Happy Monday, Razzball faithful! It’s your old pal, MarmosDad, back for another exciting edition (are you Scherze about that?) of the Top 100 Starting Pitchers!
This introduction is brought to you by Naughty By Nature.
“A.D.P. how can I explain it?
These pitchers need to frame it
To have y’all jumpin’, draftin’, sayin’ it.
O is for Other, P is for People’s, scratch your temple
The last P? Well, that’s not that simple, uh.”
ACKSHUALLY, it is pretty simple: Projections.
Other People’s Projections directly affect the Average Draft Position of our draft lists so…arm me with harmony as I take time to crunch a massive sea of data into a cool little quick-reference piece for you all. Are you down with ADP?
Before we get into the thick of it, though, I’ll share the link to Rudy’s toolbox for 2025. If you haven’t signed up for it, this should be your go-to reference for the entire season. It will save you a lot of time researching and often includes those “Oh, I never thought about that” solutions. The Razzball subscriptions are well worth the price of admission. If you’re serious about improving throughout the season, and getting out ahead of your competition even before draft season starts, check the link, yo!
There’s also a BlueSky Razzball starter pack for anyone who is looking to follow our group of writers on socials.
And now…Here’s the general gist of what’s up this fine Monday afternoon.
I’ll use the 2025 Preseason Player Rater for Starting Pitchers as a baseline for the ranking here.
ADP isn’t the be-all and end-all of the draft season, but Grey said it best on his Top 20 pod with BDon. ADP should at least be looked at (or considered) if you have certain arms targeted and are wondering which rounds you’ll likely have to make your move (ahead of the consensus). If you’re targeting a certain player, it would be a mistake to not at least have a peek at where others are considering pulling the trigger.
Does this mean you should be drafting Bryan Woo in Round 3? No. But it should give you an idea of which names are more likely to be sitting there in the draft queue when you’re looking to beef up your rotation.
The first three columns are the current 2025 Preseason Player Rater ranking, the player name, and his projected Roto-Value (in $).
My next three columns are NFBC, Fantrax, and ESPN ADP from each respective Top 100 Starting Pitcher rankings.
(I don’t play in ESPN leagues but I assume some of you do, so I wanted to have them in as a third).
The final two columns are the Average SP ranking (of the four sources), and the OVERALL ADP (NFBC).
I present to you…
THE BIG BOARD OF STARTING PITCHERS’ ADP
- Each piece of data is based on 5X5 projections from 2025 15-team auction values/rankings.
SP RANK
(Player Rater) |
Name | R$ | NFBC ADP | FANTRAX ADP | ESPNADP | AVERAGE SP
RANKING |
OVERALL ADP
(NFBC) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Paul Skenes | 31.9 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2.25 | 12.06 |
2 | Tarik Skubal | 29.6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2.25 | 14.95 |
