Please see our player page for Daniel Murphy to see projections for today, the next 7 days and rest of season as well as stats and gamelogs designed with the fantasy baseball player in mind.

Murphy’s law states that, “If something can go wrong, it will.” Murphy’s Law of Expectations (made up by me) has a similar theme: Assumptions lead to outsized expectations, which translates to disappointment. Imagine if your significant other comes home one day and says, “Honey, I’m going to get a boob job or penis enhancement procedure done.” Well, alrighty then. You get all excited and start mental masturbating over gazoongas or I___________________________________________________________________I. But what if the procedure was to reduce the size, or there was a complication with the procedure? You’d be pissed because the outcome did not correlate to all the mental masturbating sessions. That is what happened with Daniel Murphy last draft season. Even though he was coming off knee surgery and missed half of the season, signing with the Colorado Rockies had owners all over the land mental masturbating over what he could do in the confines of Coors Field. There’s no debating that hitting in Coors Field boosts hitting, but the outsized expectations led his ADP to skyrocket from 160 overall up to as high as the 36th overall player. Murphy finished the year hitting .279 with 14 homers in 478 plate appearances. As a result, he’s being selected as the 245th player in NFBC drafts according to data from 1/1/20 to 2/10/20. Does Murphy’s Law of Expectations work the other way as well?

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It’s time for my first (and longest) post of the year. My LABR Mixed draft review.

As always, thanks to Steve Gardner at USA Today for the invite.

Last Year Recap (here’s my post-draft writeup)
Yet again, another competitive season (92 points) but outside the top two (6th place out of 15). The last 5 years I have scored between 87-102.5 points and finished between 3rd-7th.

This is not for lack of trying or being too conservative. Sometimes you barrel a ball only to end up with a double off the Green Monster vs a home run.

One year after basically throwing away a 4th round pick (Darvish 2018), I ended up getting absolutely nothing from my 2nd round pick (Stanton). Combine that with a 10th percentile bad outcome with my 5th round pick (Daniel Murphy) and it is a marvel I was in the top half of the standings. The rest of my early picks were solid to very good: deGrom (#1), Rendon (#3), Mondesi (#4), Robles (#6), Vazquez (#7). I hit big on two later picks with Austin Meadows (#14) and Christian Vazquez (#28). I do not recall any major in-season pickups but I imagine I did pretty well in that regard. I traded Mondesi for Hoskins once my SB lead was secure but Hoskins struggled. Traded Robles late for Bryce Harper which worked out okay.

Congrats to Steve Gardner on the win and Zach Steinhorn on the tough 2nd place finish (crazy last week).

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As someone who lives in Colorado and considers the Rockies “My Team,” I’m ecstatic to get to write their team preview. With that said, I wouldn’t necessarily consider myself a fan because how the hell can anyone be a fan of the Rockies? It’s fun to watch these guys mash baseballs in Coors Field but it’s embarrassing to watch these pitchers crap the bed year after year. That’s simply the nature of playing in Coors Field every year and it makes for some weird baseball. That will surely be a major focus of this preview, so, let’s go ahead and get into it!

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This is gonna be a weird one. Just when you think the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball are stacked chef’s kiss finding a vacation home on House Hunters International, they take a left turn and become ugly like the Property Brothers. Well, mostly the one who always wears plaid. Any hoo! This post goes on for about 1.8 million words, so let’s dive in. Here’s Steamer’s 2020 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2020 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers.  All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included.  Let’s do this!  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball:

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This year the Razzballies are going without a host. I, Grey Albright, Fantasy Master Lothario (don’t abbreviate it) am merely a long-form presenter. Remember, you can’t spell ghosting without host. You also can’t spell hostage, but no one is forcing you to stay for the award show. You’re going to want to, though, because without these awards, you’ll have no idea who was the best and worst hitters and pitchers this year, and you’ll be left giving out your own awards and no one cares if your “Low sodium tomato soup in a sourdough bowl” won your “Whitest Lunch Of All-Tme” award. Stop making up fake awards! For all of you winners and losers, I ask that you please keep your acceptance speeches down to a minimum. As a hero once said, “I’m going to thank everyone in private.” So, before I’m talking to no one but a room full of seat-fillers, here’s the year-end awards for the best and worst of fantasy baseball:

