Howdy folx! Are you asleep at the wheel of your fantasy baseball teams yet? Are you imagining a world where you had a couple hundred more dollars in your pocket and didn’t start your draft with Mike Trout, Lou Bob, and Eloy? Or spend 65% of your FAAB on Huascar Ynoa? Come now, let us commiserate! We’re closing in on the most important weeks of the season while you struggle to get into that last playoff spot so you can take on the team that FAAB’d Shane McClanahan and sold high on Aroldis Garcia. Also, I’ve moved on from the Greinke graphic. See ya later Zack!
Original image: Kinfay Moroti
Fantasy Football
Before we go any further, it’s time to remind you all: it’s Fantasy Football season! Fantasy football is a shorter season, easier lineup, and has a player base nearly four times as large as fantasy baseball. What does that mean for you? Profit! Rudy Gamble, Donkey Teeth, and myself form the Triad of Tackles over on the Razzball Fantasy Football site. You can get Rudy’s award-winning season-long projections for free, and get access to his Fantasy Football Weekly Lineup Tools for $18 a year. A YEAR. And if you’re into DFS, there’s a Fantasy Football DFS Lineup Optimizer for $120 a year. If you don’t know a thing about fantasy football, that’s fine! We’re here to teach you and get you onboarded with a massive community that you can be a shark in a part of. If you’re a casual fan, we’ve got the most amount of free content by quality fantasy footballers (<—Grandma Donk’s word) that you’ll find on the internet. Come check us out!
Pitchers
Chris Sale: It’s time! You lived through Covid and its 18 strains, you lived through the great boba shortage of 2021, you lived through Tiger King and Animal Crossing and The Weeknd at the Super Bowl. And now, you will be rewarded with the greatest sight on this warming earth: 5 innings of Christopher Cross Sale. Take me away! Beat reporters indicate that Cy Young/All-Star/Redwood Tree Cosplayer Chris Sale will be joining the Red Sox staff very soon. Here’s what sale had to say:
“I’m thrilled with what happened today. I had fun. I loved it,” [Sale] added. “I’m just appreciative that I can do that again. And I’ll show up tomorrow and do what I got to do then and whenever I throw next is whenever I throw next.”
I can’t believe we don’t make posters of athlete’s quotes more often. Like, how boss would it be to wake up to this over your bed every day?
Chris Sale is still available in about 20% of Yahoo/ESPN leagues. If you’re in a Razzball Commenter League, I’m very sorry: you picked a competitive crowd and you’re gonna miss out. But you missed out on Furbies and Nintendo Switch and Frolic with Me Elmo, so you’ll make it through this. Only, you’ll be in second place at the end of the season.
What should we expect from Chris Sale? Really, it’s a mystery, and I’m asking you to buy in as if the Red Sox are trying to win their division (and they really are). Sale is under contract for 2 more years, so the last thing the Sox want to do is torch his arm after they spent so much time and money and masks helping him recover. But that said, Sale is notoriously durable, and check out these Chris Sale rest of season projections from Rudy Gamble:
Original image: The Boston Globe
Cal Quantrill: OK, Calvin, you got my attention now. What am I supposed to tell you all about his pitcher who is available in 70% of leagues and just posted a 10K / 0 ER gem on Friday? As I noted in my Friday roundup, Quantrill took the first 6 weeks of the season to reach 10K, and when he got there, he had 11 walks. In July, he had a 5.0 K/9 and a FIP/xFIP near 5.00. But his ERA in that month was 2.86. If we subtract his Friday gem, he had a 6.5 K/9 and an xFIP of 4.99 over the past month. I know other fantasy prognosticators are staring into the sun and seeing sparkles for Quantrill, but I prefer the moon. I see a pitcher who struggles to K batters while still walking 3 per 9, who has an above-average line drive rate of 25%, and a season-long SIERA of 4.60. His swinging strike rate? Under 9%. Quantrill’s Friday performance was noise — not signal — and if he finishes the season on a tear, I give you permission to roast me in the comments even more than you already do. But the data indicate that he’s due for a blowup, and he faces Oakland next. I’ll be under the waterfall praying for all of you who are brave enough to start Quantrill against that lineup.
