Please see our player page for Miles Mikolas to see projections for today, the next 7 days and rest of season as well as stats and gamelogs designed with the fantasy baseball player in mind.

Not Your Grandfather’s Top 100 Starting Pitchers…

Overreaction is part of human and donkey nature. Recency bias is unavoidable. But in a world where those who adapt not only survive, but thrive, could the risks of overreaction be outweighed by the rewards of adaptation? Good question. You have a lot of good questions.

I remember a few years back when Grandpa-Donk smuggled a three pound rib-eye steak out of the grocery store under his shirt, even though he had $200 burning a hole in his pocket. Did my family overreact and make gramps come live with us? Of course not; we all had a nice laugh over some grilled rib-eye and went on with our lives.

But when Gramps-Donk caused a 12 car pile up on Dixie Highway, without a license, in a car he “borrowed” from his neighbor, that’s when we knew it was time to make a move. So we did what any good family would do and threw the old goat into that nursing home from Happy Gilmore. Adapt and thrive.

I’ll now relate this insensitive and poorly thought out analogy to starting pitchers in fantasy baseball. After a month of overreacting to mostly meaningless spring pitching performances, we finally have a two-start regular season sample for many pitchers; the March days of experimenting with drugs and new pitches are over, these guys are now trying their best to get hitters out. Two-starts may seem like a small sample, but in an age when most starting pitchers will only reach 25-30 starts, two-starts is actually 6-8% of their season. It’s time to start reassessing.

Before getting into some of my early season risers and fallers, I do want to address the Bartolo Colon sized elephant in the room: The re-juiced baseballs. Small sample sizes and that’s what she said jokes aside, I fully believe we’re headed for record power numbers this season. What does this mean for us as fantasy baseballers? I think it means the elite top tier arms are even more valuable than they already were. With a surge in power we can expect increased pitching rates across the board, meaning a guy who gives you 200 IP of sub 3.00 ERA can really move the needle. Just some food for thought as we monitor the ever changing landscape.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

There was a time when I thought Freddy Peralta (8 IP, 0 ER, 1 hit, zero walks, 11 Ks) was merely a starter.  A guy who took the ball every fifth day, stared in at the catcher, shook off a sign or two and scratched his balls.  Not like a Gaylord.  Perry, not, um, yeah, Perry.  Yesterday, we (me) gained a newfound appreciation for FP Saintdamnvelo.  His command was gorge, and I’m engorged.  In fact, I’m not typing this with my fingers.  It’s whether he can replicate that command going forward like he’s a replicate in one of those sci-fi movies with replicates.  I don’t know sci-fi, so you have to figure out your own analogy.  Sci-fi is for nerds!  That’s why I play fantasy baseball.  Either way, you have to pick up Freddy Peralta after yesterday’s start to see if he can build off it.  If Peralta continues that no-walk command, he’s a potential breakout.  Speaking of breakouts (can you believe the ease of that segue), Matthew Boyd dropped the ew, dunked 13 Ks on the Yankees and that’s straight Matth.  Like his most famous fantasy baseball owner would say, “Yeah, Boyd!”  Damn right, Flavor Flav!  Matthew Boyd (6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 13 Ks, ERA at 3.18) leads the majors in Ks.  El oh cmon.  He’s the first Tigers starter to start the season with back-to-back 10+ K games.  This wasn’t the A lineup for the Yankees, but more “a Yankees lineup.”  Still, I’m buying partly because of FOMO, and since he had 26 swinging strikes, i.e., he was fooling them real good.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Hello, Genie, I have three wishes for this baseball season?  My first wish is “No one I own get hurt.”  I didn’t buy Kevin Kiermaier, Steven Souza or Troy Tulowitzki, so I made your job easy for you, great, powerful Genie.  My 2nd wish is “Everyone I own do well.”  I drafted Trea Turner, Luke Voit, Enrique Hernandez, so, really, I’m doing much of the heavy lifting for this wish too.  My 3rd and final wish is “All 3rd base coaches send runners home by doing The OA interpretative dance.”  Thanking you in advance, Genie.  Wait a second, you’re not a genie, you’re Bartolo Colon in Blue Man Group paint.  Damn you!  So, we’re off and running for another great season, just like the Dodgers’ offense.  Enrique Hernandez (2-for-3, 3 runs, 3 RBIs) hit two home runs.  Ya know what, maybe Kiké does love me.  Next up, Joc Pederson (3-for-5, 3 runs, 4 RBIs) hit two homers, as he hit leadoff.  A double dong day from Wong and Joc?  Baseball, do you stuff your pants?  Also, Max Muncy (1-for-4, 2 RBIs) hit his first homer, saying, “Hey, don’t forget Grey wrote a sleeper post about me?”  Then Cody Bellinger (2-for-4, 2 runs) hit his 1st homer; he’s not Cody Malinger!  Actually, I’m convinced Dave Roberts could field any lineup and they would score more runs than their opponent for at least 90+ games, especially when they’re going up against some of these teams.  Wilmer Flores (1-for-4, 1 run) was the three hole hitter on the Diamondbacks.  I love Wilmer and his ubiquitous tears like he’s reading The Notebook, but there’s a bunch of MLB lineups out there that just are not good.  Also, in this game, Corey Seager (1-for-3) hit his 1st homer and Austin Barnes (3-for-4, 2 runs) hit his first homer, because BASEBALL’S BACK!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Welcome fantasy baseball aficionados to my first Razzball article. Over the next few weeks, we’ll be going over things like streaming strategies and how to win a Yahoo Pro League but we’re going to start by introducing some bounce-back candidates. Finding bounce-backs is one of the keys to being successful in fantasy baseball, as that can make an average team an elite one. That’s one of the major reasons why I drafted Trevor Story last season. Looking at his peripheral statistics from a disappointing 2016-17 season and factoring that in with his ballpark and price made him one of the best values (RD 8-9) in drafts last year. He’s all the way up to the second round this season and finding a guy who can have that sort of jump is critical in building your team. The main goal here is to draft someone who will outplay their price tag and these candidates are all in fantastic situations to do just that.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Do you remember the last time you swung and missed?

