The last couple weeks in this space we’ve taken time to rank guys around the infield and in the outfield. That, plus the title of this piece, probably has you assuming that we’re going to be ranking pitchers today. Well, we aren’t. At least not in the way you’re expecting. But there’s a reason for that! For one, MarmosDad already does a fantastic job giving you the Top 100 Starting Pitchers each and every week. And as we’re still here in the pre-season, prepping for drafts, our resident fantasy master lothario Grey provides you detailed rankings of his own top-100 starting pitchers. Those guys are very smart and very good at what they do, and me giving you yet another contrasting set of rankings feels a little like overkill. So that’s one reason I’m not giving you my own bespoke rankings.
The other is that, even more than with hitters, where you play significantly influences how particular pitchers are going to be valued. Here’s what I said when I gave a quick overview of the differences in my intro piece a few weeks ago:
“This is where the biggest differences come in. I’ll get into it a little bit more in the future…but for now, let’s broadly characterize what each site prioritizes for this position.
ESPN: Run prevention is the name of the game. You need volume, because each inning pitched is 3 points, but each run allowed is -2. That hurts. Wins and losses matter, but not as much as at the other sites. Innings, Ks, and keeping runs off the board are what you’re looking for.
CBS: It’s all about volume. Losses are more heavily penalized than at ESPN (-5 vs -2), but wins are more rewarded (7 vs 2). Guys who can go 6+ innings also get rewarded with 3 points for a Quality Start, which is nice. Control is also important, because strikeouts are only worth 0.5 points, while walks will cost you -1. Their leagues are big for maximizing points via two-start arms who might be able to snag a couple wins, but guys on bad teams who walk everyone aren’t going to be worth it.
Fantrax: Wins and Ks. That’s it, basically. Control doesn’t matter, as there is no penalty for walks. They also only give you 1 point for each inning pitched. But it’s a full 10 points for a Win, 3 for a Quality Start, and 1 for each K. Losses are -5, but without a penalty for walks, I don’t think I care. Even more than the other sites, load up on pitching and win via cheap SPs and streaming. Something about that approach sounds familiar for some reason…”
That’s me, stealing a bit from the boss!
Anyway, trying to provide rankings specific to multiple sites would be a crazy task. So I’m not doing it today.
Breaking Down The Rankings
No, not my own. I already told you I’m not doing that. What I am going to do is work off MarmosDad’s rankings from last week and highlight some particular guys who are higher or lower in one format or another and why. Because, for the most part, good pitchers are good pitchers regardless of league type or scoring. But, sometimes, guys are just a little bit better or less good.
The First Batch
We start with top 15. These guys are the best of the best. Whatever scoring system you use, these guys are going to be the best, because they are the best. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t things to take note of anyway.
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | DET |
| 2 | Paul Skenes | PIT |
| 3 | Garrett Crochet | BOS |
| 4 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD |
| 5 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI |
| 6 | Bryan Woo | SEA |
| 7 | Logan Webb | SF |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | SEA |
| 9 | Hunter Brown | HOU |
| 10 | Cole Ragans | KC |
| 11 | Jacob deGrom | TEX |
| 12 | Max Fried | NYY |
| 13 | George Kirby | SEA |
| 14 | Kyle Bradish | BAL |
| 15 | Chris Sale | ATL |
- So if you play on ESPN, you can pretty well just use roto rankings at the pitchers spot. They penalize for walks and hits (WHIP) and really penalize allowing runs (ERA). You can’t just punt volume due to the value of innings pitched. Wins aren’t particularly valuable compared to other sites, but those other factors mean Paul Skenes is deserving of that number 2 or 3 spot. At CBS or Fantrax, he moves down a spot or two because the Pirates are terrible and his resulting lack of wins dings him. Not a lot. He’s still an easy top-5 SP. He’s just not top-2. That might seem like a minor difference, but at that spot in the draft, it’s not nothing. And the process behind it matters as you move down the line.
- Yamamoto and Brown are two who lose a little value in leagues where IP count for 3 points. The innings they give you are going to be stellar, but 6-man rotations are going to limit how many they give you. You definitely can’t count on getting two-start weeks from them, which some people really value. With more teams using six starters for more of the time than they used to, it isn’t a huge hit to their value by any means, but like Skenes’ wins, it’s something to keep in mind.
- Logan Webb is a big winner if you play on Fantrax, where there is no penalty for hits or walks. A WHIP of 1.23 with his volume of innings in roto is less than ideal, and giving up 210 points if hits count for -1 is annoying in points. But when all those grounders getting through the infield don’t count against him? Yeah, buddy. Now, he still needs to get wins, but that’s a big deal.
