Happy Monday, Razzball faithful!

Frankly, after a bit of confusion last week, I figured I’d better get right to it and save the pranks for April 1st.

This IS my Top 100 Starting Pitchers list/ranks for 2025.

To repeat a few caveats.

• This list is based on a bit of column A and a bit of column B (but NOTHING from column C…because it doesn’t exist).

I have crunched a lot of numbers and considered a lot of different metrics/stats when moving names around in my list. That’s the column A information. Column B is less quantitative. Do I believe in the player? Am I biased? Is the bias acceptable? Is this pitcher having the time of his life pitching for a juggernaut (Roki Sasaki), or is this pitcher counting the minutes until his contract expires (any pitcher on the South side of Chicago)?

• “I can’t believe you ranked XXXXX below/above XXXXX! Are you high?!”

Although it is legal up here, I can assure you that this list and the subsequent edits were made with a clear head. But in all seriousness, I get that everyone has their own opinions. Mine are here for you to peruse at your leisure. If you really hate this list, send me yours and we can compare notes. One of the things that I found difficult last year was trying to make room for players who were very similar in skill set, health risk, and overall appeal.

It sounds silly, but there are only so many spots in a Top 20 list (twenty to be exact!). Some names ranked higher than I will draft them because I know others will pick them above where I would (eg. Gerrit Cole, Aaron Nola, Corbin Burnes, Hunter Greene). Others I like but had a tough time making space for in certain sections (eg. Zac Gallen, Bryan Woo, Zach Eflin, Shohei Ohtani). To be honest, I was tempted to move a few names around in my final edit of this one before I submitted it. That’s how tough some of the tie-breakers were, and continue to be, in some spots.

• This won’t be the same list of rankings as the one I will write up at the end of the season.

Anyone who is a regular reader of this space will know that it’s nearly impossible to keep the same list from one week to the next. With injuries, call-ups, and changes in roles, it’s likely that a lot of these names will have shifted by the time we get to May 1st. Heck, it will likely change before the end of Spring Training based on where free agents are still signing and if there are any announcements to take into account or health issues to consider.

That’s basically it. Almost. I’ll give you my list of 100 Starting Pitchers for 2025 with the player, team, average ADP (based on my post from last week), and a notes section. 

During the regular season, I’ll give you notes on each player. For today, I’ll use the notes to indicate which arms I dislike for the 2025 season, and which ones I love. I mean, it is almost Valentine’s Day after all. 

I’ll keep it short today, though, and only give you a few in each spot.

But before we get into it, there’s a bit of business to take care of first.  The Razzball subscriptions are well worth the price of admission. If you haven’t signed up for them, this should be your go-to reference for the entire season. Word on the Razz-Street is if you sign up early enough, you’ll also get access to Rudy’s War Room. This stuff will save you a lot of time researching and often includes those “Oh, I never thought about that” solutions. If you’re serious about improving throughout the season, check the link, yo.

Is there an easier way to find which players MarmosDad is swooning over this Spring? Well, that’s simple. Just look for the Marmo icon in the Notes section.

The bestest girl in all of the Land and a good graphic for our favorites.

I decided to change up the graphic for the not-so-loved arms on the list this year too.

As a shout-out to the kids at school, (the two that I sired and the hundreds that I did not), it was tough to figure out a graphic that I could use to show ultimate disdain, overwhelming frustration, and general annoyance. 

It took me about 6 seconds to figure out.

The not-so-bestest players but a pretty great graphic. Unless you’re a D-Backs fan.

If you see the Skibidi Toilet graphic, ask the 9-year-old in your life, and they’ll tell you what it means. 

With all apologies to Jordan Montgomery…and I’m sure he’s a lovely person…I had to do a bit of editing so we could avoid the hassles of copyright infringement. 

So what does the Skibidi Toilet mean? Well, I can guarantee that you don’t have to ask Diamondbacks owner, Ken Kendrick what it means. 

It’s really … not good.

