Is there anything better than baseball on a rainy Saturday afternoon? You can’t do any yard work, you know, because it’s pouring, so you settle into your favorite chair, crack a beer, and you’re whisked away to a place much warmer, and much sunnier. Here I sit, beer in hand, ready to watch this week’s test subject Royals righty Nate Karns vs the first place Baltimore Orioles. The journeymen starter is on his 4th organization in five seasons, and there’s two ways to look at this. Either Karns can’t keep a job, or he’s highly “in-demand” by multiple teams throughout the league. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, never good enough to lock-down a rotation spot, but also good enough to find opportunity year after year. So far Karns has been a good fit in Kansas City, making his 7th start today vs. a surprisingly mediocre Orioles offense, one that ranks in the bottom half of MLB in nearly every offensive category. So the home matchup vs. Baltimore is a good one, even if it’s a first place club he’s facing…. Here’s what I saw on Saturday.
Scouting Report: Unlike previous years Karns finds himself cemented into the middle of the Kansas City rotation. Across Karn’s first 6 starts the results have been solid, a 2-2 record, an 8.8 K/9, a 2.6 Bb/9, and a 3.63 ERA as a starter. His 4.58 ERA entering today’s game, was inflated by a 4 run relief performance in 2/3rds of an inning back on April 5th at Minnesota. A deeper look at the numbers shows that Karns has been very good. In fact, there’s been some really encouraging signs in Karns underlying peripherals, despite no real change in arsenal or approach. So far on the year Karn’s swinging strike rate is up to 12.5%, a 1.5% jump year over year, while his groundball rate has spiked by 15%, from 40.3% a year ago to an elite 56.8% in 2017. His arsenal is comprised of a mid-90’s four-seam fastball, a low-90’s sinker, a hard, mid-low 80’s curveball thrown with a knuckle curve grip, and a mid 80’s changup with a little break. The curve is far and away his best offering, and the results show this, with the break being more of the 1 to 7 variety, than the 12 to 6 it’s reported as. It works in on lefties, and away and off the plate on righties, generating whiffs over 25% of the time. Karns pitch usage has by and large remained the same in his three major league seasons. He throws fastballs about 50% of the time, with the vast majority being his four-seamer up and on the outside part of the plate. He uses the cheese to setup his hard-breaking curveball low and also on the outside part of the plate. His change up is used sparingly, about 12-15% of the time, and is thrown mostly in two strike counts, low and outside to both lefties, and righties. Though he will work middle in, and bury it under the hands of right-hand batters. The spike in swinging strikes and groundballs this season, seems to be generated from an uptick in usage of the curve, and change low and outside the zone.
- I’m trying a different approach this week, listing each batter, with a full detail of each pitch, and outcome.
Nate Karns vs Baltimore Orioles @ Kauffman Stadium Kansas City, Mo May 13th, 2017
First Inning
Seth Smith – Fastball low and inside, strike 1, fastball at 93 middle in, smith pops up to Lorenzo Cain.
Adam Jones – Curveball middle in, strike 1, Karns goes right back to the pitch, and buries the curve at the bottom of the zone, strike 2, Karns sits down Jones, as the curve is buried inside again to Jones for a swinging strike three, strikeout on 3 pitches. The bottom just drops out on this pitch.
Manny Machado – On the first pitch,a 93 MPH Fastball down the pike, Machado hits it right back up the middle for a single. Man on first, and here comes former MLB home run champ Chris Davis.
Chris Davis – Starts davis off with a fastball 93 low and outside, ball 1, a changeup low and inside for strike 1, curveball drops out of the zone, ball 2, fastball inside is fouled off, strike 2, high fastball at 95, fouled straight back, strike 2, count is even at 2 a piece, Karns goes back to the hook, as he buries the curveball in the dirt for ball 3, full count, a changeup to the outside is fouled off, then a 93 mph fastball is fouled off, before rings him up on a deadly curveball to the inside part of the plate.
Strong first inning for Karns, as he strikesout two, making only one mistake to Machado, as he grooved a 93 MPH sinker.
Second inning
Mark Trumbo – Karns starts off the 2nd frame with a fastball high and inside at 93, strike 1, right back to the fastball, high and inside, the pitch is slapped foul down the 3rd baseline, strike 2, a fastball high and outside is taken, ball 1, Karns then buries a curveball at 86 low and outside with hard 1 to 7 break getting a swinging strike three.
Jonathan Schoop – High fastball at 94, ball 1, change to the outside at 83, ball 2, fastball high and inside, ball 3, Karns finds himself behind in the count for the first time today. He goes at Schoop with a four-seam fastball at 93 down the pike, strike one, fastball high and inside for a swinging strike 2. With a full count, the righty buries the curve at 83 to the outside, and Karns gets another swinging strike for his 4th strikeout.
Trey Mancini – Curveball to the outside part of the plate, strike 1 looking, changeup at 88 low and outside, ball 1, curveball down the middle, as the bottom drops out for a swinging strike two, and a change at 85 and off the plate, freezes Mancini as he watches strike 3.