Shane McClanahan: Somehow still available in 40% of Yahoo/ESPN leagues. Do people hate winning? I thought Charlie Sheen’s past 10 years showed us how much people love winning. He’s got a 10.6 K/9 over the last two months with a 3.97 ERA while facing the Yankees, Boston, Baltimore, Toronto, the Trea Turner/Kyle Schwarber Nationals, and the Mariners (who thought I woulda said that as a threat). His swinging strike rate is 16% on the season, often surging into the 20% range for short bursts. All of this, and he’s a rookie. Assuming he doesn’t get shut down (and the Rays are in contention and lacking SP, so the chance is lower than other pitchers), he’ll finish as a top 30 (if not top 20) option for fantasy teams and is absolutely keeper-worthy for your 2022 teams. If I’m a dynasty manager, I move to acquire McClanahan now before Grey writes a winter sleeper article titled, “Rue the Day: Thank You for Being My Friend, McClanahan.” That’s a Golden Girls joke for you youngsters. I know for a fact that Grey spends a minimum of 16 hours a week watching Golden Girls, trying to find jokes for all the Shane McClanahan content he’s going to write next year. You might as well get ahead of the curve.
Luis Gil: A fill-in pitcher for the Yankees, making his second MLB start on Sunday. At 23 years old, he struggled mightily in AAA in 2021, earning a 5.64 ERA to a 5.89FIP. He’s got major strikeout potential but huge walk concerns (nearly 5 BB/9 across his last minor league stops). Of course, you love pitchers like Robbie Ray, right? The Yankees will also have a bevy of arms coming back soon from the IL (Corey Kluber, Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery). So, don’t get too excited about Gil spending time in the majors.
Dylan Bundy: He’s back! And struck out 6 while allowing no runs over 6 IP…against the Rangers though. His fastball velocity has absolutely dived this year, meaning he’s either fighting a lingering injury or there’s something much more problematic in his framework. If you happen to have him in a dynasty, now’s the time to unload after his recent success (because I assume you got nothing for him if you HODL’d through 2021). Everybody else: maintain 6′ of fantasy distance between you and Dylan Bundy at all times.
Andrew Heaney: Let’s be honest: regression is just a trend. Most pitchers will gravitate toward the norm over a long-enough time frame (which is why starters with IP volume are so much easier to predict). On the other hand, we have the Robbie Ray-esque volatility of Andrew Heaney. After becoming the first Yankees pitcher to allow 4 home runs in their Pinstripes debut in the entire dang history of the Bronx Bombers, Heaney went out and gave us this weird stat line: 6IP, 9K, 4H, 4ER, 3BB. So, 13.5 K/9 — that’s great! 1.17 WHIP — that’s OK! .182 batting average against — Awesome! 4.33 FIP — meh. 6.00 ERA — [chunders]. Heaney has a 25% line drive rate on the year, which means that batters are making square contact (when they’re not striking out). We can see that Heaney is trying to fix things — his fastball velocity is constant, but his usage has varied by a 25% margin since June. Meanwhile, his slider and changeup have also jumped around by a factor of 3 depending on the game situation. So, he’s not comfortable. But he’s also playing for his career — as a free agent this winter, he’ll need to show that he’s useful to teams, lest he end up on a prove-it contract like Robbie Ray did in 2020. To me, Heaney has that “2022 reconstruction project” label all over him, but for you — the fantasy manager — I’d continue to stack against Heaney until we see a change in the data.
Carlos Carrasco: Cookie’s back! Pitched 4 IP in each game so far, and 5-6 will probably be the limit for the Mets going forward. Carrasco is 34 years old and under contract for 1-2 more years, so the Mets will likely bring him back slowly and perhaps expand him for the playoffs. That means: skip him in DFS, be picky in standard fantasy leagues, and in K/9 leagues, let him roll.
Space:X Rankings
We’ve got a new leader! Our sincere thanks go to Gerrit Cole for his time atop the standings this year, and we wish him well with his current Covid battle. Now, make way for the Hero of Heterochromia, Max Scherzer! Scherzer edges out Corbin Burnes by virtue of Rudy’s ROS rankings. If it’s your first time here or your a weekly reader who just doesn’t like to read the 1500 words above the rankings, I calculate a confidence score in starting a pitcher if he starts. Should Shane Bieber start, yes, I’m freaking starting him over David Price. However! Is David Price starting right now while Bieber continues to do long toss (it’s looking increasingly like the Guardians are going to just keep him sidelined this year and save a million or two in arbitration). So, use Rudy’s tools (all those links at the top of the page) to help you understand who is healthy and who is pitching, and my tool will give you an additional layer of confidence based on a set of stats for your fantasy needs. Also, I eliminated the recent IP recency column; it was confusing and it’s already incorporated in Rudy’s rankings.
Let me know who your pitching targets for the fantasy playoffs are!
