Welcome to my new column in Razzball: The Magazine! Every week I’ll be responding to letters from fans who are in a fantasy crisis. Let’s jump right in and see our first question:

Dear EverywhereBlair, 

I drafted Sixto Sanchez in the first round. I know! I’m a sucker for alliteration. I even named my team, “Sexy Sixto Stacks Stampede.” You told me ADP was a trap and I could draft whomever I want whenever I want! 

Signed, 

Suxto See Sixto Sick

Well, we’ve got ourselves a humdinger for the first mailbag question! Did you hear that Sixto has a sore arm? You really don’t need to be taking pitchers in the first round. But it’s your team, you do you. You can fix your team by drafting Jacob Stallings, and renaming it the Sticky Stallings Smashers. Onwards, to the main event!

Small Sample Size

After watching all the elite starters get smashed on Opening Day and Matt Boyd look like a comparable ace, I could just put in my “Don’t draft pitchers early” mantra and be done with it. Nay, I wouldn’t do that to you. Instead I’m gonna walk you off the proverbial ledge: Now is not the time to over react and get rid of your pitchers. In fact, you’ll need to be a bit patient and probably wait three-ish weeks before making drastic moves. But wait, you say — that’s nearly 10% of the season! Well, we need more than just 1-2 pieces of data to see a trend. If you were reactionary to just a few outings at the beginning of the season in 2020, here’s the staff you would have ended up with last year:

Antonio Senzatela: 3 GS, 17 IP, 14K/5BB, 2.65 ERA (finished SP57)

Randy Dobnak: 3 GS, 15 IP, 8K/4BB, 0.60 ERA (finished SP75)

Alec Mills3 GS, 19 IP, 14K/6BB, 2.84 ERA (finished SP61)

Jon Gray3 GS, 16 IP, 7K/4BB, 3.31 ERA (finished SP213)

Rich Hill3 GS, 13 IP, 8K/6BB, 3.55 ERA (finished SP87)

And meanwhile, Yu Darvish and Aaron Nola started 2020 each with a 6.75 ERA in their first 2020 outing. So, just chill. Don’t make any big changes  (unless you’re trying to trade for an ace that had a rough start, then try to grab them of course).

In fact, I wanna make a new name for these pitchers who are only useful in best ball / DFS settings: STaRs. Or, Starters as Relievers. These starters look great in small spurts but also have longer periods of sheer blahdom. You’ll talk about them as the next big thing and ogle their Pitching Ninja highlights. But when push comes to glove, they have a couple nice starts and then settle into their happy lives of MLB mediocrity.

All of this is to say: I’m giving you news and updates this week. The rankings aren’t really changing until we get a bit more data, because otherwise I’m just as likely to tell you to grab Randy Dobnak and ruin your team. If you feel like there’s a pitcher you want, absolutely take a flier on them. I threw a couple bucks at Chris Flexen, Logan Webb, and Jon Gray. But — and this is a Blair’s been writing too much about pitchers-sized but — don’t give up on your aces. It might take them until May to start rolling. Corbin Burnes — a top 10 SP from 2020 — didn’t even get a starting job on the Brewers until a month into the 2020 season. Shane Bieber started the first month of last season with a 50% hard hit rate and a 10% barrel rate. He finished as SP1. A bunch of people said Clayton Kershaw’s career was donezo after he gave up 3 homers against the Giants in his second game of 2020. He finished as SP8 on the year. In Zach Davies’ first two games of 2020, he had a K/9 under 7 and an ERA of 4.50. He finished as SP12. For real, you’ll be fine. Go learn how to mix a mojito or something, and then while you’re drinking it, don’t touch any healthy pitcher that you consider to be in the top 5 of your rotation. And especially don’t overpay in FAAB for the Randy Dobnak’s of the world.

