Carlos Santana, Top 100 Hitters, 2017 Fantasy Baseball

Every year, there are surprises in fantasy baseball. Some players come out of nowhere and breakout or, in the case of Aaron Judge, absolutely dominate. Other players regress after a breakout season the year before. There are even the players who have long track records of mediocrity who, all of sudden, appear to have figured something out en route to becoming legitimate contributors both in fantasy and in, you know, real baseball. I like to call these players Justin Smoak-Logan Morrison-Yonder Alonso. The more popular terms among Razzballers for these players are Schmohawks and Hot Schmotatos.

Then, there are the players with longer track records of production who suddenly begin to struggle. This year, one of those players is Carlos Santana. Santana is a guy I like, especially in OBP and OPS leagues, and I have him on a few teams and recently traded him in another. He’s got power, he gets on base, he scores runs, he drives in runs, and he won’t kill your batting average. Heading into this season, I liked him in what appeared to be a pretty mediocre 2017 first basemen class.

As of this writing, he is slashing .211 / .305 / .384 through 250 at-bats in 2017. Those numbers are less than good and are well below his career averages. After I was done thinking “Why Meeeeeee?!” I started thinking “Why?” and “What is different this season?” and dug into his numbers over the past few seasons.

The most obvious to jump out was his BB%, which is at 11.6%, significantly below his career average of 15.3%. But 11.6% isn’t terrible, and it is not enough to justify all of his struggles. It does, however, display a troubling trend for Santana over the past few years:

Like I said, though, the BB% doesn’t tell the whole story. Santana’s numbers are down across the board, and a 5% decrease doesn’t explain everything. After all, his BB% dropped in 2016 while the rest of his production went up. His BABIP currently sits at .237, which is easily a career-low and helps explain some of his struggles.

I don’t expect his BABIP to remain that low, and some normalization in that area should help his batting average a bit. Santana is a switch hitter, though, and his lefty/righty splits this season show some interesting trends. For his career, Santana has been a better overall hitter from the right side but a more powerful hitter from the left side. As a righty, he is a .270 hitter with 37 home runs in 1453 plate appearances. As a lefty, he is a .233 hitter with 122 home runs in 2,952 plate appearances.

In 2016, it was much of the same. From the left: .256, 30 home runs, 492 plate appearances. Same power, a slight increase in batting average. From the right: .267 average, 4 home runs, 196 plate appearances. 2017, though, is a much different story. For starters, while Santana’s BABIP is down overall, it is actually UP as a left-handed hitter:

His BABIP is slightly up as a lefty but plummeted as a righty. And as I mentioned before, his BB% is down overall. In fact, his BB% is decreasing for the fourth season in a row. In 2016, his BB% from the right side absolutely plummeted:

This season, while his BB% his decreasing yet again from the left side, it is slightly increased from the right side (though it is still very low compared to his 2014 and 2015 seasons). What about his K%, you ask? Well:

Oddly enough, his K% is up from the left side and down from the right. This tells the story of a batter who is being more aggressive from the right side of the plate and is not having much success doing so. Looking at his Plate Discipline numbers, the one number that stands out is his O-Contact% (Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone). His O-Contact% is up to 75.2%, with a 66.5% in 2016 and a career average of 68.8%.

And that is likely contributing to his struggles in 2017, especially from the right side of the plate. And what is perhaps most troubling is that 2017, while we are still just 2 1/2 months into the season, is not an outlier for Santana. From the right side, this year is his third consecutive year of decline. Take a look:

After increasing from the right side from 2012-2014, Santana’s wOBA has dropped from .381 all the way down to .258. He is batting just .196 from the right side of the plate, his OBP is just .283, and he is slugging just .299. And while his .189 BABIP from the right side will likely increase as the season goes on (his career mark is .292), the overall regression over the last few seasons is troubling.

Now, for the Week 12 Top 100 rankings.

Note: These rankings are considered ROS Trade Value

Mike Maher’s Top ¹⁰⁰ Hitters

(Rankings based on 12-team Roto. GREEN = player rising. RED = player dropping. BLUE = new to the 100.)