The Top 100 Starting Pitchers for 2025

 

SP RANK (Player Rater)	Name	Team	Average  SP Ranking (Or ADP)	Notes
1	Paul Skenes	PIT	2.25
2	Tarik Skubal	DET	2.25
3	Zack Wheeler	PHI	3.5
4	Logan Gilbert	SEA	5.5
5	Cole Ragans	KC	10.5
6	Garrett Crochet	BOS	10
7	Dylan Cease	SD	9
8	Corbin Burnes	ARI	10.25
9	George Kirby	SEA	14.5
10	Blake Snell	LAD	13.75
11	Gerrit Cole	NYY	18.5
12	Framber Valdez	HOU	12
13	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	LAD	21
14	Chris Sale	ATL	10.25
15	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	28
16	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL	31.75
17	Jacob deGrom	TEX	36.75
18	Roki Sasaki	LAD	34.25
19	Shota Imanaga	CHC	21.75
20	Bailey Ober	MIN	24
21	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	2
22	Aaron Nola	PHI	19
23	Bryce Miller	SEA	26.75
24	Spencer Schwellenbach	ATL	39
25	Joe Ryan	MIN	24.75
26	Sonny Gray	STL	28.5
27	Michael King	SD	22.5
28	Hunter Greene	CIN	27.75
29	Freddy Peralta	MLW	28.75
30	Pablo Lopez	MIN	14
31	Max Fried	NYY	25.75
32	Luis Castillo	SEA	21.25
33	Logan Webb	SF	22.75
34	Tanner Bibee	CLE	33.25
35	Zac Gallen	ARI	31
36	Bryan Woo	SEA	57.75
37	Kevin Gausman	TOR	32.75
38	Spencer Strider	ATL	55.75
39	Jack Flaherty	DET	46.5
40	Shane McClanahan	TB	49.25
41	Yusei Kikuchi	LAA	47
42	Hunter Brown	HOU	34.75
43	Jared Jones	PIT	44.25
44	Kodai Senga	NYM	45.5
45	Carlos Rodon	NYY	41.25
46	Cristopher Sanchez	PHI	47.5
47	Justin Steele	CHC	33.25
48	Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	48
49	Robbie Ray	SFG	64.75
50	Reynaldo Lopez	ATL	49.25
51	Seth Lugo	KC	45
52	Brandon Woodruff	MLW	67.75
53	Taj Bradley	TB	53.25
54	Mackenzie Gore	WSH	59.25
55	Zach Eflin	BAL	53.25
56	Ranger Suarez	PHI	59.5
57	Bowden Francis	TOR	65.7
58	Jose Berrios	TOR	55
59	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	66.5
60	Tanner Houck	BOS	54.75
61	Luis Gil	NYY	50.25
62	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	74.25
63	Jesus Luzardo	PHI	86
64	Ronel Blanco	HOU	56
65	Kutter Crawford	BOS	79.5
66	Nick Lodolo	CIN	79.25
67	Mitch Keller	PIT	59.5
68	Sean Manaea	NYM	57
69	Gavin Williams	CLE	79
70	Chris Bassitt	TOR	76.75
71	Ryan Pepiot	TB	63.75
72	Spencer Arrighetti	HOU	70
73	Jeffrey Springs	ATH	81.5
74	Max Scherzer	TOR	99.5
75	Nick Pivetta	FA	73.5
76	Yu Darvish	SD	87.25
77	Reese Olson	DET	80
78	Merrill Kelly	ARI	73.25
79	Shane Baz	TB	69
80	Brady Singer	CIN	68
81	Brayan Bello	BOS	72.25
82	Clarke Schmidt	NYY	66
83	Michael Wacha	KC	74.75
84	Walker Buehler	BOS	73
85	Matthew Boyd	CHC	96.7
86	Charlie Morton	BAL	93.5
87	Jose Soriano	LAA	105
88	Ryne Nelson	ARI	95
89	Drew Rasmussen	TB	100.75
90	Tobias Myers	MLW	89
91	Bobby Miller	LAD	101
92	Dustin May	LAD	122
93	Cody Bradford	TEX	94
94	Tomoyuki Sugano	BAL	96
95	Luis Severino	ATH	82
96	Eduardo Rodriguez	ARI	113
97	Justin Verlander	SFG	119
98	Jackson Jobe	DET	79
99	DJ Herz	WSH	95
100	Kumar Rocker	TEX	83