Nasty inning for Karns as he strikesout the side in the second. The curveball is a serious weapon.
Third inning
J.J. Hardy – 92 MPH sinker on the bottom of the zone for strike 1, a curveball at 85 almost in the same spot as Hardy watches it go by for strike 2, Karns goes back to the curve again, this time at the bottom of the zone, and gets another swinging strike three. That’s six strikeouts, and five swinging strikes on the curve in just 2 1/3rd.
Francisco Pena – Karns starts out the number 9 hitter with a high fastball at 94 MPH, that the former Royal slaps back for a foul, strike 1, next a curveball that’s just off the plate, that Pena watches for ball 1, a curveball at 84 on the outside for strike 2, a changeup middle-middle is slapped down the third baseline foul, 1-2 count, curveball in the dirt way off the plate, ball two, and the first real mistake of the day for Karns as he hangs a curveball high in the zone and the Pena punishes it to leftfield for a homer, tied game.
Seth Smith – A fastball outside for ball 1, high fastball top of the zone, ball 2, fastball outside, that’s slapped the other way, strike 1, curveball buried low under the hands for a swinging strike 2, changeup at 87 to the outside part of the zone for ball 3, full count, curveball low and outside taken for ball four, Smith takes the first walk.
Adam Jones – Starts Jones off with a curveball at 84 middle in, that Jones takes for strike 1, fastball on the outside part of the plate at 93, slapped foul down the first base line, strike 2, curveball buried, at 84, that Jones beats into the ground, count 0-2 to Jones, high fastball at 92 down the middle, and Jones takes the pitch for strike three, 7 strikeouts through 2 2/3rds.
Manny Machado – 94 MPH fastball to the outside, ball 1, hanging curve middle in, Manny pulls it down the line foul, strike 1, fastball high and inside, taken for ball 2, fastball middle on the the outside part of the plate is popped up to right field for the final out of the inning.
By far Karns worst inning, but really outside of the hanging curve on the homer to Pena, he didn’t make too many mistakes.
Fourth Inning
Chris Davis – Lines Karns first offering, a 92 MPH middle-middle four-seamer, to second that the second baseman Escobar makes a stab on, and tosses to Hosmer for the first out of the fourth.
Mark Trumbo – Fastball low and outside taken for ball 1, curveball on the outside at 84 is hacked at badly for a swinging strike 1, 93 MPH down the middle taken for strike 2, curveball at 83 misses to the inside, ball 2, Karns comes right back and buries a curveball in the dirt and off the plate, Trumbo tries to hold up, but he broke the zone on the check, and is rung up for strike three. 8 strikeouts for Karns though 3 2/3rds.
Jonathan Schoop – Curveball on the inside taken for strike 1, fastball high and outside, ball 1, fastball high and on the outside part of the plate taken for strike 2, another fastball this one low and outside for ball 2, Karns drops the hammer on Schoop, and draws a swinging strike three on a 84 MPH curve down Main Street. 9 strikeouts and now 9 swinging strikes on the curve.
Three up and three down for Karns in the fourth, up to this point only three pitches have been well struck, Machado’s first inning single, Pena’s homer, and Davis’ hard line out to start the fourth.
Fifth Inning
Trey Mancini – Curveball bounces on the outside part of the zone and to the backstop, got away from Karns there for ball 1, curveball drops out of the zone and is taken for ball 2, 2-0 count, a fastball high and on the outside part of the plate is taken for strike 1, curveball low and in, and another swinging strike on the hook to even the count at 2-2, another curveball buried in the dirt way outside again for ball 3, full count, Karns runs a fastball on the outside part of the plate belt high, and Mancini watches strike three. Mancini has now watched two balls for strike three. 10 K’s for Karns through 4 1/3rd.
J.J. Hardy – Fastball high for ball one, fastball again, high and inside is slapped down the third base line foul, strike 1, curveball on the outside part of the plate at 84, and Hardy can’t hold up, strike 2, Karns goes back to his bread and butter, 84 MPH curveball that drops out of the zone for his 11th punchout, and 12th swinging strike on the pitch.
Francisco Pena – Karns throws a high fastball and Pena once again makes him pay killing the ball into the left field concourse. Damn Karns can’t get Pena out.
Seth Smith – Starts Smith off with a 94 MPH fastball to the outside, strike 1, changeup low and outside, taken for ball 1, Curve middle in, slapped down the first baseline for a foul, strike 2, 94 MPH fastball low and inside, ball 2, curveball at 86 to the outside part of the plate is cued off the end of the bat in play to shortstop, and Smith beats the throw for an infield single.
Adam Jones – Karns hangs a curve at 84 down the middle of the plate and Jones misses for strike 1, another curve, low and inside drops in for ball 1, third straight curveball to Jones on the outside part of the plate at 85 is whacked foul down the third baseline, strike 2, a fourth consecutive 84 MPH curve is slapped foul again, still 1-2, and yet another curveball, this at 85, is swung and foul tipped, Jones just got a piece of that one. A high fastball on the outside at 94, is fouled off again, still 1-2, 92 MPH fastball in the dirt way outside, ball 2, Karns then tosses a 93 MPH fastball off the plate, and Jones goes the other way for a line drive single.
