Fantasy playoffs! I don’t kink shame here. If you’re Googling “MLB Playoff Fan Fiction,” that’s your thing. My thing? Ranking pitchers in a giant table. We’re down to the last month of the MLB regular season — and many fantasy leagues are in the playoffs already — so you’ll want to start any hot hand you think will help your team. Within reason, of course. We’re going to see a lot of rookie starters called up, and even with their immense hype (see Cabrera, Edward), they can still put up lackluster performances that don’t really help your cause. As always, consult Rudy’s Streamonator Tools (and if you’re not subscribed, where have you been? Jump in and support us!) and check-in with the writers throughout the week. We’re here to help!

Top 100 Starting Pitchers Header

Triston McKenzie: The Cardiac Kid stopped my heart this week because he went on the IL with shoulder fatigue. McKenzie broke out of Guardians camp in early 2021 with a ton of expectations but failed to deliver, going with a 5+ ERA/FIP/xFIP through July accompanied by a stunning 6+ BB/9. Let’s put that in perspective: it was about as bad as Robbie Ray’s 2020. Why do I keep referencing Robbie Ray? Because he’s that wild pitcher that set the Mendoza Line for hurlers and then chased the Cy Young. Meanwhile, the 24-year old McKenzie is following in Ray’s footsteps by fully reinventing himself in the middle of the season. Over his last 4 starts, McKenzie has a sub-2.00 ERA, a 2.40 FIP, a 26.5% K-BB%, and a 14.6% swinging-strike rate. Even better, he’s walking less than 1 per nine innings, which is more redonkulous than Grey’s spec script about Dunkin’ Man — The superhero powered by Dunkin’ Donuts (also a crossover with Space Jam 2). Let’s all remember that the Guardians are racing to the bottom and sold off a bunch of players to help them do that. Shane Bieber is basically asking to pitch right now and the Guardians are saying no; I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some kid gloves on McKenzie for the rest of 2021. Of course, McKenzie wants to right the ship as much as possible this year; the Guardians, meanwhile, are looking at his service time clock. With a .10 clock as of right now, the Guardians could feasibly keep McKenzie up for most of next year and he still might be under the 1 year service time mark. All this [waves up there] is really just the preamble to my novel: The Pitcher (with the main character Gerralt Cole). Throw a coin to your Pitcher! The TL;DR that I shoulda put at the top of the paragraph: we don’t have enough data to say that McKenzie is fixed, and we may not see him much again this year. Stay tuned to Grey’s 2022 draft rankings, when he reveals the end of my novel! In the meantime, look at this sweet curveball action:

Edward CabreraWho says baseball isn’t romantic? The 23-year old raced through the minors in 2021, going from Single-A to Triple-A in one year, and this week he made his MLB debut for the Miami Marlins.

But for E-Cab, who is described as “Just like Sixto Sanchez but way healthier right now,” he notched his first MLB K, and it’s a beauty. Luckily for the sake of this post, he only got 1 other K that night. Overall, it was an unimpressive outing, where he walked 3 and struck out 2 while allowing 2 homers over 6 IP. But that 6 IP — sawheet. That’s what teams need now.

Adbert AlzolayAt a certain point, your work environment breaks you down and destroys you. Yes, this is a peak capitalism critique. Alzolay looked really good in the beginning of the year and then after the Cubs sold the entire team for a pack of disc golf hammers, it seemed like Alzolay just stopped caring. He’s due to come back from the IL soon, but I don’t think I’d pick him up in any format outside of DFS. Next year he’ll be a sleeper target because he’s got games where he has a near-20% swinging-strike rate (even recently). However, he also has games where he’s basically a Twins-style pitch to contact maestro, except that contact always leaves the park. With the Cubs looking like the Washington Generals of the MLB to finish out 2021, the 20% of you that are hoping for an Alzolay return to glory can probably relax and give up hope in 2021.