3 | Zack Wheeler | 26.4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3.5 | 21.72 |
4 | Chris Sale | 25.2 | 8 | 22 | 7 | 10.25 | 39.37 |
5 | Logan Gilbert | 23.2 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5.5 | 28.32 |
6 | Joe Ryan | 22.7 | 31 | 26 | 36 | 24.75 | 105.53 |
7 | Cole Ragans | 22.6 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 10.5 | 48.53 |
8 | Garrett Crochet | 21.7 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 33.52 |
9 | Tyler Glasnow | 20.6 | 32 | 42 | 29 | 28 | 108.45 |
10 | Dylan Cease | 20.5 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 48.49 |
11 | Blake Snell | 20.4 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 13.75 | 51.20 |
12 | Pablo Lopez | 20 | 18 | 8 | 18 | 14 | 67.57 |
13 | Framber Valdez | 19.4 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 67.27 |
14 | Carlos Rodon | 18.3 | 39 | 50 | 62 | 41.25 | 131.65 |
15 | George Kirby | 18.3 | 9 | 25 | 9 | 14.5 | 43.99 |
16 | Grayson Rodriguez | 18 | 33 | 44 | 34 | 31.75 | 109.06 |
17 | Roki Sasaki | 17.6 | 24 | 66 | 30 | 34.25 | 94.68 |
18 | Sonny Gray | 17.4 | 35 | 23 | 38 | 28.5 | 115.33 |
19 | Aaron Nola | 17.2 | 22 | 10 | 19 | 17.5 | 87.76 |
20 | Corbin Burnes | 16.9 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 10.25 | 37.70 |
21 | Bailey Ober | 16.6 | 21 | 28 | 26 | 24 | 87.24 |
22 | Jacob deGrom | 16.4 | 10 | 84 | 31 | 36.75 | 44.71 |
23 | Freddy Peralta | 16.3 | 29 | 35 | 28 | 28.75 | 102.84 |
24 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 16.3 | 14 | 31 | 15 | 21 | 59.76 |
25 | Luis Castillo | 15.7 | 23 | 13 | 24 | 21.25 | 89.89 |
26 | Max Fried | 15.7 | 30 | 20 | 27 | 25.75 | 103.11 |
27 | Hunter Greene | 15.7 | 25 | 36 | 23 | 27.75 | 96.47 |
28 | Shota Imanaga | 15.7 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 21.75 | 77.42 |
29 | Logan Webb | 15.6 | 28 | 14 | 20 | 22.75 | 102.36 |
30 | Shane McClanahan | 15.1 | 36 | 104 | 37 | 49.25 | 119.16 |
31 | Michael King | 14.9 | 16 | 21 | 22 | 22.5 | 66.75 |
32 | Kevin Gausman | 14.5 | 48 | 34 | 17 | 32.75 | 164.25 |
33 | Gerrit Cole | 14.2 | 15 | 16 | 10 | 18.5 | 62.63 |
34 | Tanner Bibee | 14.2 | 27 | 29 | 43 | 33.25 | 99.66 |
35 | Cristopher Sanchez | 14.1 | 56 | 43 | 56 | 47.5 | 188.79 |
36 | Justin Steele | 14.1 | 38 | 24 | 35 | 33.25 | 130.94 |
37 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 13.9 | 26 | 47 | 46 | 39 | 98.07 |
38 | Hunter Brown | 13.5 | 34 | 18 | 49 | 34.75 | 109.80 |
39 | Reynaldo Lopez | 13.4 | 46 | 79 | 33 | 49.25 | 158.75 |
40 | Spencer Strider | 13.3 | 41 | 101 | 41 | 55.75 | 140.55 |
41 | Yusei Kikuchi | 11.5 | 45 | 55 | 47 | 47 | 155.94 |
42 | Taj Bradley | 11.5 | 57 | 54 | 60 | 53.25 | 193.42 |
43 | Bryce Miller | 11.3 | 20 | 33 | 11 | 26.75 | 83.23 |
44 | Brandon Pfaadt | 10 | 53 | 27 | 68 | 48 | 183.44 |
45 | Zac Gallen | 9.9 | 37 | 17 | 25 | 31 | 122.12 |
*46 | Shohei Ohtani | 9.8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12.5 | 1.40 |
47 | MacKenzie Gore | 9.8 | 61 | 57 | 72 | 59.25 | 207.54 |
48 | Robbie Ray | 9.7 | 47 | 107 | 57 | 64.75 | 160.50 |
49 | Nathan Eovaldi | 9.4 | 60 | 76 | 81 | 66.5 | 205.35 |
50 | Jared Jones | 9.2 | 43 | 30 | 54 | 44.25 | 146.04 |