Manny Machado – Curveball at 83 off the plate, that Manny swings through, strike 1, 82 MPH curveball off the plate slapped the other way foul, strike 2, he drops the hammer again! 84 off the plate and in the dirt as Manny Machado flails at the pitch for Karns 12th strikeout. 15 swinging strikes on the curveball today.
Final Line: 5 IP, 91 pitches, 61 strikes, 16 swinging strikes, 2 earned runs, 2 home runs, 12 K’s, 1 walk, 5 hits
Game Summary: That’s it for Karns as Seth Maness comes out for the top of the 6th. 91 pitches for Karns, 62 for strikes, including 16 swinging strikes, 15 of which came on Karns’ curve. I came away impressed, as Karns knows how to setup hitters for the strikeout, using his elite hard curve to generate swings and misses, mixing in the change to keep batters honest on the hook. The spike in SwStr, ground balls, and his K/9 is all generated off of his plus curve. One change in Karns’ approach this season has been the ability to bury the pitch off the plate, and to the first base side. An effective plan of attack to both right-handed, and left-handed hitters.
Updated Top 100 SP
(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto)
Coming Up: Josh Hader, MIL, Jacob Faria, TB, Brandon Woodruff, MIL, Jose De Leon, TB, Erick Fedde, WAS, Sean Newcomb, ATL, Dinelson Lamet, SD.
Dropped off: Jameson Taillon, PIT, Blake Snell, TB, Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA, Jharel Cotton, OAK, Ariel Miranda, SEA
- A couple of demotions knocked both Blake Snell and Jharel Cotton off the list this week. Hopefully each can find the strikeout upside that made them intriguing prospects entering 2016. It’s been an especially tough go for Snell who’s struggled to find the plate, best illustrated by his 5.36 BB/9.
- There are exactly 11 pitchers with a 50%+ groundball rate, and 10%+ SwStr rate they are as follows, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Trevor Cahill, Andrew Triggs, Nate Karns, Jon Lester, Carlos Martinez, Michael Pineda, Charlie Morton, Gerrit Cole, and Luis Severino.
- Lots of talk of Alex Wood, and it’s easy to see why, he’s been phenominal. Keep in mind these are rest of season rankings, and there’s still some question to whether or not Wood stays in the rotation for the rest of the year. Though if he keeps this up, he will.
- What’s with the Indians? Starters Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer, each have K/9’s in the double digits, but ERA’s over 5. In fact they’re the only pitchers with K/9 totals over 10 per, with ERA’s over 4.50.
- It’s not a surprise that Dylan Bundy came out this week and silenced his critics somewhat, striking out 8 against Kansas City. I mentioned this a few times last week in the comments, but 3 of his first 7 starts were against a Red Sox team that just doesn’t strikeout. BTW there’s numbers that back this up, not a Boston Bias thing.
Follow me on Twitter @Ralphlifshitzbb, and check out my weekly Live Baseball Show on Fantrax YouTube channel Tuesday’s at 9 PM EST
This ranking of Alex Wood seems unconscionably low. Wood now ranks first in all of baseball in xFIP (minimum 35 innings) and his velocity is up a couple ticks from previous. I realize the sample size is still small, but I’d almost have to move him into the top 40 based upon what we’ve witnessed.
@Sun Tzu: Agreed on Wood, he’s been spectacular. Assuming this rank has more to do with the Dodgers roulette wheel of a rotation, with Ryu & McCarthy seeming to create a 6-man.
What I see confusing here is how highly ranked A.Sanchez is just coming off his weird blister/fingernail issues, and with not so great numbers before the issues even started.
@Fogimon: Yeah you have to think he wasn’t ranked a week ago because there was confusion about whether he was sticking in the rotation or not. So he was added this week, I think entering the list at 60 when you weren’t ranked and there’s some role and injury questions attached to your rest of season outlook it’s not to bad. I agree that it’s a conservative ranking, and he could be a major mover in the next couple.
I like Sanchez, we’re talking about a kid at 24 year’s old that 15-3 with a 3.00 ERA dating back to last April. I don’t have any reason to not view him as a top 50 starter from here on out.
@Ralph Lifshitz: ROS you like Sanchez over Nola?
@Fogimon: Until Nola comes back and look himself again yes. I don’t think they’re that far apart taking an objective view of ROS value. I’d probably move Nola up to 45 or so if he comes back and is looking like a high 3’s ERA guy with a 9ish K per. I mean Sanchez has better numbers all-time and is a year older. Lots of injury risk with Nola.
Notice I bumped up Manaea quite a bit now that he’s returning. I dropped Nola a week ago after the re-injury.
@Sun Tzu: You guarantee me a rotation spot, and I’ll have him in the top 40.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Guarantee Wood a rotation spot, and I’m crowning him my best waiver pickup of the year.
@Fogimon: Unless you grabbed Thames off the waiver after someone dropped him early then I’d say yes. Permitted he keeps this up.
Thanks Ralph!
