This is gonna be a weird one. Just when you think the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball are stacked chef’s kiss finding a vacation home on House Hunters International, they take a left turn and become ugly like the Property Brothers. Well, mostly the one who always wears plaid. Any hoo! This post goes on for about 1.8 million words, so let’s dive in. Here’s Steamer’s 2020 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2020 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Let’s do this! Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball:
ALL PROJECTIONS ARE BASED ON 60 GAMES PLAYED, DUE TO COVID-19. BE SAFE OUT THERE!
1. Cody Bellinger – Went over him in the top 10 for 2020 fantasy baseball.
2. Pete Alonso – Went over him in the top 20 for 2020 fantasy baseball.
3. Matt Olson – Went over him in the top 20 for 2020 fantasy baseball.
4. Anthony Rizzo – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Muncy. I call this tier, “Wearing my pants on my head.” By the tier name I mean, I’m so excited for these guys I’ve forgotten how to put on pants. As for Rizzo, HR to the Izzo last year became AVG AVG — A Very Good average hitter. His xBA was .300, and his launch angle fell a bit to become more of a line drive hitter. This is something we’ve seen before. Big power bats who become great average hitters with solid, if not spectacular, home runs then, as they continue to age (it happens, I hear), they become just average hitters, then eventually that *raspberries lips*. Think of Miguel Cabrera’s career path. Right now, Rizzo is entering his final years when he will still hit for power, but also give a solid average. 2020 Projections: 34/11/39/.295/1 in 209 ABs
5. Jose Abreu – I’m pretty sure I’m the only to rank Jose Abreu above Josh Bell. In fact (Grey’s got more!), I’d say I’m the only one to rank Abreu sniffing distance of the top 50 overall. My name is Grey, and I am a Jose Abreu truther. People gathered in a circle, “Hello, Grey.” I’ve been in on Abreu for a while now. Secretly. But now it’s time to come forward and be honest with you and myself. Last few years I ranked Abreu low, drafted him and reaped the benefits, while never really talking about him because he’s boring. People gathered in a circle whisper amongst themselves, “He is kinda boring.” It’s not boring what he does for your fantasy team in eye are el. Dude’s like a Cub Scout. Only in this case Cub is short for Cuban. Last year Abreu’s fly balls were a little down, but his power was up. Quality contact vs. quantity. If he can repeat his 21% HR/FB and revert to his 35-36% fly ball rate from previous years, he’s going to hit 35-37 homers easily. To read more, see our new writer, Dan’s Jose Abreu fantasy. *breathes in* Damn, no more new writer smell on Dan. Oh well. Will ask him to hang a pine tree New Writer air freshener from his ear. 2020 Projections: 33/13/40/.280/1 in 225 ABs
6. Freddie Freeman – Before you make an “Estate Sale” sign for your speed category, Freeman has had double-digit steals once in his career, only two years ago, so wheeeeeeee! Maybe all hope is not gone for steals with Freeman, but he had other potential instrumental hmm’s. His 23.6% HR/FB was way beyond his career high. He never even topped 20% before. Of course, Rob Manfred introduced tightly-wound baseballs straight from Guatemala, which were pumped with juice by inserting Capri Sun straws, so expecting less power from anyone seems like Matt Hardy’s brother, Fool. In the top 30 home run hitters from last year, Freeman had the 2nd worst fly ball percentage (34.1%) only besting Trey Mancini’s 31.9% mark. Freeman’s line drive rate (27.5%) and his ground ball rate wasn’t egregious; Mancini’s was, so let’s hold off on calling him Treddie Freemancini. 2020 Projections: 39/11/40/.303/3 in 223 ABs UPDATE: Tested positive for Covid.
7. Max Muncy – Last year I wrote a Muncy sleeper post, saying something like, “He hit 35 homers, and that wasn’t a fluke, he will hit 35 homers again.” And that’s me paraphrasing me! And, guess what, he hit 35 homers again. I don’t think Muncy is an automatic 35-homer hitter. He could hit 40 homers if Dave Roberts played him every day. For whatever reason, a guy who hits 35 homers like clockwork gets no respect. That’s like clockwork if the minute hand were “Homers” and the hour hand were “Seasons” and it were a broken clock that always stuck on 35 o’clock. If you dare to visit another fantasy site who has Muncy ranked lower than this and can actually get an answer from the writer, ask them, “Why would Muncy, who hits 35 homers every year, be ranked below Au Shizz, who is clearly aging in every possible way?” Let me know what they say. 2020 Projections: 34/13/36/.265/1 in 187 ABs
8. Paul Goldschmidt – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Grandal. I call this tier, “My pants are on my rear dump truck.” Unlike the last tier, my pants are on the right way, and I could see myself avoiding all of these 1st basemen, which is gonna make for some interesting drafts, because this is not a small tier. (To read about the mess that is the 1st basemen, check out Laura’s 1st basemen fantasy.) As for Au Shizz, if you just found Razzball, you might be confused why I have a nickname for a guy I clearly don’t like. You might wonder what I have against Au Shizz and how long have I had something against him. Here’s what’s gonna blow your mind, Razznoob. I used to love Au Shizz. I don’t just dislike guys (or like them), I like what they bring to my fantasy team. This is purely transactional. I’m a whore; sorry to disappoint you. Last year Au Shizz got old and his ADP has not caught up with that. A telltale sign is his strikeout rate fell but his average fell too. Yes, his BABIP fell, but this is standard aging player profile. He isn’t hitting the ball as well, so, even if he’s making more contact, it doesn’t matter; it’s not quality. Also, where he was once a 15+ steals guy, he’s now barely contributing a handful. Au Shizz went from the shizz to just shizz. 2020 Projections: 34/11/36/.264/1 in 217 ABs
9. Josh Bell – I imagine I’m gonna have to write schmohawk posts for a few of these guys. This is an ugly tier, and ugliness isn’t in the eye of the beholder, it’s in my mind’s eye and I need to communicate it to you. I know this. I know a lot of you reading this are thinking, “Grey, you are super handsome, like Brad Pitt without the pock marks, but I need to draft some of these 1st basemen.” Well, you don’t. If Bell had just his cockamamie ground ball rate or just his 2nd half or just his garbage team or park, I’d have a hard time drafting him. With all four of those things? Ya’ll crazy to draft him. 2020 Projections: 32/11/36/.271/1 in 203 ABs
10. Yuli Gurriel – If you owned him for his 2nd half when he went 17/.326 in only 236 ABs, then that’s not the kind of thing I would forget either. I’d put those memories in your cheek like a squirrel and call yourself Yuli Squrriel and save those acorns of ‘last year’s fun’ to one day show your grandkids. 2020 Projections: 26/9/30/.294/2 in 206 ABs
11. DJ LeMahieu – The one good thing about avoiding this entire tier is you need to draft starters at some point, and middle infidels and outfielders, so this will give you ample opportunity — amportunity? Yes, that’ll work, unlike DJ LeMahieu. That was an insane previous year. Everything went right. Not really in the business of getting in on guys who just had career years at 31. His fly ball rate fell last year (and it wasn’t good to begin with), and his ground balls went up. Not trying to be a hater, but if he has a 15-homer, .276 year, it wouldn’t surprise me. Especially since he already has, ya know, in his last year in Coors! 2020 Projections: 35/6/29/.288/2 in 221 ABs