Week 24 Pitcher Data.xls
| Name | Confidence | IP | K-BB% | SIERA | CSW% | Rudy ROS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 3.95 | 158.2 | 29.20% | 2.8 | 32.50% | 38.9 |
| Max Scherzer | 5.8 | 154 | 29.80% | 2.8 | 32.00% | 27.9 |
| Corbin Burnes | 5.9 | 152 | 30.50% | 2.59 | 34.10% | 21 |
| Charlie Morton | 8.25 | 165 | 21.00% | 3.5 | 31.20% | 21.7 |
| Aaron Nola | 9.2 | 157.2 | 24.00% | 3.32 | 30.80% | 21.5 |
| Kevin Gausman | 9.75 | 170 | 22.40% | 3.46 | 30.90% | 18 |
| Yu Darvish | 11.05 | 146 | 23.80% | 3.38 | 30.50% | 21.9 |
| Robbie Ray | 11.45 | 170.1 | 25.90% | 3.14 | 30.00% | 18.3 |
| Joe Musgrove | 12.3 | 154.2 | 20.70% | 3.6 | 32.00% | 16.5 |
| Brandon Woodruff | 12.4 | 163.1 | 23.30% | 3.34 | 29.80% | 21.5 |
| Lucas Giolito | 15.9 | 158.1 | 20.80% | 3.7 | 30.10% | 21.2 |
| Julio Urias | 17 | 163.1 | 21.60% | 3.58 | 30.30% | 9.9 |
| Carlos Rodon | 17.6 | 124.2 | 28.50% | 2.89 | 30.20% | 16.3 |
| Walker Buehler | 18.1 | 186 | 19.50% | 3.75 | 29.30% | 19.2 |
| Zack Wheeler | 18.75 | 195.1 | 23.50% | 3.2 | 28.10% | 20.2 |
| Jose Berrios | 19.1 | 166.1 | 19.80% | 3.71 | 29.10% | 17.5 |
| Freddy Peralta | 20.1 | 125 | 23.00% | 3.51 | 30.70% | 9.7 |
| Sean Manaea | 21.45 | 156.2 | 20.90% | 3.61 | 29.10% | 10.6 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 21.55 | 163.2 | 20.80% | 3.63 | 29.90% | 7 |
| Frankie Montas | 21.7 | 163.2 | 19.70% | 3.75 | 29.30% | 11.3 |
| Logan Webb | 22.55 | 118.1 | 20.30% | 3.18 | 31.50% | 6.2 |
| Dylan Cease | 22.6 | 151.1 | 21.20% | 3.69 | 30.10% | 8.5 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 22.85 | 138.1 | 16.00% | 4.05 | 31.50% | 16.6 |
| Luis Garcia | 24.3 | 133 | 20.30% | 3.72 | 30.30% | 9.2 |
| Sonny Gray | 25.1 | 113.2 | 19.50% | 3.72 | 30.50% | 10.6 |
| Tyler Mahle | 25.7 | 159.1 | 19.70% | 3.78 | 29.70% | 7.3 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 26.75 | 106.1 | 25.60% | 3.08 | 32.40% | |
| German Marquez | 28.6 | 167 | 16.10% | 3.95 | 28.70% | 9.2 |
| Blake Snell | 29.05 | 128 | 18.40% | 4.01 | 29.30% | 15.9 |
| Jacob deGrom | 29.2 | 92 | 41.70% | 1.74 | 35.80% | -2.6 |
| Adam Wainwright | 29.95 | 184.1 | 16.30% | 3.99 | 30.30% | 3 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 30.65 | 115.1 | 20.10% | 3.71 | 28.70% | 9.2 |
| Shane McClanahan | 31.2 | 110.1 | 20.20% | 3.63 | 31.50% | |
| Trevor Rogers | 31.95 | 118.2 | 19.40% | 3.81 | 30.50% | 3.8 |
| Max Fried | 33.15 | 136.2 | 17.20% | 3.84 | 28.10% | 15.8 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 33.8 | 157.2 | 15.00% | 4.17 | 28.50% | 12.8 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 33.85 | 136.1 | 20.50% | 3.65 | 28.10% | 6.7 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 35.15 | 180.2 | 17.70% | 3.74 | 27.80% | 5.7 |
| Shane Bieber | 36.6 | 90.2 | 25.30% | 3.18 | 33.90% | -5.8 |
| Collin McHugh | 36.7 | 8.2 | 35.70% | 2.13 | 39.50% | |
| Andrew Heaney | 36.9 | 120 | 19.60% | 3.85 | 28.30% | 9.1 |