51 | Seth Lugo | 9 | 52 | 38 | 39 | 45 | 178.11 |
52 | Ranger Suarez | 8.9 | 75 | 56 | 55 | 59.5 | 263.21 |
53 | Kodai Senga | 8.6 | 44 | 32 | 53 | 45.5 | 150.69 |
54 | Zach Eflin | 8.2 | 54 | 53 | 52 | 53.25 | 185.21 |
55 | Brandon Woodruff | 8.2 | 68 | 85 | 63 | 67.75 | 233.40 |
56 | Jack Flaherty | 7.2 | 40 | 46 | 44 | 46.5 | 140.40 |
57 | Jesus Luzardo | 7.2 | 87 | 114 | N/R | 86 | 343.87 |
58 | Kutter Crawford | 7.1 | 77 | 124 | 59 | 79.5 | 272.68 |
59 | Bowden Francis | 7 | 64 | 74 | N/R | 65.7 | 224.57 |
60 | Jose Berrios | 6.9 | 67 | 51 | 42 | 55 | 232.64 |
61 | Ryan Pepiot | 6.9 | 50 | 73 | 71 | 63.75 | 168.63 |
62 | Jeffrey Springs | 6.7 | 71 | 116 | 77 | 81.5 | 248.14 |
63 | Bryan Woo | 6.5 | 42 | 78 | 48 | 57.75 | 141.76 |
64 | Chris Bassitt | 6.4 | 103 | 49 | 91 | 76.75 | 451.59 |
65 | Michael Wacha | 6.2 | 76 | 63 | 95 | 74.75 | 267.84 |
66 | Brady Singer | 6.1 | 100 | 40 | 66 | 68 | 420.47 |
67 | Nick Lodolo | 5.9 | 72 | 88 | 90 | 79.25 | 252.88 |
68 | Tanner Houck | 5.7 | 63 | 48 | 40 | 54.75 | 222.52 |
69 | Ronel Blanco | 5.5 | 69 | 41 | 45 | 56 | 237.28 |
70 | Sean Manaea | 5.4 | 55 | 52 | 51 | 57 | 186.40 |
71 | Mitch Keller | 5.1 | 80 | 37 | 50 | 59.5 | 311.27 |
72 | Luis Gil | 4.6 | 58 | 39 | 32 | 50.25 | 193.81 |
73 | Sandy Alcantara | 4.5 | 49 | 117 | 58 | 74.25 | 166.38 |
74 | Merrill Kelly | 4.4 | 81 | 60 | 78 | 73.25 | 312.67 |
75 | Brayan Bello | 4.3 | 85 | 59 | 70 | 72.25 | 330.50 |
76 | Kyle Harrison | 4.2 | 109 | 87 | 75 | 86.75 | 494.52 |
77 | Yu Darvish | 4.1 | 65 | 127 | 80 | 87.25 | 228.41 |
78 | David Peterson | 3.8 | 105 | 132 | N/R | 105 | 465.56 |
79 | Erick Fedde | 3.7 | 86 | 45 | 61 | 67.75 | 330.71 |
80 | Nestor Cortes | 3.5 | 84 | 61 | 84 | 77.25 | 323.69 |
81 | Reese Olson | 3.3 | 78 | 81 | N/R | 80 | 274.79 |
82 | Jameson Taillon | 2.9 | 99 | 94 | N/R | 91.7 | 417.07 |
83 | Max Scherzer | 2.6 | 107 | 139 | 69 | 99.5 | 487.32 |
84 | Nick Pivetta | 2.5 | 59 | 77 | 74 | 73.5 | 203.46 |
85 | Gavin Williams | 2.2 | 70 | 82 | N/R | 79 | 242.60 |
86 | Tyler Mahle | 2 | 128 | 149 | N/R | 121 | 551.91 |
87 | Andrew Heaney | 1.9 | 136 | N/A | N/R | 111.5 | 569.43 |
88 | Frankie Montas | 1.8 | 98 | 75 | N/R | 87 | 408.76 |
89 | Jose Soriano | 1.8 | 104 | 122 | N/R | 105 | 455.32 |
90 | Drew Rasmussen | 1.6 | 74 | 157 | 82 | 100.75 | 255.88 |
91 | Jake Irvin | 1.2 | 126 | 72 | 83 | 93 | 545.46 |
92 | Dean Kremer | 1.2 | 120 | 115 | N/R | 109 | 533.68 |
93 | Andrew Abbott | 1.1 | 130 | 90 | 93 | 101.5 | 554.29 |
94 | Charlie Morton | 1 | 134 | 65 | 85 | 93.5 | 565.41 |
95 | Reid Detmers | 0.8 | 106 | 99 | N/R | 100 | 486.77 |
96 | JP Sears | 0.2 | 133 | 92 | N/R | 107 | 564.17 |
97 | Matthew Boyd | 0.1 | 93 | 100 | N/R | 96.7 | 380.48 |
98 | DJ Herz | -0.3 | 92 | 95 | N/R | 95 | 372.47 |
99 | Cody Bradford | -0.6 | 95 | 118 | N/R | 104 | 396.21 |
100 | Miles Mikolas | -0.7 | 177 | 70 | N/R | 115.7 | 670.09 |
A few observations…
- Fantrax did not like players with injuries from 2024 or those who did not pitch in MLB in 2024.
- ESPN had a lot of names that were missing from the other lists, especially in the bottom group.
