Well, well, well… A most EXCELLENT and joyous early February to all of you Razzball faithful! It’s your old pal, MarmosDad checking in for another summer of fantasy fun and tomfoolery on the best fantasy baseball site in the biz.
Speaking of which, and just to make sure I don’t forget to mention this later, if you haven’t checked in on our Razzball subscriptions yet…what are you waiting for? This has been mentioned before but it bears repeating. I’ve used Rudy’s War (Draft) Room for the past five seasons and it’s worth the price of admission for that access alone. I rode Rudy’s Excel-gilded steed to a 7th overall finish in last year’s Razzslam. Just imagine, you could ride that same magic en route to securing your league title in 2024 too.
But enough about 2023. When Truss asked me if I’d like to take the Top 100 Starting Pitcher reins from Blair this year, to be honest I was a bit intimidated and a wee bit apprehensive. Yes, I’ve been playing this game we all love since the inception of my AL-only home league in 1991, but I was still a bit gun-shy. I’m sure there are more than a few of you that wouldn’t remember back when fantasy baseball involved a lot of manual stat tracking, sifting through the back pages of Baseball Weekly, and questioning the projections put out by John Hunt. I suppose I can say that at least I have some years of experience behind me.
I do also regret to report that there is some more bad news for all of you EverywhereBlair fans. I have never been nominated for an FSWA award. BUT, I did win a pair of pretty high end binoculars from the Toronto Star in a word search contest when I was 12, so there’s that. I also do not have a PHD…in anything…but, I guess my initials do indicate that I’m an M.D. That certainly seems like a lateral comparison to me.
You could say I’m very different from the artist formerly known as your Top 100 SP writer. I guess you can call me “Nowhere Near Blair”. You can think of me as the Jo to Blair’s…um…Blair. But with less enthusiasm for motorcycles. And less disdain for Mrs. Garrett after she catches us stealing the school van and sneaking out for beers at the Chugalug bar.
Over the years, I’ve certainly learned to take the good…and take the bad…take them both, really…I suppose one could say, that’s just the facts of life.
A photo of the cast of the first Razzball sitcom (circa 1982)…and Mindy Cohn.
But enough with delaying the inevitable. The real reason you’re here is to have a peek at the Top 100 and get some answers to the question, “What exactly is this guy going to do with it this year?”
Well, for the first couple of weeks, I thought that it might make sense to lead out with Rudy’s Top 100 SP from the preseason projections and add in a couple of columns that would help you prepare/plan your selections of different arms as you get ready for your drafts.
The main order is based on Rudy’s top 100 from the preseason SP rankings. That is followed by each player’s projected Roto-earnings (R$), then two columns of ADP – one from the NFBC data and one from Fantrax, then I finish off with Grey’s Top 100 SP ranking and the projected round in which each pitcher is currently being drafted.
A couple of caveats…
- Rudy’s rankings change more often than my kids change their minds about what they want for dinner. In other words, it’s a lot…and it’s often. That’s not a bad thing, and it certainly isn’t a criticism. If anything it means that we’re constantly updating the rankings to reflect trades, changes in predicted playing time, or incorporating new information that affects the list. For this, it just means that some of the rankings at publication may be a bit different from where I had them in my final edits.
- As we get to those ‘lower ranked’ arms, the ADP differences open up the range of draft rounds by quite a bit. In some cases, there is as much as a 6-8 round difference between NFBC and Fantrax drafters. When in doubt, split the difference or just aim for those arms you like near the top end of their listed draft round(s).
- I’m not a robot lemming that is rigidly fixed to a defined ADP for my every move. That being said, with information like this being readily available, and assuming that more than a lot of your competition follows ADP to the letter like it’s a series of tablets sent down the mountain from the Roto-Gods, it would be pretty ignorant to not at least use the data as a reference point for research and/or planning out your team construct based on draft position.
- The only formula that I’ve been comfortable creating or tweaking over the past 10 years is the hypo-allergenic one that I heated up in a bottle warmer for the eldest mini-Marmo. If anyone knows what it’s like to have a baby with a casein allergy … let’s just say the projectile vomit wasn’t a high point in those middle-of-the-night feedings. As far as putting together any sort of formula is concerned, I can tell you how to put the lime in the coconut, but I won’t be throwing a bunch of fancy Math at you here.
- After a few weeks of listing off our preseason Top 100, and pointing out some bargains or arms to avoid in the Top 100 (or more), I’ll be shifting to listing rankings with reference to the player rater, but incorporating some familiar stats, and some good old fashioned Marmo wisdom to sort out any wrinkles. I liked Blair’s inclusion of K-BB% and SIERA last year so those will probably be some of the go-to columns I consider including when we shift from draft season to regular season games.