12. Yasmani Grandal – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2020 fantasy baseball.
13. Cavan Biggio – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Walker. I call this tier, “Don’t sleep, they’re sleepers.” Pretty obvious tier name, so a quick explanation why I even wrote these sleeper posts. I usually don’t write 1st basemen sleeper posts, but 1st basemen are a mess after the top handful. You might need one of these guys to be your 1st basemen. As for Biggio, here’s my Cavan Biggio sleeper. I wrote it while forgetting Donna Summer was dead. 2020 Projections: 26/9/29.246/7 in 211 ABs
14. Miguel Sano – Already gave you my Miguel Sano sleeper. I wrote it while listening to Lizzo at a brunch place with a bunch of white girls. 2020 Projections: 30/16/35/.241 in 194 ABs
15. Hunter Dozier – I already gave you my Hunter Dozier sleeper. I wrote it while telling a waiter, “Check me out.” 2020 Projections: 29/11/33/.255/3 in 202 ABs
16. Christian Walker – I already gave you my Christian Walker sleeper. It was a post that poured out of me while I was sleeping. 2020 Projections: 30/11/34/.257/1 in 205 ABs
17. Danny Santana – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until here. I call this tier, “Jessica Chastian.” Bryce Dallas Howard and Jessica Chastian look nearly identical. But it’s like confusing ketchup with hot sauce. They’re both red, but you should never confuse the two. These next two tiers are that close, but one was in that terrible M. Night movie and one is a critically acclaimed actress. Which one is which? Damn, they are so confusing. Which one is related to Ron Howard? Oh, that’s easy! Wait, that’s not a trick question, right? See, I’ve confused myself! This tier is the one you want; the next one not as much, but they are very similar. I think, ugh, I’m so confused. Which one was in The Hurt Locker? She’s awesome! Chastian! Right! These tiers even both end on Santanas. So confusing! As for Santana, one thing this tier has in common with the next tier, besides both showing up at casting calls for the same roles, you don’t need to squint hard to see how any of these guys could be a player you don’t want or vice versa for the next tier. Will also say this for these two tiers. Most of these guys will shoot up the rankings for next year if they prove that last year wasn’t a fluke (then they will likely burn you badly as they disappoint in 2021 (assuming there is a 2021 season). Wait I need another parenthetical, don’t I?) Dannys Antana is one that has me especially perplexed. He doesn’t look as flukey as his current ADP would have you believe. No one it seems believes him. Not his power, even though he averaged 406 feet per homer, and a fly ball rate that is way better than Mancini’s. His sprint speed is far from elite, though, and he’s already 29. My guess is most would trust his speed over his power, but I think the opposite might be true. He looks more like a 30/15 hitter than a 15/30, for unstints. Though, neither seem likely. 2020 Projections: 29/8/31/.262/5 in 195 ABs
18. Rhys Hoskins – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Carlos Santana. I call this tier, “Bryce Dallas Howard.” See above for explanation on tier name, and stop skipping around when you’re reading! As for Hoskins, if you jumped out of a DeLorean and told me you came from September 2020 and told me Hoskins had an MVP year, I wouldn’t be shocked, except I would be pissed because that’s the stupid info you bring me from the future. Tell me something that can make me some money! I need dem duckets! I also wouldn’t be surprised if he repeats last year with a .225-ish average. Or rather a .225-shizz average. Or sheez, a .225 average. He just hits too many fly balls, and not enough of them are especially great. He’s like Jose Ramirez without speed. 2020 Projections: 31/12/36/.233/1 in 216 ABs
19. Edwin Encarnacion – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the White Sox. Why do I think the Daniel Palka thing isn’t gonna happen? Prolly because common sense has managed to breach seventeen layers of dead brain cells. Edwin is a poor man’s Nelson Cruz with an imaginary parrot. Call him Nelson Mime-on-a-Cruise.” And that’s me quoting me! 2020 Projections: 29/12/33/.244 in 177 ABs
20. Carlos Santana – I just can’t get behind a career year at 33, even if his namelgänger was 52 when he dropped Smooth. 2020 Projections: 31/10/33/.247/1 in 210 ABs