News and Notes

Trevor Bauer: NEVER MIND START OVERTHINKING YOUR PITCHERS IMMEDIATELY. TB27 led off the Dodgers with 6IP of no hit ball against the Rockies and then it all fell apart after he ran out of pine tar on his hat. 10Ks, 2BB, but 4ER once the Rockies decided to hit the ball. I told you in the pre-season that I was low on Bauer, and the Statcast numbers don’t lie. He faced 25 Rocky batters (that’s their preferred singular pronoun, bee-tee-dubs), and had 13 batted ball events. 7 of those qualified as hard hit and 1 was a barrel. In other words, 53% hard hit rate and 7.7% barrel rate. Yuck! And you ask yourself, “how did I end up in this large automobile…and there was barrel on the bat on only one of those BBEs! Let the days go by!” Still, FIP of 5.47 and an 84% contact rate on pitches in the zone should make you retweet his agent Rachel Luba’s question whether TB27 could get grandfathered into the pine tar spin club (that really happened, I’m not being sarcastic). Bauer-lovers will keep shouting “If you know, you know,” and that’s fine. Ignorance is bliss in my case.

Tanner HouckMade everybody excited when he got an April start and struck out 8 over 5IP. However, reports say that he’s not going to be on the big league roster for long. He’s got a little bit more service time to mangle, so the Red Sox have every incentive to keep him down until somebody gets hurt. Roster Houck if you want, but don’t consider him a permanent fix for glaring holes in your rotation.

Yusei Kikuchi6IP, 10K, 3ER. Whew! You know I’m on the Kukuchi shinkansen, but let’s tell both sides of the story: he was hit just as hard as Bauer above. But, you know, Kikuchi came 25 rounds later in your draft. FAAB him hard if he’s on the wire in your league.

Zack WheelerDude hung out in my “Your SP1” tier in the pre-season and you got rewarded with 7IP and 10Ks, 0BB and 0ER. If you’re in roto, that’s a wet dream. If you’re in a points league, that’s your [thinks of a synonym for “wet dream”] moist fantasy! Bois and 3 lady readers and 1 enby reader, Zack Wheeler is my moist fantasy.

Corbin Burnes6.1 IP, 11K, 1ER. I love how we start the no-hitter watches in the 5th inning now. Like, there’s 40% of the game left to play, and MLB starts dishing out the “no-hitter watch!” alerts to my phone like the NASA is about to shoot a nuclear warhead into Mt. Olympus. NASA is charge of that stuff, right? ENYWHEY. I wrote up Burnes in the pre-season and gave him a recommendation as a pitcher but not quite at his ADP. I know a lot of you ended up with him as your SP1/SP2, and you’re absolutely dancing right now. If he keeps up at even a modicum of this rate, you’ve got a top 10 SP for a drastically reduced ADP cost. Fingers crossed!

Jose BerriosThe other half of that “dualing no-hitter,” Berrios finished with 6IP, 12K, and naughts across the rest of the board. Of the 6 batted ball events against him, only 1 resulted in a barrel/hard hit. I ended up with Berrios as my SP1 on my industry teams and most people thought I was crazy. Sure, I’m non-normative. But I’m also on top of the pitcher rankings with Berrios right now. Come, take my throne from me.

Zach PlesacZach Attack was a favorite of some high-stakes players and sparked non-stop internet discussion this winter. For cereal: take a lesson from Cinnamon Toast Crunch and know that every delicious thing can come with some spiced shrimp tails once in a while. You know I’m not a fan of Plesac or his bleached hair, and it’s worth pointing out that his xFIP of 5.86 from his first start is, and I say this with italics, alarming. 20 batted ball events, max EV of 110.6, average launch angle of 21.3 (which is basically the home run sweet spot), and 40% hard hit rate. Only one of those hits landed on the barrel. With Plesac only taking 4 batters out by means of the strikeout, he made his defense do a ton of work, and it was more luck than anything that landed him with only 2 ER over 6IP. Fun fact: if you pro-rate Plesac’s first start into three starts, his stat line is basically Randy Dobnak’s first three games from last year. Are you glad you drafted Plesac in the 6th round now? ENYWHEY. Plesac should do better than 2020 Dobnak, and perhaps his bleached hair will drive a Lyft down Santa Monica Blvd on his way to the beach to violate team Covid protocols.