Just another word on stat categories. And I need to refer to Grey for this one. He mentioned on one of the recent pods that limiting walks is more important now than it ever was before. With the new rules implemented last year regarding the pitch clock and the subsequent increase of stolen bases, keeping guys off base is paramount in a starting pitcher’s quest for success. It might seem like a pretty straightforward observation, but I’ll try to focus on those guys that have the higher K/9 (or K%) and those that manage to put up the best BB% numbers as well if I need to look for any kind of tie-breaker when sorting through the rankings.
If I had to share my ‘philosophy’ or overall thoughts on starting pitching, with the stipulation that things are always dependent on your league format, (categories, keeper, redraft, roster size, FA format, etc.), I would start with something like this…
Good arms on great teams have a better chance at wins.
Good arms on bad teams have less of a chance at wins.
Great arms on great teams are your best bet, and often listed as a top 5 SP.
Great arms on bad teams are often very young, (aka not traded to or signed by the Dodgers…yet), and struggle with inconsistency and inexperience.
This also leads to a lack of solid innings or, if the team is bad enough, a general lack of run support. That’s not good if you’re hoping to get a starting pitcher that can rack up some wins.
Captain Obvious, reporting for duty
Essentially, I’d rather roll the dice on a good closer from a bad team than a good starter on a bad team. It’s easier to secure a 2-1 lead and throw one inning (9th), than leave with a 2-1 lead in the 6th inning only to watch your bullpen of Brad Hand and Emilio Pagan blow your chances at locking down that victory.
Like a few others have said before, (and I think Blair mentioned it more than once), it’s tough to rank a Top 100 of starting pitchers when potentially only less than half of the list could return positive value. Without even taking freak injuries or meltdowns into account, pitchers are the toughest to project because there are so many things that can affect their success (or failure). Health and effectiveness (or lack thereof) are an even bigger factor in a starting pitcher’s season than they are in a hitter’s.
For the next few weeks, I’ll try to spot some blips in the rankings and ADP to see if I can help provide an easy, one-stop-shop reference point for bargains and/or arms to avoid during our upcoming draft season based on draft position and over or underrated arms.
And if that doesn’t sound like something that will float your figurative boat, you can still count on more than a few old school music or 80’s sitcom references to help you through each week.
Based on 5X5 projections from 2024 15-team (Standard/NFBC) auction values/rankings (as of Sunday, Feb. 11)
| SP
RANK (overall) |
Name | R$ | NFBC
ADP |
FANTRAX
ADP |
GREY
RANK (SP) |
ROUND
(AVG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (2) | Spencer Strider | 36.3 | 8.49 | 6.95 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 (13) | Kevin Gausman | 29.4 | 30.53 | 25.86 | 5 | 2 |
| 3 (15) | Gerrit Cole | 28.8 | 13.73 | 11.54 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 (20) | Framber Valdez | 26.6 | 62.46 | 52.25 | 21 | 4/5 |