| Marcus Stroman | 38 | 163 | 15.70% | 3.95 | 28.50% | 2 |
| Luis Castillo | 38.3 | 170 | 14.30% | 4.07 | 27.40% | 15.1 |
| Chris Sale | 38.6 | 25 | 22.00% | 3.38 | 32.10% | |
| Framber Valdez | 38.6 | 116 | 11.90% | 3.81 | 28.50% | 9.6 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 38.7 | 146 | 15.00% | 4.17 | 29.00% | 5.7 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 38.75 | 138.1 | 15.70% | 4.18 | 28.60% | 8.1 |
| Alex Cobb | 39.2 | 77.2 | 17.70% | 3.66 | 30.50% | |
| Huascar Ynoa | 39.6 | 71.2 | 20.70% | 3.57 | 31.10% | -3.8 |
| Chris Bassitt | 40.65 | 151 | 19.50% | 3.77 | 28.20% | |
| Patrick Sandoval | 42.45 | 79.2 | 16.70% | 3.97 | 31.00% | |
| Alex Wood | 44.4 | 125.2 | 18.00% | 3.76 | 32.00% | -9.2 |
| Lance Lynn | 44.45 | 135.2 | 19.70% | 3.8 | 25.80% | 18.4 |
| JT Brubaker | 45.2 | 124.1 | 16.90% | 4.04 | 28.60% | |
| Brady Singer | 45.4 | 120.2 | 13.20% | 4.35 | 30.40% | 1.5 |
| Rich Hill | 45.65 | 136 | 14.60% | 4.38 | 30.60% | -1.7 |
| Austin Gomber | 45.65 | 115.1 | 14.80% | 4.29 | 30.40% | |
| Tarik Skubal | 46.05 | 130.1 | 19.30% | 3.84 | 27.50% | 2.9 |
| Alek Manoah | 46.15 | 85 | 17.10% | 4.08 | 27.80% | 11.2 |
| Jakob Junis | 46.2 | 27.1 | 20.40% | 3.68 | 30.20% | |
| Domingo German | 48 | 91 | 16.60% | 4.14 | 29.70% | |
| Chris Paddack | 48.1 | 106.1 | 16.30% | 4.11 | 27.20% | 11.3 |
| Adbert Alzolay | 48.1 | 106.1 | 16.90% | 4.02 | 28.70% | -2.6 |
| John Means | 48.25 | 126.1 | 18.10% | 4.14 | 27.50% | 6.2 |
| Steven Matz | 48.8 | 129 | 15.40% | 4.13 | 27.80% | 3.7 |
| Mike Minor | 48.95 | 158.2 | 16.10% | 4.2 | 26.80% | 7.4 |
| Jose Urquidy | 49.15 | 84.2 | 16.70% | 4.29 | 28.30% | 7.6 |
| Corey Kluber | 49.4 | 65 | 15.20% | 4.3 | 29.50% | 6.3 |
| Zac Gallen | 49.7 | 98 | 17.20% | 4.05 | 27.60% | 6.3 |
| Bailey Ober | 50.35 | 78.2 | 19.80% | 3.85 | 28.30% | -0.2 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 50.4 | 146 | 16.40% | 4.09 | 27.20% | 2.5 |
| Taijuan Walker | 50.55 | 140 | 14.10% | 4.41 | 28.70% | -0.8 |
| Dane Dunning | 50.9 | 104.1 | 13.80% | 4.11 | 28.60% | 0 |
| Tylor Megill | 51.55 | 77.2 | 21.10% | 3.63 | 27.70% | -2.2 |
| Triston McKenzie | 51.65 | 99.2 | 17.40% | 4.17 | 27.90% | 3.9 |
| Logan Gilbert | 51.95 | 95.1 | 20.80% | 3.73 | 26.70% | 4.7 |
| Michael Pineda | 52.15 | 90 | 15.70% | 4.23 | 28.70% | 0.2 |
| Jon Gray | 52.2 | 131.1 | 14.00% | 4.31 | 28.20% | 1 |
| Zack Greinke | 55.15 | 159.2 | 12.10% | 4.56 | 26.60% | 12.5 |
| Cristian Javier | 55.25 | 48.2 | 19.10% | 3.99 | 27.40% | 6.7 |
| James Kaprielian | 56.25 | 101.2 | 15.00% | 4.4 | 28.70% | -2.2 |
| Danny Duffy | 57.45 | 60 | 16.90% | 4.18 | 28.40% | |
| Jameson Taillon | 58 | 138.2 | 16.20% | 4.3 | 27.10% | |
| Joe Ross | 58.75 | 103 | 16.90% | 4.05 | 30.40% | -12.2 |
| Jack Flaherty | 59.3 | 76 | 18.40% | 3.92 | 28.10% | -4.9 |
| Pablo Lopez | 60.3 | 101 | 21.00% | 3.51 | 27.70% | -10.1 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 61.05 | 33.2 | 17.80% | 3.93 | 25.90% | 14.9 |