Yusei KikuchiHe’s been rocked in his past two games and it might have something to do with his 2-3 MPH drop in velocity recently. For those not in the know: that’s a bad thing. A really bad thing. In late May/early June, Kikuchi was averaging 96+ on his fastball; that fastball is down to 93-94 now. We’re probably looking at him getting tired, and the Mariners really need Kikuchi to regain form in order to stay in the playoff hunt. I don’t think Kikuchi will get the rest he’ll need to stay productive, so I’m going to aggressively say that Kikuchi managers should sit him going forward or — if your trade deadline hasn’t passed — try to pass him off onto another manager. I love Kikuchi for 2022, but it’s clear he’s out of gas.

Kenta Maeda: Update: Maeda going under the knife for an undetermined elbow surgery. The remaining is what I had written prior to the news, and I think it’s still valuable for fantasy managers to consider when evaluating pitchers, so I’m leaving it. However, Maeda is officially done for the year…and depending on what happens during his surgery, he might be done for next year as well.

Is traveling the country looking for opinions on his arm. The local Minnesota fishwrap, The Star Tribune, reports that Maeda’s facing a problem: the contract the Dodgers signed him to was laden with playing time incentives; the Twins now control that contract. Maeda is 4 starts away from a $1.5 million bonus, and 34 IP away from a $1 million bonus. And…there are about 4-5 starts left in the season, and if Maeda took the field right now, he could probably make the GS bonus and have an outside chance at making the IP bonus. The problem is: his arm is tight. We know many pitchers right now who are throwing with partially torn UCLs — Zac Gallen and Dinelson Lamet for example — but these pitchers also know that their elbows could give at any moment. Maeda has a decision to make: throw through the pain and perhaps made a 30% salary bonus, or sit and possibly have the exact same problem crop up next year and lower his take-home pay even more. Long story short: Maeda’s 2020 was beautiful, and we should celebrate that. However, it looks like we’ve lost the Maeda we knew and loved to arm fatigue, and he might not be fantasy relevant all the way through 2022. If you’ve got him in a dynasty league, it’s time to unload for whatever value you can get. [Update: that value won’t be much].

Sonny GrayI mean this job gets to me sometimes. When people complain about my rankings, I double-check them, and triple-check them, and so on. I mean, I wish I was making Eno Sarris money to do this. I remember my first job was at Barnes and Noble, and we had some people with Masters degrees working in the backroom taking orders and running shipments. I mean, that’s basically me: Doc EWB working in the backroom of a bookstore doing pitcher projections that are really good. Any why do I mention this? Because my pitcher projections were well within margins of errors on just about every player, except Sonny Gray. Like, y’all thought you had me with Andrew Heaney, but Sonny Gray was the actual outlier. And now, Sonny Gray’s the #2 pitcher on the Player Rater over the past week, and the #9 SP over the past month. So, the system works. It’s just that people generally don’t understand the timeframes where these things come into play. I’m not listing pitchers to replicate the Player Rater; you can just go scroll up [waves up] and look at the Player Rater if you want to know who the top pitcher is right now. But what about next month or in two weeks?  As much as we like Lance Lynn, he’s SP72 over the last month, and in 5 out of his last 7 starts, he’s failed to register a swinging strike rate above 10%. [pats self on back] And what’s wacky, is that even when I recommended Lynn last Saturday for DFS, it was because he had the best track record of any pitcher on the slate. Like, we’re getting into sketchy starting pitcher territory; and even Lynn went out there for a 7 ER bombing. Yeesh. ENYWHEY. I’m not here trying to engagement farm y’all. I’m here to tell you where the data leads, and the question every fantasy manager needs to ask is, “At what point in the bell curve of outcomes are we currently residing?” Because little ol’ Sonny Gray is making a late-season surge and winning leagues for managers. Yes, he looks like crap on the season-long Player Rater, but it’s what he’s doing right now that you should care about as you approach the playoffs.

