I’ve been working on my new script, which is largely a ripoff of Lars and the Real Girl, except put into context for the Covid era. Can I try out the plot on y’all? It’s about a middle-aged man — let’s call him, say, Greyson Albertson, — who has his cardboard cutout returned to him after fans return to the parks. Except, he didn’t receive his own cutout, but the cutout of a staggeringly handsome Gritty, the mascot for the Philadelphia Flyers. At first, Greyson puts Gritty at the kitchen table as a joke, saying, “Avocado toast again, Gritty? No wonder you’re homeless!” Over time, Greyson learns to trust — and even love? — Gritty, but a harrowing encounter with Donkey Teeth’s Kerryon Johnson Fathead cutout changes everything. There’s also a chase sequence through Starbucks when Greyson gets upset at somebody calling the coffee “gritty.” How’s that sound? Let me know in the comments if I should keep writing it. Or, if I should just stick with pitchers. To the Greinke graphic!
News and Notes
- Last week I wondered if Gallen had been affected by his pre-season incurred wrist fracture (how’s that for a modified noun?)more than reporters/bloggers had known. This week, we got the confirmation that Gallen was struggling in the elbow department and went to the IL with a sprain of his UCL in this throwing arm. Now, I’m a doctor but not that kind of doctor, but I did earn some wages writing medical textbooks at one point in my life (true story). And when I saw the word “sprain,” I cross-textualized the combobulator and came up with a comparison: Dinelson Lamet. Now! [puts on scrub cap I got from the Halloween store and enters room somberly]. Family, I have some bad news for you. Whatever’s going on in Gallen’s elbow isn’t good. [pauses to visit the vending machine and buy a Milky Way] He could be out for a year. [wrestles with the candy bar wrapper] He could try to play through it and do as well as Lamet has done [fills mouth with creamy nougat] Mmmwhph. Also, Lamet just made his debut as a bullpen arm yesterday. [wipes mouth with shirt] Or Gallen could just be waiting for inflammation to go down, give it another shot (of cortisone?), and then go see Dr. Freeze or Dr. ElFreeze. Either way, injuries like this don’t bode well. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’ve got a tee time to meet. [Dr. Blair waddles off]
- Aw crap, I’m gonna miss that tee time, aren’t I? I knew I picked the wrong doctor career line. SEW. Jake from the Grom had a tight lat muscle last week and missed a start, and then the Mets trainers said, “Hey just go out there and do whatever you want, not like your career is all that valuable or anything!” So the Grom played last Sunday and left the game after 5 innings with [checks notes] a sore lat muscle on his right side. Great! [mixes up a milk and Pepsi]. There’s nothing we like more than our aces being allowed to pitch through sore muscles, right? Not like backs are important to velocity or control, eh? [swigs milk and Pepsi in one gulp] On the plus side, deGrom hasn’t torn anything and the MRI came back clean. On the downside, the Mets. In the upside-down, use holiday lights to communicate with the world of the living.
- I bring you your league leader in wins, Jackson Waldo Flaherty! I think I used that joke last week with a different name than Waldo. Welcome to Razzball, where every joke is recycled to help the environment! Flaherty’s pitching well all around and he’s notching extra wins because he’s got a quality start in 6 out of 8 games. That’ll do, Jack. Peripheral numbers are all lining up with his baseball card stats, and if he keeps up his career-low homer avoidance, we’ll see an easy top 10 finish for Flaherty. Trust the process people!
- Now we move on to post-injury news. After what many analysts suspected to be merely Covid exposure quarantine, we discovered this week that Burnes had the full-blown vid (something I haven’t said since 1997). He came back this week to set the MLB record for most strikeouts before issuing a walk to start the season. He now has a 58K/1BB line for the year, and if the Brewers could only get him some wins, he’d be unassailable at the top of Mt. Player Rater, where Rudy is Zeus.