 

Considered but not here…yet: Noah Schultz, Bubba Chandler, Grant Holmes, Lucas Giolito, David Festa, Clay Holmes, Quinn Matthews, Joey Cantillo, Hayden Birdsong, Edward Cabrera, Eury Perez, Luis Ortiz, Kris Bubic, Jake Irvin, Kyle Bradish, Andrew Painter, Andrew Abbott, Dean Kremer, JP Sears, Erick Fedde, Kyle Harrison, David Peterson, Nestor Cortes, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Mahle, Andrew Heaney, Frankie Montas, Reid Detmers, Aaron Civale, Shane Bieber, DL Hall, Triston McKenzie, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw, Garrett Whitlock, John Means, Jack Leiter.

 

OH, MARMO. WET NOSE NUZZLES FOR THESE BUSSIN’ GEMS (FIGURATIVELY, OF COURSE)

These are the good ones. If you drafted a team of these guys, I would call you the best arm picker in the land.

Paul Skenes – Ya, ya, ya. We know. He’s the best. There’s a nice overview of Skenes’ potential to be king of the hill in 2025 from EWB here. Clickity click it.

Shota Imanaga – Every time I look at Shota’s numbers and where he ranked amongst his peers last season, I get a little bit giddy. I wrote up all those stats last week in my Player Rater ADP article. Here’s the Imanaga snippet:

“Our SP28 ranking is the lowest of the rankings/ADP sources here. I’m not entirely sure why. Imanaga’s 9.03 K/9 isn’t as flashy as the double-digit numbers we got from Cole Ragans, Dylan Cease, or even Yusei Kikuchi (10.55 K/9). His K/9 puts him just outside of the Top 20 starters from last year. But if we look a bit more closely at Imanaga, we’ll find a stellar 1.45 BB/9, which was good enough to rank him at SP4. His 2024 BABIP? His .264 was good enough to rank him 10th among starters. The K/BB rate? That was 6.21. Good enough for third place behind George Kirby and Tarik Skubal.”

Ranking him in the Top 20 is a bit of a stretch compared to where others are ranking him, but I’m willing to make this guy my SP1 in those leagues where I’m loading up on hitters in the first 5 rounds. He had a great first season with the CHC, and at 31, durability, experience, and ability to continue to adapt to the league should come much easier to him than it would to a much younger MLB sophomore.

I felt better about my SP19 ranking after I saw Grey had him at 13th in his Top 20.

Bryce Miller – Continuing with the theme of my numbers lining up with Grey’s, I was almost concerned that I had Bryce Miller ranked too highly at SP23. There are quite a few very good arms to rank and it was tough to make room for everyone in that top pocket of 20. I’ll mention it later, but some arms that I will never draft found spots in the Top 20 based mostly on me knowing that at least one person in a draft room will value them as Top 20 arms. Bryce Miller falls into the same kind of category as his rotation mate (about an inch below here) does: Wide-awake sleeper who won’t be overlooked for long, and who I assume will have a healthy jump in ADP as we get closer to opening day.