Carlos HernandezStill available in almost all leagues, 7th on the Player Rater over the past month. You know the drill.

Cal QuantrillHey I’m happy to be wrong but he’s still sporting FIP/xFIP over double his ERA and a SIERA nearly triple, and most of his success has come from a short-lived burst of success on his slider…which is precipitously declining in whiff rate. Still, injuries about and if you’re looking for a pitcher, might as well take a flier.

Cal Quantrill

Visualization courtesy Alex Chamberlain

Noah SyndergaardHurt again in recovery from TJ surgery. If there’s one thing I learned from Grey while drafting this pre-season: DO NOT LOAD UP ON INJURY RECOVERY GUYS IN BEST BALL. I thought I was smart to get Luis Severino and Chris Sale in my RazzSlam team. Sale’s debut was delayed by over a month and Severino still hasn’t shown up. Looks like Thor won’t really pitch this season. Sigh.

Shohei OhtaniGot hit in the hand while batting, although he stayed in the game after demonstrating major pain. Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com says he’s still on track to make his Tuesday start, but I dunno. Weekly league lineup people: refresh the injury report like mad on Monday.

Space:X Rankings

Week 24 Pitcher Data.xls

NameConfidenceIPK-BB%SIERACSW%Rudy ROS
Gerrit Cole3.95158.229.20%2.832.50%38.9
Max Scherzer5.815429.80%2.832.00%27.9
Corbin Burnes5.915230.50%2.5934.10%21
Charlie Morton8.2516521.00%3.531.20%21.7
Aaron Nola9.2157.224.00%3.3230.80%21.5
Kevin Gausman9.7517022.40%3.4630.90%18
Yu Darvish11.0514623.80%3.3830.50%21.9
Robbie Ray11.45170.125.90%3.1430.00%18.3
Joe Musgrove12.3154.220.70%3.632.00%16.5
Brandon Woodruff12.4163.123.30%3.3429.80%21.5
Lucas Giolito15.9158.120.80%3.730.10%21.2
Julio Urias17163.121.60%3.5830.30%9.9
Carlos Rodon17.6124.228.50%2.8930.20%16.3
Walker Buehler18.118619.50%3.7529.30%19.2
Zack Wheeler18.75195.123.50%3.228.10%20.2
Jose Berrios19.1166.119.80%3.7129.10%17.5
Freddy Peralta20.112523.00%3.5130.70%9.7
Sean Manaea21.45156.220.90%3.6129.10%10.6
Nathan Eovaldi21.55163.220.80%3.6329.90%7
Frankie Montas21.7163.219.70%3.7529.30%11.3
Logan Webb22.55118.120.30%3.1831.50%6.2
Dylan Cease22.6151.121.20%3.6930.10%8.5
Lance McCullers Jr.22.85138.116.00%4.0531.50%16.6
Luis Garcia24.313320.30%3.7230.30%9.2
Sonny Gray25.1113.219.50%3.7230.50%10.6
Tyler Mahle25.7159.119.70%3.7829.70%7.3
Clayton Kershaw26.75106.125.60%3.0832.40%
German Marquez28.616716.10%3.9528.70%9.2
Blake Snell29.0512818.40%4.0129.30%15.9