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Searching for value in starting pitchers can be a fool’s errand sometimes, but going contra the Verlanders and Darvishes are the only ways to win in DFS, especially when many teams are prepping for the playoffs and resting starters.  One big time team that needs to stretch starters out is the LA Dodgers.  Rich Hill isn’t exactly the paragon of health, and that means the Dodgers are looking to stretch out Ross Stripling.  He’s been coming back from the IL this month, and doing so to the tune of a tidy 1.13 ERA.  It doesn’t take too much imagination to see him getting through six when he’s pitching in the cavernous confines of Dodger Stadium.  Tampa Bay is one hot hitter (more on him later) or two and timely hitting it’s way to an AL Wild Card spot, by no means a Juggernaut offensively.  Stripling’s low $5,500 price tag means you can load up on offense without the risk of Verlander being pulled quickly or Darvish blowing up and making Cubs fans worry even more.  Now let’s spend all that extra salary.

New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

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Listen, the Padres gave Luis Urias a little over 100 at-bats. If a guy can’t hit major league pitching in that time, then he should be released. It doesn’t matter if he just turned 22 years old. He’s not cut out for a game of sewn-ball. Just the facts, ma’am/ma’an. Sorry. (Okay, it’s crazy what the Padres are doing with Urias. Jose Pirela got like 800 at-bats before he was deemed unusable, and they’re still giving Austin Hedges a chance to hit after about 1,300 at-bats.) On the opposite spectrum from Urias in the doghouse is Ty France getting a chance to show what he can do, after he did this in the minors this year:  Won AAA All-Star Game MVP, PCL Rookie of the Year and PCL MVP. Also, he has the best player pic:

France hit .399 in Triple-A this year (so crazy what hitters are doing across all leagues) and added in 27 homers in 296 ABs. Don’t think batting average will be there for France, but we’ll see along with someone’s underpants. He has power, though, for any park, and could be a short-term add, if nothing else. Just be careful if he ever faces any pitcher with the name German, because he will come to the plate with a white flag attached to his bat. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

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One day, late-summer, when your cousin, who you don’t like, started posting her kids going-back-to-school pictures on Facebook and a Russian troll farm began mining said pictures and getting your cousin’s kids to distribute propaganda, your so-called ace, James Paxton, decided to show up and be spoken for, after five months of grueling ‘what’s wrong with him/is there something wrong with him/is there something wrong with us for not accepting James Paxton for who he is’ questions. Yesterday’s Paxton line of 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 hit, 1 walk, 12 Ks, ERA at 4.16, was what we signed up for! (If we signed up for it, I didn’t, but that’s semantics.) If you drill down on Paxton — hey now! — his velocity is relatively samesies; his K/9 is fine; his walks are up (3.4 BB/9); his FIP is the highest it’s been in almost five years and he’s getting choked by the long ball like a zipper on a senior. This looks like poor luck and worse command. For 2020, a lot depends on how much the ball is flying out still, and I imagine a lot, but it’s hard to not think he should rebound, no matter what your cousin’s brats’ leaflets say.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Happy Labor Day weekend DFSers!  I hope you’re all enjoying the unofficial last weekend of summer.  Let’s score some dough and put our labor to good use. To do so, I’m recommending Joey Lucchesi ($7,800) and his match-up with the Giants.  I’ll fully admit, I’ve had a tough time pegging Joey.  I benched him everywhere against the Red Sox, only to see a decent game on the bench.  Starting him away from Petco might take some pants coconuts, but he did fine in Philly and Oracle Park is no Citizen Bank Park.  The Giants have been somewhat hot, but are still bottom five in team OPS on the year and even during August, they are ranked 19th.  That’s still not great. Joey struck out eight in six innings against the Giants the last time he faced them and I’d expect similar results this time out.  At this price, that’s not just good, it’s good enough.

New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

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