I’m sure many of you have spent countless hours pouring over Grey’s 2021 fantasy baseball rankings to see who he’s got way higher than anyone else. Grey’s rankings are great but they’re focused on categories so they don’t tell the whole picture for points leagues. For example, average isn’t important for points. Yes a higher average means more hits but you also get points for walks as well. What we’re really looking for is total bases. I still highly recommend that you check out Grey’s thoughts because he knows what he’s doing, but mostly he’s pretty entertaining.
Now onto points leagues. I crunched some numbers behind the scenes to see who should get shifted in the ranks. Basically made my own simplified version of malamoney’s spreadsheet using the Razzball/Steamer projections and what seems to be the standard scoring system. The result is some cold hard data on who’s going to do what this season.
Here are some of my thoughts and I have included the new top 100 below.
So what does this actually tell us? It tells us who you absolutely should draft at every pick. Just kidding, this is merely a guide. These numbers are for the scoring format listed above. Your league may have different settings so make sure you check those out. But this list does show who to target. The gap between players can be as small as a tenth of a point. In other words, nothing. Take the guy you want, it’s your team and fantasy is tons more fun if you draft the guys you like.
There is about a 60/40 split in favor of hitters in the top 100 and the highest ranked reliever (Josh Hader) doesn’t make the cut, checking in at 136. Again, fill your RP spots if you have them, and go for starters the rest of the way. The same goes for the other position not appearing in the top 100, catcher. Don’t fall into the positional scarcity trap.
The keystone is shallow relative to other positions but does offer some strong options. I’d like to come out of drafts with one of the top guys if possible.
Fernando Tatis Jr falls out of the top 10 and Juan Soto takes over the top spot for batters. Pitchers take the top three spots but I stand by passing over them in favor of the top bats. The top arms may outscore the top bats but I’d rather take the consistency and daily production of a hitter to anchor my roster.
Cory Seager is the top option at short. I was surprised to see how low Trevor Story came in with his projections putting him similarly to Jose Altuve. Bo Bichette is another popular name who takes a big tumble.
Adalberto Mondesi drops all the way out of the top 100. This really highlights the differences between 5×5 and points. I told you last time that he wasn’t worth a second round pick but I’ll admit that I was shocked he fell this low. He goes from an absolute guy must-have to no way you’re taking him. And it makes sense. Mondesi is a guy who can single handedly keep you competitive in steals, but steals don’t matter in points leagues until the scoring rewards them more. Also outside the top 100 is Luis Robert. As much as I want to take him everywhere and think he could be in line to beat his projections, there are probably safer picks for where you would need to take him.
My pitcher targets would be guys like Yu Darvish, Brandon Woodruff, and Jack Flaherty. The projections put them in the second tier which is still ace territory. I’d feel great about having one of them as my number one starter, ideally after picking up a couple impact bats. There’s more value to be found further down the list as well.
So there you have it, the top 100 for points leagues. Peruse away and then dominate your drafts. As always hit me up here or on Twitter @deltaxi1842.
|15||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||OF||475|
|27||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SD||SS||439.7|
|28||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||1B||433.3|
|39||DJ LeMahieu||NYY||1B/2B/ 3B||417|
|51||Jeff McNeil||NYM||2B/3B/ OF||399.3|
|78||Lance McCullers Jr.||HOU||SP||367.8|
|89||Max Muncy||LAD||1B/2B/ 3B||362.5|