Jacob deGrom29.29241.70%1.7435.80%-2.6
Adam Wainwright29.95184.116.30%3.9930.30%3
Shohei Ohtani30.65115.120.10%3.7128.70%9.2
Shane McClanahan31.2110.120.20%3.6331.50%
Trevor Rogers31.95118.219.40%3.8130.50%3.8
Max Fried33.15136.217.20%3.8428.10%15.8
Hyun-Jin Ryu33.8157.215.00%4.1728.50%12.8
Eduardo Rodriguez33.85136.120.50%3.6528.10%6.7
Sandy Alcantara35.15180.217.70%3.7427.80%5.7
Shane Bieber36.690.225.30%3.1833.90%-5.8
Collin McHugh36.78.235.70%2.1339.50%
Andrew Heaney36.912019.60%3.8528.30%9.1
Marcus Stroman3816315.70%3.9528.50%2
Luis Castillo38.317014.30%4.0727.40%15.1
Chris Sale38.62522.00%3.3832.10%
Framber Valdez38.611611.90%3.8128.50%9.6
Yusei Kikuchi38.714615.00%4.1729.00%5.7
Jordan Montgomery38.75138.115.70%4.1828.60%8.1
Alex Cobb39.277.217.70%3.6630.50%
Huascar Ynoa39.671.220.70%3.5731.10%-3.8
Chris Bassitt40.6515119.50%3.7728.20%
Patrick Sandoval42.4579.216.70%3.9731.00%
Alex Wood44.4125.218.00%3.7632.00%-9.2
Lance Lynn44.45135.219.70%3.825.80%18.4
JT Brubaker45.2124.116.90%4.0428.60%
Brady Singer45.4120.213.20%4.3530.40%1.5
Rich Hill45.6513614.60%4.3830.60%-1.7
Austin Gomber45.65115.114.80%4.2930.40%
Tarik Skubal46.05130.119.30%3.8427.50%2.9
Alek Manoah46.158517.10%4.0827.80%11.2
Jakob Junis46.227.120.40%3.6830.20%
Domingo German489116.60%4.1429.70%
Chris Paddack48.1106.116.30%4.1127.20%11.3
Adbert Alzolay48.1106.116.90%4.0228.70%-2.6
John Means48.25126.118.10%4.1427.50%6.2
Steven Matz48.812915.40%4.1327.80%3.7
Mike Minor48.95158.216.10%4.226.80%7.4
Jose Urquidy49.1584.216.70%4.2928.30%7.6
Corey Kluber49.46515.20%4.329.50%6.3
Zac Gallen49.79817.20%4.0527.60%6.3
Bailey Ober50.3578.219.80%3.8528.30%-0.2
Anthony DeSclafani50.414616.40%4.0927.20%2.5
Taijuan Walker50.5514014.10%4.4128.70%-0.8
Dane Dunning50.9104.113.80%4.1128.60%0
Tylor Megill51.5577.221.10%3.6327.70%-2.2
Triston McKenzie51.6599.217.40%4.1727.90%3.9
Logan Gilbert51.9595.120.80%3.7326.70%4.7
Michael Pineda52.159015.70%4.2328.70%0.2
Jon Gray52.2131.114.00%4.3128.20%1
Zack Greinke55.15159.212.10%4.5626.60%12.5
Cristian Javier55.2548.219.10%3.9927.40%6.7
James Kaprielian56.25101.215.00%4.428.70%-2.2
Danny Duffy57.456016.90%4.1828.40%
Jameson Taillon58138.216.20%4.327.10%
Joe Ross58.7510316.90%4.0530.40%-12.2
Jack Flaherty59.37618.40%3.9228.10%-4.9
Pablo Lopez60.310121.00%3.5127.70%-10.1
Carlos Carrasco61.0533.217.80%3.9325.90%14.9
Sam Long61.1522.116.80%4.1428.40%
David Price61.2541.113.40%4.2528.40%1.1
Patrick Corbin61.614810.80%4.6326.30%11