- Our Player Rater continues to push guys up who posted high win totals, (Rodon), or have a history of excellent production, despite the injury risk, (Ryan, Glasnow).
As for the write-ups, let’s break things into pockets of 20 for today. Staying with the 1990s rap theme, we’ll turn to that inspiration for our tier names.
N.W.A. – Top Tier – Literally
ADP SP1-20
These guys are a part of the “world’s most dangerous group”…of 2025 starters.
Paul Skenes – Every time I’ve started a write-up this preseason, I am convinced that I will not run through Paul Skenes and his upcoming season yet again. Well, here we are…yet again. This isn’t a long, drawn-out blurb about Skenes and his 11.5 K/9 in 133 IP. The point here is that I wrote up a very rough draft of my Top 100 list a couple of weeks ago and I tried to talk myself out of putting Skenes in the Top 3. Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler are tried and true arms, so Skenes initially landed in my SP3 spot. Then, after a lot of research and consideration, I thought, “Which SP would I rather have if I was taking one in the first two rounds?”
You can’t go wrong with the average top 5 guys here, but I realized quickly that Skenes as an SP1 is not as silly a ranking as I thought. I won’t have him on any of my teams this year, because I’m not a big fan of drafting SPs in the first 5 rounds, but it would not surprise me if Paul Skenes continued his dominance from 2024 and blew away the competition in 2025.
Joe Ryan – Um…the Player Rater seems to think Joe Ryan is Framber Valdez. The running joke over the past couple of years was that there are certain names atop the Razzball Draft Room (you get access to this if you sign up for a subscription – see above). Framber Valdez is one. Jose Berrios and Giancarlo Stanton were a couple of others. Based on the differences in ADP here, you’ll be staring at Joe Ryan for a few rounds at the top of your War Room. If he shows he’s healthy in spring, I could see making a move for him if you’re looking for an ace at a ‘not-so-ace-y’ price.
Garrett Crochet – I mentioned this in my first article of the year, (We Are Live In ’25!), and in last week’s comparison of my final 2024 list and the 2025 Preseason Player Rater. Garrett Crochet has an unreal ability to strike people out (12.88 K/9 in 2024). What about his other numbers? The BB/9 was a hair above 2, and the guy gave up 18 home runs in 146 IP. Sign me up…is what most people who like to draft early starters would say if they haven’t looked at his innings history.
We know how much the White Sox babied Crochet last year, and maybe that will help him throw even more innings in 2025. But I’m not risking a first or second-round pick on a pitcher who nearly doubled his 83 total innings from 2020-2023. I hope Crochet has a great year in Boston. It just won’t be happening on my roto-squads unless I decide to send out some lopsided trade offers in my keeper leagues.
Public Enemy – Tier Two
ADP SP21-40
Aces that you’ll have to fit into the crosshairs and pull the trigger on sooner rather than later if you want to roster them.
Shota Imanaga – Our SP28 ranking is the lowest of the rankings/ADP sources here. I’m not entirely sure why. Imanaga’s 9.03 K/9 isn’t as flashy as the double-digit numbers we got from Cole Ragans, Dylan Cease, or even Yusei Kikuchi (10.55 K/9). His K/9 puts him just outside of the Top 20 starters from last year. But if we look a bit more closely at Imanaga, we’ll find a stellar 1.45 BB/9, which was good enough to rank him at SP4. His 2024 BABIP? His .264 was good enough to rank him 10th among starters. The K/BB rate? That was 6.21. Good enough for third place behind George Kirby and Tarik Skubal.
I thought about it a few times this winter. I targeted a similarly skilled SP last draft season who looked a lot better than the rankings and ADP had given him credit for – Logan Gilbert. Imanaga can provide that same ace output at a price that shouldn’t cost you one of your top draft picks. I’ll look to load up on bats in drafts this Spring, then scoop Imanaga in Round 5.
Spencer Schwellenbach – The first of our two Spencer twins in Atlanta. I mentioned it a couple of weeks ago, and I’ll re-iterate it again. Schwellenbach will likely be one of those wide-awake-sleepers that everyone is whispering about for the next month. I wouldn’t be surprised if his ADP jumps from his current SP30-ish spot, especially if he starts to dazzle when we get to spring training.