| Sam Long | 61.15 | 22.1 | 16.80% | 4.14 | 28.40% | |
| David Price | 61.25 | 41.1 | 13.40% | 4.25 | 28.40% | 1.1 |
| Patrick Corbin | 61.6 | 148 | 10.80% | 4.63 | 26.30% | 11 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 62.2 | 166.2 | 11.40% | 4.68 | 27.30% | 0.4 |
| Ian Anderson | 62.35 | 109.2 | 12.90% | 4.39 | 27.10% | 4.2 |
| Nick Pivetta | 62.65 | 135 | 15.30% | 4.33 | 26.80% | -0.6 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 62.75 | 129.1 | 13.90% | 4.56 | 28.00% | -2.7 |
| Zach Eflin | 63.9 | 105.2 | 18.80% | 3.81 | 28.30% | -13.1 |
| Kyle Gibson | 65.3 | 155.2 | 10.30% | 4.58 | 27.00% | 0.7 |
| Michael Wacha | 65.55 | 91.1 | 17.40% | 4.02 | 25.80% | 0.8 |
| Matthew Boyd | 65.6 | 78.2 | 13.10% | 4.56 | 27.30% | 6.3 |
| Drew Smyly | 65.75 | 115.2 | 14.20% | 4.41 | 27.60% | -4.2 |
| David Peterson | 66.3 | 66.2 | 13.90% | 4.27 | 27.40% | |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 66.9 | 111 | 13.60% | 4.57 | 28.20% | -4.4 |
| Tyler Anderson | 66.95 | 148 | 14.20% | 4.5 | 27.00% | -4.2 |
| Ross Stripling | 68.25 | 86.1 | 15.80% | 4.32 | 26.40% | 2.2 |
| Aaron Civale | 69.6 | 102.1 | 14.40% | 4.28 | 25.60% | 3.5 |
| Zach Plesac | 70.9 | 125.1 | 11.30% | 4.69 | 26.30% | 4 |
| Jose Quintana | 71.3 | 35 | 14.10% | 4.52 | 27.10% | 6.6 |
| Luke Weaver | 72.35 | 51 | 14.40% | 4.36 | 27.60% | -3.9 |
| Casey Mize | 73.05 | 140.1 | 11.90% | 4.5 | 26.90% | -5.8 |
| Spencer Howard | 73.15 | 31.2 | 10.90% | 4.83 | 28.80% | |
| Paolo Espino | 74 | 67.1 | 15.20% | 4.36 | 28.00% | -7.3 |
| Touki Toussaint | 74.8 | 45 | 13.00% | 4.44 | 28.50% | -6.7 |
| Bruce Zimmermann | 75.05 | 54 | 11.60% | 4.67 | 27.60% | |
| Martin Perez | 76.75 | 100 | 11.70% | 4.62 | 26.50% | |
| Kyle Freeland | 77.45 | 102 | 13.30% | 4.44 | 26.70% | -5.5 |
| Griffin Canning | 77.6 | 60.1 | 11.90% | 4.72 | 26.90% | 1.8 |
| Wade Miley | 77.9 | 155.2 | 11.60% | 4.44 | 25.40% | -4.3 |
| Merrill Kelly | 79.35 | 142.1 | 14.30% | 4.32 | 26.70% | -13.2 |
| Tucker Davidson | 79.75 | 20 | 12.00% | 4.64 | 27.40% | |
| Kwang-hyun Kim | 79.75 | 96.2 | 10.00% | 4.8 | 26.60% | |
| Jorge Lopez | 80.15 | 113.1 | 9.20% | 4.8 | 26.20% | |
| Trevor Cahill | 80.25 | 35.2 | 11.30% | 4.3 | 26.20% | |
| Dallas Keuchel | 81.3 | 140.1 | 5.50% | 4.91 | 25.80% | 0.6 |
| Cody Poteet | 81.35 | 30.2 | 12.10% | 4.78 | 27.30% | |
| Anthony Kay | 81.65 | 20.1 | 16.50% | 4.05 | 25.00% | |
| Trevor Williams | 81.75 | 68.2 | 13.80% | 4.34 | 26.60% | -6.1 |
| Marco Gonzales | 81.8 | 118.1 | 11.00% | 4.96 | 25.80% | 1 |
| Johnny Cueto | 81.9 | 112.1 | 13.80% | 4.45 | 24.40% | |
| Nestor Cortes | 82.05 | 53.2 | 16.20% | 4.48 | 25.60% | |
| Jose Suarez | 82.7 | 55.1 | 11.70% | 4.51 | 27.80% | -8.4 |
| Josiah Gray | 83.35 | 44 | 11.70% | 4.9 | 27.70% | -4.2 |
| Eric Lauer | 83.4 | 84.1 | 13.60% | 4.48 | 25.20% | -0.7 |
| Alec Mills | 83.7 | 81.2 | 12.50% | 4.26 | 26.30% | -8 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 83.8 | 90.2 | 13.30% | 4.59 | 23.60% | 7 |