21. Brandon Lowe – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Nunez. I call this tier, “Gingerbread wheelchair.” Imagine you’re going to the movie theater and there’s no outside snacks allowed. Since you’re a maverick, you’ve figured out a way around that by going in with a gingerbread wheelchair, and that gets you prime seats too! That’s this tier, you’re pulling one over by being able to get these guys so late. As for Lowe, I wrote a Brandon Lowe sleeper, but didn’t publish because I ran out of time. I also was afraid to tango with Cash that Lowe would get 550 ABs. I’m still drafting him, and am excited for it in daily leagues. Wanna drill down on Lowe’s underlying tools? Yes, what quality! Imagine the fun Rays reporters will have if Lowe takes home hardware at the end of the year. Sparking joy at the thought. His HR/FB% last year was 21.8%. Depends, of course, on the juiced ball and if every rinky dink popup travels 395 feet, but Brandon Lowe’s minor league rate was 25%, and he had a 18.8% in a small sample of his rookie year. He looks more like a 20% HR/FB guy, and with his 42% fly ball rate it would instantly give him 160 fly balls, and we’re up to 32 homers. So, can he do that, tell me already, right side of my brain! He was top 20 for barrels last year, averaging 403 feet/homer (455 max — whoa). He has a launch angle-y swing, that produces fly balls (42.9%). He has a pull-heavy swing, and hits everything hard while not being cheated. Guess what I’m saying is I don’t doubt his power. Platooning, and just his overall splits vs. lefties is a bit of a concern (.242 vs. lefties and only three homers), but, at 25 years old, and entering his third season, he can’t get better at all? That seems silly to think. He does have some legit swinging and missing tendencies. He was 4th worst in the league for swinging strike percentage, but that’s not a death sentence, Sister Helen Prejean. Also, in the bottom ten is Mondesi, Baez and Hiura. Lowe does need to lower his 34.6% strikeout rate otherwise he will give Cash reason to ruin everything around him. Thankfully, Lowe’s shown much better plate discipline previously. It’s going to come down to sheer number of plate appearances and his ability to face lefties. If he’s only passable vs. lefties, it would be enough for us, but might not be enough for Cash. If he lowers his strikeout rate to 27% (well within his ability), faces lefties 75% of the time (feels optimistic) and does everything else he’s capable of, he could be a 35/10/.275 hitter. Whee! That is likely pie-in-the-sky expectations though. 2020 Projections: 22/9/25/.257/3 in 167 ABs
22. Michael Chavis – Unlike some guys with insane Swinging Strike rates, I am actively trying to like Chavis, against my better judgement. He has that in common with B. Lowe, who is A. Bove. I’m aware of the strikeouts for Chavis, but it looks like he was rushed through the minors, and eventually will find his contact, as he goes into a season where he turns 25, I’m willing to gamble this is the year he finds it. There’s admittedly risk involved with this draft pick. 2020 Projections: 29/10/31/.249/2 in 190 ABs
23. Joc Pederson – He can’t hit lefties, so it’s going to hurt his counting stats, but when he’s in the lineup, he’s a lock for 30+ homers in about two-thirds of a season. Especially valuable in daily leagues where you can switch him in out. 2020 Projections: 26/11/23/.251/1 in 149 ABs
24. Ryan McMahon – This is an “if” the size of the Milky Way galaxy, but if he can adjust his swing, and hit more fly balls, he could hit 35 homers. He averages 415 feet per homer, but he hits everything like he’s trying to destroy anthills. “It was your uncle who hurt you, stop trying to punish your aunt.” That’s me pretending to be a psychiatrist in the Rockies clubhouse talking to McMahon. 2020 Projections: 27/10/32/.248/1 in 190 ABs
25. Renato Nunez – Honestly, if I didn’t think I’d be met with yawns and murmurs I would’ve wrote a Nunez sleeper. He has a fly ball rate and HR/FB% that are repeatable from his 31-homer previous year, but, yeah, I know what you’re thinking, he strikes out too much, right? Tricked ya! You fell for the oldest trick in the book, mon! He had a better strikeout rate than Goldschmidt. I already gave McMahon a possible 40 homers if he makes adjustments, but Nunez could hit 40 homers with just some luck (and .250). EEK! Sorry, my level of excitement for Nunez just jumped out of a closet and scared me. 2020 Projections: 27/12/34/.241 in 204 ABs
26. Christian Vazquez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Cron. I call this tier, “AirBnArby’s.” There’s a chance you could get murdered if you do an AirBnB at Arby’s. There’s also a chance you could sleep well and avoid bodily harm. This tier is risky because there’s no sure things here, but it’s also late enough so you shouldn’t have to worry about taking a gamble. As for Vazquez, went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2020 fantasy baseball.