- BRB I’m just going to take a nap because Gibson is so yawnstipating. But yawnstipating can win your league (looks at Marco Gonzales before 2021). Gibson hasn’t even hit 8 K/9 and his advanced run control stats (xERA/FIP/SIERA) are over a point higher than his ERA, but even his true skills are showing top 50 SP upside. Gibson’s been a workhorse over the course of his career, and at 33 years old, we could be seeing a Charlie Morton-style reinvention (Morton was also 33 when he went from perennial Pirate to 10 K/9 all-star). If Gibson can rack up the innings with a 7 K/9, he’ll be on pace to finish the season above average in strikeouts. Slow and steady wins the race! He’s still available in 10% of RCLs and probably more Yahoo leagues so go grab him and sleepwalk your way to victory.
Cole Irvin:
- Still available in about 40% of RCL leagues, although he’s cooling down to his expected stats right about now. He’s had two blah performances in a row after a hot start, but we’ve seen his upside and it’s not unreasonable to project his skill set for a top 50 finish, which is useful to all fantasy managers.
- Berrios hit a weird patch (get it, Berrios…patch…[walks off cliff]) where he’s been pretty blah over his past few games, but there’s a bit of bad luck at play. His xFIP over the past 3 games is 3.90, and the out of the zone contact % against him has been in the 70%+ range. In other words, batters are swinging at balls and making them go into play. They’re also hitting the balls in the zone at a 90%+ rate. Bleh. [runs over to Statcast] Uh, he’s lost velocity in his past two games compared to his early-season hot start. Uh oh. His changeup is nearly a mile per hour slower and his curveball has lost between 1-2 inches of horizontal break. You might want to pump the breaks on Berrios for a bit here. I’m not saying abandon ship, but I’m saying the Tigers put a 15% barrel rate on Berrios and then the Athletics followed it up with a 17% barrel rate. The underlying stuff is still good, but we may be looking at a small batch of rotten Berrios. Makes us wonder if he’s tired or hiding a bit of an injury. Pay close attention to his velocity in his next start for confirmation.
- He’s always had a bit of trouble with his command, which limits his upside and keeps him off the starting rotation for extended periods of time. But he’s had two value-positive starts in the past week and he’s slated for another two-start week in favorable matchups, so it might be time to grab Velasquez and see if he can stick this time. He’s available just about everywhere. Just make sure to search for VV and not W.
- Edited the post just to update that he broke his hand punching a bench. Sonovabench! Reports say he’ll be out for months, which basically takes him out for the rest of the year. Son of a…
Heat Maps
Well, I wish I could help you with FAAB but we’re basically out of novel options right now. Welcome to Vince Velasquez SZN! Instead of telling you to find solace with awful pitchers, I wanted to try something new. So, I took this week’s cumulative data and compared it to the cumulative data from Week 4, which gives us a sense of which pitchers are performing “hot” right now and which pitchers are “cold.” Recency bias: it’s everything your logic professor loved!
Hot Shots:
- Garrett Richards, Robbie Ray, Shohei Ohtani, Dylan Cease, and Madison Bumgarner have the biggest K-BB% differential (9% and above). These guys are controlling their pitches better than anybody over the past month, and many of you know Ray went four starts without walking a batter. Pretty cool! No, wait, they’re supposed to be hot. Yeah, Robbie Ray is hot. JORDACHE!
- The above plus Corey Kluber are the best SIERA improvers. That means they’re in control of their own fate by K’ing batters and walking fewer batters while reducing damage from hitters. It’s worth noting the next pitchers on this list are Tarik Skubal, Nick Pivetta, Yusei Kikuchi, and Chris Bassitt. You can grab some of those guys still.
- The best CSW% risers (is that a phrase?) are the above dudes and Cole Irvin, Adrian Houser, Walker Buehler, and Sonny Gray.
- This list of players simply indicates the pitchers who might have had a rough start and then have improved over the past month or so. Some elite players have been good throughout the season, so their stats are “flat.”
- Other notable risers: Austin Gomber, Tarik Skubal, Patrick Corbin, Kevin Gausman.