Rank	Name	Team	Pos
1	Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	1B
2	Bryce Harper	WSH	OF
3	Mookie Betts	BOS	OF
4	Nolan Arenado	COL	3B
5	Jose Altuve	HOU	2B
6	Charlie Blackmon	COL	OF
7	Kris Bryant	CHC	3B/OF
8	Trea Turner	WSH	SS/2B/OF
9	Joey Votto	CIN	1B
10	Daniel Murphy	WSH	1B/2B
11	Nelson Cruz	SEA	OF
12	Corey Seager	LAD	SS
13	Francisco Lindor	CLE	SS
14	Anthony Rizzo	CHC	1B
15	Manny Machado	BAL	3B/SS
16	Wil Myers	SD	1B/OF
17	Josh Donaldson	TOR	3B
18	Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	OF
19	Robinson Cano	SEA	2B
20	Carlos Correa	HOU	SS
21	J.D. Martinez	DET	OF
22	Mike Trout	LAA	OF
23	Aaron Judge	NYY	OF
24	Miguel Cabrera	DET	1B
25	George Springer	HOU	OF
26	Matt Kemp	ATL	OF
27	Brian Dozier	MIN	2B
28	Ryan Braun	MIL	OF
29	Jose Ramirez	CLE	3B/OF
30	Miguel Sano	MIN	3B/OF
31	Yoenis Cespedes	NYM	OF
32	Jake Lamb	ARI	3B
33	Marcell Ozuna	MIA	OF
34	Edwin Encarnacion	CLE	1B
35	Michael Conforto	NYM	OF
36	Xander Bogaerts	BOS	SS
37	Christian Yelich	MIA	OF
38	Ian Desmond	COL	OF
39	Khris Davis	OAK	OF
40	Kyle Seager	SEA	3B
41	Buster Posey	SF	C/1B
42	Eric Thames	MIL	1B/OF
43	Andrew Benintendi	BOS	OF
44	Justin Upton	DET	OF
45	Mark Trumbo	BAL	OF
46	Anthony Rendon	WSH	3B
47	Jose Abreu	CWS	1B
48	A.J. Pollock	ARI	OF
49	Corey Dickerson	TB	OF
50	Ryan Zimmerman	WAS	1B
51	Adam Duvall	CIN	OF
52	Dee Gordon	MIA	2B
53	Freddie Freeman	ATL	1B
54	Cody Bellinger	LAD	1B
55	Matt Carpenter	STL	1B/2B/3B
56	Jedd Gyorko	STL	2B/3B/SS
57	Gary Sanchez	NYY	C
58	Adam Jones	BAL	OF
59	Billy Hamilton	CIN	OF
60	Rougned Odor	TEX	2B
61	Michael Brantley	CLE	OF
62	Jay Bruce	NYM	OF
63	Justin Turner	LAD	3B
64	Evan Longoria	TB	3B
65	Eugenio Suarez	CIN	3B
66	Carlos Gonzalez	COL	OF
67	Hanley Ramirez	BOS	1B
68	Albert Pujols	LAA	1B
69	Mitch Haniger	SEA	OF
70	Lorenzo Cain	KC	OF
71	Chris Owings	ARI	2B/SS
72	Eric Hosmer	KC	1B
73	Gregory Polanco	PIT	OF
74	Jean Segura	SEA	2B/SS
75	Ian Kinsler	DET	2B
76	Scott Schebler	CIN	OF
77	Andrew McCutchen	PIT	OF
78	Jonathan Villar	MIL	2B/3B/SS
79	Chris Davis	BAL	1B
80	Elvis Andrus	TEX	SS
81	Salvador Perez	KC	C
82	Yonder Alonso	OAK	1B
83	Starlin Castro	NYY	2B
85	Brett Gardner	NYY	OF
86	Ryon Healy	OAK	1B/3B
88	Trevor Story	COL	SS
89	Adrian Beltre	TEX	3B
84	DJ LeMahieu	COL	2B
87	Aledmys Diaz	STL	SS
90	Jose Bautista	TOR	OF
91	Carlos Santana	CLE	1B
92	Mark Reynolds	COL	1B
93	Odubel Herrera	PHI	OF
94	Justin Bour	MIA	1B
95	Eduardo Nunez	SF	3B/SS/OF
96	Justin Smoak	TOR	1B
97	Domingo Santana	MIL	OF
98	Ender Inciarte	ATL	OF
99	Jonathan Schoop	BAL	2B
100	Mike Moustakas	KC	3B

The Honorable Mentions (Next Five In…)

Rank	Name	Pos	Team
101	Aaron Hicks	NYY	OF
102	Logan Morrison	TB	1B
103	Nomar Mazara	TEX	OF
104	Avisail Garcia	CHW	OF
105	Travis Shaw	MIL	1B/3B

Dropped from the rankings: Alex Bregman, Joey Gallo

As always, disagree with anything here? Have any questions or comments? Want to tell Mike how great he is or how much you agree with him? Want relationship or investment advice?

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If you want to talk fantasy baseball or football or have players you want Mike to feature, hit him up on Twitter at @mikeMaher or post a comment below!

Mike Maher’s Top 100 Hitters

The Honorable Mentions (Next Five In…)

Mike Maher’s Top ¹⁰⁰ Hitters