27. Mark Canha – The next tier is just so bad that I bumped Canha into this tier, because, who knows, maybe his gains from last year can be held, but he feels like a part-time 17-homer hitter. 2020 Projections: 26/8/28/.261/1 in 158 ABs
28. C.J. Cron – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Tigers. This feels like the universe challenging Cron. Cron begged the universe to finally have a starting job, and the universe gave him the Tigers, where there’s literally no one to ever replace him. What a delightful morality tale! It’s A Cronderful Life.” And that’s me quoting me! 2020 Projections: 22/10/26/.262 in 194 ABs
29. Eric Hosmer – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Votto. I call this tier, “Driving with your airbag deployed.” By this tier name I mean, you’re being way too safe and it’s actually dangerous, because these guys are not good. As for Hosmer, no foolsies, the Padres should release Myers and Hosmer. They both forgot how to hit. Or someone needs to write instructions on how to hit on their body like the Memento guy. 2020 Projections: 25/7/27/.261/1 in 218 ABs
30. Evan White – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(White) signed a $24 million dollar, six-year deal with the Mariners. Since White was in Double-A as of last year, this is a good sign that the M’s consider him their 1st baseman for this year. Be interesting to see if they get their money’s worth on $24 million. I’m kidding. They made $24 million on Ichiro bobbleheads in the gift shop. They’re paying $24 million to Jay Bruce, Carlos Santana and Mike Leake, to play for other teams, and are worth $1.6 billion as a franchise. Every minor leaguer should get a million-dollar contract, so this doesn’t seem so special. Okay, enough of Woke Grey. White looks like a gap hitter with sneaky speed for a first baseman. In video I watched, he looked a little like a middle infielder. Possible outcomes for him in 2020 range from 20 homers and .275+ with five steals, which isn’t bad at all, to 13 HRs, .250 and being asked to take “driving the ball” courses from Austin Nola.” And that’s me quoting me! 2020 projections: 21/6/24/.263/1 in 171 ABs
31. Daniel Murphy – If you were to put his douchebaggery on an X axis, and his ability on the Y axis, they’ve finally crisscrossed. 2020 Projections: 25/6/28/.271 in 169 ABs
32. Garrett Cooper – Anyone have eyes on Cooper when he’s first going up to bat? Okay, if you do, check to see if he’s starting his swing already, because his 65.1% first pitch swinging is, well, something. Oh, and his ground ball rate? Okay, theory! He’s swinging a bat way too heavy for him, so he can’t hold it up and drops it at the first pitch like a mallet and knocks balls right into the ground. 2020 Projections: 21/6/24/.271 in 167 ABs
33. Travis d’Arnaud – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2020 fantasy baseball.
35. Trey Mancini – He still hits way too many ground balls, but he did up his launch angle and fly balls last year, and, because he can power out enough homers, he should be good for 28-30 homers and, enough line drives for a .275+ average. He’s a Chastian, but he’s so close to a BDH because I can see a scenario where he hits 25 homers and .260. UPDATE: Mancini is undergoing a procedure that the O’s said is “non-baseball related,” but “too sensitive to specifically mention,” and that he would be “out some time.” Each one of those quoted phrases are not what you want to hear. Hopefully, the vagueness isn’t as scary as it sounds. Don’t think you can draft him anywhere near his ADP until we hear more. UPDATE II: With all that’s going on in the world, and Mancini’s weakened immune system from cancer, I honestly don’t think we see him in 2020. I’ve removed him from the rankings. 2020 Projections: 36/11/42/.277/2 in 248 ABs
34. Miguel Cabrera – He has a guaranteed contract until 2023. *insert Michael Scott grimace* 2020 Projections: 23/6/25/.277 in 177 ABs
35. Yandy Diaz – Some look for a groundhog to signal the beginning of spring, but I look for the first fantasy baseball ‘pert writing an article about how Yandy can breakout. 2020 Projections: 22/6/20/.272/1 in 157 ABs
36. Ronald Guzman – You might remember that last year I said Ronald Guzman would be the guy who hit for the most power after pick 250 overall. Well, I could’ve said Mitch Garver, Max Kepler, Joc Pederson, Renato Nunez…Literally anyone else would’ve been more accurate, but I still believe in Guzman’s power. I don’t believe in anything else from him though. 2020 Projections: 20/8/23/.237/1 in 173 ABs
37. Brandon Belt – It’s far enough in the past now that I think I’m okay violating my NDA. Back in 2018, Belt made it to the All-Star Game Final Vote election. MLB decided to make it which player could get the most retweets. So, players were trying to be funny for the retweets, and my agent was friends with his agent, so they hired me to write tweets to get him in the All-Star Game. I’d ghostwrite them, and he’d tweet them out. At least in theory. I gave him about 25 variations of how he looks like the kid from Freaks and Geeks and maybe one play on Belt/Beltway because the game was in D.C. He decided not to use any of mine, and Jesus Aguilar went to the All-Star Game. Well, Aguilar is now being passed around from team to team like a journeyman so who is having the last laugh? No one actually, no one’s laughing. 2020 Projections: 26/6/25/.248/1 in 189 ABs