I missed you yesterday so let me ask…McKenzie or Giolito going forward in dynasty?
Great write up! Bold placement of Berrios but I concur – he looked great.
@Steven Ambrose Pearce: Mckenzie, he’s got three plus pitches, the groundball rate, and all the buzz. Giolito is getting worse, his start Saturday was the bright spot of his 2017, and that’s not saying much he was just okay.
Sorry, closer question. Knebel v. Wilson ? Coinflip ? Or is Det. more likely to try and give it back to KRod ?
@Andrew Edenbaum: I like Knebel, think he’s more likely to stick.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Agree, but Wilson has really been a witch and KRod looks done.
@Andrew Edenbaum: Numbers are a little better, and K-Rod does look done. Less options in Detroit too, but my gut tells me Knebel. It is very close.
@Ralph Lifshitz:
Sad thing is the Tigers Traded Knebel to get KRod. Facepalm.
@LightBlack: Hahaha great tidbit.
Jose Berrios says deal with it :)
I’ve always liked Wood as a pitcher and human. Maybe this can be his magic season and it would be of great benefit if someone would step up pull the Jagr to CKs Lemieux this season. I’m a Cards fan, but I think the Dodgers have a solid chance at 1988 this year. And their fans deserve it.
Shout out to PR for the Karns scouting report… damn I love reading those
@lyricist: apologies… that was supposed to be a remark on SunTzu’s initial post
@lyricist: No worries, Wood has looked great, but I don’t want to just throw him in the top 50 yet.
Is Nola where he is, because he has to prove effectiveness after coming of the DL? Guys like Karns and Shoemaker are FAs in my league.
@dustyfingers: Yes, he could move up but he’s aggravated the back when coming back before. I need to know he’s going to return and it won’t be bothering him.
I have too many good 1Bs. What range on this list do you think I should be targeting in exchange for Hanley?
@Rice: 40 and up.
Would you trade an mid-priced Kluber and a very cheap Dahl to get a non-keepable scherzer in a Keeper league?
@Nelson: Only if I was a pitcher away from taking the crown.
In a 12 team h2h points keeper league. Do you think AJ Griffin is a decent trade target, or someone like Karns who is on the WW is a better option ROS?
@My Seven Rizzos: Karns
@lyricist: Karns, he’s really been pretty damn good.
@lyricist: Go for the gold now, the meh shall always be found in differing streams
@lyricist: Always
16 team h2h with QS/holds/hits/OPS added and only 2 DL spots. keep any 6 per year, no escalations, just binary keep or not.
C flowers
1B goldy (K)
2B odor (K, was a keeper anyway)
SS segura (K)
3B arenado (K)
OF (3) pollock/pillar/schebler
util (2) trumbo/puig
BN to-jo
NA meadows
sounds like pollock is gonna hit DL
SP wood/lackey/chavez/andriese/shoemaker/hahn/ryu
RP norris/glover/betances/familia/bearclaw/bradley/rivero
DL thor/rodon
probably gonna have to either hold rodon in active slot or drop him when pollock hits DL.
either way drop familia for either a SP or a RP. only 4 moves per week so can’t stream much, plus choices are terrible. i originally obtained bradley thinking he’d get SP by now, but godley has been probably too good enough for that. only held him from him being good and possible saves chance.
SP: cashner/perdomo/norris/miranda/peacock/c.green
RP: farq/koji/j.smith/siegrist/rogers/dunn/kela/blevins
2. 20 team dynasty h2h with 7 RP slots. holds/k per 9/ relief appearances/relief wins:
which 2 out of grilli/hembree/fields/nicasio. fields has worst role currently but best skills, BOS’s pen usage is quite weird lately, hard to read. grilli has been awful and no holds in a while (while other TOR guys are getting them). nicascio up to at least 7th inning lately and rivero maybe hurt now.
@Eli Man Penguin Boy: rankings of course say norris/perdomo/rodon but if rodon’s longer term value trumps this and pollock goes DL i’d be wise to save one of my remaining 3 moves to grab a hitter.
Would you give up Benintendi for Darvish in a keep 4 forever league?
@Ralf: I’m on the fence about it, as I love Darvish, but you’d be fool-hearty to think Darvish is good and healthy for the next three seasons.
Is Maeda pitching this week? I also have Ryu and I am not sure which one to start. Thanks
I have Ryu too, and unless your name is Kershaw, I think we can expect to see that 7 man rotation used around that 10 day DL to supplement that staff
@asdfasdf: @Chucky: Yeah it looks like they’re playing a shell game with their DL spot. With Ryu skipped he’s almost pitching every 10 days. It’s kind of crazy, I left him off for that reason, otherwise he’s somewhere in the 50’s-60’s.
Will rich hill be climbing the ranks if/when he starts? Or too many concerns about injury and rotation spot? Would you rather own Hill or Wood going forward?
Thanks!
@Wacha Wacha: I’d rather own Wood, the current 7 man rotation has me going crazy. I have no idea where to rank these guys!