The Next Batch
| 16 | Dylan Cease | TOR |
| 17 | Joe Ryan | MIN |
| 18 | Framber Valdez | DET |
| 19 | Freddy Peralta | NYM |
| 20 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD |
| 21 | Jesus Luzardo | PHI |
| 22 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD |
| 23 | Kevin Gausman | TOR |
| 24 | Eury Perez | MIA |
| 25 | Sonny Gray | BOS |
| 26 | Nolan McLean | NYM |
| 27 | Chase Burns | CIN |
| 28 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX |
| 29 | Emmett Sheehan | LAD |
| 30 | Trey Yesavage | TOR |
| 31 | Nick Lodolo | CIN |
- Cease is the other side of the problematic WHIP coin. Two of the last three years, though, he’s also had an issue with giving up too many runs. That’s going to get you in trouble, no matter what format or scoring system you play. But even when he struggles, he gives you volume and strikeouts. In Toronto, wins should follow as well. He’s stressful and more of a headache to roster than I personally care for, but if you’ve got patience and the ability to trust the process, he’ll get you what you need in the end.
- Last season was almost certainly a career year for Peralta, but he’s still very good. However, in leagues that give points for Quality Starts, he gets dinged, because he doesn’t get as many of them as other guys in his performance bracket. The Mets are also a risk of a 6-man rotation, further limiting his volume. He’s still good, but in those places I’d lean toward taking Luzardo and Gausman over him.
- Glasnow is the guy I am just out on entirely. I understand why he gets ranked where he does. I just don’t want to deal with it. It’s not him, it’s me. Only, it’s also sort of him because he has only ever made it to 130 IP one time in his 10-year career. I don’t need ratio help, I need points. And between his injury record and the Dodgers’ handling of their rotation, I’m going to look elsewhere for them.
- The skills are there for Eury, or at least we’re assuming they are. But the volume and wins? That’s less certain. But there’s volume issues with everyone behind him here, and Gray is 36, so I’m fine with the ranking. Just be aware.
Number Threes
Some of them may be your number four starter, depending on how much you like drafting pitching. I wouldn’t want them as my second if I could avoid it, though. And no, I didn’t forget 32 or 35. Those were Hunter Greene and Blake Snell in MarmoDad’s rankings, but they’re out until July (Greene) and who knows when (Snell) and I didn’t feel like re-numbering everything. It’s fine.
| 33 | Brandon Woodruff | MLW |
| 34 | Zack Wheeler | PHI |
| 36 | Jacob Misiorowski | MLW |
| 37 | Nick Pivetta | SD |
| 38 | Spencer Strider | ATL |
| 39 | Robbie Ray | SF |
| 40 | Michael King | SD |
| 41 | Cam Schlittler | NYY |
| 42 | Trevor Rogers | BAL |
| 43 | Ryan Pepiot | TB |
| 44 | Shota Imanaga | CHC |
| 45 | Bubba Chandler | PIT |
| 46 | Gavin Williams | CLE |
| 47 | Ranger Suarez | BOS |
| 48 | Tatsyua Imai | HOU |
| 49 | Drew Rasmussen | TB |
| 50 | Matthew Boyd | CHC |
| 51 | Edward Cabrera | CHC |
| 52 | Luis Castillo | SEA |
| 53 | Jack Flaherty | DET |
| 54 | Tanner Bibee | CLE |
| 55 | Andrew Abbott | CIN |
| 56 | Merrill Kelly | ARI |
| 57 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA |
- I can’t pretend to know what to make of Wheeler in terms of either timetable or effectiveness upon his return. It feels like he’ll either be worth a whole lot more than this, or a whole lot less. It’s really up to how much you like to gamble.
- Misiorowski throws really, really hard. After the all-star break, it didn’t lead to particularly impressive, or long, outings. A lot of smart people like him a lot going into the year. I’d prefer almost everyone else in this group if they were all available at my turn to pick. Take that for what you will.
- If you’re drafting in the next couple days, I think here, or just a little bit later, is fine for taking Strider. But if you have the chance to see what he looks like in his next outing, do so. His position here is tenuous if he doesn’t start showing more.
- Last year Rasmussen started 31 games. He had 8 quality starts. He’s a very good pitcher, but he’s one who is clearly less valuable in a points format.
- I understand the general skepticism around Alcantara for this year. He wasn’t great for most of last year, wins are hard to come by in Miami, and he’s never been a huge strikeout guy. But I’m buying him this year. Especially in this format. He’s more in the 40-45 range for me.