And Brandon Belt https://t.co/Z13K8c4OX8 pic.twitter.com/XqAMahMl53
— Razzball (@Razzball) September 25, 2019
38. Luke Voit – As we move further into this tier and towards the next one, we’re getting to the point where we’re going from full-time everyday starters to part-timers. As of right this second, I’d say Voit is a starter, but I could see that changing. By the way, how hard is it to project players? You don’t have to search Google very hard for articles about how terrible it was for the Cards to trade Voit from, like, twelve months ago! Now, the Yankees don’t even seem to want him and the Cards got Giovanny Gallegos, who looks awesome, i.e., no one knows anything. 2020 Projections: 20/7/22/.246 in 145 ABs
39. Niko Goodrum – The good news is if you draft him, Goodrum comes with his own chaser. The bad news is you’re the chaser and it’s on waivers for a decent 1st baseman. 2020 Projections: 23/6/20/.244/4 in 173 ABs
40. Wil Myers – He had a .344 BABIP and a .239 average. I will now cackle until the neighbors call the cops. 2020 Projections: 19/6/21/.231/4 in 131 ABs
41. Joey Votto – There should be a MLB rule that if you’re anywhere in the bottom of my rankings you can’t be a starter for a team. How many drinks to get Manfred to agree? I say one tall glass of juice. He loves that. 2020 Projections: 26/5/20/.264/1 in 183 ABs
42. Nate Lowe – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Osuna. I call this tier, “Ugly baby, but congratulations.” Well, you filled your 1st base slot, so that’s something, but you now own one of these guys. As for Lowe, you know that saying, “We make plans, God laughs?” For our purposes: We draft Rays hitters, and Cash laughs. Nate Lowe is going to play every day, right? *in the distance, we here Cash laughing* I’m not even sure Lowe starts the year with the Rays after they signed Tsutsugo. Okay, Cash, stop laughing! 2020 Projections: 15/6/18/.277 in 112 ABs
43. Ryan Mountcastle – Already gave you my Ryan Mountcastle fantasy. It was written on the side of my neighbor’s car in key. UPDATE: Mountcastle was optioned to the minors, because the Orioles are the worst franchise. 2020 Projections: 12/5/15/.252/1 in 112 ABs
44. Eric Thames – Platoons are a funny thing, aren’t they? You’re drafting a guy who you think is on the strong side of a platoon, he ends up on the wrong side and then you’re pfft’d out of luck. On second thought, that’s not funny. That’s just sad. 2020 Projections: 20/7/22/.241/1 in 161 ABs
45. Howie Kendrick – In a strange turn of events, Kendrick has turned into what we thought Joey Votto would turn into, i.e., Joey’s joey is Howie. In a stranger turn of events, Kendrick is now on the wrong side of a platoon with Thames? Could that be? I don’t know, and, if I’m being honest, I don’t care. 2020 Projections: 16/6/17/.304/1 in 139 ABs
46. Jake Bauers – Merely six posts on the front of this post-post-post-post-post-post-hype sleeper. Still has a ways to go to even come close to Brett Lawrie’s ten posts. 2020 Projections: 19/6/21/.237/3 in 149 ABs
47. Ji-Man Choi – Fun fact! In South Korea, the Feds are called, Ji-Men, and their laugh sounds like Hehe-seop. Ji-Man is worth chasing for power, and if you’re playing Pokemon Go. 2020 Projections: 19/6/21/.262/1 in 153 ABs
48. Mitch Moreland – Re-signed with the Red Sox. Noooooooooooo–how many O’s is that? Twelve? Hmm, ooo. Fifteen O’s! That’s like Lenn Sakata’s Xmas card list! Damn, this is gonna kill Jose Peraza’s value. Moreland goes to 1st, Chavis to 2nd and Peraza to the bench, at least vs. righties. 2020 Projections: 20/7/24/.248 in 149 ABs
49. Daniel Vogelbach – Could see Vogelbach coming into this season hungry. Could also see The Jelly Donut of Swat going into the bathroom hungry. Going into his car hungry. Going into an elevator hungry. I mean, where isn’t he hungry? 2020 Projections: 18/9/22/.217 in 137 ABs
50. Ryan O’Hearn – Could be on the strong side of the O’Hearn/McBroom platoon, which wins the Guinness Book of World Records for Platoon Which Sounds Most Likely To Be Drinking A Guinness. Top of the morning to you, Royals platoon! 2020 Projections: 16/6/18/.245 in 139 ABs
51. Victor Caratini – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2020 fantasy baseball.
52. Austin Nola – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2020 fantasy baseball.
53. Jose Osuna – For this Pirates player to breakout, he needs a trade to the Astros or Rays and to become a pitcher. For those wondering if Osuna can replace Marte in the outfield, here’s that gloriousness in tweet form. 2020 Projections: 13/4/16/.269 in 106 ABs
Jose Osuna coming in to replace Starling Marte: pic.twitter.com/HxEzdLAh5Q
— Razzball (@Razzball) January 27, 2020
54. Rio Ruiz – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “Worst than lava.” Lava is the worst material to find on your floor, but, somehow, these guys’ floors are worst. As for Ruiz, in my crystal ball, I see Ruiz breaking out and the Crabtowners of Baltimore calling their team, the RiO’s. I also bought this crystal ball from Spencer’s Gifts so not sure how much I trust it. 2020 Projections: 14/6/16/.251/1 in 135 ABs
56. Jake Lamb – With Christian Walker and Lamb, are the Diamondbacks fielding a team or a nativity scene? Hmm, they did get rid of Joseph, so not sure. I flunked catechism. UPDATE: With the Starling Marte trade, he appears squeezed for playing time, and he’s been removed. 2020 Projections: 43/15/48/.227/2 in 407 ABs