Jack Flaherty and Luis Castillo: You’re all shouting right now, “EWB YOU TOLD ME TO DRAFT FLAHERTY!” Actually, I told you to draft Brandon Woodruff and Jose Berrios. But yes, Flaherty was a sweet option too. And Flaherty and Castillo rewarded you by each getting blown out for a combined 14 runs. Yuck. Also, ya’know what I’ve been saying about Bauer and Plesac managing to avoid barrels on their hard hit balls? Well, Flaherty and Castillo each finished with a 30% hard hit rate and way more barrels. In other words, baseball is a game of inches. You’re off by an inch, you get a hard hit. You’re on by an inch, you barrel a home run. Flaherty and Castillo are just on the unlucky side of that inch right now, and Bauer and Plesac are on the lucky side. This is why we don’t make drastic moves after 1 start. Remember my pre-season rant about Gerrit Cole having a month in 2020 where his FIP was 6.00 and he was giving up 3 HR/9? That’s basically what you’re seeing from Flaherty and Castillo right now. Hold the fort, and if you see a manager trying to trade these players, snag them.

Shane BieberThere was a really dumb April 1 joke on the Tweeters about how Bieber’s velocity was way down in his first start. He pitched in a freaking snow storm. He struck out 12 batters in a level of snowfall that that would send me inside to watch horror movies, and I grew up and live in Minnesota/Wisconsin. He’ll be fine.

Elieser HernandezLeft his game with biceps inflammation and an 85MPH fastball. Nope, there is nothing good about that. Sometimes injuries are just injuries. But over the last ten years, that injury has taken about 30-50 days to mitigate. So, this armchair prognosticator is telling you that Hernandez could miss 10-20% of the season. If you hear other reports, go with those. But pitchers who come back too early from this type of injury and have severely reduced velocity do not fare well.

Taylor Widener: Wider, wider…too wide! I really hope he’s a good dude in real life because his name sounds like a tool. Deep leaguers can go throw some FAAB at the fill-in for Zac Gallen. Dude K’d 5 Padres and gave up 3 hits and nary a run over 6IP. His run may not be long and his control is pretty lousy, but if you’re in one of those NL-Only leagues or 700 MLB player leagues, you’re looking at a guy who led the Diamondbacks to a victory against the Padres. Nice.

FAAB God, Millionaire

We all came here just to FAAB! I’m adding a new section for your FAAB targets. Now, I usually write my articles geared toward your average 12-team fantasy baseballer, but I know that I also get significant traction from those NFBC degenerates looking for every last drop of edge they can milk from the system. So, here’s what I got. I’m not going to add a FAAB $ because honestly, everything’s relative. If you’re in a desperate situation, spend what you need. If you’re good, don’t spend. It’s not like you’re winning an award for most or least FAAB spent.

Taylor WidenerHeld of the Padres, may not stay in MLB long.

Jose De LeonTwo starter this week.

Alex Cobb22% K-BB% and a BABIP of .412. Could be nice this year.

Chris FlexenThe former KBO Flexer K’d a bunch of Giants without giving up a run. That’s also not saying much.

Tanner HouckSee above

Adrian Morejon5th Padre starter? Who remembers the Hodgepadres?

Logan Webb: Yeah, sure, try it out.

Rankings

I, uh, told ya already that I’m not moving anybody until next week at the earliest. I mean, we literally had pitchers throwing in snow storms this week. If you want the moving rankings, Rudy has that in his rest of season calculator if you click up at the top of the page. But me? I’m not going to let Taylor Widener set the pace for your fantasy season.  Stay calm and FAAB the hot hitters like Yermin Mercedes and Kyle Isbel if you’re in regular leagues.

