As the great philosopher EWB once said, “History repeats. Neat. Repeat History. Complete. Skeet skeet.” OK, I can’t tell if that was me or Lil’ John who wrote that. But much like Nirvana came back, I’m here to remind you, again, that Robbie Ray is OK.
Maybe you haven’t been around Razzball as long as I have. That’s OK. There’s a BlueSky Razzball starter pack. TLDR: I like Robbie Ray. Here’s an article about it. And here we are again, the age of 20 and 25 — simultaneously innocent yet seasoned — thinking about what Robbie Ray can do for your 2025 fantasy baseball team.
What Do I Want From My Pitchers?
I’m notoriously low on starting pitchers in fantasy baseball. If I’m in a 12 team best ball, I might not draft my first starter until round 7 or later. If I’m in a 12-team head-to-head, I’m waiting until round 5. Even in a 15-rounder, I’m likely to get my first hurler in round 3, after I’ve collected a couple bats to start the draft. If you’ve never played in a 15-teamer, I suggest trying it out. It’s a great way to get made fun of by a bunch of guys who consider themselves “alpha” while ordering Burger King from DoorDash.
Why do I draft pitchers so late? Is it because I’m just so good at fantasy baseball that Grey once called me “the Alfred Hitchcock of the draft room”? No, it’s not because of my uncanny timing. It’s because I know there are a ton of late round pitchers who drafters are simply bored of. While everybody is dreaming of Roki Sasaki in round 5, I’m looking for upside in Innings Pitched and Strikeouts later in the draft.
“But why does Innings Pitched matter?”, you say, your mouth full of gummy worms and Cheetos.
Simple math, my friend. Refer to the table below, where I compare Robbie Ray’s last healthy year to Roki Sasaki’s “best” year. This isn’t to compare players, per se, but to show the impact of IP on overall strikeouts.
K/9 | IP | Total K | |
---|---|---|---|
Robbie Ray (2022) | 10.1 | 189 | 212 |
Roki Sasaki (2022, NPB) | 12.0 | 129.1 | 173 |
The thing about IP volume, is that it takes “pretty good” K/9 rates and makes them unbeatable for the glass cannons. This is why the guys like Tyler Glasnow are just not as great as fantasy starters as the masses make you believe. [Dodges glasses hurled from the audience]
Robbie Ray Historical Fantasy Production
Have you ever run a marathon before? No? Same here! Great, I finally found a buddy to sit on the couch and watch Terrace House with. But what if we wanted to get up and run a marathon — do you think we could do it right off the bat? Probably not. Mostly because I can barely get out of bed in the morning, and I assume that you probably couldn’t carry me 26 miles.
The thing about starting pitchers and predictable outcomes is that an enormous factor to increasing one’s certainty of their performance is whether they’ve done well before. Sure, this sounds like your resume writing workshop — list your achievements, and then list your skills, and eventually you’ll have the honor to get fired by an AI agent named “Aidea Aimy.” Pitchers who have “done the work before” are more likely to do it again. In the industry, we call this the Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander effect. No, actually we call this “Forgot About Dre” because guys like Robbie Ray tend to fall off the radar. Told ya — it’s all about timing the draft.
Let’s be honest — Robbie Ray has done the thing before. Here’s where he’s finished in the Starting Pitching Rankings historically:
Year | SP Rank | Notes |
---|---|---|
2019 | SP35 | Recovery from baseball to head |
2020 | SP236 | Yips |
2021 | SP7 | Rebuilt on Blue Jays |
2022 | SP38 | Traded to Seattle |
2023-2024 | N/A | Tommy John surgery and recovery |
Robbie Ray 2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Over the past month at the National Fantasy Baseball Championships, Robbie Ray’s stock has fallen a bit, and he’s now going 159th overall, or roughly SP50 overall. In a 12-teamer, that’s nearly your last SP, or on a 15-teamer, your fourth starter. He’s fallen after guys like Jared Jones and Bryan Woo.
Now I’m not telling you not to draft Jared Jones, but I am telling you that a Pirates pitcher is not where you want to be building your rotation.
Of course, there’s a rather large camel in the room (y’all thought I was gonna say elephant, right? Camels are much easier to fit into rooms. enywhey): Ray is on a “new” team and pitching his first full year after elbow surgery. Sure, there’s risk to picking up R^2 as the savior of your pitching staff. We’re not talking about the second coming of Greg Maddux.
But we are talking about a guy who has topped 160+ Innings five times in his career, and in eligible seasons, has never dipped a K/9 below 10. Yes, even in that season where he got the yips, he combined his nearly 8 BB/9 with a sweet 11.8 K/9.
In his brief return in 2024, his numbers were pretty much “the usual,” with a 12.6 K/9 paired with a 4.4 BB/9 over 30 IP. Walks aren’t as much of a fantasy value killer as we tend to think. That 1.76 HR/9 rate is, well, a killer. That sucks. But it’s not the worst we’ve seen out of upside guys. Reports are filtering in that Ray is more or less healthy and lined up to churn out a typical season on a fairly good team in a pitcher friendly park. What’s not to like?
Part of Ray’s recreation after his bout of the yips was that he simplified his arsenal towards a fastball and slider combo, with his curveball coming back for short bursts in 2024. You know who else succeeded with this combo? Practically every reliever, and some guy named Spencer Strider. Also, how is Spencer Strider on track to pitch in the beginning of the season and he’s getting drafted just before Robbie Ray? Are y’all trying to let me win your league by taking 10 batters first and then leaving the draft with Spencer Strider, Robbie Ray, and Sandy Alcantara? ENYWHEY. It’s not like Ray has to re-create 6 pitches to be successful.