55. Willians Astudillo – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2020 fantasy baseball.
56. Jonathan Lucroy – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2020 fantasy baseball.
57. Jay Bruce – Get ready for Bruce to put up 34 homers before the break and then hit negative seven homers after the break. Happens every year. 2020 Projections: 13/7/16/.220 in 103 ABs
58. Dominic Smith – Big question is will he get as much playing time as the little kid playing baseball with Jesus in the tattoo on his arm? 2020 Projections: 11/6/16/.271 in 101 ABs
59. Josh VanMeter – Can’t tell currently if VanMeter is being willed into playing time by fantasy baseballers because everyone would prefer him to Votto, Kyle Farmer, Philip Ervin, Winker, Lorenzen, Galvis–Damn, how many guys do the Reds have to play a corner outfield spot or 2nd base? If VanMeter can sneak out 500+ at-bats, he could have a 20/15 season, but that ‘if’ is larger than the cumulative weight of everyone who gets confused when to use “whom.” 2020 Projections: 11/3/14/.253/2 in 94 ABs
60. Albert Pujols – Seeing some talk that La Stella could be the 1st base starter, but that’s with Ohtani as the DH, and he’ll be pitching and playing 2nd base (remember, Joe Maddon is now there), and La Stella will be benched for Michael Hermosillo (again, Maddon). 2020 Projections: 16/6/20/.237 in 150 ABs
61. Jeimer Candelario – If you drafted Ji-Man and Jeimer on the same fantasy team, you might be Jesse Jackson. 2020 Projections: 20/6/21/.228/1 in 164 ABs
62. Jesus Aguilar – The rightful Final Vote winner for the 2018 All-Star Game. Hey, what’s fair is fair, he had better tweets. Here’s what I said when he was claimed by the Marlins, “They might’ve got Jesus as a backup plan because everyone says Miami will be underwater in 10 years and he can walk on it.” And that’s me quoting me! 2020 Projections: 14/6/17/.247 in 125 ABs
63. Justin Smoak – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Brewers. They are going full poor man’s 2019 LeMahieu-to-Yankees by bringing five position players for each spot. Will shorten a ‘poor man’s 2019 LeMahieu-to-Yankees’ as it’s used more. Maybe a 2019 2Many LeMans. Is that less letters? Who’s to say? Stop counting letters, I don’t want to know. Not only will Smoak not get full-time at-bats, but with shizzload of position players brought in, I’m not worried about guys who should be assured playing time like Braun, Cain, Urias and, yes, even Hiura.” And that’s, well, you know. 2020 projections: 10/6/13/.231 in 115 ABs
64. Ryon Healy – Signed with the Brewers. Feels like he could have a Travis Shaw-type season. Your inner monologue, “Does he mean an MVP-type season like he predicted for Shaw last year or Shaw’s actual season, which was the worst season in the history of baseball?” That, young Jedi, you have to figure out on your own. Or infer from my projections for him: 2020 Projections: 15/5/16/.234 in 113 ABs
65. Rowdy Tellez – Was thisclose to doing a sleeper on Rowdy. Would’ve been fitting, since Rowdy had one of the best sleepers in the business. RIP, you absolute nutcase. Thankfully, I didn’t write the sleeper, because Travis Shaw and his always-being-a-possible-MVP self was signed there, crowding the infield. 2020 Projections: 12/4/14/.236 in 112 ABs
66. Marwin Gonzalez – Don’t you always look at his name and think it’s Marvvin? No? Hmm, maybe it’s me. 2020 Projections: 11/4/12/.257 in 87 ABs
67. Matt Thaiss – Seems like the horse before the cart, but for serious Thaiss action it will have to go through the Pujols. 2020 Projections: 11/4/13/.264/1 in 76 ABs
where wood Ryan Braun land ob yer list?
Around Joc Pederson
I was counting on Rhys to be my 1B for several years in dynasty points league, but now he seems like he’ll be C Davis like – HR or bust…. wasn’t he a solid contact hitter coming up? Time to look for other options?
Think he was always a .260 hitter, now he’s a .245 one, but he could get lucky on BABIP
Another trade offer
I am ok with the bats, but is Sheff too much?
This guy right here has Matt Olson as his bat keeper for this season….. Starting off strong, Lothario!
Trade Franmil for Bauer?
Other owner wants
Hey Grey! Keep forever ($260 budget roto, $3 annual inflation):
Would you prefer Pete Alonso at $15 or Austin Meadows at $11? Close or nah?
I think you have to go Alonso..
Alonso, close-ish, I guess
Thanks both of you!
Olsen at the right price or take someone 13-17 that drops. I might take a flyer on McMahon just to do the drug that is playing in a weekly H2H with a player hitting in Coors.
Gotta love that HCI — hot Coors injection
OK, so call me stupid, but I don’t understand the sleeper and absolute nutcase reference in the Rowdy Tellez blurb.
So who is this person and why are they a nutcase, and are they dead?
I’m confoosed. :o(
Rowdy Roddy Piper used the sleeper hold and he’s dead
I could see Rowdy staying at an AirBnArby’s
So much roughhousing there!
Howdy all . . .
What say you on the following deal: P. Alonso or W. Franco & T. Bauer; 10 Team 5×5, Keep 8, No Budgets ?
May actually draft him this year, instead of waiting until week 8 to pick him off the wire. He does go through some soul-sucking slumps though.
Haha, you will drop him by April 15th if you draft him
12 Team H2H Keeper league.
trade Bichetti Whit 4 Turner Luzardo. Which Side is better? now and in 3-4 years.
Who are these players?
Bichette, Whit Merrifield 4 Trea Turner, Jesus Luzardo.
Rankings are back!! I love it!
Gray, what kind of player can i get for Soroka?
Keeper league. 12 Team H2H. Hes my 10th keeper and wouldn’t mind trading him. Your regression ferries comments in past post scare me.. Maybe Whit straight up? just worry those SB will be gone..
Mancini-ish, Luis Robert? Matt Chapman?
My prediction is Mike Ford and Edwin Rios will both crash the top 40 by years end. For the record!!!
Edwin Rios? Wow, that’s bold
I like that Ford prediction. With Voit getting hurt a lot, I think Ford can become the fulltime 1B in The Bronx.
I hope we’re right!
Me too, I just got Ford as a throw in, in a trade I made!
He seems like a great gamble in deep leagues! Shhh, Grey!!!
Wow getting my swagger jacked already!!!
I done mentioned Mike Ford in Laura’s deep sleeper post where Voit was reccomended a few days ago.
I know y’all read that too.
Did you hear anything about Trout regarding using HGH
Seen something on Twitter that Trout takes it for a thyroid condition..they do have pics of his head being about twice the size it was when he first came into mlb.
But who knows, Twitter is a mess right now with buzzer gate and burner accounts etc..
Haha, yeah, not sure… As long as Trout isn’t wearing buzzers, we good!
Bleh, that’s nonsense
Just some clown who took pics,one close up, the other further back to give illusion of size diff..
Ha, yeah, it’s silly
Now buzzers in jerseys haha jeez
Need a top 20 cheater list for a true fantasy edge these days
Haha, Bregman is #1!
Got a good feeling Js. Abreu will be like the conductor of the orchestra guiding the likes of youngsters Moncada, Robert, Eloy, etc. on his way to a big season.
On the lower end, like Canha a bit. Started ’19 as a part-timer/platoon guy BUT Canha played everyday in the 2nd half and actually hit .297 vs RHP on the season.