Kyle Hendricks62.2166.211.40%4.6827.30%0.4
Ian Anderson62.35109.212.90%4.3927.10%4.2
Nick Pivetta62.6513515.30%4.3326.80%-0.6
Madison Bumgarner62.75129.113.90%4.5628.00%-2.7
Zach Eflin63.9105.218.80%3.8128.30%-13.1
Kyle Gibson65.3155.210.30%4.5827.00%0.7
Michael Wacha65.5591.117.40%4.0225.80%0.8
Matthew Boyd65.678.213.10%4.5627.30%6.3
Drew Smyly65.75115.214.20%4.4127.60%-4.2
David Peterson66.366.213.90%4.2727.40%
Ryan Yarbrough66.911113.60%4.5728.20%-4.4
Tyler Anderson66.9514814.20%4.527.00%-4.2
Ross Stripling68.2586.115.80%4.3226.40%2.2
Aaron Civale69.6102.114.40%4.2825.60%3.5
Zach Plesac70.9125.111.30%4.6926.30%4
Jose Quintana71.33514.10%4.5227.10%6.6
Luke Weaver72.355114.40%4.3627.60%-3.9
Casey Mize73.05140.111.90%4.526.90%-5.8
Spencer Howard73.1531.210.90%4.8328.80%
Paolo Espino7467.115.20%4.3628.00%-7.3
Touki Toussaint74.84513.00%4.4428.50%-6.7
Bruce Zimmermann75.055411.60%4.6727.60%
Martin Perez76.7510011.70%4.6226.50%
Kyle Freeland77.4510213.30%4.4426.70%-5.5
Griffin Canning77.660.111.90%4.7226.90%1.8
Wade Miley77.9155.211.60%4.4425.40%-4.3
Merrill Kelly79.35142.114.30%4.3226.70%-13.2
Tucker Davidson79.752012.00%4.6427.40%
Kwang-hyun Kim79.7596.210.00%4.826.60%
Jorge Lopez80.15113.19.20%4.826.20%
Trevor Cahill80.2535.211.30%4.326.20%
Dallas Keuchel81.3140.15.50%4.9125.80%0.6
Cody Poteet81.3530.212.10%4.7827.30%
Anthony Kay81.6520.116.50%4.0525.00%
Trevor Williams81.7568.213.80%4.3426.60%-6.1
Marco Gonzales81.8118.111.00%4.9625.80%1
Johnny Cueto81.9112.113.80%4.4524.40%
Nestor Cortes82.0553.216.20%4.4825.60%
Jose Suarez82.755.111.70%4.5127.80%-8.4
Josiah Gray83.354411.70%4.927.70%-4.2
Eric Lauer83.484.113.60%4.4825.20%-0.7
Alec Mills83.781.212.50%4.2626.30%-8
Jake Odorizzi83.890.213.30%4.5923.60%7
Eli Morgan84.0571.215.70%4.5226.60%-6.5
Brad Keller84.05133.29.10%4.8425.40%
Cal Quantrill84.3101.212.90%4.4824.90%-2.3
Kyle Muller84.835.210.80%4.9128.50%-6.5
Chris Flexen85.3156.211.30%4.723.70%-1.1
Mike Foltynewicz86.613010.50%4.9425.10%
Kris Bubic87.178.110.00%4.8126.60%-4.1
Erick Fedde87.3511713.10%4.3724.60%-5.9
Brett Anderson88.3588.18.00%4.3524.00%
Antonio Senzatela88.413810.90%4.4224.90%-7.7
Caleb Smith88.7579.50%5.2326.90%
Chad Kuhl89.4678.00%5.127.70%-6.2
Vladimir Gutierrez89.55104.19.90%4.9126.80%-7.1
Jordan Lyles89.6142.211.40%4.825.90%-10
Kolby Allard90.1591.212.40%4.725.60%-5.6
Cole Irvin90.45158.111.10%4.8324.70%-5.9
Vince Velasquez91.9576.110.70%4.926.20%-4.5
Tony Gonsolin9235.210.10%5.0727.00%-3.9
Ranger Suarez92.237.213.00%4.224.60%-4.8