Spencer Strider – Oh, the blasphemy! It feels so wrong to rank Spencer Strider anywhere outside of the Top 10 starting pitchers. Fantrax’s 100+ ranking pushes Strider’s average here to SP55 instead of the early 40s as the other three rankings show. Our old Toronto pal, Alex Anthopoulos, had an interesting quote last week.
“I think Spencer Strider threw his fourth bullpen either yesterday, today, or tomorrow. He’s doing well. He’ll come into spring having a normal spring training (barring no changes from here to that time),” stated Anthopoulos once he was asked about the young fireballer. “I can’t tell you innings in games or that type of stuff. I can tell you that we’ve made the decision ahead of time with both him and Ronald Acuña Jr. that they won’t be on the Opening Day roster. We’re still a couple of weeks away from reporting to camp and another month away from games.”
This news will likely keep Strider’s ADP suppressed, and his ranking in that SP40 range. But if he hits the rubber in spring training and shows he’s got his velocity back? I’ll likely be ready to make a risky decision around 75 overall!
Beastie Boys – Tier Three
SP 41-60
Baseballers Entering ADP Sequences Towards Improving ERAs.
Shohei Ohtani – This one is tricky. It looks like each SP ranking of Ohtani from the other sites are ranking him with his pitching and hitting intertwined. This is the only reason why the Razzball number is as low as it is, and why the average SP ranking is too low to get into a PG-13 movie.
I mentioned Shohei the last couple of weeks and pointed out that a lot of his SP ranking is affected by what the Dodgers plan to do with him after his shoulder injury from the playoffs. Another big factor is how your league deals with Shohei as a player. My mixed league has Shohei as one player who is eligible as a DH or P. In those leagues where Shohei is still treated like two separate entities, I assume you can target the SP version higher than his average placement here. Oh, and this was discussed on Saturday after it was announced that May is the target date for him to be pitching.
Shohei Ohtani is on schedule to return as a two-way player this season despite undergoing complicated surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder. The Dodgers expect him to hit by the start of the season and pitch by May. Link
— ESPN Headlines (@espnheadlines.bsky.social) 2025-02-02T03:47:22.714683+00:00
Robbie Ray – Mister Slim-Fit Denim makes the list in this group for a few reasons. The May 2023 Tommy John Surgery pushed Ray’s 2024 debut back to July 24th. The bad news is Ray ended up on the IL again nearly one month to that day, (August 25th), and ended his season with just 7 starts. The good news? The injury that ended his year with the Giants was a left hamstring strain. There was no word if the cause was a paperclip jabbing into the back of his leg in those “so tight you can see his religion” pants.
I don’t see myself drafting Ray because I’m not a believer. The health issues from the last couple of years make it easier to avoid him because I’m not a big fan. Robbie Ray is one of Blair’s SP-crushes, though, and if you’re on the same level of appreciation, you can read more about him by clicking on that blue line!
Kodai Senga – This whole group makes me downright giddy. Yusei Kikuchi, Zac Gallen, Bryce Miller, Jared Jones, AND Kodai Senga? I’d be happy with any of those arms as my SP1-3. As for Kodai, the calf strain that shelved him for the remainder of 2024 has had enough time to heal. The shoulder/triceps injury that kept him out of action from April to July? Let’s leave that one to Mets president David Stearns.
“He is a healthy player who is progressing through his offseason,” Stearns said. “He has not begun to throw yet, but that’s not necessarily abnormal for Senga as he goes through his offseason. We still expect him to be a pitcher for us on Opening Day and be ready to go. And if that changes, if we get information that makes us question that, we’ll certainly pass it along.”
At the very least, this warrants a sharp monocle during spring training. If I were drafting this week, I’d likely roll the dice on Senga before his ADP jumps in a few weeks.
A Tribe Called Quest – Tier Four
SP61-80
Can you kick it with these guys? Yes, you can!
Bryan Woo – Quickly! Someone get the hypocrite bell! *ding ding* It’s time to go against all of the health concerns and low K/9 rates that I keep focusing on and plant my flag on the Marmo-darling for 2025. Why? Because he’s Be-Woo-tiful, (yikes). All, or most, joking aside, the inclusion of Bryan Woo in this section is more about outlining that sometimes it’s ok to take a risk or two in your draft. Do I want to pick an SP with an injury history in the first 5 rounds? No. Do I want to get a few pieces of that stellar Mariners’ rotation without paying top dollar or draft capital for it? Oh, yes.