Bryan Woo – The helium is rising and I’m starting to get a bit concerned that the Woo-bot is going to turn into one of those full-fledged, wide-awake sleepers on everyone’s radar this Spring. I looked at his ranking here (SP36) and almost pushed him up into that Top 30 section. To be honest, I could probably flip him with Hutner Greene or Luis Castillo, but I know those guys will go much higher than where I have them ranked. As for Woo, I wrote this up last week in that same Top 100 ADP breakdown that I pulled the quote for Imanaga from:

“With Woo, I’m fully prepared to take the L this year. The hamstring injury from last year concerns me a lot less than the possibility that his forearm soreness resurfaces. Why push so hard to snag Woo on my teams this draft season? I believe his 7.49 K/9 from last year is due to jump, big time. He posted a 9.55 K/9 in 18 starts in 2023, and I assume that he’ll make his way back to the 9-10 range very quickly in April. The walk rate? Well, at 122 IP, Woo didn’t qualify for the BB/9 title, but if we included him in the list, his 0.96 BB/9 would have ranked him first overall. Yes, that’s ahead of his rotation-mate George Kirby’s 1.08 BB/9.”

Kodai Senga – I mentioned last week that I was prepared to sharpen the monocle and fix it squarely on Kodai Senga for this Spring Training. As I said above in the Bryce Miller blurb, there are so many arms that fall into this kind of SP30-50 range that I want on every one of my teams. And it is very difficult to jam 40 pitchers into the Top 20 spots. Grey is a lot more down on Senga than I am (his SP58) but I can’t argue with his rationale:

“With Senga? I haven’t the foggiest what’s going on with him, because search functions no longer work. Assuming he’s fine because he pitched in the postseason. Well, “fine” is subjective. He was pretty bad in the postseason. Logically, I think he will be rusty at best, and not really healthy at worst. I don’t know, and I don’t really want to draft starters who my conclusion on them is “I don’t know.” 2025 Projections: 9-4/3.66/1.26/139 in 124 IP”.

That’s me quoting Grey. Sure, Senga had a rough postseason, but if that suppresses his draft-day price, and I can cross my fingers and toes that he stays healthy? Yep. I’m in.

Jackson Jobe – This one is less about Jackson Jobe and more about wanting to put a few names on our Top 100 list that could impress early if they break camp or end up doing enough in limited time to warrant an early call-up to the big leagues. If I’m providing full disclosure, I had Andrew Painter ranked where I now have DJ Herz because I was ready to take the plunge after Painter had a great AFL stint this winter, (albeit in just 15 innings). I decided against ranking Painter because he’s not going to sniff that rotation until June at the very earliest. Jobe? That’s a different story.

Do I think Jobe breaks camp with the Tigers? No. I assume the Detroit rotation runs from Tarik, Flaherty, Reese Olson, Casey Mize, and Alex Cobb as a placeholder for Jobe. Heck, if Mize flops again we may even see Matt Manning for a few starts. But the general gist here is it’s ok to target some higher-upside arms that could get an early call-up if injuries strike their MLB rotation. With some of these names in the SP90-100 range, you’re looking at an overall ADP of at least 300+. Tomo Sugano’s is 400 (NFBC). DJ Herz is at 385 ADP.  In a 12-team league, you’re drafting that in or around the 32nd round. If they flop, it’s an easy FAAB cut. If not? Those are the kinds of upside gambles that could push you into contention if everything breaks right.

SKIBIDI OHIO RIZZ WITH A BIG BACK GYATT. BRUH, THAT’S BETA A.F.

What? What does that mean?! In short? These are not favorable choices. Due to a poor history, bad draft position, or crummy situation…me no likey.

Chris Sale – Doubling down on an injury expectation for the second year in a row AFTER the guy wins a Cy Young? That’s probably not a good move, but I can’t help but wonder when things fall apart for Sale. Last year felt like he made a deal with the devil. Could he have signed a two-year deal? Does Team Beelzebub have a team option here? What does that get Satan if Sale goes out and wins another Cy Young award? A bonus soul? WE NEED TO KNOW!

Luis Castillo – I don’t know if this fade is more about his rotation-mates than his 2024 output, but Castillo is going off the (NFBC) board as the 23rd-ranked starting pitcher. I said it at some point last year; when the other people you’re compared to are all super-models, and you’re the 5th best super-model in the group, are you really that bad of an option? Castillo’s BB/9, K/BB, and ERA all ranked as 5th best out of the Mariners’ starting pitchers. Does that make him a terrible choice as the 5th best supermodel…er, SP in Seattle? No. I just don’t want to pay up for that when I can draft Bailey Ober, Spencer Schwellenbach, or Tanner Bibee in that zone instead.

