Please see our player page for Marcell Ozuna to see projections for today, the next 7 days and rest of season as well as stats and gamelogs designed with the fantasy baseball player in mind.

The season is teetering on the edge. I mean the absolute razor’s edge. The commissioner is rattling his sabers about canceling the season in light of the challenge of Covid-19. But as of now baseball is still being played all over the county, even with some games getting postponed. There will be 7 inning makeup games and more and more chaos everywhere. There are players coming and going from the IL, players treating a positive test as if it’s nothing and others going out on paternity leave. On the positive side there will be playoff chases galore for the whole season with more than half the league going! With all that said we do have a Top 100.

You can find last week’s list here. Here are some of the movers for this week, followed by the list:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

On the one hand, it’s unbelievable that Opening Week happened at all. On the other, it’s a mad mad mad mad world Sid Caesar would love. Juan Soto, you’re out! Clayton Kershaw, you’re out! Anthony Rendon, you’re out, but Mike Trout is back in! We’ve got masked players sometime, then other times standing next to each other chatting and laughing at first base. We’ve got players spitting, as if that wasn’t going to happen. We’ve got Angel Hernadez strike zones when we were hoping beyond hope that he would be one that would opt out, instead of one of the few we would depend on. As will likely be the case all season there will be big shifts in this week’s rankings. On top of all the above info the Yankees look healthy (for now), and the Blue Jays are settling Buffalo. What?! I’m bumping the Jays just because they’ll feel a little better now actually having a home. Even more because most of the team had a great time in Buffalo in the not too distant past. Also because, I mean, I love Duff’s, beef on weck, the Anchor Bar and tailgating at Bills games, but there’s much less of a chance of catching Covid in the quiet nightlife of Buffalo.

With an expanded playoffs you would think all the players who have half a chance would stop messing around and get to work, but you never can tell. You can find last week’s controversial list here. Here are some of the movers for this week, followed by the list:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

So, how’s everyone doing after four days of games? Still early, right? Actually, it’s not early. It’s never early this year. Early took the first train out of the station with your wife and dog. Say goodbye to your life, Early walked off with it. Four days this year is approximately three weeks into a regular season. Four days into the season this year is a cherry and whipped topping into this sundae, and one scoop in there might be chocolate chip mint, which you have to skip because it tastes like sugary toothpaste. One guy whose entire Sunday was chocolate chip mint is Justin Verlander. Sounds like he’s out for the season with a forearm strain, which is usually a precursor for much worse news. Won’t speculate what this means for his career, but if this is the last time he plays, it truly bums me out, even if I never wanted to own him. He was glorious to watch, in and out of the bathroom mirror with Kate. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

At this point I feel a little like a repeating Kevin McCallister, screaming over and over again as I splash the stinging liquid of not stop Covid-19 news against my fantasy baseball face. How are we supposed to keep up? By the time this work is published three more Top 100 players could be struck down, throwing their 60 game season into question. And since all these players are in their home areas for summer camp, when the virus is spiking in that area, particularly Houston, it can throw camp completely out of whack.

As you can probably guess, Yordan Alvarez coming down with the virus and Houston’s cases spiking has slipped Astros batters down. Other individual cases have an effect here and there, and Freddy Freeman is finally having an effect on Braves batters despite coming back. There was also a trade on Thursday that has the smallest effect here. Also, Yasiel Puig doesn’t quite make it. Yup, the virus got him too.

If you are wondering about the particulars of the list a big change was made last week. That includes some park effect fine tuning, and in particular why I have Mike Trout ranked so low. You can find last week’s list here. All that being said, let’s look at some of this week’s movers:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Camp is in full swing, and the initial wave of Covid-19 diagnoses and Opt Outs have taken place. We are not doctors, we only play them on fantasy baseball sites. Seriously, Covid-19 throws a massive shadow and we’re all doing our best. As far as the rankings go, our fearless leader had some big news on Friday:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Now that there is a planned baseball season, we can rejoice because fantasy baseball drafts have resumed. Concomitantly, there is new ADP data to analyze, giving me an excuse to ignore my loved ones and write about fake baseball.

That said, I do have some valuable insight to offer. Using only drafts conducted since the announcement of the 60-game season, I want to discuss outfielders selected between picks 80 and 120 and compare their ATC projections to find some hidden value. The reason being that, when you’re in a draft, you should take the hitter that represents the best value on the board regardless of his ADP.

Say, for example,

  1. you have pick 80
  2. outfielders of ADP 71 and 91 are available
  3. neither will likely be on the board for your next pick
  4. and you’ve assessed that the hitter with the ADP of 91 provides more relative value, then
  5. you should draft 91, even though it will feel less satisfying.

Of course, you need to know who represents greater relative value to make that decision, which is where I come in.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Welcome to the re RE started 2020 Summer Camp preseason Top 100. It’s Corona’s world and we’re all just living in it. To wit: There is no specific time period for the Covid-19 IL. Two weeks? A month? Considering it takes two negative tests to come back, and even still medical science has more questions than answers, a positive test could turn the #1 pick into a non factor for your team. In an eight or nine week season, two weeks or more on the shelf is devastating. With that in mind, and Rudy’s alchemy, we’ve got some surprises. Keep in mind health and the Universal DH play a huge role, along with divisional changes.