| Eli Morgan | 84.05 | 71.2 | 15.70% | 4.52 | 26.60% | -6.5 |
| Brad Keller | 84.05 | 133.2 | 9.10% | 4.84 | 25.40% | |
| Cal Quantrill | 84.3 | 101.2 | 12.90% | 4.48 | 24.90% | -2.3 |
| Kyle Muller | 84.8 | 35.2 | 10.80% | 4.91 | 28.50% | -6.5 |
| Chris Flexen | 85.3 | 156.2 | 11.30% | 4.7 | 23.70% | -1.1 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | 86.6 | 130 | 10.50% | 4.94 | 25.10% | |
| Kris Bubic | 87.1 | 78.1 | 10.00% | 4.81 | 26.60% | -4.1 |
| Erick Fedde | 87.35 | 117 | 13.10% | 4.37 | 24.60% | -5.9 |
| Brett Anderson | 88.35 | 88.1 | 8.00% | 4.35 | 24.00% | |
| Antonio Senzatela | 88.4 | 138 | 10.90% | 4.42 | 24.90% | -7.7 |
| Caleb Smith | 88.7 | 57 | 9.50% | 5.23 | 26.90% | |
| Chad Kuhl | 89.4 | 67 | 8.00% | 5.1 | 27.70% | -6.2 |
| Vladimir Gutierrez | 89.55 | 104.1 | 9.90% | 4.91 | 26.80% | -7.1 |
| Jordan Lyles | 89.6 | 142.2 | 11.40% | 4.8 | 25.90% | -10 |
| Kolby Allard | 90.15 | 91.2 | 12.40% | 4.7 | 25.60% | -5.6 |
| Cole Irvin | 90.45 | 158.1 | 11.10% | 4.83 | 24.70% | -5.9 |
| Vince Velasquez | 91.95 | 76.1 | 10.70% | 4.9 | 26.20% | -4.5 |
| Tony Gonsolin | 92 | 35.2 | 10.10% | 5.07 | 27.00% | -3.9 |
| Ranger Suarez | 92.2 | 37.2 | 13.00% | 4.2 | 24.60% | -4.8 |
| Matt Peacock | 93.85 | 34 | 7.70% | 4.58 | 27.20% | -8.6 |
| Mitch Keller | 94.3 | 83 | 11.10% | 4.74 | 24.60% | -3.3 |
| Michael King | 95.3 | 24.2 | 7.00% | 5.18 | 27.50% | -5.4 |
| Zach Thompson | 96.25 | 62.2 | 11.70% | 4.68 | 26.70% | -11.8 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 96.35 | 21.2 | 7.40% | 5.32 | 28.70% | -10.2 |
| Chase De Jong | 97 | 43.2 | 10.20% | 5.06 | 25.50% | |
| J.A. Happ | 97.1 | 132.2 | 10.30% | 5.01 | 22.60% | -2.4 |
| Tony Santillan | 97.9 | 16.2 | 12.20% | 4.75 | 25.80% | -5 |
| Justin Dunn | 98.25 | 50.1 | 9.20% | 5.18 | 25.40% | |
| Luis Patino | 98.45 | 55 | 12.30% | 4.79 | 25.50% | -6 |
| Garrett Richards | 98.5 | 110.1 | 7.70% | 5.03 | 24.70% | -4.4 |
| Jake Arrieta | 98.65 | 94.2 | 8.80% | 4.94 | 25.60% | -6.8 |
| Adrian Houser | 100 | 120.1 | 6.90% | 4.8 | 23.30% | -4.9 |
| Zach Davies | 100.1 | 141.2 | 6.20% | 5.32 | 26.00% | -10.5 |
| Taylor Widener | 100.9 | 61 | 11.70% | 4.81 | 26.30% | -11.6 |
| Josh Fleming | 101.35 | 56.1 | 7.60% | 4.69 | 24.00% | -3 |
| Matt Shoemaker | 101.55 | 50.2 | 5.60% | 5.36 | 25.70% | -1.3 |
| Luis Gil | 101.95 | 19 | 12.20% | 4.96 | 27.20% | -11.3 |
| Matt Harvey | 102.2 | 127.2 | 10.00% | 4.85 | 24.10% | -8.6 |
| Kohl Stewart | 103.45 | 12.2 | 8.60% | 4.8 | 24.10% | |
| Wil Crowe | 103.5 | 100.1 | 9.90% | 4.9 | 25.10% | -9.8 |
| Chi Chi Gonzalez | 104.9 | 87 | 6.50% | 5.31 | 23.50% | |
| Daniel Lynch | 105.05 | 57 | 8.50% | 5.09 | 25.70% | -7.8 |
| JC Mejia | 105.2 | 42.1 | 6.90% | 5.15 | 24.10% | |
| Griffin Jax | 105.5 | 51.2 | 9.30% | 5.18 | 26.90% | -12.6 |
| Ryan Weathers | 106.5 | 66.1 | 8.70% | 4.99 | 25.40% | -8.3 |
| Deivi Garcia | 106.9 | 8.1 | 7.90% | 5.65 | 28.10% | -12.4 |
