Here’s what I said previously, “Cavan Biggio will be promoted today to join Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Soon, Bichette will join Guerrero and Biggio and the Jays’ master plan to reunite the 2005 All-Star Game in the luxury boxes will be complete.  “How’s Darin Erstad Jr. look?” “More like Darin Ersatz!” “I don’t get it.” “Ersatz means an inferior substitute.”  “Is that some thinking man’s humor? I don’t like that.” That was overheard in the Jays’ front office. Here’s what Prospect Mike said about Biggio this preseason, ‘At 23, Biggio had a solid 2018 campaign at Double-A. He hit .252 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and a walk rate of nearly 18%. He has the pedigree and patience to make it in the pros and the power to hit 20-25 homers, but he also strikes out a lot and I’m not sure what position he’ll end up at. This could mean he ultimately finds a role as a super-utility type like a Swiss Army knife. Speaking of which, anyone know where Grey is, I want to harvest his liver.’ Hey, c’mon! This year, Biggio cut down on his Ks, and held his walks, hitting .306 in Triple-A, while adding in his usual mix of power and speed.” And that’s me quoting me and quoting Prospect Mike! It’s all super accurate information, so digest it. Digest my milkshake, as a not-100%-accurate foreign translation of There Will Be Blood would say. Digest it up! So, what can we expect from Cavan Biggio in 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Last year, Cavan Biggio went 16/14/.238 in 354 ABs. First off, that average is concerning or nah? Nah nah, as in nah, it’s not. Quadruple negatives be damned! He had a 28.6% strikeout rate, which is high, but this is standard stuff for a prospect to be called up and get eaten alive at first. To grab one super random name, Kris Bryant had a 30-plus strikeout rate in his first season. It’s been about 23% since. Biggio’s .309 BABIP last year was a bit low for his speed (28.3 sprint speed). Also, his 12.4% soft contact would’ve been bottom 25 in the majors if he qualified, i.e., he hits the ball harder than most. As you can imagine, there’s not a ton of guys who hit the ball hard who are also anchored with a low BABIP. Evan Longoria (but he’s flat-footed) and Khris Davis, who hits fly balls, which brings us to a small concern for Biggio. He’s got a top ten launch angle, which means he hits a ton of fly balls. That’s not great. That’s going to limit his BABIP, batting average and damage he can do with his speed. He’s eighth for fly ball percentage, right with Gary Sanchez and Rougned Odor — bonus points for me mentioning Rougned Odor in a sleeper post for the tenth year in a row. So, Biggio’s batting average will be better, but doubtful it’s a positive attribute. The launch angle and fly balls mean he will hit his share of homers. He hit 26 homers in 2018 in Double-A, and 22 homers between Triple-A and majors last year. He’ll only be 25 at the start of 2020 and the power is increasing. He averaged 225 feet on his fly balls last year, which was the 2nd best for a launch angle in the top ten, only coming in 2nd to Mike Trout. Who? I have no idea, but I heard he’s good. Biggio could hit 30 homers easily, but feels like a lock for 24-plus. Finally, his speed. It does not blow — “What’s that?” Nothing, Ron Washington. — Biggio was only caught stealing once in 20 tries in 2019 (5/6 in AAA, 14/14 in MLB), and will be in a place where opportunities for steals will be in abundance, because, honestly, what else are the Jays doing? They’re at least two years away, so they’ll give their young players lots of at-bats and opportunities to prove themselves on the basepaths. Not getting caught will only enhance Biggio’s chances — enchances? — which is great for us. For 2020, I’ll give Cavan Biggio projections of 71/25/78/.246/20 in 571 ABs with a chance for more.

 
  1. Ante Galic says:
    (link)

    Grey!!!

    Great Sleeper report!!

    a. Kudos for your 10-year anniversary of mentioning Odor as a sleeper. Well done!

    b. Uh, sorry to mention it. You indicate in your great report ‘He averaged 225 feet on fly balls…’ Was that 325 feet or 425 feet or really 225 feet? 225 feet sounds like his average on fly balls in little league when he was 6 but what do I know!

    c. In my porn fantasy keeper forever league, would appreciate your opinion (and everyone else who wants to throw in a kind word) on this trade I made yesterday.

    I get

    Brooklyn Chase

    I give

    Amber Chase
    Brooklyn Gray

    I used DT’s two rules of thumb in analyzing the trade.