Hey Ralph, love your work. How wold you rank these rps ros:
Reed
Knebel
Wilson
Brach
@Eric: Brach, Knebel, Wilson, Reed
Whats your feelings on 2 KC LHPs Duffy and vargas, this week v Yankees?
@Chucky: I’m not real enthusiastic about either turn. In fact I’m even less excited about their trip to the Bronx early next week, that’s one I’d sit for both. The home ones, I might gamble with.
Good stuff smooth buddy, dig the every batter aspect. Only qualm is I have a big problem with your way too low ranking of All Eyez On Me
@nick the smooth dick: Makaveli the don, killuminati all through ya body, blow like a 12 gauge shotty. lol
@Ralph Lifshitz: I mean if that’s how you want it, if that’s how you feel. Coming up as a writer in the ‘spect game, livin’ in Razz lane ahhh for real.
Yet and still, I love the way you activate your ranks and push advice out. Got a smoothie wanting it so bad, my wife just passed out…
@nick the smooth dick: Wives be sleepin!
@Ralph Lifshitz: *Reggie voice* Women be sleepin babyyy, women be sleepin! You can’t STOP a woman from sleepin!
@nick the smooth dick: Seeeeeeen Who-whoooooooooaaaaaaaaoooo-skilllllidie-bidilly-skiddily-whoooooooooooaaaa SEEEN!
Stanton, Duffy and Herrera for Freeman and Quintana : fair deal?
Which Herrara?
@Chucky: Kelvin Herrera
Freeman is the best layer in the deal fwiw. i know thats important to some ppl.
@Robert: It’s pretty fair to me, have been going back and forth as to the stronger side. I think I prefer the Stanton side in RCL, but the Freeman side in points or a saves+holds format.
@Ralph Lifshitz: 10 team h2h, some others in league might veto because am dealing from strength (pitching)
@Robert: Doesn’t seem that slanted.
Trade Duffy for Odor?
@Sano Chance in Hell: Yes, I’d take Odor for Duffy.
Great list Ralph, of course that may be because I have 4 of the top 14; The one that sticks out to me is Surly Duffman; I dropped him in a 5×5 10-team roto league a few weeks ago and he hasn’t been picked up. He did play well in the last two outings against Cleveland and Baltimore; is his velo picking up or do you see something i’m missing…
Aside from those 2 beatings he took v CHW, his other starts aren’t bad at all. Duffy that is…amid all the sell now noise.
@Chucky: @Count de Monetball: Gotta agree with Chuck, he’s definitely owned in all formats for me. He’s been getting a lot more groundball contact, and had been a definite flyball guy before. What I like is his SwStr is still good at 12% while getting weaker groundball contact. He was a little homer prone last season despite the breakout.
Give up yelich for kluber and castellanos. Dynasty
Id do that…
@Chris: How deep? Anything under 16 I’d want Yelich.
You like biagini?
@Bosox: Yeah, he’s interesting for sure, most certainly on my deep league radar.
Stealing JB’s job now! Who next?
Nate still not cracked the top 100 though? And what you make of Berrios first start, going by your ranking you must be impressed!
@Swfcdan: He’s number 56
@Swfcdan: Ha! Yes, I was dying to write another 2500 words every Monday. I’m going after Grey next!
Missed Nasty Nate at 56 my good man, up from last week’s 71.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Ha give Grey a break, how about Smokey’s job next.
Nice, not a bad pickup in deeper leagues there Nate the great! Got mega wood for Wood too the way he’s been pitching, gotta love all these phantom dodger DL’s to keep him in there. Roberts must have him on his fantasy team.
Never saw the change at the summit until now. Big bad brave call there!
@Swfcdan: Hahaha I hate bullpens! Smokey can keep it, maybe the RCL bots are interested.
Yeah, it will be interesting how this rotation shakes out with the 7 arms.
Did that from the jump, he’s been better than Kershaw, he really has. All the numbers back it, and while Kershaw is still the man, there are somethings trending the wrong way.
@Ralph Lifshitz: what are all these “RCL bot” comments ahout?
https://razzball.com/podcast-robots-invaded-razzball/
@Good Will Hunting 2: Hunting Season: F-ing robots
I see you still believe in Jake the snake…..
Full keeper league trade offer:
Arrietta for Encarnacion.
Who wins?
Thanks!
@Chud: Wow that’s a tough one, I always go hitter but E5 looks bad too. Jake is down 5 spots. I probably go Arrieta still.
Salazar at 16, ballzy…but I like it.
He’s on the wire in my league and I’m thinking about picking up him and dropping Hanniger. I need pitching and my OF is loaded.
Seems legit, right? Or I could drop Kemp/Story/Desmond instead…
@Fister Furbush: I really want to tell you Story, but I understand Haniger and probably would myself.
Yeah he leads MLB in K per among starters, so he’s on that group where there’s some concern of regression, or some regression the other way on the ERA. If Salazar is bad this time he may drop out of the Top 20-25.
Karns, Lackey or Morton pick for ROS?
@King Bob: pick 2 sorry?
@King Bob: Lackey and Morton.
@Ralph Lifshitz: thanks
Hey Ralph, great write up as usual.