Hot Dogs:
- The players who’ve lost the most amount of control include Drew Smyly, Christian Javier, Jose Berrios, and Joe Musgrove. We talked about Berrios above and Musgrove is still K’ing 3x more batters than he walks, so it’s just a factor of his early-season dominance causing this “decline.” Smyly and Javier though? [teeth sucking noises]
- Considering SIERA, Smyly and Javier are joined by Kohei Arihara, Michael Fulmer, and surprisingly, Lance Lynn. Lynn’s been a bit tough recently, with his launch angle in the 20s and his barrel rate at 10%, which are the ideal characteristics of home run balls. Keep an eye on Lynn. He’s a beefcake.
- As for CSW%, the decliners are Musgrove, Charlie Morton, and Trevor Bauer. Eek. Bauer’s still putting on some nice performances but he’s also putting up career-high numbers in barrel rate and hard hit %. Before yesterday’s start, his HR/9 was also tied for a career high, while his BABIP is a ridiculously lucky .183.
- Other notable decliners: Lucas Giolito, Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle.
Space:X Rankings
We’ve got a couple of new additions to the S-Tier, with Jack Flaherty, Brandon Woodruff, and Kevin Gausman making the promotion to the “Players most likely to be found in Grey’s rolodex” tier. Did you know he still has a rolodex? It was really helpful when he went to North Korea with Dennis Rodman. The rankings have been adjusted with the recency bias I noted above in mind; I didn’t include the recency bias in the below table because it would be super messy. As always, I don’t rank hierarchically; don’t worry too much about placement within the tiers. My rankings focus on the qualities seen among pitchers who finish in certain sections of the Player Rater, with a focus on skills over wins.
Let me know who you’re hot or cold on right now in the comments! Special shout out to all of you who’ve been there since the beginning; only 80 more weeks of the baseball season left to go!
- S-Tier: Pitchers with the characteristics most often seen in SP1-10.
- A-Tier: Your 12-team starters
- B-Tier: Streamers and fill-ins.
- C-Tier: Contrarian DFS and deep points league players
| # | Name | IP | K-BB% | SIERA | CSW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-Tier | |||||
| 1 | Corbin Burnes | 34.1 | 44.50% | 1.34 | 37.70% |
| Jacob deGrom | 40 | 41.10% | 1.65 | 34.40% | |
| Gerrit Cole | 52.2 | 39.30% | 1.77 | 34.90% | |
| Max Scherzer | 51.1 | 31.60% | 2.55 | 32.60% | |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | 57.1 | 29.50% | 2.68 | 34.70% |
| Shane Bieber | 55 | 29.10% | 2.68 | 34.80% | |
| Brandon Woodruff | 49.1 | 26.60% | 2.87 | 32.40% | |
| Kevin Gausman | 53.2 | 22.80% | 3.25 | 31.20% | |