For you ESPN home league fantasy baseballers out there, we’re talking about your last round draft pick being Robbie Ray, and then you laughing the rest of the season while he does his thing. For you competitive baseball players who play for pictures of apes and Doge coins, Robbie Ray is going to be your backup when you see the run of starters going in the sixth and seventh rounds — you’re not going to panic because you know there’s a guy with SP2-3 upside waiting for you at pick 150.
What’s your take on our favorite guy to see on the mound? Drop your comments below and let me know what you think!
So funny I have all three pictures you just mentioned or are coming back from Tommy John… I have Spencer Stryder at $11 and Robbie right at six dollars… Who do I keep if it comes to one of them?
Given that Ray has barely pitched since 2022, do you have any concern that his innings could be limited? Ray coming off a 190 inning season is one thing, Ray coming off consecutive 3 1/3 and 30 2/3 inning seasons is another, no?
Absolutely! He’s more risky than a pitcher who played 2024 healthy, but has a higher degree of confidence of getting above 140-150 IP than many young pitchers.
Other than perhaps wins what is the reasoning of not drafting a Pittsburg SP ?
Poor organizational leadership in general (things I say while being a twins fan).
But just a general lack of upside compared to random starters on good teams. A lot of times, the same ratios and better win rate can be found by filling out one’s roster with pitchers from big market teams that are trying to win.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
Great stuff, as always! I have completed several drafts and am definitely seeing patterns with certain upside guys still being available very late in drafts. I have looked to you for my pitching advice for years and you have always been on point. If you don’t mind, could you please rank and briefly give some insight on these guys:
Hunter Brown
Pfaadt
Arrighetti
Schwellenbach
Jared Jones
Kikuchi
Ray
Bowden Francis
Baz
Taj
Tier 1 – Ace potential
Schwellenbach
Tier 2 – Could break out
Brown
Baz
(I like Baz more, but Brown feels like a safer bet to pitch a full season)
Tier 3 – Safe
Bowden
Pfaadt
Tier 4 – Mixed bag of risks or regression
Kikuchi
Jones
Ray
Tier 5 – I’m not interested
Taj
Thank you for responding. I appreciate it.
Hey Dude — sorry for the delay. Crazy weekend. I’ll give a different angle than AS below and speak from “how confident am i drafting them and rostering them this year”
-Solid confidence and would draft in important leagues: Brown, Pfaadt, Ray, Kikuchi
-Makes me nervous but would draft for upside: Arrighetii, Swellenback, Baz, Taj
-Can probably pick up off the waiver wire in May: Jared Jones, Bowden Francis
Thank you sir!
Picked him a bestball or 2. Probably because I started looking into championship schedules and hope he gets 2 starts. Injury risk wise idk if he gets there his pants are way too tight…
Haha…pretty bold to be looking at championship schedules already! But we’ve seen Ray do that role down the stretch toward the playoffs before. We don’t have to worry about innings caps or anything with a guy like Ray, which helps our second half performance.
Have to know the endgame and plan for it. Need a 3 2 start weeks to have a chance at winning the big prize. I admit I didn’t look at it through my first 20 or so. Sanfran does play the Rockies in sanfran last week of season.
I have Bowden Francis in 100% of my leagues lol
Thanks EWB and good point about the value of volume, especially in IP cap leagues where fewer teams are managing to reach the ceiling each year. Funny you mention Woo, I’m thinking he is a great SP to pair with Ray, to mitigate respective K and WHIP concerns.
Woo has been pretty controversial so far this preseason around razzball lol.
We all love a good ratio pitcher. We all hate a low K pitcher. Woo can quickly become a Martin Perez if he loses his control, which is always the risk. And Ray can end up hitting 97 batters in a row if he loses his control lol. Wouldn’t be a bad idea to pair them , but of course I’d love another 8-9 K/9 guy to be a pair for Ray.
Nice article, I’m planning on rolling with him as one of my keepers in an 18 team 6×6 roto, along with Ragans and Crochet. Big advantage in the K/9 category and can use the draft to focus on hitting. Thanks!
Im keeping ragans and cease as well. I was considering pairing them with joe ryan, sandy, or eflin to level out the walks (K/BB in my league). Could go for kirby, webb, fried, or nola but dont want to pay the price.
Nice. Yeah pitching in my league gets super inflated, so to lock in a few solid high K guys that could give you some good ratios has you off to a good start.
I’ve been a Joe Ryan fan, but that shoulder has me worried for this year. Eflin may be your best bet of the three to stabilize ratios.
I can’t help but wonder if you’ve got some other young talent to keep — Ray is pretty cheap and easy to draft. If you’ve got somebody else that is a good keeper, you might keep them and then draft Ray later
Yeah have some other better keepers, Ray is my fringe-last slot guy
Good article, although it’s probably not helping our RCL draft sleeper chances. I’m also looking to wait on starters, so Ray is a pick of mine too, more for a solid SP4/5, with upside in SF.
I’m here to ruin all the RCLs! I think Ray’s value in an RCL probably takes a hit — with the potential for a lot of innings and a lot of walks, he becomes a bit of a burden with the IP cap. When it comes to RCLs, I’m a bigger fan of the Hero SP start followed by great young guys who will be studs over 120 IP, and tons of closers and Roleless Robs.
That said I’ve never managed to stay interested in the format for more than a month so I’m a total loser there lol