Off topic but I need some advice, sit one this week;
JD, Desmond, Avasail, Edwin, Benintendi, Votto.
Obvious answer is Ava but Edwin’s been stinking it up
@Niceguybilly: If your guy says Edwin then do it
Ralph!!
H2H pts weekly lock league.
Which pitcher is the better stream this week for their two starts?
Chase Anderson (first start is at SD & vs Perdoma. 2nd Start is at Chicago & Jake Arrieta.)
Jesse Chavez (vs White Sox & mike pelfrey, 2nd Start is @ Mets & zach wheeler.)
Matt Cain (vs Dodgers & Brandon McCarthy, then 2nd start at STL & wainwright.)
—
Question two is would you drop lance lynn for either alex wood or Jose berrios? Thanks!!
@Gregg: No I’d hold on Lynn, and I’m actually going to say go Chavez
Tanaka is an obvious riser after his performance this week. 1.2 IP and 4 homers screams top 30 SP for sure!
@Curious George Springer: wow, yeah. obviously this written before the sunday night game.
@Curious George Springer: @Eli Man Penguin Boy: Does one or two starts make a season? Why don’t you two post your top 100 in the comments and lets see the brilliance of your pea. At the end of the year are you really going to look back and say he did a poor job because he didn’t move players around like a cracked out blind monkey?
@Curious George Springer: Unfortunately I did my ranks prior to last night, the worst start of his career. Outside of his first start and last start he’s a low 3 ERA guy on a very good team. He’s up a few spaces and Maeda was put on the DL.
A great read as always!
15 team 5×5 roto.
I”m loving what i’ve got from Dylan Bundy so far. But how many innings is realistic this season…?
If I can get Ian Desmond for Bundy + Mazara, is that valuing Bundy too lightly, fair deal or a steal for me?
Thanks…!
@braves uk: Is it re-draft? If I’m set at pitcher sure.
@Ralph Lifshitz: Great, thanks. Deal accepted
Prospect Overlord,
Is Andrew Benintendi a top 30 keeper in a keep 3 Ten Team League? I currently own Goldy, Bryant, Rizzo, Correa, Benny and Springer.
I have been offered Myers, Sano, Murphy, Thames, McCullers, Degrom, his 1st and 2nd picks next year for my Bryamt, Rizzo and 10th and 11th picks.
Third world problems… I know, but if I move Rizzo and Bryant, would I keep Goldy, Correa and Benintendi? Springer? Myers? Sano?
Thanks for digging deep. Is it time to stash Devers?
@Jurickson BROfar: Or do I hold and just Scrooge McDuck my Goldy, Rizzo and Bryant?
@Jurickson BROfar: I’d make the deal that’s a haul
@Ralph Lifshitz: Done. Gracias.
As a Royal’s fan, I have to say Dayton Moore won this trade (Karns for Dustin), at least so far! And Karns is controllable through 2020. I sure hope he keeps it up!
15 team keeper league, we have to keep 2 pitchers. My best two options to keep for 2018 right now are Kluber and McCullers. Would you be happy with that? Would Hader, Glasnow, or Jon Gray be viable options?
Thank you
@Sport: @Sport:
Sorry about the auto correct. That was Karns for Jarrod Dyson.
@Sport: I’d stick with your keepers.
Yeah, the curve is legit.
JB will always occupy a place in my heart, but I’m enjoying your rankings and posts as well. They are helping me stay the course when I have guys like C-Mart and Salazar bloating my whip and era (especially because all 7 of my starters are at #42 or better).
@Hugman: Pitching has been crazy, things will stabilize.
Any idea if/where Junior Guerra would rank once he comes back?
@C-TPO: I think around 65-80. Rehab start did not go great, 4 innings, 5 runs, 2 earned, 6 hits, 3 walks, 2 K’s, and 2 homers. Rough…. On another note Acuna had two hits off him.
Arietta ahead of Greinke? You trippin bro!
@StevenDeGafney: Yeah They’re moving in opposite directions. So many top pitchers are slumping or bad or hurt. Trying to balance the long term and big picture with recency bias.
Have to put Pollock on DL
Only have 1 spot open
Do I drop Paxton or Haniger??
@Adam: Haniger
Who would you say would be the top 3 prospects that will come up from now to end of the season
Moncada was added last year in league – The prospects setup is as Yahoo adds so most of them are not on rosters as of yet
@mrbaseball: Brinson, Derek Fisher, and Amed Rosario. I’d throw in Franklin Barreto too
@Ralph Lifshitz:@Ralph Lifshitz: this nicely approximates my “who’s best this year stash in AL only” below, unless my specific roster below influences that.
Hey, Ralph. Nunez or Galvis? Thanks!
@Jerry: Prolly Galvis
Would you trade Freeman/Ozuna/Urias to get Trout?
Getting Beltre back for another Corner.
Thanks!
@Chris: Are you any better?