With Woo, I’m fully prepared to take the L this year. The hamstring injury from last year concerns me a lot less than the possibility that his forearm soreness resurfaces. Why push so hard to snag Woo on my teams this draft season? I believe his 7.49 K/9 from last year is due to jump, big time. He posted a 9.55 K/9 in 18 starts in 2023, and I assume that he’ll make his way back to the 9-10 range very quickly in April. The walk rate? Well, at 122 IP, Woo didn’t qualify for the BB/9 title, but if we included him in the list, his 0.96 BB/9 would have ranked him first overall. Yes, that’s ahead of his rotation-mate George Kirby’s 1.08 BB/9.
I could go on, but I assume I won’t have to send chocolates or flowers to…ahem…woo this pitcher and convince him to join my roto-squads this draft season.
Nick Lodolo – LOL-dolo! Tibia, calf, groin, finger. That’s the list of IR issues that the “Giant Loller” had in 2024. It’s dangerous to put two of these injury question marks back-to-back here. It’s even more risky to put them together on your fantasy roster unless you have a bunch of other arms that you’re certain will eat innings for you. If I get sniped on Woo, you can bet I’ll look to Lodolo if my squad is ready for a high-risk/high-reward kind of pick. Averaging out the SP rankings, he’s going in the Chris Bassitt, Sandy Alcantara, and Michael Wacha range. I’ll take that.
Sandy Alcantara – I might as well round out this section with another question mark. According to reports, Sandy Alcantara is healthy again. He’ll hit that magical 16-month, post-Tommy John Surgery mark this week. A former ace with a reconstructed pitching arm is intriguing. Is he going off the board around SP75 and at 166 Overall ADP? That might be worth rolling the dice on instead of hoping Mitch Keller or Brayan Bello has figured out how to not make you tear your hair out every five days.
Run DMC – Tier Five
SP81-100
This tier was “Tougher Than Leather” to sift through.
Tougher Than Leather, indeed. I’ll try to stay focused here, but I will say that the final 20 spots on the Top 100 Starting pitchers list are often the toughest ones to rank. There are so many names that could or should break out in 2025 that it’s tough to narrow down. Sifting through 50+ names to figure out who should land in this tier is not easy… but it is part of the fun.
Reese Olson – The 8.06 K/9 isn’t exactly a ‘world-beater’ indicator, but it doesn’t take a Tigers die-hard fan to see that Reese Olson’s sophomore follow-up season was nearly as good as his 2023 debut. 100+ innings with a respectable BB/9 and just 7 HR allowed is pretty solid. He hasn’t had a lot of ‘win-luck’ over the past two seasons, but this one is worth a gamble at the end of the Top 100 ranked SP.
Max Scherzer – “Grandpa, tell me a story about what baseball was like when you were young.”
The Blue Jays score a Cy Young winner! (from 2013, 2016, and 2017). Holy giant jugs of Maple Syrup! Toronto signed a guy who had 300 strikeouts! (in 2018).
As much fun as it is to rip on the Blue Jays, I like this deal. $15.5 million for one year is a gamble that the Jays ownership can afford to make. If Max comes back from his injuries and throws a full season, it’ll be a steal. Toronto needed a veteran arm and I’m more on board with a signing like this than I would’ve been if they went where I assumed they’d be headed (Jose Quintana, Andrew Heaney, Mike Clevinger – yuck). Is it a pie-in-the-sky pipe dream that Max will make at least 15 starts and average less than a million each time he takes the ball? Maybe. A friend said he was putting the over/under on GS at 12.5. I’m hoping he easily hits the over and that his ADP stays low enough for me to take a couple of late fliers.
I guess it’s time to bank on Max Scherzer’s 4th Cy Young award in 2025! (?)
Gavin Williams – This one is a short, cheaty kind of blurb. Williams was one of my picks to click last preseason, but his elbow troubles quickly derailed any hope of a breakout. Did he have surgery to repair the problem? Well, not exactly. Did he still have a great year, despite the elbow trouble? Again, if you count a 3-10 record with a lofty ERA and WHIP a success, then maybe you’re playing the wrong game. I’m putting Williams in here because I believe in the talent. He won’t cost you a lot of draft capital and if he flops again, you can drop him in an early FAAB run and forget we even had this ‘ocular discussion’.