| Keegan Akin | 107.45 | 67.2 | 8.00% | 5.26 | 25.90% | -9.9 |
| Aaron Sanchez | 108.4 | 30.1 | 9.80% | 4.56 | 25.40% | -11.8 |
| Jeff Hoffman | 108.6 | 45 | 4.30% | 5.7 | 25.60% | -4.3 |
| Hyeon-jong Yang | 109.15 | 15 | 7.50% | 5.2 | 24.10% | |
| Justus Sheffield | 110.55 | 73.2 | 6.90% | 5.16 | 25.30% | -9.8 |
| John Gant | 111.05 | 82 | 3.60% | 5.65 | 25.70% | -9.6 |
| Lewis Thorpe | 111.85 | 14.1 | -3.20% | 6.28 | 24.90% | |
| Carlos Martinez | 112.35 | 82.1 | 5.80% | 5.18 | 25.70% | -15 |
| Jon Lester | 112.5 | 119.1 | 4.50% | 5.47 | 23.70% | -7.9 |
| Matt Moore | 113.7 | 56.1 | 6.80% | 5.36 | 25.00% | -7.5 |
| Dean Kremer | 113.75 | 53.2 | 9.00% | 5.22 | 23.60% | -5.6 |
| Kohei Arihara | 114.65 | 36.2 | 6.40% | 5.35 | 25.40% | -7.9 |
| Johan Oviedo | 115.75 | 57.2 | 4.40% | 5.49 | 26.20% | -14 |
| Bryse Wilson | 117.05 | 64.2 | 8.20% | 5.18 | 24.60% | -12.1 |
| Edward Cabrera | 117.55 | 12.2 | -3.70% | 6.34 | 24.00% | -1.3 |
| Jake Woodford | 118.4 | 17.2 | 11.10% | 4.74 | 24.20% | -13.5 |
| Chase Anderson | 119.2 | 36.1 | 6.00% | 5.48 | 25.90% | -14.7 |
| Wily Peralta | 120.1 | 68.2 | 5.80% | 5.11 | 24.20% | -14 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 120.3 | 49.1 | 7.70% | 5.21 | 23.30% | -8.4 |
| Matt Manning | 120.7 | 66 | 6.00% | 5.34 | 24.30% | -11.1 |
| Sam Hentges | 121.05 | 41 | 4.50% | 5.59 | 24.90% | -9.9 |
| Logan Allen | 121.85 | 40.2 | 6.70% | 5.22 | 23.90% | -9.8 |
| Randy Dobnak | 123.1 | 34.1 | 3.30% | 4.81 | 20.90% | -10.6 |
| Riley Smith | 123.1 | 25 | 1.70% | 5.9 | 24.10% | -7 |
| Jose Urena | 123.15 | 83 | 4.50% | 5.23 | 23.50% | -13.3 |
| Tyler Gilbert | 125.2 | 31 | 6.50% | 5.37 | 23.60% | -9.2 |
| Jon Duplantier | 125.75 | 13 | 5.70% | 5.3 | 24.40% | -10.9 |
| Thomas Eshelman | 127 | 18.1 | -2.30% | 6.87 | 25.60% | -19.6 |
| Spenser Watkins | 129.9 | 46 | 7.00% | 5.33 | 22.80% | -15 |
| Daniel Castano | 131.95 | 17.1 | 3.80% | 5.63 | 22.10% | -10.2 |
| Seth Frankoff | 136.55 | 13.2 | 2.90% | 5.69 | 19.80% | -13.3 |
| Joe Ryan |
Yo Blair! Can we get Rudy to adjust his ROS rankings for deGrom, or am I missing something?
Haha, yeah, i’ll bring it up to him in chat and see what he has to say. My initial suspicion is due to the Mets being unclear about his injury; originally, we was supposed to miss one start, and here we are weeks later.
FWIW, I talked to Rudy and he agrees that the projection was a bit too aggressive. His injury algorithm was accounting for less IL time than recent reports have…reported. Hope that helps!
Hi Blair,
Have I drunk the cool aid since I’m leaning to starting Cal Quantrill against Oakland? Thoughts?
I was also leaning to picking up Tanner Houck? Is that a waste?
What are thoughts on picking up Domingo German? Would you take a flier?
You are great at predicting when to play pitchers and when to not make moves.
Thanks,
Hi Blair,
Have I drunk the cool aid since I’m leaning to starting Cal Quantrill against Oakland? Thoughts?