Name 2021 K-BB% 2021 SIERA ’19-20 CSW%
Shane Bieber 25.87 3.06 32.9
Jacob deGrom 27.9 2.79 30.7
Yu Darvish 22.99 3.24 31.8
Brandon Woodruff 20.22 3.66 28.5
Aaron Nola 18.81 3.74 31.9
Trevor Bauer 20.07 3.63 29.9
Luis Castillo 20.43 3.53 29.9
Jack Flaherty 19.41 3.71 30.6
Max Scherzer 24.5 3.48 31.9
Walker Buehler 21.28 3.41 30.1
Gerrit Cole 25.59 3.33 33.3
Lucas Giolito 19.63 3.92 31.6
Lance Lynn 17.81 4.06 27.3
Jose Berrios 17.26 4.09 29.1
Hyun-Jin Ryu 15.38 4.11 27.5
Clayton Kershaw 19.56 3.46 29.5
Zac Gallen 17.45 4.03 31.3
Corbin Burnes 18.33 3.94 31.2
Zack Wheeler 16.14 4.06 25.9
Zach Eflin 14.82 4.5 27.2
Kenta Maeda 17.45 4.13 31.8
Kevin Gausman 18.35 3.74 29.9
Kyle Hendricks 14.77 4.21 29.6
Andrew Heaney 17.69 4.27 29.2
Blake Snell 20.38 3.33 31.7
Tyler Glasnow 21.9 3.55 32.3
German Marquez 16.14 4.29 29.6
Sonny Gray 16.78 3.94 30.7
Zack Greinke 16.24 4.16 29.8
Dylan Bundy 15.4 4.57 30.3
Charlie Morton 17.56 3.82 30.9
Chris Paddack 18.3 3.85 28.6
Tyler Mahle 16.46 4.48 29.7
Patrick Corbin 15.57 4.1 28.2
Marco Gonzales 12.74 4.55 27.4
Pablo Lopez 14.27 4.02 26.2
Joe Musgrove 16.5 3.9 29.1
Lance McCullers Jr. 16.24 3.71 32.2
Jesus Luzardo 16.57 3.84 31.1
Zach Plesac 14.47 4.75 27.5
Dallas Keuchel 9.21 4.44 25.3
Mike Minor 13.25 4.68 28.7
Sandy Alcantara 10.96 4.46 25.9
Chris Bassitt 13.45 4.4 27.2
Marcus Stroman 11.87 4.03 26.8
Max Fried 13.91 4.01 28.2
John Means 14.39 4.83 25
Matthew Boyd 17.01 4.43 29.2
Jose Quintana 13.66 4.44 26.5
Nathan Eovaldi 17.45 4.27 28.5
Jordan Montgomery 15.88 4.37 29.1
Ian Anderson 13.46 4.37 30.3
Elieser Hernandez 14.9 4.64 28.9
Triston McKenzie 16.32 4.61 29.3
Drew Smyly 18.69 4.25 29.1
Dinelson Lamet 22.88 3.35 32.5
James Paxton 17.32 4.11 28.4
Zach Davies 9.09 4.98 25.9
Robbie Ray 16.8 4.58 30.4
Danny Duffy 12.93 4.84 26.7
Ryan Yarbrough 11.63 4.71 28.1
Jake Odorizzi 16.91 4.42 26.8
Yusei Kikuchi 14.3 4.28 25.6
Griffin Canning 14.41 4.58 29.2
Aaron Civale 14.12 4.58 27.8
Brady Singer 12.02 4.33 32.3
Sixto Sanchez 13.93 3.93 26.8
Sean Manaea 13.85 4.24 27.9
Eduardo Rodriguez 15.64 4.47 27.9
Adam Wainwright 11.15 4.46 28.4
J.A. Happ 13.33 4.58 25.1
Michael Pineda 15.55 4.43 27.4
Julio Urias 13.57 4.34 27.3
Taijuan Walker 13.17 4.59 26.8
Dustin May 15.86 3.66 26.7
Freddy Peralta 19.24 4.1 29.6
Streamers / Dart Throws Below
Name 2021 K-BB% 2021 SIERA ’19-20 CSW%
Tejay Antone 13.26 4.36 34.1
Steven Matz 14.21 4.64 27.5
Tarik Skubal 16.55 4.34 25.5
Alex Wood 13.2 4.16 26.8
Carlos Carrasco 21.66 3.52 30.3
Antonio Senzatela 6.71 5.52 23.5
Brad Keller 8.07 4.67 24.4
Kyle Gibson 10.79 4.64 27.9
Madison Bumgarner 11.32 5.22 27.4
Kyle Freeland 8.68 5.26 25.5
Stephen Strasburg 17.14 4.05 31
Spencer Turnbull 12.34 4.31 25.5
Johnny Cueto 11.94 4.53 24.8
Frankie Montas 14.54 4.16 29.3
Jon Gray 11.17 5.11 28
Alec Mills 10.63 4.89 28
Alex Cobb 11.51 4.54 28.5
Steven Brault 8.49 4.82 26.4
Jose Urquidy 15.35 4.49 28.9
Merrill Kelly 12.87 4.72 27
Corey Kluber 18.64 4.03 28.3
Mike Fiers 8.97 5.35 25.4
Anthony DeSclafani 13.96 4.37 25.7
Kwang Hyun Kim 13.08 4.09 #N/A
Mike Soroka 12.09 4.27 27
Justus Sheffield 9.72 4.65 27.6
Jon Lester 10.91 4.96 25.5
Caleb Smith 14.11 5.17 28.1
Cristian Javier 14.05 4.95 26.7
Ross Stripling 13.19 4.67 29.7
Dylan Cease 12.71 4.58 26.3
Adrian Houser 11.41 4.39 27.2
Jake Arrieta 8.54 4.81 26.7
Michael Wacha 11.89 4.78 24.2
Dane Dunning 12.61 4.59 28.2
Luke Weaver 15.21 4.56 27.1
Chris Archer 16.85 4.35 30.1
Dean Kremer 10.4 5.09 26
Mitch Keller 12.65 4.38 25.4
Jameson Taillon 14.8 4.45 29.7
Brett Anderson 9.32 4.47 24.5
Logan Allen 11.83 4.8 25.6
Garrett Richards 13 4.82 28.6
Keegan Akin 10.91 5.2 28.8
Chad Kuhl 10.9 4.78 27.9
Cal Quantrill 12.98 4.73 24.9
David Price 16.82 3.99 28.7
Matt Shoemaker 13.67 4.61 28.5
Randy Dobnak 8.18 4.69 25.7
Rick Porcello 13.29 4.73 25.2
Nick Pivetta 12.08 5.17 26.6
Eric Lauer 12.75 4.82 25.4
David Peterson 10.67 4.4 27.7
Shohei Ohtani 13.13 4.58 #N/A
Tony Gonsolin 19.24 3.74 27.8
A.J. Puk 17.04 3.9 31.2
Kohei Arihara 13.04 4.82 #N/A
Spencer Howard 13.72 4.69 27.1
Framber Valdez 15.49 3.56 28.6
Domingo German 15.48 4.7 29.6
Justin Dunn 9.59 5.28 26.8
John Gant 8.21 4.7 29.5