| 5 (23) | Zack Wheeler | 25.3 | 28.53 | 28.59 | 4 | 2 |
| 6 (26) | Pablo Lopez | 24.3 | 42.79 | 37.45 | 9 | 3 |
| 7 (27) | Aaron Nola | 24.0 | 53.62 | 44.48 | 17 | 3/4 |
| 8 (29) | George Kirby | 23.2 | 41.11 | 41.79 | 8 | 3 |
| 9 (33) | Luis Castillo | 22.6 | 31.94 | 31.46 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 (38) | Zac Gallen | 21.5 | 39.85 | 28.29 | 10 | 2/3 |
| 11 (39) | Corbin Burnes | 21.3 | 26.18 | 24.02 | 3 | 2 |
| 12 (42) | Logan Gilbert | 20.4 | 70.67 | 59.54 | 13 | 4/5 |
| 13 (43) | Blake Snell | 20.2 | 64.75 | 51.20 | 18 | 4/5 |
| 14 (44) | Max Fried | 20.2 | 64.99 | 56.23 | 20 | 4/5 |
| 15 (47) | Tarik Skubal | 19.9 | 54.60 | 46.81 | 14 | 4 |
| 16 (49) | Freddy Peralta | 19.7 | 60.33 | 54.67 | 7 | 4 |
| 17 (58) | Tyler Glasnow | 18.8 | 44.32 | 44.60 | 19 | 3 |
| 18 (61) | Logan Webb | 18.6 | 65.25 | 39.43 | 11 | 4/5 |
| 19 (65) | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 17.8 | 58.45 | 56.39 | 16 | 4 |
| 20 (70) | Zach Eflin | 17.5 | 89.94 | 81.01 | 22 | 6 |
| 21 (71) | Kodai Senga | 17.5 | 71.33 | 51.78 | 15 | 4/5 |
| 22 (76) | Joe Ryan | 17.2 | 94.67 | 77.29 | 27 | 6/7 |
| 23 (84) | Justin Verlander | 16.4 | 124.31 | 125.38 | 39 | 9 |
| 24 (92) | Carlos Rodon | 15.3 | 170.64 | 200.69 | 62 | 12-14 |
| 25 (94) | Jose Berrios | 15.1 | 169.49 | 126.34 | 44 | 9-12 |
| 26 (98) | Sonny Gray | 14.9 | 124.16 | 94.80 | 26 | 7-9 |
| 27 (101) | Jordan Montgomery | 14.8 | 146.50 | 160.78 | 41 | 10/11 |
| 28 (106) | Jesus Luzardo | 14.4 | 88.80 | 69.99 | 12 | 5/6 |
| 29 (108) | Shane Bieber | 14.2 | 174.41 | 141.74 | 60 | 10-12 |
| 30 (110) | Chris Sale | 14.0 | 169.58 | 165.53 | 58 | 11/12 |
| 31 (111) | Justin Steele | 14.0 | 105.65 | 75.42 | 24 | 6/7 |
| 32 (112) | Cole Ragans | 14.0 | 111.76 | 95.78 | 37 | 7/8 |
| 33 (113) | Bobby Miller | 14.0 | 82.38 | 86.05 | 30 | 6 |
| 34 (128) | Kyle Bradish | 13.2 | 96.33 | 76.79 | 23 | 6/7 |
| 35 (133) | Grayson Rodriguez | 13.0 | 71.71 | 71.00 | 29 | 5 |
| 36 (134) | Chris Bassitt | 12.9 | 138.65 | 120.04 | 38 | 9/10 |
| 37 (136) | Hunter Greene | 12.8 | 137.27 | 118.06 | 35 | 8/9 |
| 38 (138) | Merrill Kelly | 12.6 | 152.39 | 118.87 | 42 | 8-13! |
| 39 (141) | Joe Musgrove | 12.5 | 111.80 | 99.41 | 36 | 7/8 |
| 40 (151) | Eduardo Rodriguez | 11.3 | 191.29 | 152.41 | 40 | 11-13 |
| 41 (154) | Dylan Cease | 11.2 | 110.37 | 75.53 | 34 | 6-8 |
| 42 (160) | Hunter Brown | 10.8 | 190.19 | 148.67 | 46 | 10-13 |
| 43 (162) | Yu Darvish | 10.7 | 216.48 | 176.70 | 93 | 12-15 |
| 44 (163) | Mitch Keller | 10.6 | 167.72 | 124.29 | 32 | 9-11 |
| 45 (165) | Eury Perez | 10.6 | 77.60 | 80.87 | 25 | 6 |
| 46 (166) | Tanner Bibee | 10.5 | 115.83 | 108.74 | 31 | 8 |
| 47 (182) | Nathan Eovaldi | 9.8 | 204.45 | 157.05 | 51 | 11-14 |
| 48 (185) | Lance Lynn | 9.7 | 312.27 | 312.69 | 103 | 20 |
| 49 (188) | Charlie Morton | 9.3 | 240.82 | 208.16 | 52 | 14-16 |
| 50 (194) | Nestor Cortes | 8.9 | 282.34 | 238.99 | 69 | 16-18 |
| 51 (199) | Griffin Canning | 8.7 | 307.18 | 258.85 | 94 | 17-21 |
| 52 (205) | Bailey Ober | 8.5 | 164.65 | 162.34 | 43 | 11 |
| 53 (207) | Lucas Giolito | 8.4 | 216.44 | 158.88 | 61 | 11-15 |
| 54 (212) | Nick Lodolo | 8.2 | 246.49 | 208.79 | 64 | 14-17 |
| 55 (215) | Cristian Javier | 8.1 | 175.36 | 158.31 | 56 | 11/12 |
| 56 (217) | Reid Detmers | 8.1 | 243.85 | 197.50 | 78 | 14-16 |