Matt Peacock93.85347.70%4.5827.20%-8.6
Mitch Keller94.38311.10%4.7424.60%-3.3
Michael King95.324.27.00%5.1827.50%-5.4
Zach Thompson96.2562.211.70%4.6826.70%-11.8
Stephen Strasburg96.3521.27.40%5.3228.70%-10.2
Chase De Jong9743.210.20%5.0625.50%
J.A. Happ97.1132.210.30%5.0122.60%-2.4
Tony Santillan97.916.212.20%4.7525.80%-5
Justin Dunn98.2550.19.20%5.1825.40%
Luis Patino98.455512.30%4.7925.50%-6
Garrett Richards98.5110.17.70%5.0324.70%-4.4
Jake Arrieta98.6594.28.80%4.9425.60%-6.8
Adrian Houser100120.16.90%4.823.30%-4.9
Zach Davies100.1141.26.20%5.3226.00%-10.5
Taylor Widener100.96111.70%4.8126.30%-11.6
Josh Fleming101.3556.17.60%4.6924.00%-3
Matt Shoemaker101.5550.25.60%5.3625.70%-1.3
Luis Gil101.951912.20%4.9627.20%-11.3
Matt Harvey102.2127.210.00%4.8524.10%-8.6
Kohl Stewart103.4512.28.60%4.824.10%
Wil Crowe103.5100.19.90%4.925.10%-9.8
Chi Chi Gonzalez104.9876.50%5.3123.50%
Daniel Lynch105.05578.50%5.0925.70%-7.8
JC Mejia105.242.16.90%5.1524.10%
Griffin Jax105.551.29.30%5.1826.90%-12.6
Ryan Weathers106.566.18.70%4.9925.40%-8.3
Deivi Garcia106.98.17.90%5.6528.10%-12.4
Keegan Akin107.4567.28.00%5.2625.90%-9.9
Aaron Sanchez108.430.19.80%4.5625.40%-11.8
Jeff Hoffman108.6454.30%5.725.60%-4.3
Hyeon-jong Yang109.15157.50%5.224.10%
Justus Sheffield110.5573.26.90%5.1625.30%-9.8
John Gant111.05823.60%5.6525.70%-9.6
Lewis Thorpe111.8514.1-3.20%6.2824.90%
Carlos Martinez112.3582.15.80%5.1825.70%-15
Jon Lester112.5119.14.50%5.4723.70%-7.9
Matt Moore113.756.16.80%5.3625.00%-7.5
Dean Kremer113.7553.29.00%5.2223.60%-5.6
Kohei Arihara114.6536.26.40%5.3525.40%-7.9
Johan Oviedo115.7557.24.40%5.4926.20%-14
Bryse Wilson117.0564.28.20%5.1824.60%-12.1
Edward Cabrera117.5512.2-3.70%6.3424.00%-1.3
Jake Woodford118.417.211.10%4.7424.20%-13.5
Chase Anderson119.236.16.00%5.4825.90%-14.7
Wily Peralta120.168.25.80%5.1124.20%-14
Carlos Hernandez120.349.17.70%5.2123.30%-8.4
Matt Manning120.7666.00%5.3424.30%-11.1
Sam Hentges121.05414.50%5.5924.90%-9.9
Logan Allen121.8540.26.70%5.2223.90%-9.8
Randy Dobnak123.134.13.30%4.8120.90%-10.6
Riley Smith123.1251.70%5.924.10%-7
Jose Urena123.15834.50%5.2323.50%-13.3
Tyler Gilbert125.2316.50%5.3723.60%-9.2
Jon Duplantier125.75135.70%5.324.40%-10.9
Thomas Eshelman12718.1-2.30%6.8725.60%-19.6
Spenser Watkins129.9467.00%5.3322.80%-15
Daniel Castano131.9517.13.80%5.6322.10%-10.2
Seth Frankoff136.5513.22.90%5.6919.80%-13.3
Joe Ryan
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Martin Rostoker
Martin Rostoker
11 months ago