Aye, you made it this far, didn’t ya. EverywhereBlair is, well, located at home right now. He’s a historian and lover of prog-metal. He enjoys a good sipping rum. When he’s not churning data and making fan fiction about Grey and Donkey Teeth, you can find him dreaming of shirtless pictures of Lance Lynn on Twitter @Everywhereblair.

 
  1. Coolwhip says:
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    Hi, this is WhipItGood69,
    Please tell me Carrasco has predator blood like Framber. kthxbai

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      As our resident Predatorphile would tell you, “PREDATOR DOESN’T HAVE HEALING POWERS”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Predator can’t heal, cmon

  2. David says:
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    Dobnak just got a 5 year contract extension. I understand he has no opportunity at the moment. I even understand his past strikeout rate is nothing special. A really odd guy to single out though. He starts, I’d start him.

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Ackshually, I just wrote up the Dobnak contract for my other other other other internet job at Pitcher List: https://www.pitcherlist.com/team-friendly-examining-the-randy-dobnak-contract/

      I’d encourage you to look at his contract as bit team friendly, because he’ll be making less money than the league average and if he went through arbitration. But for a guy who had no cash before, getting money in the hand now is a nice gain.

      But Dobnak is likely to be closer to the 7% K-BB% guy seen last year than anything else, so his career trajectory is definitely in hard mode. Everybody has the ability to find their way in the MLB, but for fantasy purposes, I’d avoid Dobnak. Thanks for checking in!

      • David says:
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        A striking thing about Dobnak’s career is how little time he spent in the minors. Most players who get drafted in the first round spend more time in the minor leagues than he did.

        Your evaluation of him based on extrapolation assumes a finished product, which he may very well be, but is a poor approach for fantasy success.

        How many prospects have power that will develop? How many Cleveland pitchers or Dodgers starting pitchers do you assume are going to have mediocre fantasy success?

        I understand the Twins don’t have the history of those franchises, but the pitching acumen has been night and day different under new management. You commented on his Spring Training 2021 stats and different pitch mix in your linked article and obviously studied him extensively. Nonetheless, I believe you miss the big picture in the context of fantasy, which is more about seeing the possible than documenting the past.