I was also leaning to picking up Tanner Houck? Is that a waste?
What are thoughts on picking up Domingo German? Would you take a flier?
You are great at predicting when to play pitchers and when to not make moves.
Thanks,
I think players like Houck and German are fine to pickup right now; it’s all in your level of risk tolerance. If you’re going to be taking risks like Cal Quantrill against Oakland, it’s fine to get risky on other players too lol. Think of it like you’re going out to the softball field and you announce, “today, I’m batting with my opposite hand.” Is it possible to hit a home run? Absolutely. Are you more likely to hit a home run hitting with your usual hand? Yup. But if you’re OK with that risk tolerance — like, you’re in the middle of the pack in your league and need to make up ground — then you throw everything you have at the wall and see what sticks. Hope that helps!
Luis Urias, Edward Olivares, Chas McCormick, or Jorge Mateo ROS?
I’ve got Chas and Urias basically tied on my personal board, which looks just at stats and not playing time. Hope that helps!
Blair – I’ve read your stuff all year, and I really appreciate the thoughtfulness of your process, your emphasis on confidence and risk as the season goes on, your experimentation, and your enthusiasm for the commenters and questions. Thanks for putting how you think out there for us to read. I hope you have as much fun crafting these posts as I have reading them.
Also, random shout out to the Bassit Hound! That guy’s been money all year!
Thanks so much for the support! It’s definitely fun doing it, and I’m low key enjoying the massive amount of spreadsheet work I do in the background. Learning something new every day!
Bassitt is money — he’s gonna make a lot of people happy come the end of the season!
Asked Grey earlier, but interested in your take.
Ryu and Snell are so frustrating. One outing is phenomenal, the other the opposite (whatever that may be). I had them both go yesterday, and wasn’t sure how I felt when it was over.
Next week, Snell is @AZ (SON $8.) and Ryu is @SEA ($13.3). Which do you prefer?
Start one, neither or both in a 12-team 5×5 league?
Ryu’s better across the board this year. Sure, Snell’s got the potential for a bigger game, but he’s also demonstrated that he’s had a worse year on the whole in 2021. A classic high stakes move is to fade the recent hot streak, especially with pitchers. In Snell’s recent performances, he’s been far worse than his big K performance, so I go with Ryu.
Not encouraged by Heaney’s 9 Ks vs Seattle Saturday?
I’m encouraged and stats are encouraged, but I can’t fight fate anymore lol. Regression happens, but it’s just a matter of time. For Robbie Ray, it took an extra season. We might be looking at Heaney 2022 resurgence.
“regression to the norm” is the second dumbest basis for fantasy baseball advice, right behind using BABIP without looking at hard hit rates.
Cool, always glad to hear a differing opinion.
What statistic(s) would you recommend looking at for smarter fantasy baseball advice?
Where do you put F. Peralta next season? Considering him as an auction keeper ($10) in a QS league, but he’s also been inquired about as our trade deadline approaches for the season for players like Mullins, JRod, Mookie, etc.
Personally, I would contend that Peralta could be a top 10 SP next year, and at $10, that’s a steal. His numbers are phenomenal but we’re seeing his IP reigned in (which is wise) because he’s never been in a campaign this long.
If we see healthy Mookie, of course I trade for that because elite hitters are better than any elite pitcher (and assuming Mookie isn’t wildly overpriced). But otherwise, I keep Peralta there. Hope that helps!
Appreciate the thoughtful response. Generally feel the same way, so good to have that reassurance.
Follow up question – In comparison, where do you see Manoah next season? I have him at a similar price ($10) but could flip him for someone like Lance Lynn ($34 next season) down the stretch. Wondering if he’s going to be impacted by innings limits too.
For Manoah, he’s got a really impressive K-BB% for a rookie, and that’s what matters. He’s in the top quartile of K-BB% pitchers, which is what you want for that kind of pitcher. I’d prefer Manoah — especially now that TOR seems like they’ll be back in the Rodgers center instead of a AAA field — but if you’re worried about stability in a rotation, then I could justify a Lance signing.
Good stuff Blair. If you’ve been stashing Sale all year, are you trying to sell him now to lock in most of his upside with a less risky player? Or just holding and seeing what happens? For instance would you rather have him or somebody like Lynn, Darvish, Ray, Rodon, that sort of mid-level-ace tier?
Hey Lindorphins!
I’d rather have the aces you listed because they’re not likely IP limited, but I doubt you’ll find somebody to trade you one of them for Sale before he gets a couple notches under his belt. If you can, by all means grab somebody like Lynn or Darvish who have a long track record. HOpe that helps!
Gotcha, was leaning that way too. I’ll see if anybody bites. Thanks!