Just missed (Player Rater) Cody Bradford, Spencer Arrighetti, Shane Baz, Justin Verlander, Shane Bieber, Luis Severino, Dustin May, Clarke Schmidt, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tobias Myers, Walker Buehler, Tomo Sugano, Joey Cantillo, Osvaldo Bido, Jackson Jobe, Kumar Rocker, Bubba Chandler, David Festa, Clay Holmes, Nick Martinez, Ryne Nelson,
Before I sign off here, let’s make one thing very clear. This isn’t my final list, and this likely won’t even be the final Player Rater list. Let’s remember that the preseason rankings aren’t chiseled into stone tablets. They are ever-changing entities that rarely remain static for very long.
I’ll use this information as part of the research for my Top 100 list that I will post shortly (I promise!). It’s like Grey said, it would be silly to not consider ADP or other rankings when making my Top 100 Starting Pitchers list, but, in the end, it will be my list with my biases and opinions affecting the slots, along with all of the data I’ve sifted through to help you out!
I am certain about one thing. We’re into February now and that means it’s almost time for … SPRING TRAINING!
See you next Monday!
Follow me @marmosdad on Twitter/X and Bluesky @marmosdad.bsky.social
Joe Ryan at 6? And Rodon top 15. Idk man lol
Can you rank your top 3 please?
Jared Jones
Kikuchi
Pfaadt
Arrighetti
Bowden Francis
Hey Dude,
It’s a good group here for sure, but I’d lean Jones, Kikuchi as Top 2 by quite a bit.
3rd place would go to Pfaadt but that’s a close call. Arrighetti’s strikeout upside is high and I really like Bowden Francis this year (but the K/9 needs to make a jump for him to get into the conversation with the other two guys).
I guess it’s Jones, Kikuchi, Pfaadt.It’s really close though.
Thank you
Love to see the differences between these sources. Thanks Marmo!
No problem, Smitty. I did something like this up last year because I figured it would be a good way to compare them and, to be honest, it was something I would’ve enjoyed reading through too.
Thanks for the read and comment too!
I’m coming off a championship and am hoping to build a stable of young studs. Already keeping Ohtani (U only), Wood, Westburg, and Walker Jenkins. For #5, are you keeping Eury in the 22nd or Jobe in the 18th? Keeper cost increases by two rounds every year.
DET seems to be a pitching factory right now with their org turning arms with far less talent than Jobe into serviceable arms.
MIA has been the opposite and has really only had success with TJ surgeries. Eury, by most accounts though, is still ranked higher than Jobe in keeper/dynasty rankings and is a few rounds cheaper.
Hi Roar,
I think it’s Jobe there. You explained it all as far as what makes the most sense.
It would be better if Jobe was the 22nd-rounder, but I’d go with Jobe just because there’s no guarantee that Eury is fully healthy after his TJS.
I guess people could argue that Matt Manning, Casey Mize, and Tarik Skubal all didn’t avoid injury issues too, but Jobe has the chance to be something really special.
Worst case, if you like Eury a lot you can just redraft him.
I hope that helps.
Hey Marmos, wonderful stuff! I am already losing count of my shares of Woo in my early drafting; I’m sure his forearm will break my heart but like you said willing to take the L at this price point (though I probably have singlehandedly driven up his NFBC ADP over the last couple months, not even kidding…)
Hi Laura! Thanks!
I love it! Woo is an AL only keeper for me and I’m already wondering how many Wacha-types I’ll have to roster to make up for the potential innings disappointment that Woo will bring us. Haha.
Great work! Thank you…do you think Grant Holmes makes The Braves starting 5-6…if he does do you think he is successful?
It’s tough to say depending on what you think successful is. Do I think he can post some good starts if he makes the rotation? Yes. Do I think he’ll stick in the rotation over some of their other young arms or after Strider comes back? That’s a tough one.
If he stakes a claim to one of the rotation spots (5 or 6) in Spring, I assume he’ll be useful for a bit but I wouldn’t count on a full year of MLB innings.
Which keeper? $260 budget / 30 players.
Cease: $21
Schwellenberger $6
Sonny Gray $11
Cease.
Schwellenberger @6 and sleep like a baby…
Ya you can’t really go wrong with any of them. I just figured with that kind of talent, I’d want the one who should end up with the highest ranking (best numbers) at the end of the year.
I’d add Schwellenbach if you can make space for one more somehow.