Carlos Rodon – I wrote up a bit about Carlos Rodon a couple of weeks ago in my “Listless Monday Afternoon” piece.  You can click it over there. Could Rodon be the ace who surfaced in that final year with the White Sox or that solo year in San Francisco? I guess so. ALL of his numbers improved in 2024 and it looked like he put his ugly 2023 behind him. For me, this is more about not believing that he’s out of the woods yet and that a 32-year-old flyball pitcher isn’t going to magically stop giving up home runs. Adding the Yankee tax to that means I’ll look elsewhere if I’m SP fishing around 132 overall. Others in that pond? Jack Flaherty, Jared Jones, and Bryan Woo. I’ll take any of those three over Rodon, please.

Taj Bradley – Do I believe Taj Bradley has huge potential to be an ace? Yes. Is Taj Bradley’s K/9 over the past couple of years a thing of beauty? Also, yes. Registering 10 strikeouts per nine innings is impressive for anyone, but when it comes from a 23-year-old kid in 138 MLB innings, that’s something to pay attention to. It sounds like I put Taj in the wrong section here, so I’ll cut to the chase. I don’t trust the command, and I think the 1.43 HR/9 will go up in that minor league park the Rays are headed to for 81 games. I’d be fine with picking up Taj in a keeper league, but I’m not touching him in redraft if I can grab a more stable arm in Zach Eflin or Tanner Houck in that 200-ish ADP section.

Luis Gil – It’s a similar story to Taj Bradley. The K/9 is pretty. So pretty. But that BB/9 needs to get cleaned up if I’m going to roster anyone with some upside. Would Gil be a good flier to take late to round out the rotation? Of course. Is he going to be available after pick 200? Well, I think that’s about as likely as him shaving 3+ points off his 4.57 BB/9 this year.

Ryan Pepiot – Hype outweighs reality? That’s what I’m thinking with Pepiot this year. At 27 years old, he’s certainly not a spring chicken like the two arms outlined above him here. But let’s have a bit of perspective. Pepiot threw 130 innings in Tampa last year, missed time with a leg injury, and then missed a month with a knee infection. In 2023, he threw 64 innings. In 2022, he finished with 127 innings. OOPSY and Steamer are predicting the biggest innings totals from Pepiot this year (165/166 respectively), but I just don’t see it.

I have him much lower in my rankings than a lot of other places, so I doubt I roster Pepiot anywhere this year. There are a couple of risky arms being drafted around him in Shane Baz and Sandy Alcantara. I’d rather gamble on those two bouncing back or settling for safety in Seth Lugo or Kevin Gausman. Although I’ll admit that the word ‘safety’ there is doing a lot of heavy lifting. 

Brady Singer – I will not draft a Reds starter this year. Nope. No way. Not in that park.

“But Brady Singer is a ground ball pitcher! And he’s a strikeout machine! He’s just what the Reds need!”

I won’t disagree with that, but I will say that I’m not ready to burn a draft pick on Singer when there are other players who I’m more willing to roll the dice on in that ADP. And, this didn’t make me question that line of thinking much further, either.

That’s all for this week! I hope you enjoyed it! Next week, I’ll re-post the Top 100 Starting Pitchers with some more write-ups on the Top 100 arms that I think need a bit more attention than others. Then, I’ll dip into the Player Rater once again for a deeper dive into the 101-200 ranked players. Don’t worry, though, the following week I’ll be sifting through the hellscape that is 201+ from our Player Rater to see if I can uncover some names for our AL/NL-only deeper league players.

Drop some comments in the chat if you’re feeling extra fired up about some of the names I do (or don’t) have here. Have a great week!

Follow me @marmosdad on Twitter/X and Bluesky @marmosdad.bsky.social