| 57 (222) | Yusei Kikuchi | 7.8 | 249.91 | 301.71 | 63 | 17-20 |
| 58 (226) | Braxton Garrett | 7.5 | 192.26 | 183.95 | 28 | 13 |
| 59 (227) | Jon Gray | 7.1 | 361.45 | 254.33 | 90 | 17-21 |
| 60 (231) | Nick Pivetta | 6.8 | 187.49 | 179 | 54 | 13 |
| 61 (232) | Andrew Abbott | 6.8 | 262.50 | 281.63 | 77 | 18/19 |
| 62 (244) | Shane Baz | 6.2 | 193.80 | 186.14 | 47 | 13 |
| 63 (245) | Marcus Stroman | 6.1 | 283.31 | 311.08 | 73 | 19-21 |
| 64 (246) | Aaron Civale | 6.1 | 209.71 | 214.77 | 53 | 14/15 |
| 65 (251) | Shota Imanaga | 5.9 | 228.72 | 171.50 | 76 | 12-16 |
| 66 (254) | Gavin Williams | 5.8 | 159.75 | 144.97 | 57 | 10/11 |
| 67 (256) | Kenta Maeda | 5.7 | 252.61 | 235.5 | 65 | 16/17 |
| 68 (258) | Brayan Bello | 5.7 | 228.71 | 197.52 | 80 | 14-16 |
| 69 (259) | Bryce Miller | 5.5 | 187.69 | 170.78 | 45 | 12/13 |
| 70 (260) | Kyle Gibson | 5.3 | 521.91 | 312.96 | 126 | 22-35! |
| 71 (261) | Bryan Woo | 5.2 | 190.84 | 182.73 | 48 | 13 |
| 72 (273) | Ranger Suarez | 4.7 | 426.91 | 282.14 | 98 | 19-29 |
| 73 (275) | Emmet Sheehan | 4.5 | 263.00 | 315.33 | 131 | 18-21 |
| 74 (276) | Miles Mikolas | 4.4 | 514.37 | 328.95 | 102 | 22-35 |
| 75 (277) | Sean Manaea | 4.1 | 474.54 | 352.18 | 101 | 24-32 |
| 76 (286) | JP Sears | 3.6 | 495.66 | 316.22 | 113 | 22-33 |
| 77 (289) | Kyle Harrison | 3.5 | 277.15 | 262.28 | 83 | 18/19 |
| 78 (299) | Andrew Heaney | 2.7 | 481.70 | 339.19 | 116 | 23-33 |
| 79 (301) | Dean Kremer | 2.7 | 405.04 | 262.56 | 71 | 18-27 |
| 80 (303) | Reese Olson | 2.7 | 269.92 | 259.43 | 79 | 18 |
| 81 (308) | Walker Buehler | 2.5 | 111.17 | 96.13 | 33 | 7/8 |
| 82 (311) | Brandon Pfaadt | 2.4 | 214.47 | 212.23 | 81 | 15 |
| 83 (312) | Seth Lugo | 2.3 | 275.66 | 241.16 | 55 | 17-19 |
| 84 (314) | Dane Dunning | 2.3 | 480.96 | 348.6 | 72 | 24-32 |
| 85 (320) | Steven Matz | 2.1 | 482.50 | 379.24 | 99 | 26-33 |
| 86 (327) | Cristopher Sanchez | 1.9 | 253.75 | 238.06 | 66 | 16/17 |
| 87 (328) | Triston McKenzie | 1.9 | 239.60 | 169.1 | 67 | 12-16 |
| 88 (330) | Frankie Montas | 1.5 | 428.97 | 357.89 | 105 | 24-29 |
| 89 (334) | Taj Bradley | 1.3 | 266.23 | 231.09 | 84 | 16-18 |
| 90 (335) | Jose Quintana | 1.2 | 520.90 | 340.86 | 100 | 23-35 |
| 91 (340) | Tanner Houck | 1.1 | 544.58 | 319.15 | 135 | 22-37 |
| 92 (350) | Brady Singer | 0.9 | 546.44 | 360.26 | N/R | 24-37 |
| 93 (351) | MacKenzie Gore | 0.9 | 315.55 | 314.85 | 75 | 21 |
| 94 (352) | James Paxton | 0.8 | 455.51 | 356.67 | 118 | 24-31 |
| 95 (358) | Patrick Sandoval | 0.7 | 539.76 | 353.93 | 127 | 24-36 |
| 95 (359) | Logan Allen | 0.7 | 444.12 | 317.71 | 86 | 22-30 |
| 97 (360) | Louie Varland | 0.7 | 355.10 | 342.95 | 89 | 23/24 |
| 98 (368) | Luis Severino | 0.4 | 354.90 | 321.14 | 92 | 22-24 |
| 99 (378) | Trevor Rogers | 0.2 | 463.69 | 327.40 | 120 | 22-31 |
| 100 (388) | Michael Wacha | -0.1 | 282.04 | 254.63 | 70 | 17-19 |
The next 20 : ($0 or negative value) : John Means, Alex Cobb, Jameson Taillon, Ryan Pepiot, Jakob Junis, Michael King (50th – Grey), Clarke Schmidt (85th – Grey), Edward Cabrera, Mike Clevinger, Colin Rea, Taijuan Walker, Kutter Crawford (74th – Grey), Max Scherzer (59th – Grey), Jack Flaherty, DL Hall (88th – Grey), Bryce Elder (104th – Grey), Kyle Hendricks, Chris Paddack (95th – Grey), Chase Silseth, Keaton Winn, Jordan Hicks (97th – Grey).