        His value will be $5- $10 per start on the end of the season per player rater, a solid streamer at minimum.

        Sorry, you missed this one.

        • everywhereblair

          everywhereblair says:
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          Happy to take the L on that one. :)

          Alexa, set a reminder to check Randy Dobnak’s value on the Player Rater in September!

  3. JKJ

    JKJ says:
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    Can we at least get Greinke in a ‘Stros uniform or something? Who runs this show around here?

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      “Alexa, find me a picture of a baseball pitcher that isn’t under copyright”

      Greinke in a Royals uni.

      • JKJ

        JKJ says:
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        *Homer shrinking into the bushes GIF*

  4. PatPat says:
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    No ranking/index in each row? Or is that just me on mobile? Would be great to see each pitcher’s ranking

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Hey PatPat,

      I don’t rank numerically, as I explained in some of my earlier posts. Instead I rank in tiers, and for right now, the tiers are taken off because it’s a whole bunch of extra editing to do for something that won’t return proper value.

      Specific tiers are located in this post (as noted, I haven’t changed anything, and depending on how the next week unfolds, we’ll see if pitchers start moving and necessitate tiers next week): https://razzball.com/top-100-starting-pitchers-preseason-sanjikai-edition/

      Thanks for checking in!

  5. DA says:
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    I mean, you could move injured guys, no? Elieser doesn’t need to be there anymore

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Certainly, but when I submitted the article he was still on the active roster with no conclusive report on his injury other than “inflammation.”

      Post-update: He’s on the IL now.

      Thanks for checking in!

  6. Anodyne says:
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    In my standard 12-team league, both Jesús Luzardo and Marco Gonzales have hit the waiver wire. My starting rotation consists of the following:

    Yu Darvish
    Andrew Heaney
    Germán Márquez
    Freddy Peralta
    Matthew Boyd
    Marcus Stroman
    Mike Minor
    Casey Mize

    Would you drop any of my current guys for Luzardo and/or Gonzales? If so, which ones?

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Hey Anodyne!

      I’d take Luzardo over just about everybody other than Heany/Darvish lol.

      You know I like Gonzales but he’ll be available later. I’d take him over Peralta and below.

      In preference of drops, I’d drop Mize and Minor/Boyd and grab Luzardo / Gonzales.

      Hope it goes well!

  7. GloryDays says:
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    What are your thoughts on Trevor Rogers? Take Kikuchi over him?

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Hey Glory Days!

      I like Kikuchi a lot (and so does Donkey Teeth, my new ranking hero). Rogers is going to be really volatile in most formats this year — he’s 23 and still putting things together. He’s got a nice upside though, and if he can manage to control his pitches by reducing his walk rate, we can see that elusive 20% K-BB% that is characteristic of top 50-caliber pitchers.

      That said, in most formats right now, I take Kikuchi.

      Good luck!

      • GloryDays says:
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        Thank you! I’m new to Razzball and really enjoying all the posts and insights.

  8. Bauer's Dad says:
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    The Bauer hate from industry writers is like at incensed frothing at the mouth levels. I think every fangraphs writer had his decline as a “bold” prediction. Guy throws a no hitter through 6 at Coors and you’re saying yuck. Yeah okay dude.

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      What’s up BD?

      See, the great thing about being an editor on the site is that I can see the other aliases you’ve used to rag on other writers, and that’s fine. You do you with your time, right? I dunno about the FG guys and their Bauer takes. I’m open about my dislike for Bauer, and ultimately, he’s still in my top 10, which is totally fine when looking at SP outcomes. I’m twice as high on him as Grey is! Bully for me! I’m not asking anybody to get excited about Bauer, I’m just asking people not to draft/acquire him at his present cost due to his abnormally high barrel rate, hard hit %, and launch angle. That’s all. If you like Bauer and are in a place to afford his cost on your fantasy team, more power too you and I wish you the best of luck with that. Cheers and see ya around the site.

      • Bauer's Dad says:
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        I think I’ve posted like 3 whole comments here and two were for a guy with rankings that fully deserved to be ragged on.

