I’m writing this lede as Tristan McKenzie comes off a near-perfect game with 11Ks. As fans — like, baseball fans who spend their time watching games and maybe even attending them — this is cool as hell, right? A rookie throws a no-hitter in his first appearance on Saturday night and then another near-rookie throws a near-perfect game the next day. Each pitcher is on a bombing team that is in a race for draft picks in the 2022 lottery. Yet, the players refuse to give up. They see the lights, the contracts, the ability to overcome their past mistakes. But we as fantasy players, sometimes we’re just puzzled. Do I like McKenzie in a real-life setting? Oh hell yeah, I named him the “Cardiac Kid” last year after his desire to be a cardiologist. But in fantasy? He struck out as many batters on Sunday as he had struck out in his previous 3 starts combined (he also had a 6.00 ERA / 6.00 FIP / 5.8 K/9). The reason we play fantasy sports is just because wild stuff like this happens. The unexpected happens every week, and we can’t predict who will throw a no-hitter or who will get blown up. With that, I bid everybody a great week as we round the corner into the last weeks of the fantasy baseball season.
Original image found The Dynasty Guru
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Starting Pitchers
Tyler Gilbert: Tell me if you’ve heard this story before: an electrician turns the lights on and then goes lights out as a starting pitcher. Because that’s the Tyler Gilbert story. Deal is, Tyler Gilbert had a 5.37 xFIP in AAA ball this year before hitting the majors as an innings-eater on a tanking team. Do you wonder what’s going on in the front office as Gilbert is making history and having the world cheer for him. Do you think the guy in charge of the 2022 draft is sipping from his bourbon (neat, smoke flavor added) thinking, “Damnit, this rookie is gonna make us draft from the 4 spot!” To you, anonymous front office worker with a bad taste in alcohol, I say celebrate the small things. Actually, Gilbert had a ton of defensive help in this one, so it really was a team effort. Gilbert’s kind of an 8 K/9 guy with not a ton of upside — maybe he just really thrives when the pressure is on? — but for fantasy purposes, you don’t really need to chase him.
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Chris Sale: Are you sick of me talking about him yet? But really, we’ve got a former Cy Young award winner who is capable of K’ing 11+ per 9 joining a potent offense against a bunch of teams that haven’t seen him pitch in 2 years…this is an absolute recipe for the fantasy playoffs. And you know what he did in his 2021 debut? 5IP, 8Ks, 0 BB, 2 ER on 6 hits. The Red Sox ended up tagging the Orioles for 16 runs on Saturday — so Sale really didn’t need to strain himself whatsoever. We’ll likely see Sale work his way up to 6IP before season’s end, so he’ll be a monster –the good kind, like Sully from Monsters, Inc. — in K/9 leagues while being just a classic Mike Wazowski in redraft due to his lack of IP ceiling.
Marco Gonzales: We’ve got the evidence that Marco Gonzales has gaining velocity on his fastball and it’s effective again. His swinging-strike rate is up above 10% again over the past month, and his ERA is about 1.30. Sure, the advanced metrics suggest that he’s going to have some blowups, but Gonzales’ famed weak-contact rate (5% barrel rate, 30% hard-hit rate over the past month) — which led him to a top 10 SP finish on the 2020 fantasy player rater — could be golden to finish out the year. Relievers are in shambles right now (are they ever not?) and Gonzales is rostered in only 50% of leagues (with good reason — his start of the year was horrible). But! We’re looking at everything trending in the right direction, and Gonzales would be a nice pickup to finish out the fantasy year. Obviously, don’t start him against monster bats (and if you’re in the top of your fantasy standings, you should be avoiding all of those matchups right now), but otherwise let him get that soft contact.
Madison Bumgarner: Another kind of pitcher that I’m not particularly thrilled with, but if you’re desperate to make the playoffs, then you should know that he’s available in 70% of leagues and I’m not responsible for only blowups he has along the way. MadBum famously stopped training during Covid (but didn’t we all?) and he never really caught up to his old form. He’s only 32! The Diamondbacks have him under contract for another three years, which means they really want him to figure out his issues, and I can tell you, he’s not quite doing that right now. Over the past month, he’s got a 2.00 ERA with a 3.65 FIP, which is OK, but not thrilling given his 6.0 K/9. The Diamondbacks are really playing some solid defense recently, eh? What’s weird is that the D-backs are actually in the bottom third of the league in DEF WAR. So…maybe my recommendation of MadBum should be taken very, very lightly.
Kyle Freeland: OK, I missed this guy, but so did everybody else. See, I’m finding all these wildly overlooked pitchers to help you in your fantasy quest! So, over his last 60 IP, Kyle Freeland has an 8 K/9 to a sub 2 BB/9, with a 2.53 ERA and a 3.70 xFIP. But Coors Field! You shout, and I hear you. Do you want to win your fantasy league or just finish 7th? You need to take advantage to win, not sit idly in the dugout chewing sunflower seeds (like I did throughout my youth). Yeah, he’s SP 150 on the year because he’s got a whopping 4 wins on a tanking Rockies team. But the Rockies have the 2nd best DEF WAR as a team and most of the damage done against him is via singles/doubles (with a minuscule 0.68 HR/9 rate over the last 50 IP). It’s time to get aggressive and win your league: add Kyle Freeland. And if I’m wrong, of course I was: I told you to take a Coors Pitcher, which is way worse than a pitcher of Coors.
Griffin Jax: Cal Quantrill 2.0 right now. Yeah, 10K game where he gave up 2 dingers (shades of Gerrit Cole?), but for the most part, he’s been blown out more than he’s been blowing by batters this year. If you roster him, you might be the mouse getting eaten by the griffon.
Space:X Rankings
Corbin Burnes takes the top spot after his ridiculous 60% CSW performance this week, but really, he’s always been one of the top guys. Our biggest worry about Corbin Burnes was that he might hit an IP cap, but he’s surpassed the 6IP mark in 5 out of his last 7 games, so we’re likely seeing that Burnes will anchor the team’s playoff run and might get a rest once the Brewers secure their place in the postseason. Chris Sale debuts around #20, due in large part to Rudy’s top 10 ROS score for Sale. Told you to get him months ago! As always, I rank pitchers based on confidence based on if they pitch. Jacob deGrom is obviously not starting right now, and we’re hearing he might be shut down for the year. He was also supposed to be “ready to go” weeks ago. So, in case deGrom or whoever starts, you’ve got my confidence ranking ready.
Let me know which pitchers you’re trusting for the playoff race on your teams!
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