| Jack Flaherty | 47.1 | 18.70% | 3.75 | 28.20% | |
| A-Tier | |||||
| 10 | Trevor Bauer | 57.1 | 29.00% | 2.72 | 30.70% |
| Freddy Peralta | 37 | 27.80% | 2.92 | 31.80% | |
| Joe Musgrove | 44 | 26.80% | 2.78 | 34.10% | |
| Andrew Heaney | 36 | 26.70% | 2.92 | 30.70% | |
| Walker Buehler | 44.1 | 25.90% | 2.97 | 31.10% | |
| Carlos Rodon | 36.2 | 25.50% | 3.03 | 30.00% | |
| Yu Darvish | 47.2 | 24.30% | 3.23 | 32.30% | |
| Clayton Kershaw | 50.2 | 23.80% | 3.12 | 33.20% | |
| Adbert Alzolay | 32 | 23.60% | 3.21 | 31.70% | |
| Lance Lynn | 34.2 | 23.40% | 3.33 | 26.90% | |
| Aaron Nola | 54.1 | 23.30% | 3.24 | 30.50% | |
| Julio Urias | 49.2 | 23.30% | 3.22 | 32.80% | |
| Huascar Ynoa | 39.1 | 23.20% | 3.19 | 32.50% | |
| Trevor Rogers | 44 | 22.90% | 3.35 | 31.30% | |
| John Means | 52 | 22.80% | 3.38 | 31.30% | |
| Zach Eflin | 51.1 | 22.10% | 3.3 | 29.00% | |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 39 | 22.00% | 3.36 | 29.50% | |
| Madison Bumgarner | 43.2 | 21.90% | 3.5 | 30.00% | |
| Danny Duffy | 41.2 | 21.20% | 3.55 | 29.40% | |
| Sonny Gray | 25.1 | 21.20% | 3.44 | 33.10% | |
| 30 | Tyler Mahle | 43 | 21.00% | 3.51 | 30.60% |
| Robbie Ray | 34.2 | 20.90% | 3.47 | 30.40% | |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 39.2 | 20.80% | 3.39 | 31.00% | |
| Chris Bassitt | 48.1 | 20.60% | 3.4 | 28.70% | |
| Zack Wheeler | 53.2 | 20.50% | 3.39 | 26.60% | |
| Dylan Cease | 35.1 | 20.30% | 3.64 | 29.20% | |
| JT Brubaker | 38.1 | 19.90% | 3.33 | 29.20% | |
| Sean Manaea | 43 | 19.90% | 3.63 | 29.70% | |
| Jose Berrios | 45.2 | 19.10% | 3.61 | 28.90% | |
| Michael Pineda | 38.2 | 18.80% | 3.74 | 31.30% | |
| Steven Matz | 42 | 18.30% | 3.64 | 29.90% | |
| Dylan Bundy | 43.1 | 18.30% | 3.76 | 32.00% | |
| Jordan Montgomery | 38.2 | 18.30% | 3.73 | 30.10% | |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 44 | 18.20% | 3.55 | 31.10% | |
| Rich Hill | 38 | 18.20% | 3.78 | 32.70% | |
| Lucas Giolito | 41.2 | 17.80% | 3.86 | 28.70% | |
| Luis Garcia | 29 | 17.50% | 3.94 | 29.80% | |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 46.1 | 16.80% | 3.7 | 27.20% | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 45 | 16.70% | 3.71 | 29.00% | |
| Sandy Alcantara | 51 | 16.60% | 3.84 | 29.60% | |
| 50 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 40.2 | 16.40% | 3.86 | 32.10% |
| Charlie Morton | 39 | 16.10% | 3.91 | 30.70% | |
| Logan Webb | 37 | 16.10% | 3.63 | 29.90% | |
| Tyler Anderson | 46.1 | 16.00% | 4.01 | 28.90% | |
| Cole Irvin | 47.2 | 15.90% | 4.12 | 26.30% | |
| Pablo Lopez | 44 | 15.50% | 3.93 | 26.50% | |
| Marcus Stroman | 40.2 | 15.20% | 3.61 | 25.90% | |