From July 1st on, Melvin played him 66 out of 69 games, he hit .301 mostly batting cleanup. Feel like he could be a sleepy producer
And of course, if you wait too long on OF’s (like I did – ha) think he is a solid option late
Love all that you do brother-man – keep’em coming!
Thanks! I worry Canha is really a part-timer and will be again this year with Piscotty
If its an OBP league, where would Carlos Santana rank?
We have OBP rankings https://razzball.com/playerrater-preseason-espnmlb12-5X5obp/
Awesome stuff Grey! Keeper question… Forever keep 7-10 .. 5×5 Roto … plus 10 farm … Anything less than 10 kept enters me into Supplemental Draft until I have 10 … I also own the 1st pick in MLB draft … and I just Took Vaughn 1st in Minors Draft … what would you do ? I have for sure:
2. K Marte
8-10 (or none)
Thank you as always!
Thanks! How many teams? Prolly keep Urias and Swanson, but hard to say without more info
12 teamer … my bad
Meh, your last three are pretty borderline then, could see going with 7 if decent stuff in draft, so will there be?
I have been trying to log in for a long time and have been unable to. My name is Jack. My email is [email protected] I have forgotten my user name and password. HELP!!!!!!
Rudy responded to your last comment in the bullpen post
As per requested, re-posting in new post. Will remember that for future. Thanks in advance.
Guy upped his offer. Instead of Puk he is including Franco.
Vlad $6 OY 20
Franco $1 OY 21
Kirilloff $4 OY 21
Andujar $9 OY 20
If I take this, I am looking to compete in a couple of years. I already traded away all my bargains (except Vlad), so I don’t have an advantage going into the current season.
Maybe I should just buy into every sleeper and prospect at auction and tank it until 2022 and start a dynasty around Franco and Kirilloff, Luis or Lewis, Brujan, etc. At least that is what I tell myself.
Thanks! Makes it easier for me then going back and forth between posts… I’d want Wander side now
Great list – also feels like 1-2 guys from those lower tiers (Cron?) could surprise us with some big numbers. Cron’s finally full time, should be hitting cleanup, and dirt cheap. Seems like he’ll be going for pennies on the dollar compared to even a same-ish level guy like Voit.
Cron feels like one of those guys who hits 30 HRs in 350 ABs or 550 ABs, but we’ll see
I hope so, I am grabbing him everywhere on the cheap.
Totally. I’m keeping a ton of expensive top guys in one league, so definitely hunting the bargain bins for the rest of my roster. Cron begrudgingly feels like one of those guys . . . though who knows, maybe people are snoozing on Walker and Dozier.
I like Andujar, he won’t be in any positional ranks tho (UTIL elig)
Oh that’s a great one too. He’ll end up somewhere with a role (and maybe even just prevalent on the Yanks). How about Andujar to COL for Gray?
I love that! Andujar in Col, Arenado to NYY
Call up Cash!
I could see Cash wanting that, kinda great for both teams and players, tbh
I know we a long way away from pitchers but any chance you can give me a quick thought on Snell? You think he returns to form?
Snell will be talked about extensively in the top 20 SPs
OOoooohhhhhh the Olson rank is incredible. I am now all in. Keeper question. Keep 5:
I know Beuhler is not in the top 21 and the other 5 guys are, but is it smart in a 10 teamer to keep 1 SP? I am sure I’d be fine drafting a bunch of SP2s and 3s.
Let’s get this money!
Draft an SP 1st pick and go bats
Thanks. So wise.
only be worried about keeping 5/5 of keepers and non of them are SP in like a 16 teamer where it’s far harder to get any top 30ish SP at all. much less 2 of them or more. maybe a 14 that’s a worry too. it would depend on how high up the hitter keepers are.
1b rankings are the gangster rankings. There’s some places you straight up don’t want to go, but when you pick the right one in the middle rounds you FEEL like a gangster. There are some dudes (Sano) who can drop bombs and make you feel like a gangster.
Ha, perfect. Nice!
Bruhhhhh. So i see “top 20” is just a formality this year. LOL.
My boy Muncy! If somehow i miss Olson, Muncy is may be my next stop. that position flexibility tho, mhmmmm.
With you on Lowe, last year i compared his batting profile to Baez too, with a bit less AVG. Javito? Baezito? Beto?
Yeah, top 20, to schmenty!
Muncy looks like a legit 35-homer guy, who would’ve thunk it?
Yeah, I kinda want Lowe in a few places, his splits are scary tho with Cash
Yeah I’m hoping due to Muncy now having a full season of above avg defensive metrics that Roberts gives him 155+ game starts this year. 40 HR def in reach, and he’s really solid for leagues with OBP.
Yeah Cash is def a concern, as is the shituation in MN now with Sano, hope he does better at 1B, right now i feel like hes a borderline DH/CI until we see things sort out more. I’m optimistic he does fine, seems more motivated now with contract…
“I think with the money that I’m getting now, I’m going to go ahead and build a good nucleus of people around me, hire people that can help me like a masseuse and people that can help me with training, besides having what I have here with the organization,” Sano said. “I think it’s important for me now that to think about what I did last year, if I play an entire season, I can probably double those numbers.”
I will say this about Roberts, he gives like 12 hitters like 150+ games and manages to work a 7 man rotation
I’m freaked on Sano, has smellings of trouble
Oh Damn… Beltran just got canned too. burner account and all, ha. so much for his “clear the air” campaign.
HAHA, really? Oh man, the Mets are special
I don’t mind 1B this year to some degree. Not as top heavy as years ago, but a little deeper than last year. The top 7 are solid, even 8/Goldy at the right price. Then you get into some choppy waters from DJ to Sano. But at least Sano has the tasty upside. But like you said, SP’s have to be drafted sometime! It allows me to avoid some risk while addressing other needs.