Hi Blair,

Your help is always appreciated!

I always appreciate your depth of answers:

1. I have a chance to pick up Kyle Freeman of Colorado whose next start is on the road at Philadelphia. Would you do it or pass?

2. Another possibility is to pick up Glenn Otto of Texas whose next start is at Oakland. Would you pick him or just waive?

3. The yanks have decided to bring up Luis Gil who is on my team will be pitching at home against Toronto. His next start would also be at home against Minn. would you start or sit him on these two starts?

Thanks for working at Labor Day.

Martin

Martin Rostoker
Martin Rostoker
11 months ago

Hi Blair,

I always appreciate your depth of answers:

1. I have a chance to pick up Kyle Freeman of Colorado whose next start is on the road at Philadelphia. Would you do it or pass?

2. Another possibility is to pick up Glenn Otto of Texas whose next start is at Oakland. Would you pick him or just waive?

3. The yanks have decided to bring up Luis Gil who is on my team will be pitching at home against Toronto. His next start would also be at home against Minn. would you start or sit him on these two starts?

Thanks for working at Labor Day.

Martin

longbeachyo
longbeachyo
11 months ago

Yo Blair! Awesome stuff man! I really appreciate the amount of data you put into this column.
Hey, did Carlos Hernandez really have a 22% SS% in his last start? I’m looking at adding him or Reynaldo Lopez. Any input would be much appreciated!

P.S. You need to tell Gray and Rudy to get on board with accepting Bitcoin/crypto payments. I would definately be a subscriber if they did. You’d probably see a few more tips too!

jah
jah
11 months ago

Are you concerned at all about Alex Wood’s poor performance during his third time through lineups?

Yes
Yes
Reply to  everywhereblair
11 months ago

Look at this guy, popping back in six hours later to provide an injury update in a comment. Someone buy this guy a daiquiri stat!

martin rostoker
martin rostoker
11 months ago

Hi Blair,

I am glad that I listened to you and benched Kyle Hendricks. Well done! I enjoy your insight and details. Thanks for being so open to helping your fans!

1. Hendricks next start is home against Pittsburgh. Thoughts?

2. I also have Washington’s Patrick Corbin. His next two starts are home against Pittsburgh and the Mets. I was slightly leaning to starting him on both occasions. Do you agree?

3. I have Austin Gomber of the Rockies> His two next starts are on the road at Texas (Plu1$) and then home against the Braves (-13$). I was going to start him against the Texans and sit him at home against the Braves. Your thoughts.

4. I also picked up Tanner Houck and was going to pitch him against Cleveland at Cleveland. Do you agree?

Thanks!!

Martin

Martin Rostoker
Martin Rostoker
Reply to  everywhereblair
11 months ago

Thanks Blair!

I appreciate your help!

Martin

bobsnyder4210
bobsnyder4210
11 months ago

Hey man…Chris Archer…15 K/9, 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP since returning from IL, in the smallest sample ever analyzed in the known universe.

Any chance he stays good for a while, or is this just a case of “if I know I’m on a pitch count I can throw the crap out of everything,” and it all goes away on his first real start?

Just curious…thanks.

Yes
Yes
11 months ago

Come for the robbie ray blurbs
Stay for the capitalism critiques

Sonny gray is always great when his pitch arsenal is diverse and can go on runs when his control is smooth. He is especially potent in august historically. He does tend to have heavy variance between outcomes so when hes not fully on, it hurts a bit more. Also tends to break down some in sept so watch for that.

As the season went on obviously some names fluctuated but your system was dead on with the charlie morton optimism, and robbie ray to a lesser extent. I think theres high utility for a baseline “confidence” rating whether the pitcher is currently injured or not, just to assess value. Nicely organized but better results, looking forward for the future tweaks and layers you’ve been concocting in your secret library laboratory.

Wish you luck in the playoffs!

Yes
Yes
Reply to  everywhereblair
11 months ago

Oops! Guess ill have to call you “just out for some Cigarettes” blair from now on…

TJ recoveries make you look like a genius when they hit, and leave you scratching your head when they fail, i agree they mostly miss but theres always exceptions.

Here’s to a blair grand slam for 2022!