| Kenta Maeda | 33.2 | 14.60% | 4.09 | 27.30% | |
| Ian Anderson | 45 | 14.00% | 4 | 28.20% | |
| Kyle Gibson | 47.1 | 13.90% | 4.04 | 29.80% | |
| Taijuan Walker | 41 | 12.90% | 4.42 | 28.90% | |
| Aaron Civale | 53 | 11.50% | 4.36 | 24.20% | |
| Garrett Richards | 41.2 | 11.00% | 4.47 | 26.70% | |
| Adrian Houser | 39.2 | 10.90% | 4 | 21.80% | |
| Luis Castillo | 37.1 | 9.60% | 4.46 | 25.80% | |
| B-Tier | |||||
| 66 | Michael Kopech | 12 | 35.60% | 2.11 | 31.60% |
| Jameson Taillon | 33.1 | 25.00% | 3.12 | 30.50% | |
| Shane McClanahan | 17.1 | 23.60% | 3.17 | 34.70% | |
| Cristian Javier | 38 | 19.90% | 3.7 | 27.60% | |
| Domingo German | 37.1 | 19.00% | 3.69 | 30.10% | |
| Alex Wood | 30 | 18.80% | 3.14 | 33.60% | |
| Shohei Ohtani | 25.2 | 18.20% | 4.16 | 31.70% | |
| Griffin Canning | 29.2 | 18.00% | 3.86 | 29.10% | |
| Dane Dunning | 37.1 | 17.80% | 3.51 | 30.10% | |
| Vince Velasquez | 25.1 | 16.00% | 4.03 | 27.70% | |
| Blake Snell | 34.1 | 15.80% | 4.13 | 29.70% | |
| Luke Weaver | 36 | 15.80% | 4.08 | 28.10% | |
| Zac Gallen | 26.2 | 15.70% | 4.12 | 29.00% | |
| Frankie Montas | 42 | 15.10% | 4.16 | 25.90% | |
| Adam Wainwright | 46.2 | 14.40% | 4.17 | 30.80% | |
| Chris Paddack | 30.1 | 14.30% | 4.13 | 28.80% | |
| Mike Foltynewicz | 45 | 14.20% | 4.31 | 25.40% | |
| Zack Greinke | 51.2 | 13.60% | 4.24 | 26.50% | |
| Jose Urquidy | 44.2 | 13.60% | 4.59 | 26.50% | |
| Wade Miley | 39 | 13.10% | 3.72 | 25.00% | |
| Jon Gray | 46 | 13.00% | 4.18 | 30.00% | |
| Corey Kluber | 41.1 | 12.40% | 4.4 | 29.60% | |
| Matthew Boyd | 41.2 | 12.30% | 4.59 | 29.20% | |
| Jordan Lyles | 38 | 12.20% | 4.64 | 26.60% | |
| Zach Plesac | 48 | 12.20% | 4.2 | 27.90% | |
| Kyle Hendricks | 34.2 | 12.10% | 4.45 | 26.70% | |
| Martin Perez | 39.2 | 12.10% | 4.43 | 28.00% | |
| Nick Pivetta | 42.2 | 11.60% | 4.62 | 25.70% | |
| Austin Gomber | 39.1 | 11.10% | 4.64 | 28.90% | |
| Patrick Corbin | 36.1 | 9.60% | 4.7 | 27.20% | |
| Tarik Skubal | 27.1 | 9.60% | 5.14 | 24.10% | |
| C-Tier | |||||
| Alex Cobb | 21.1 | 20.60% | 3.24 | 29.80% | |
| David Peterson | 33.1 | 20.10% | 3.42 | 31.20% | |
| 100 | Kwang-hyun Kim | 23 | 19.40% | 3.67 | 28.10% |
| Jakob Junis | 22.2 | 19.10% | 3.64 | 28.30% | |
| Ross Stripling | 21.1 | 18.20% | 3.87 | 27.20% | |
| Johnny Cueto | 27.1 | 15.30% | 4.1 | 26.50% | |
| Michael Wacha | 21.2 | 15.10% | 4.24 | 27.10% | |
| Mike Minor | 43 | 15.00% | 4.2 | 27.70% | |
| Dean Kremer | 31 | 14.90% | 4.3 | 25.90% | |
| Max Fried | 22 | 14.40% | 4.19 | 29.70% | |
| Spencer Turnbull | 25.1 | 14.30% | 4.01 | 24.50% | |
| Jesus Luzardo | 28 | 14.20% | 4.28 | 29.40% | |
| Brady Singer | 32.1 | 14.00% | 4.17 | 30.60% | |
| Jorge Lopez | 34 | 13.90% | 4.14 | 28.50% | |