Current Roster is:
C: Yadi
1B: Freeman
2B: Altuve
SS: Andrus
3B: Shaw
MI: Villar
CI: Arenado
OF: Polanco
OF: Josh Bell
OF: Ozuna
OF: Domingo Santana
Util: Hosmer
Util C. Santana
DL: Braun, Beltre
I’m a little down at OF, really depends on Braun’s health. Have a lot of corner’s right now.
@Chris: Yeah you need to upgrade your OF
Ralph…you’re the shizz. Between your rookie-nookie write-ups, and now, the Top-100 pitchers, can give you enough kudos. It’s probably been asked before, but what happened to JB?
@Slimcompoop: JB had some more pressing things to attend to.
@Slimcompoop: we never get to hear the real stories, except guru, who i heard about from nick and sky on their what i think will be 3 years ago this summer van tour round the country. there’s no way JB’s story is that sensational (don’t intend to mean it is) but for a less cryptic answer see JB’s last few posts (including basketball). i’m not messing with ralph here, it shouldn’t be his business to go into details i would think.
Hi,
My hitting is absolutely atrocious. One of the better team owners is sitting in last place due to injury bug with the pitching staff and some bad MI. Is Xander Bogaerts/Odor and Dylan Bundy for Kris Bryant that laughable of an offer? I have McCullers, Darvish, And Archer anchoring the rotation.
XB has O HRS and Odor’s average is terrible. Not sure which one paired with Bundy would be more enticing. Also for what it’s worth I could always throw in Carlos Santana or a closer (Neris or Bush) to juice the offer up a bit.
Thank you in advance!
@John: I think that’s a solid offer, I don’t expect Odor to remain down all year. I wouldn’t throw in too many players.
Desmond for Morton straight up. Thoughts?
Relatively shallow keeper (Keep 10) league. Im relatively strong in OF/UTIL and do not like having too many bench offensive players.
@b the esq.: Desmond side easy
with zimmer up who’s best this year stash in AL only
c.gillaspie, alford, r.guzman, vogelbach, olson, chapman, n.gordon, bung hole park, thaiss, aj reed, fisher, hicks, moya, bradley, travis, devers (although i thought you said not this year)
didn’t list pitchers as i’m betting one of these is best rest of roster
C mccann (DET)
1B miggy
2B segura
SS correa
3B mostsuckass
OF (4) rajai/delino/trumbo/k.davis
util mancini
BN zimmer
DL gomez (when they get around to it)
@Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: and CI valbueana, MI miller
@Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: Fisher or Barreto. Moncada is obvious, but my guess is he’s owned.
@Ralph Lifshitz: oh hells yeah. think during draft only maybe 4 guys grabbed moncada/barreto/ my zimmer and 1 or 2 others, 1 NA slot league. o’neill by a SEA fan was one of them.
@Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: it wasn’t barreto, it was gleybar.
Rough return from dl for McCarthy… does that cause any concern? Would you go Karns over McCarthy?
@crenshaw07: Karns over the Mick!
when do you think Brinson gets the call up?
@Kevin: June 5-15th
No mention of Jordan Montgomery. Are you low on him or more wait and see?
@Crabman: he’s been discussed in podcast and probably elsewhere, junkballer. no big thing, don’t let that NY media influence.
@Crabman: The home run is going to catchup with him IMO. He’s a flyball guy with a sub 10% HR/FB
Was Jon Gray overlooked or do you not see him as a Top 100 pitcher? Are you expecting him to be out longer than a couple more weeks?
@Toast: I’m not ranking him until I know he’s coming back. Same with Steven Matz, who could enter next week.
this was a 7 round draft (slow on message board, average time per pick round 2.3 hours, and this includes the night hours, as i only have played in leagues with about 3 of these guys before this i consider a big success, i’m comish of it, i’m the one sending out emails after nearly every damn pick) that started march 6. OPS,holds, QS, total bases, bunch of stats, K/9, K/BB etc. 16 team dynasty we drafted the prospects first (7 man protected list that cannot be added to during season, do have to call up at 150/30 limits during season, can trade for other prospects midseason, in yahoo BUT you could’ve drafted guys not in yahoo). don’t need to delve through whole thing, just seeing how i did (mine in caps).i said this at the time and noticed fisher is VERY low on a LOT of standard prospect lists back in march