Other missing notables : Alek Manoah (123/322.16; 115th – Grey), Anthony Desclafani (125), Ross Stripling (129), Zack Littell (130), Michael Soroka (135), Josiah Gray (138; 87th – Grey), Matt Manning (141), Robbie Ray (145), Ricky Tiedemann (155), AJ Smith-Shawver (156/326.65), Ryne Nelson (175), Matthew Liberatore (176), Casey Mize (180), Carlos Carrasco (217), Brandon Woodruff (271), Shane McClanahan (276), Cal Quantrill (366) {of 369}
FANTRAX – missed the list : Mason Miller (265.74), Graham Ashcraft (320.77), Paul Skenes (331.63; 106th – Grey), Ricky Tiedemann (343.19; 107th – Grey), Jacob DeGrom (398.04; 120th – Grey).
Just a few notes to consider when you have a look through it all…
I initially built this last week. In the time that passed from then until now, there were a few points of interest I wanted to share.
BIGGEST DUMPS : With apologies to Cal Raleigh, the biggest dumpers (in value, not pants size) were Clayton Kershaw and JP Sears.
Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw was ranked 40th last week. Now he’s been moved down 100 spots to 140. The move is much less about him re-signing with the Dodgers and much more about the story this week that he “should be ready this summer”. The actual quote from Kershaw had him referring to a “July-ish or August-ish” return date. That’s enough to drop him 100-ish spots for sure.
JP Sears – Sears drop was not as dramatic, but it certainly was noticeable. He only slid a dozen spots from 64 down to the current 76, but the R$ was nearly halved as it got chopped from $6.5 to $3.6. Ignoring the giant pachyderm in the room…
…I assume this has a lot to do with Sears’ skills deterioration in the second half and a crummy K-BB% that dipped from 18% to 11% over that span. And maybe that his team will struggle to give him 3 runs of support…total…over his first 10 starts.
Triston McKenzie – This one isn’t a huge drop in ranking or even a condemnation of his skills. Although, I would point out I’ve said for a while now that I don’t trust a pitcher who is built like a coat hanger after it’s been dismantled to unclog a toilet. (See, also : Sale, Chris). In all honesty, this one is more about the juxtaposition of McKenzie’s former 78th spot with his current 87th place. I could explain further, but I think Fenster can be more precise.
Ruthless Rudy strikes again. “Can ya hear me in the baaaack?!”
BIGGEST JUMPS : But it’s not all stormy clouds and lost kittens. There were a couple of biggest jumps to point out as well.
Max Fried – Fried jumped up in the rankings from 21st last week to the top 15 this week. He settles in at 14 with a healthy boost to the R$ as well. Last week’s projection of $14.3 has been juiced up to $20.2.
Nick Lodolo – Not just smile emojis and lolz for this one. Lodolo jumped up to 54th this week after starting around 71st just a few days ago. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of the other Reds rankings follow suit and pick up some steam through draft season.
OOF!
The following pitchers dropped off the Top 100 this week (former ranking in parentheses) : Clayton Kershaw (40), Ryan Pepiot (88), John Means (91), Mike Clevinger (96), Jameson Taillon (98), Edward Cabrera (100).
WHEE!
The following pitchers shot up to crack the Top 100 this week : Dane Dunning (84), Frankie Montas (88), Tanner Houck (91), Patrick Sandoval (94), Logan Allen (95).
That’s all for this week! Have fun perusing the chart, and come back next week when I give you some buys and bargains based on some of the data that I have set up here. Drop some comments in the chat if you’re feeling extra fired up about some of the names I do (or don’t) have here, too. Have a great week and for those of you drafting your teams already, good luck!
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