How exactly does the 2025 Preseason Player Rater data get pulled together? Is that Steamer projections with Rudy’s IP projections layered on top?
I believe it’s a combination of the two, yes.
I watched Rudy’s hour on PitchCon last night where, coincidentally, they talked about starting pitcher ADPs and he mentioned how the player rater will likely shift a bit based on new information or role changes.
For example, I assume Flaherty’s ranking with shift now that he’s signed with Detroit.
Thanks. It probably would have helped to explain that up top since that 100% determined the order of pitchers in the list … people see “Top 100” and assume that means your rankings (as you see in other comments).
Is there a link to Rudy’s PitchCon hour? I always value his insights.
I’d check Nick Pollack’s BluSky post. I think there’s a link to the whole weekend there.
And I did mention it above the list, “ I’ll use the 2025 Preseason Player Rater for Starting Pitchers as a baseline for the ranking here.” But I shouldn’t have used the word ‘ranking’. I see how that could be misinterpreted now.
I probably should’ve just said I used the Player Rater list.
Thanks Len.
Yeah, I’m just not sure all readers understand where the “2025 Preseason Player Rater” data comes from, or that when you say that you “use[d]” it as a “baseline”, that you have not adjusted the order from that baseline.
On the contrary, I feel confident they do *not* understand that when I see comments like “You’ve severely under-rated Woo”, “I can’t believe Spencer Arrighetti missed the rankings . . . what was your thinking?” and “these rankings are on drugs”.
Haha yep. Rest assured, Arrighetti will be in my list and Woo will not be my SP63. He’ll likely be late 40s or early 50s depending on who is around him and whether or not I prefer him to those arms.
Thanks again Len.
You’ve severely under-rated Woo at 63. He won’t last anywhere near that long in a draft of just above average smart managers. If you play with dummies, I guess so. But he’s way too good to be that low. You’re not getting him with a late round pick if you’re in any league I’m in.
Hi Harley,
I’m a big Woo fan, but like I said in the article this isn’t my list. It’s the Preseason Player Rater rankings and the NFBC, Fantrax, and ESPN SP rankings.
My list will be out next week or the following week and I’ll have certain names in different spots for sure.
I agree that Woo will likely go higher in drafts. I was just explaining based on the hat the numbers gave us here.
my bad, I didn’t read the intro. Assumed it was your top 100 based on the headline. tell your headline writer to get his shit straight!
Haha no worries, Harley. I’ll pass along the message!
I can’t believe Spencer Arrighetti missed the rankings after his final two months of the season. Is it just doubt that he can replicate that again or what was your thinking? I feel like he has more upside than a player like Dean Kremer in Baltimore where the fences are being moved in.
Did you downgrade Tampa Pitchers at all due to the ballpark change or is that not really factored in?
He’ll make my Top 100 list when I make mine. He’s just below 100 on Rudy’s rankings. This is an average of the four different site rankings/ADPs.
I don’t know exactly where he’ll fall in my final preseason list, but I think he’ll be well above the bottom 10.
Man, I am a big Joe Ryan fan, but these rankings are on drugs. I just can’t ever forget when he cost me a title 2 years ago by pitching through his secret injury and destroying my stats. And then last year, I traded for him at the deadline, and he went out for the season in his second start for me. I would draft him again, sure – but I’m not paying this kind of price. There are at least 10 guys I’d take ahead of him in these ranks.
Ya I like him a lot too, but he’s one of the ones who are boosted for some reason. I have a feeling it’ll correct itself over the next few weeks but as of right now he’s way up there. I wanted to list off the ADP/rankings of a few different places just so we can compare/contrast and see if there are any players who are very far apart or even closely packed together.
Zach Eflin was one that I thought was wild. 54, 54, 53, 52. Pretty consistent.
Thanks for the read, AntiScioscia.
For sure – it’s so early. We haven’t even hit the fun of the Spring Training ADP Hype Train pumping guys way up the list like AJ Puk last year.
Hunter Brown is an interesting one here, too. 34 / 18 / 49 is pretty wild.
Ya for sure. The Puk hype was pretty wild last year.
I have a feeling there will be a few guys that make considerable jumps.
Part of the reason I did this was to see which places seemed higher on certain guys than others. Plus, seeing Fantrax push guys way down based on what looks like last year’s injuries/innings was interesting too.
Thanks.