I can see adding Joc and another Gingerbread Wheelchair for a platoon at 1B, but ideally at UTIL… BTW – love that you have Mountcastle grouped with those guys. You’ve gotta believe the O’s do the right thing with Davis at some point this year.
You absolutely have to think the O’s do the right thing, right? I mean, they have to! I hope…
Yeah, the gingerbread wheelchairs aren’t bad
The O’s do the right thing?
Yeah, I know
votto + fantasy = :'(
me = :'(
Aw, sall good, sorry, man
My man, good list. I could see LeMahieu hitting your projections and I can also see him leading the league in runs batting leadoff for a monster Yankee lineup.
Smoak I could also see getting at bats and having a decent bounce back year. His peripherals were not awful last year and he is basically free. If he gets the playing time he could hit 30 in generic American lager park.
Or Smoak gets 175 ABs and is a platoon player that’s unrosterable in any league… I could see an injury in front of him and him doing fine, but he needs PT
Not sure on DJ, his 2020 screams career year
Excuse me, his *2019
Time traveling Grey is confirmed
Seriously though he gets on base at a fairly good clip, has good base running skills and has an insane lineup around him. Even batting first he is going to have plenty of RBI opportunities with whoever the bottom of that lineup will be.
HRs you are probably right
Smoak definitely will be fighting for at bats but I would be picking him in an NFBC type format
Yeah, agreed, we’re on same page… All about those ABs
14-Team H2H OBP Keep 6 Forever League;
Have to choose between Hoskins or G. Sanchez for my last keeper. Hoskins’ value shifts greatly using OBP instead of AVG but not sure if it’s enough. Which would you choose?
Other keepers: Trea, Judge, Rendon, Yordan, Bieber
WHAT’S UP PARTY PEOPLE?!
Early leader for comment thread of the year right here, good work Grey!!
As both an Angel fan and someone with the maturity of a 12 year old let me be probably not the first to say:
I suspect we will look back on the upcoming year as the year of American League 1b sleeper breakout. There are just so many “maybe, if” guys that I have to be at least somewhat right….some of these guys will have good years – right???
Maybe, I do like Sano, and Chavis, Mountcastle, White and Antana are interesting
Yuli too high for my taste, he’s 35 and I’m betting on a return to 15-20 hr’s. There’s probably 10 guys after him I’d rather take a shot with.
2nd half last year a product of cheating scandel?
Meh, maybe, but his 2nd half was insane, have to give him some credit for it… I’m not drafting him either tho
Grey- you’re like a god to me but I can’t BELIEVE how low Louis Voitbombs is here…
Not to freak you out, but Voit might be a part-timer by June
yeah did ford get traded or something, figured he’d be in here since i’d think that’s what the voit playing time worry is about.
And if Giancarlo, Andujar and Judge are healthy, they have too many guys
yeah like last year (before massive injury wave)
Great write up, Grey!
Looks like plenty of Streaming options at 1st base. Good to know.
Whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa… you are telling me Jessica Chastain is NOT the actress from Jurassic World?!?!?!?!? I just had to look this up. Bro forget fantasy knowledge, you’ve gone full koolaid man on this website’s knowledge cubbyhole. What is with redheads and hollyweird in the 2000s? Lindsay Lohan, Emma Stone, Chastain, this three named red head you just taught me was a new individual, Amy Adams, Isla Fisher, Anna Kendrick, Julianne Moore, Christina Hendricks… just off the top of my head…
Couple things –
Going 69 1Bs deep is an interesting place to stop. Anytime Candelario isn’t the very bottom of the list, it’s a severely deep list.
Give me Votto over Hosmer. I’d rather pay for a has been than a never was in the power department… but don’t give me either of them on a non -20 team league…
Sano-Walker range is going to be my comfort zone this year. Unless there’s a better value that falls.
Hmm…Is she not? Damn, I’ve confused myself!
Ya know, Cougs is a redhead…Well, was…Nah, I kid! Kinda
Votto’s super bleh and looks done, I’m out
Sano-Walker is butter
Yuli at 11 is aggressive , I can’t imagine drafting him as a starter in a 12 teamer
Travis d’Arnaud above anyone … yikes
D’Arnaud is around 300th overall, and barely a number #1 catcher in 12 team leagues…He’s above people, but they’re not great options either
Like Gurriel, plays everyday (sat only 8 games) produces in a potent lineup and hits .290+ dude is a grinder playing for a contract & qualifies at 3B. Had career year in ’19 but ’20 should still be solid…
Im in a 12 team mixed league.
So am I looking at drafting a 1b from the elite guys or the pants on head tier? Then a CI from the sleeper or Chastian tier?
That could work
Picture of needle that says “razzball content”
Picture of my arm and with my sleeve rolled up.
This seems like a few more than 20…
same as every year, it’s a good thing (would you rather wait longer on the deeper guys with blurbs?)
Thank you, IBS
Said nobody ever. Too easy!
My counting function…is…mal…functioning
LeMahieu @ $5 or E.Escobar @ $9. Many tanks
And that’s me quoting me!
LaRockakis is pretty solid too
ManRockakis! Ya know, you might consider a name change
Mancini has a long way to go before he reaches goat status like Markakis, but he’s on pace!
He’s a bleating hero! Maybe that’s gyro with goat…Hmm…
Y Moncada or K Hiura? I know they both had high BABIP. Who do you think is better this year? long term? Thanks!
Also Albies. I have a chance to draft one in a dynasty. Thanks again.
Ya know, I like Albies a lot
Hiura, but close
Amazing to see how far Miggy and Pujols have fallen. Both top 5 picks years ago who can hit for power and average. I can’t believe they give away these long term contracts like that
yet so many show up and say how happy they are as fans when g.cole signs for that much money for that long…. (not saying you of course).
Teams have to pay 10 years for 4-6 good years, it’s how the business is now
Yeah, been about five years in the making, Dan O