Maybe it happened at your beer league softball game? Or maybe it was during last week’s company-wide meeting when you thought you’d tell that funny story about the peanut butter thing but screwed up the beginning, and nobody laughed—not even Amber from accounting who giggles at everything—so you sat down all hot faced, feeling stupid all day?

Or maybe you’re thinking of that day you finally asked out Amber from Accounting, and that time she did laugh?

Nobody likes to swing and miss, is all I’m saying. And nobody likes that awkward what-what of trying to save a story from a bad opening line. Here’s some baseball-related proof:

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*rubbing hands together*  This is where things get interesting.  Anyone could tell you Scherzer, deGrom, yadda, blabbedy, blue are top 20 starters.  I could ask some bean counter in Modesto, California who the top 20 starters and he’d know, and he counts beans!  Anyone can count beans!  Honestly, why is he counting beans?  Seems like a waste of time.  Any hoo!  The top 40 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball is a bit like the top 20 for 2019 fantasy baseball.  It could go dozens of ways.  This is the way I went.  Here’s Steamer’s 2019 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2019 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers.  All projections listed are mine and I mention where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball:

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All the final 2018 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters are done.  For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball.  This is NOT for 2019 (caps for those who can’t read titles; supposedly it’s easier to read caps, I have my doubts).  This is a recap.  Actually, RECAP, literally.  Will these affect next year’s rankings?  Sure.  But not entirely.  To recapitulate, these rankings are from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  We’re (me’re) using it to fairly gauge our (my) preseason rankings.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

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Welcome to part two of my four-part #2EarlyMocks draft series. If you’re looking for part one you can find it here: 2EarlyMock Draft Part 1. In part one, we covered the sexy rounds — one through seven. Not too many risks or reaches in those rounds, you grab your studs and stars and reap the rewards. But in rounds eight through 14 is where owners are starting to take risks and grab their sleepers, rookies and potential bounce back players. I’ll be comparing the draft position of these players during this draft to their cumulative ADP on Fantasy Pros. This cumulative ADP includes the 288 players from ESPN’s ADP, the 999 players from Fantrax’s ADP plus data from CBS, Yahoo, RT Sports and NFBC draft results. Let’s get right into it:

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Emerging from your parents’ basement, blocking the sun with your hand, “Mother, did you see wash my underwear?  Mother?”  You shake her shoulder and her head falls off and the skull rolls into the kitchen.  You casually pick up the head, “Mother, did you do my laundry I asked for back in March?”  You move your mother’s jaw bones, “Yes, sonny boy.  How did you do in your fantasy league?”  “Thank you for asking, mother.  I achieved great success.  Let’s tell father.”  You turn to a sack of potatoes wearing an “I’m with stupid” t-shirt and glued-on corn cob pipe.  “Father, we have won our fantasy league.  It was great fun.  Now it’s back to spending time with the family.”  And that’s how you incorporated yourself back into family life.  Well, we can’t all be winners like that gent, but it is time to lick thy wounds if you lost and razz thy neighbors if you won.  So, hopefully, let’s razz on, Razzers.  Unless your league counts game 163, then it’s still on like Steve Wiebe playing Donkey Kong!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

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Sample sizes are everything, or so I’ve heard.  From other people.  Not about me.  I’m personally told sample sizes mean nothing.  Gently reminded, as I’m also reminded, it happens to everyone.  What is ‘it?’  Damn, that’s deep, which is not what I hear often when discussing sample sizes, but Tim Beckham (2-for-4, 3 RBIs) went deep twice yesterday (11th and 12th homer).  I’m talking about sample sizes more than a bachelorette party because Beckham had done nothing up until yesterday’s game.  At this point in the season, it’s not what has a guy done this month or past week, but what did he do yesterday and what can he do today?  Two homers tell me a guy is locked in.  *Beckham mimes being in a box* Perfect!  I’d grab him, sample size be damned.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?