| Jose Quintana | 21 | 13.80% | 4.52 | 28.00% | |
| Taylor Widener | 22.1 | 12.90% | 4.53 | 28.00% | |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 22.2 | 12.60% | 4.44 | 26.90% | |
| Triston McKenzie | 24.1 | 12.60% | 4.95 | 27.60% | |
| Trevor Williams | 33 | 12.00% | 4.38 | 26.90% | |
| Trevor Cahill | 34.2 | 11.90% | 3.97 | 26.30% | |
| Aaron Sanchez | 28.1 | 11.50% | 4.18 | 25.80% | |
| Erick Fedde | 32.1 | 11.30% | 4.57 | 24.10% | |
| Drew Smyly | 31 | 10.40% | 4.84 | 28.50% | |
| Justus Sheffield | 39 | 10.30% | 4.53 | 26.30% | |
| Jake Arrieta | 37.1 | 10.30% | 4.81 | 27.20% | |
| Matt Harvey | 39.1 | 10.30% | 4.62 | 22.80% | |
| Joe Ross | 35.2 | 10.20% | 4.7 | 29.50% | |
| German Marquez | 45.1 | 10.10% | 4.55 | 28.40% | |
| Marco Gonzales | 28.1 | 9.90% | 4.83 | 25.10% | |
| Chris Flexen | 39 | 9.30% | 4.68 | 20.30% | |
| Merrill Kelly | 44.2 | 9.10% | 4.77 | 24.50% | |
| Jeff Hoffman | 30.2 | 8.90% | 4.88 | 27.30% | |
| Bruce Zimmermann | 30 | 8.80% | 4.92 | 26.10% | |
| Stephen Strasburg | 10 | 8.70% | 5.2 | 29.50% | |
| Wil Crowe | 20 | 8.30% | 4.87 | 24.70% | |
| Chase Anderson | 31 | 8.00% | 5.05 | 27.10% | |
| Brad Keller | 33.1 | 8.00% | 4.85 | 24.30% | |
| Bryse Wilson | 18 | 7.60% | 4.94 | 28.60% | |
| Matt Shoemaker | 34 | 7.30% | 5.11 | 26.20% | |
| Jose Urena | 42.2 | 7.00% | 4.62 | 24.70% | |
| J.A. Happ | 31.2 | 7.00% | 5.24 | 21.90% | |
| Mitch Keller | 27.2 | 6.90% | 5.2 | 24.90% | |
| Antonio Senzatela | 34.2 | 6.80% | 4.71 | 23.70% | |
| Logan Allen | 15.2 | 6.70% | 5 | 24.30% | |
| Casey Mize | 38.2 | 6.70% | 4.85 | 25.60% | |
| Brett Anderson | 24 | 5.60% | 4.86 | 22.40% | |
| Matt Moore | 11 | 5.10% | 5.51 | 21.80% | |
| Carlos Martinez | 41.1 | 4.60% | 5.26 | 24.80% | |
| Jon Lester | 16 | 4.50% | 5.38 | 24.20% | |
| Kohei Arihara | 28.2 | 3.90% | 5.51 | 24.30% | |
| Chi Chi Gonzalez | 30.2 | 3.90% | 5.43 | 23.80% | |
| Daniel Castano | 17.1 | 3.80% | 5.47 | 22.10% | |
| Michael Fulmer | 12.2 | 3.60% | 5.09 | 27.10% | |
| Josh Fleming | 16.1 | 3.10% | 4.89 | 27.10% | |
| Justin Dunn | 29 | 3.10% | 5.94 | 25.50% | |
| Dallas Keuchel | 43.2 | 1.70% | 4.92 | 24.60% | |
| John Gant | 34.1 | 1.30% | 5.83 | 26.00% | |
| Riley Smith | 22 | 1.00% | 5.68 | 23.40% | |
| Zach Davies | 35.1 | 0.60% | 5.82 | 23.10% | |
| Chad Kuhl | 15.2 | -2.60% | 6.68 | 26.50% | |
Aye, you made it this far, didn’t ya. EverywhereBlair is, well, located at home right now. He’s a historian and lover of prog-metal. He enjoys a good sipping rum. When he’s not churning data and making fan fiction about Grey and Donkey Teeth, you can find him dreaming of shirtless pictures of Lance Lynn on Twitter @Everywhereblair.