round 1:
1.1 -glasnow SP PIT
1.2 – moncada 3B (probably 2B soon too) WSOX
1.3 – giolito SP WSOX
1.4 – benintendi LF BOS
1.5 – y.alvarez SP LAD
1.6 – g.torres SS NYY
1.7 – swanson SS ATL
1.8 -c.frazier CF NYY
1.9 – albies SS ATL
1.10 – – a.rosario SS NYM
1.11 — barreto SS OAK
1.12 – MEADOWS CF PIT
1.13 -bellinger 1B LAD
1.14 – devers 3B BOS
1.15 – robles CF ATL
1.16 – – e.jimenez LF CUBS
2.1 – rodgers SS COL
2.2 senzel 3B CIN
2.3 vlad guerrero jr 3B TOR
2.4 groome SP BOS
2.5 A.REYES SP STL
2.6 renfroe RF SD
2.7- bell 1B/RF PIT
2.8 – brinson CF MIL
2.9- judge RF NYY
2.10 – crawford SS PHI
2.11 -moniak CF PHI
2.12 happ 2B/OF CUBS
2.13 maitan SS ATL
2.14 tapia CF COL
2.15 honeywell SP TB
2.16 kopech SP WSOX
3.1 adames SS TB
3.2 a.espinoza SP SD
3.3 de leon SP TB
3.6 zimmer CF CLE
3.7 margot CF SD
3.8 mateo SS NYY
3.9 tucker RF HOU
3.10 hader SP MIL
3.11 kelly C STL
3.12 K.LEWIS RF SEA
3.13 mejia C CLE
3.14 mckenzie SP CLE
3.15 calhoun 2B (probably not by the time he’s up) LAD
3.16 martes SP/RP HOU
4.1 c.ray CF MIL
4.2 keller SP PIT
4.3 f.whitley SP HOU
4.4 haniger LF/CF SEA
4.5 I.DIAZ SS/2B MIL
4.6 kaprielian SP NYY
4.7 t.o’neill LF SEA
4.8 weaver SP STL
4.9 t.murphy C COL
4.10 garrett SP CIN
4.11reid-foley SP TOR
4.12 cisco C BAL
4.13 acuna CF ATL
4.14 hudson SP/RP STL
4.15 b.garrett SP MIA
4.16 dom smith 1B NYM
5.1 bauers 1B/OF TB
5.2 allard SP ATL
5.3 -chang SS CLE
5.4 gsellman SP NYM
5.5 manning SP DET
5.6 alford CF TOR
5.7 alfaro C PHI
5.8 sheffield SP NYY
5.9 pint SP COL
5.10 verdugo RF LAD
5.11 d.brito 2B PHI
5.12 COLLINS C WSOX
5.13 dejong SS/3B STL
5.14 morejon SP SD
5.15 puk SP/RP OAK
5.16 r.lopez SP WSOX
6.1 n.gordon SS MIN
6.2 soto RF WAS
6.3 tatis jr SS SD
6.4 glover RP WAS
6.5 FEDDE SP WAS
6.6 chapman 3B OAK
6.7 bradley 1B CLE
6.8 cotton SP OAK
6.9 gonsalves SP/RP MIN
6.10 winker LF
6.11 tellez 1B TOR
6.12 -i.anderson SP ATL
6.13 quantrill SP SD
6.14 asuaja 2B SD
6.15 lazarito (i.e. l.armentaros) LF OAK
6.16 fulmer SP/RP WSOX
7.1 c.gillaspie 1B TB
7.2 beede SP SF
7.3 FISHER RF HOU
7.4. d.perez SS STL
7.5 newman SS PIT
7.6 l.gurriel 2B/SS TOR
7.7 hoskins 1B PHI
7.8 d.fowler OF NYY
7.9 cozens RF PHI
7.10 buehler -SP LAD
7.11 c.green SP NYY
7.12 y.gurriel 1B/3B HOU
7.13 c.adams SP NYY
7.14 c.greene SP TOR
7.15 toles LF/RF LAD
7.16 tebow NYM (if he’s attempting a position i believe it’s OF)
other than no 1B i think i did pretty well. active rosters have 2 NA and 5 DL (and will max those out more next year, i’m completely against anybody in a dynasty league having to either drop or get less competitive), so i stashed aj reed during regular draft (and kang)
12 team dynasty where i have to drop somebody to activate zimmer so i can rid myself of my clever idea of getting some 3 day holds likelyness from d.hernandez LAA who was so damn awesome all year till right when i grabbed him. h2h with QS/holds/OPS and long ass benches.
C sanchez
2B E5
2B pedroia
SS villar
3B franco
LF k.davis
CF cain sugar
RF upton
util thames
BN swanson/rupp/brocktune
NA fisher/acuna/calhoun/zimmer
SP carmart/carrasco/mccarthy/karns/andriese/corbin/hendricks/arrieta/morton
V2/nova
RP bush/osuna/knebel/iglesias/hernandez (stream holds guy)
DL kluber/reyes/richards/skaggs
could be rupp but backup catchers aren’t terrible to have and these pitchers, are in general better than FA guys, and i’m having to drop at least one of them for kluber coming up anyway. it’s daily-tomorrow yahoo so it’s not as if i can daily grab a catcher for sanchez off days, if i could i would not carry a 2nd catcher. zimmer also might be ugly enough owning to trade/drop shortly as well.
I like the new format! Thank you for the effort you put into this!
@longbeachyo: i do like the improvements and they really do stand out as this was what only the 3rd of these since he took over? great stuff. hard to drop karns now even in instances where SON might marginally like somebody else more
I have Sean Manaea on my roster and both Salazar and Wacha both just got dropped. Would you drop Manaea for Salazar or Wacha? If Salazar gets claimed as he’s the one I’m leaning toward would you drop him for Wacha or just keep Manaea?
Should I trade Keyshaw for degrom and porcello in a 16 team 4 keeper league where you can keep them forever if you want? In second place and have a chance to win it all this year