With that said, once again it’s seamhead heaven, boys of summer katnip, and time to put away the hot stove. Of course we’re picking up our junior health care specialist kits, but I digress. Summer camp baseball has just started. Beer is flowing from Fenway Park to Anaheim Stadium and lazy afternoons at your house, or if you’re lucky your deck, are in vogue.

Finally, let’s be honest, no one truly knows what’s going to happen. So here’s the new pre-season Top 100.”Last” is tracking where the hitters were in the last Top 100 of March of 2020. “Change” is a change from that last 2020 ranking.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

With baseball still on the proverbial shelf, most offseason concerns we had for injuries are gone.  We’ll cover a few small updates here today as we hopefully move towards some number of games this season.

The biggest news over the last few weeks was with Chris Archer.  The Pirates righty was shut down for surgery to correct “Thoracic Outlet Syndrome” this is the same issue that sidelined Matt Harvey earlier in his career.  Archer was already a shell of his former self, and really only someone you’d be taking a late round flyer on or picking up in a 2 start week hoping for some K’s, but this puts him on the shelf until the beginning of the ’21 season at best.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Hello, again. Time to wrap this baby on up with the NL East. I don’t know what else to write here that I haven’t in the other two pieces. Check out the NL West Edition and the NL Central Edition if you haven’t already.

Just made myself another old fashioned, the wife is reading, and the kiddo is asleep. Let’s do it to it.

Atlanta Braves

Probably not gonna surprise anyone with this pick: Austin Riley. Riley was having himself a very nice spring, but so was Johan Camargo, his competition at third. Now the DH solves all that – let the slugging prospect, well, slug. Camargo is the better glove, so there you go.

Riley showed glimpses of serious power last season, bashing 18 homers in only 80 games. My lazy and mathematically-challenged brain would double that to 36 HR in 160 games just to give a very rough idea of what we’re looking at. Of course, that’s not sound fantasy advice nor very accurate given those were his first 80 games ever in the majors. We gotta look deeper. Deep dives are king! I’m no expert delver, but let’s give this a shot anyway. He slashed .226/.279/.471 with Atlanta, but hit for a much better average all through the minors. I know that’s not very telling, but I like to at least see if someone has shown ability to hit for average somewhere, sometime. The power last season was nuts – 127 games total and 33 homers. Looking at just his AAA numbers, in 2018 he hit 12 HR in 324 PAs, but launched 15 HR in just 194 PAs last year. Then came up to the bigs and hit 18 more. That’s quite the progression in just a year’s time. His isolated power was .182 in AAA in 2018, which is pretty solid (.200 is the baseline for “great” according to FanGraphs, though it fluctuates a little relative to league averages in a given year). Anyway, his ISO spiked to .333 in 2019, which is off-the-charts good. Yes, we’re judging these numbers off fewer PAs than FanGraphs recommends, but whatever. You can see the power is there. Riley did his best Aristides Aquino when getting the call last season, slashing .324/.368/.732 with nine homers and 25 RBI in his first 18 games. Buuut in his final 62 games, he had almost the exact same production (nine HR, 24 RBI) and a yucky, yucky slash (.192/.249/.379).

The 2019 AAA Riley struck out 20.1% of the time (his best anywhere) and walked 10.3% of the time; but alas, 2019 MLB Riley struck out 36.4% of the time and walked only 5.4% of the time. He still managed a .245 ISO in the majors, which is very damn good, but the rest of his offensive metrics definitely took a nose dive as the year went on. The batted ball metrics are great: 13.7% barrel rate, 44.6% hard-hit rate, and a 20.6-degree launch angle. Riley had 7.7% barrels per plate appearance, which would be top 50 in the league if he qualified. Better than Ketel Marte, Rafael Devers, Gleyber Torres, Max Muncy, and like a ton others, of course. Those are just some big fantasy studs that stood out.

I think you all get the picture. Riley has the chops to be a fantasy force as is, but he’s got improvements he needs to make. If a pitch is in the zone, dude swings like every time (okay, 80.5%) but also chased almost 38% of the time. If he can keep barreling balls and show some more patience, then whoa nelly. They’ve got Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, and now this guy?!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

With the world continuing to be in dumpster fire mode, I figured I’d write about things that I love. No, not my kids (although this week we learned to ride a bike without training wheels, flew a kite, lost a tooth, and watched The Sandlot for the first time – pretty epic week), but two players that I’ve fallen hard (phrasing) for – Marcell Ozuna and Nick Castellanos. Both players have similar ADPs, with Castellanos being at 83.4 and Ozuna landing at 88.6 (average ADPs from ESPN, NFBC, Yahoo, and CBS). Both players also have new homes that feature good lineups in hitters parks and the sum of the parts has my pants feeling a little tight….oh wait, that’s just the quarantine-15 that I’ve put on. Let’s dive into both players and see if we can find a clear winner.

Please, blog, may I have some more?