, and because I know some of us like the K-BB% stat, let’s have a look at some of the top starters in the league from last year and some of Bubba’s teammates…

PLAYER	TEAM	K-BB%	OVERALL RANK
Tarik Skubal	DET	27.8	1
Garrett Crochet	BOS	25.7	2
Paul Skenes	PIT	23.7	3
Joe Ryan	MIN	22.5	4
Bryan Woo	SEA	22.2	5
Braxton Ashcraft	PIT	16.1	*19*
Mitch Keller	PIT	13.2	34

*not enough innings to qualify for league leaders*

Bubba Chandler’s number? A 25.0 K% minus a 3.2 BB% nets out to a cool 21.8 K-BB%. If you’re wondering where that slots in, it would put Bubba in 7th place among ALL MLB pitchers. He’s nestled in between Jacob deGrom and Sonny Gray, which is never a bad place to be if you’re looking for him on any leaderboard.

Small sample size? Sure. But I’m gambling on this kid taking a big step forward, and I’ll be pretty happy if he’s staring at me in my draft room after the first 40 starters are off the board.

Parker Messick (PPRR: 122) and Ian Seymour (PPRR: 124) – I copped out and listed these two together for one reason. Capable competition for a job, and options available.

Messick is a solid pitcher. So is Ian Seymour. The problem is that both pitchers have minor league options remaining, and some of their competitors for a rotation spot do not. Sometimes teams make the easy call and send a more talented pitcher back down to the minors. 

Are Joey Cantillo, Steven Matz, and Nick Martinez more talented than our two highlighted arms from the list? Not necessarily. But if teams can send down both of the kids to make sure they don’t lose one of their other arms without options? It wouldn’t be the first time we were frustrated as fantasy managers.

It’s just something to keep in mind if your rookie or young pitcher is locked into a battle for a rotation spot. 

Braxton Ashcraft (PPRR: 136) – I’ll get out ahead of this one and say that I have an unhealthy appreciation for Braxton Ashcraft this year.

Is it his 97 MPH fastball? The penchant for inducing ground balls (85th percentile)? The 96th percentile barrel rate? That’s a trio of “YES” right there. 

Ashcraft’s line in the majors last year was enough for me to build excitement ahead of this draft season: 69.2 IP, 63 H, 21 ER, 24 BB, 71 Ks, 2.71 ERA. If we add in his ranking on that K-BB% chart from above? Ya, I’ll be snagging this guy earlier than a lot of others have him ranked, that’s for sure.

Jared Jones (PPRR: 147) – Ah. From one Pirates 2026 mancrush right back to the 2025 version. This one is easy. Do I love Jared Jones? Yes. Platonically, of course. Do I want to spend a mid-round draft pick to secure him on my squads this year? No. Or at least not until he shows us he’s healthy and ready to rock. This is the name that I was thinking of when I read through Keelin’s post on Saturday. He’ll be the guy I’m watching all Spring training. And, yes, I mean, every pitch. If he so much as winces on a release, I’m going to shed a tear and move him off my redraft lists.

Payton Tolle (PPRR: 139) – I originally felt like I said this more than once, then I realized I did. If you want to hear it on the  AL EAST podcast with Mike and Jeremy, click the link. I’ll paste what I said in my Groundhog Day post…

“I had Aroldis Chapman down as my Sell for the Sox, but also mentioned that I wouldn’t be surprised if Boston moved one or two of these kids to the bullpen if Chapman fell flat in Spring, or if they moved him before Opening Day. Tolle has the makeup of a closer (97 MPH FB), and would be as good a choice as any to throw at the back of that bullpen to shut things down in the 9th inning.

Is he a great choice in your draft at this price? Maybe. But I’m just saying I wouldn’t be surprised to see him head to the bullpen a la Garrett Whitlock in an attempt to get him some MLB innings without pushing his limits in a sophomore season.”

And that’s me quoting me!

Troy Melton (PPRR: 156 ) – I was much higher on Melton when it looked like his pathway to a starting rotation spot was clear. Reese Olson going down was good news for him. The Tigers’ signing of Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander was the opposite of good (at least as far as Melton’s chances to crack the rotation are concerned). He’ll be an AL-only stash for me if I can get him for $1.

Connelly Early (PPRR: 167) – We can likely rinse and repeat what I said about Payton Tolle here and apply it to Connelly Early. I’ll admit that would be lazy, but I will also admit that I don’t think Early would be as effective as a…uh… late-inning weapon like Tolle would. Teams hate to transition young SPs to the bullpen, but if one of the two would warrant a move to get them big league innings, it won’t be Early.

If we consider Early’s insane 19-inning cup of coffee in Boston last year (13.50 K/9; 1.86 BB/9), and the command that he has as a starter, that, at the very least, should have him ahead of a lot of the other SP5 contenders behind Crochet, Gray, Suarez, and Bello in Boston this year.

Andrew Painter (PPRR: 187) – Remember when this dude was the talk of the fantasy baseball town? Throwing 100 MPH fastballs will do that for a kid. Tommy John surgery? That will quiet a lot of the positive talk.

Painter’s TJS was performed way back in June of 2023, and his return to the mound last year wasn’t terrible: 118 MiLB IP, 9.38 K/9, 3.58 BB/9.

The command is always the last thing to return after Tommy John surgery, and the general expectation is to give the player two full years before expecting his control to get back to where it was before the injury.

I’ll say two things here. One, the Phillies want Andrew Painter to seize a job in Spring Training. Two, his manager is sounding ‘cautiously optimistic’ about his chances.

Jose Urquidy (PPRR: 198) – I had to get one in before the 200 mark, so I scrolled all the way down and found a potential bargain in the rough. It’s weird to think that Pittsburgh has a ton of pitchers who are ready to assume a starting rotation spot, but it’s true. Outside of the first two starters, things are looking like a wide-open battle. Which 5 are you taking from this group?

Paul Skenes

Bubba Chandler

Mitch Keller

Braxton Ashcraft

Carmen Mlodzinski

Jared Jones

Jose Urquidy

Hunter Barco

Thomas Harrington

Mike Clevinger

Ok, so even if we assume that last name is a Marmos-troll job (hee hee), it’s safe to say that whoever wants the ball every five days in Pittsburgh is going to have his work cut out for him over the next few weeks!

That’s all, folks! Regular readers know the drill here. If you have anything to share or comment on, feel free to drop it in the comments here, and I’ll get back to you as soon as I can!

As I said above, this week was the Top 100 with some write-ups from the SP101-200 of our Preseason Player Rater Rankings. Next week, I’ll do the deepest dive through the muck that is SP200+. Most of those guys won’t show up on this list, but they’re the ones I’d have at the bottom with a few asterisks shaded in beside them for the $1 menu in auction drafts!

See you next Monday!

Follow me @marmosdad on Twitter/X and Bluesky @marmosdad.bsky.social