Necessary But Volatile
I feel like that could be the tagline for starting pitchers in general, but we’ve reached the portion that it really starts getting to be eye-of-the-beholder area.
| 58 | Mackenzie Gore | TEX |
| 59 | Carlos Rodon | NYY |
| 60 | Shane Baz | BAL |
| 61 | Logan Henderson | MLW |
| 62 | Joe Musgrove | SD |
| 63 | Kris Bubic | KC |
| 64 | Quinn Priester | MLW |
| 65 | Zac Gallen | ARI |
| 66 | Joey Cantillo | CLE |
| 67 | Shane Smith | CWS |
| 68 | Noah Cameron | KC |
| 69 | Roki Sasaki | LAD |
| 70 | Jack Leiter | TEX |
| 71 | Grayson Rodriguez | LAA |
| 72 | Ryan Weathers | NYY |
| 73 | David Peterson | NYM |
| 74 | Cody Ponce | TOR |
| 75 | Ryne Nelson | ARI |
| 76 | Cade Horton | CHC |
- Mackenzie Gore can be a bit of a roller coaster. Maybe getting out of Washington and to Texas helps make him a bit more predictable and consistent. We don’t know if that’s the case yet, thus he leads off this batch.
- Henderson and Priester are another pair who have had discouraging injury news since last week. Do not value Henderson here, in particular. Late, late round dart throw at best at this point, I think.
- Shane Smith pitched fairly well as a rookie last year, but wins were in short supply. The White Sox’ lineup looks better than it does, but he still drops further when they’re a significant part of your scoring system.
- Noah Cameron is a good pitcher who doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts. If you’re playing on CBS, where Ks are .5 for each, it makes him a little more appealing than places where they count for 1.
- Sasaki starts a little run of guys (through Weathers) who have questions about role, performance, health, or a combination thereof. Could pay off nicely. Could be completely useless.
- If you play in a league that has designated spots for SP and RP, and not just general P, Nelson is that oft-coveted creature who qualifies at the latter but is used as the former. Being able to use a starter as a reliever is nice, as a good outing tends to be better than what a closer might do. And in two-start weeks they’re like little cheat codes. So if you play in one of those leagues, don’t forget about Nelson.
The Leftovers
Sometimes, leftovers are fantastic and exactly what you want at the time. Other times, they’ve been sitting there ignored for a reason. That’s these guys. They may hit the spot. But they might make you reconsider your life choices.
| 77 | Clay Holmes | NYM |
| 78 | Shane McClanahan | TB |
| 79 | Will Warren | NYY |
| 80 | Seth Lugo | KC |
| 81 | Gerrit Cole | NYY |
| 82 | Casey Mize | DET |
| 83 | Brayan Bello | BOS |
| 84 | Kodai Senga | NYM |
| 85 | Mike Burrows | HOU |
| 86 | Mitch Keller | PIT |
| 87 | Sean Manaea | NYM |
| 88 | Aaron Nola | PHI |
| 89 | Connelly Early | BOS |
| 90 | Zebby Matthews | MIN |
| 91 | Jonah Tong | NYM |
| 92 | Andrew Painter | PHI |
| 93 | Payton Tolle | BOS |
| 94 | Braxton Ashcraft | PIT |
| 95 | Michael Wacha | KC |
| 96 | Parker Messick | CLE |
| 97 | Bailey Ober | MIN |
| 98 | Robby Snelling | MIA |
| 99 | Reid Detmers | ANA |
| 100 | Mick Abel | MIN |
- I have no idea what to expect from Shane McClanahan. I’m incredibly skeptical we’ll see the guy we did a few years ago. I just hope we get to see him on the mound.
- Depending on how many IL spots your league has, Cole might be worth taking a little earlier than this. Don’t just assume he’ll immediately be his typical self, though.
- Abel is someone I didn’t expect to have any interest in at all when he got traded to Minnesota, but here I am, being very interested. I’m as interested as you to see where MarmosDad ranks him this week, because I bet it’s not at 100. I’m guessing 85 or above.
Closing Thoughts
Here’s where I’m going to talk about closers for a second. (So clever, I know.)
First, I’m not ranking them today. I know you’re shocked. But I’ve been around this place long enough to know these two things: Saves Ain’t Got No Face. And JKJ does an excellent job on the bullpen beat.
Treat closers similar to how you would in categories leagues, perhaps with even less emphasis on them. They have value, for sure, but you want to prioritize maximizing your innings each week. And if you play in a league that has specified RP slots, then you really don’t need to reach for the elite options. In fact, in those leagues you’re often going to be trying and use starting pitchers, anyway.
That said, most sites don’t give you points for holds, so setup men who might have some value for their ratios and occasional sneaky win in roto leagues are pretty much worthless here. So you do want guys who are going to get saves. So you don’t need to reach for the very top, but you don’t want to settle for question marks in murky committees, either. That might not sound like particularly useful advice, but it is what it is. Basically, don’t start the run on closers, but don’t wait and miss out entirely, either.
I think that 1st sentence speaks for itself
Not even a single mention of Yahoo? What are we even doing here?
I apologize. I did say in my first piece of the year that I’m just not familiar with Yahoo’s scoring system, and every single place having different scoring is annoying. From what I can gather, you want guys with Ks and Innings there more than anything. So bump up a guy like Sonny Gray. Freddy Peralta loses a little value. Someone like Noah Cameron is pretty undesirable.