        Anyway, I watched his whole start and he was dealing. Whether he is using substances and that gets disallowed is kind of a binary game changer that is yet to be seen. If that happens mea culpa (I’ll bet on the dodgers $30M a year worth of due diligence there). With that aside though I don’t really get the group think negativity surrounding him. My hunch is it’s his personality. Yeah he’s a flyball pitcher so I guess that gives him a higher barrel rate, but if anything the move to Dodger stadium and a supposedly less juiced ball will give him even a further advantage compared to last year. Plus I like intelligent pitchers with a lot of weapons (I think he also added a slider this year).

        Overalll thanks for the thoughtful writeup.

      • dubjay says:
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        I can still smell the smoke from that burn. Nicely done Blair!

  9. Dong Show says:
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    Not sure how much of an overreaction this was, but I just cut Heaney for Yuli Gurriel.

    Looking at his next two opponents, there was a strong chance I didn’t play him in either and right now all I have is Christian Walker as my 1b (as I wait for Voit to recover)

    I wanted to give Heaney a chance, but I saw myself getting more use from Yuli than I would him. Is this a logical and sound cut based on what I am saying, EWB?

    I know people love to say Heaney is gonna breakout, but I feel like I had a safer and more useful floor in Yuli.

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Hey Dong Show!

      I know you’re a Razzball regular, and you might have a copy of the War Room in front of you. You know who is ridiculously high in the War Room? Yuli Gurriel. I know! The Razzball staff talked about him a lot in the pre-season. Like, he’s a Flat Sexy Dr. Pepper. There’s nothing that passes the sniff test on Gurriel to get excited about. But, the numbers are there, and the projection is there.

      So, I support your move. I trust Rudy, and I trust his system. He factors in more, well, factors than any prognosticator. He’s high on Gurriel, and I take him over Heaney every time — assuming you’ve got a rotation that can account for the loss of Heaney.

      Best of luck!

      • Dong Show says:
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        Appreciate the repose EWB!! I Have Erod ideally coming back this weekend to replace Heaney so that felt like a solid in house guy to take over. I subscribe to the Grey philosophy of just having a bunch of solid guys or guys who can contribute like aces (I play in dynasty)but I feel good with what I have. I am ALWAYS a bat over arm guy, and love Yuli so that response made me feel much better hahah

        Castillo
        Bundy
        Musgrove
        Alcantara
        Ohtani
        Davies
        Urquidy
        Montgomery
        Erod*

        Alex Reyes
        Amir Garret
        Romano
        Gonsolin*

        and then in minors I have Framber*, Keller, Mize, Trevor Rogers, Patino

        So I think I have the depth to survive. I just didn’t want to wait out the Heaney hype train when I can snag guaranteed production.

        Thanks as always for the response!

      • yeah agreed on gurriel. i’m not sure there has ever been a better year to avoid 1B-only bats in the first 15 rounds. so many solid 1Bs were available late – off top of head included Gurriel, Walsh, Votto, Evan White, Colin Moran, Nate Lowe. Just beautiful for best ball. I ended up with more Evan White and Colin Moran just b/c they were free.

        • Dong Show says:
          (link)

          White was my other guy I was considering (weird he is still out there for the taking in my dynasty, I just don’t have room for him) but I agree. There is always a ton of value to be had if you know where to look or how too pair a few things to replicate one guy (nothing more I love than selling a good 2-1 where I get the better guy or guy I wanted and having a free replacement of the other guy I just traded away sitting in FA)

          Keep up the great work guys! Razz truly is one of the best fantasy sites out there because of the quality and depth of content plus writers like you two. There is a reason you’re the first website I go to when I wake up.

  10. mcstarrs says:
    (link)

    Great writing! Will be looking forward to this column. Anyone who can use the word moist when talking about fantasy baseball has my attention!

    I personally tried Logan Webb out, and he made me drier than the sahara dessert.

    Keeping my eye on Lyles, and Matz. For some reason, I really like Justus Sheffield also.

    • everywhereblair

      everywhereblair says:
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      Hey mcstarrs!

      Thanks for the support! My ranking system was unreasonably high on Matz, and I artificially placed him lower in my pre-season tiers due to opportunity. And then the guy goes lights out. So, come the in-season rankings next week-ish, Matz is going to get promoted to “moist fantasy” tier.

      Cheers!

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