    1. Make sure you get the best player (Done)
    2. Always try to flip 2 for 1 (Done)

    So, done and done a good deal, right?

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
      (link)

      I think in a porn star league you might rather have 2

      • Ante Galic says:
        (link)

        DT!!

        Thanks for your comments, man. Though I’m saddened by your indictment of my trade. It hurts.

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Donkey brings up a good point… If there’s no roster size, I’d pick up everyone

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      A. Haha, thanks!

      B. Nah, in a average fly ball way, that’s high, just showing he’s strong, for a young MI

      C. Is this an only Brooklyn league? Make the trade or drop Brooklyn Gray, she shouldn’t even be owned (it’s actually against the law)

      • Ante Galic says:
        (link)

        Grey!!

        b. Ok, gotcha! Thanks alot for the explanation. Flyball distance, got it. Shows he’s got the power. I was thinking of average distance, my bad.

        c. No not just a Brooklyn league. I thought you might pick up on the Brooklyn Chase=Brookyln Gray+Amber Chase nuance but I digress. This will be the last porn reference herein in 2019.

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          B. No problem
          c. Damn, 1st and last porn reference, what a tease!

          • Ante Galic says:
            (link)

            Grey!!

            Only 2019 last reference. 2020 is a-comin’! Damn, almost another reference.

            Cheers,
            Ante

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Haha

    • knucks says:
      (link)

      2020 is the year of porn star quotes Ante, don’t let us down.

      Just don’t let the wife catch you doing any “research”.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Ante in June, “Hey, you’re not the pizza man.” Okay, in a rush, so will see you tomorrow with the next quote!

      • Ante Galic says:
        (link)

        Knucks!!!

        a. Yeah, no. That won’t wouldn’t work even though God knows I know a lot of porn quotes – like Britney Amber: ‘You said just a few pumps.’ – but I digress. Random MLB quote of the day will be great.

        b. For instance, chant heard in 1992 at Skydome by a group of young teenage girls.

        ‘1, 2, 3….We love you Robbie!’ Alomar was all the rage in 1992 in Toronto.

        See, not bad, right?

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Haha

        • Unagi says:
          (link)

          I know the exact scene you’re talking about!

  2. Dave D says:
    (link)

    That is Darin Turdstad Jr. to you mister! Ha, nice write up. Im think about my team names this year with our draft starting this afternoon. Hopefully we can bang out a couple rounds the first day.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Haha, Turdstad sounds like an Eastern European country that may or may not still be around

      I’m hoping to get two picks by this time tomorrow, we shall see!

      • Dave D says:
        (link)

        They launder money in Turdstad.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          They call money there, Turduckets

          • Dave D says:
            (link)

            Exactly. Btw, I will be in a meeting when the draft starts so I put my first pick on auto. I should be around again about an hour after the start.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              No worries, I might be out to lunch when my pick comes… I’m not gonna stress people not drafting immediately…

  3. Curious George says:
    (link)

    Hey grey (and DT or anyone else with an opinion!) – I chatted with you the other day about how people are way overvaluing ohtani/are one year early (due to likely innings limit this year, etc). Follow up question – is there any point in drafts this year where you would grab him? He is a good hitter (albeit with some questionable/variable splits). Smada data has his early adp at 54, fantrax has it at 72. I’ve got pick 13.8 (128) and he is still available… thoughts? Also: love me some Biggio this year – can’t wait for the rest of the sleepers!

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
      (link)

      Hey George,

      I’m a big Ohtani fan but his value is very format dependent. If you’re taking him around 50-70 it has to be a daily league where you can move him around. But 128 sounds like great value even in a weekly league. I think he’ll get around 100-120 innings with a nice offensive contribution.

      • Curious George says:
        (link)

        Best ball points league. You like the value at 128?

        • Donkey Teeth

          Donkey Teeth says:
          (link)

          Best ball he’s only a hitter, right? I think it’s a decent spot for him still…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m not going near Ohtani this year, too many unknowns, though, of course, at a certain point, everyone’s worth owning… Ohtani’s going around 75, it’s too early

      • Curious George says:
        (link)

        I agree that 75 is too early. But in a 10 team best ball points league at 128 overall are you in or out on ohtani? (Other options available include Gary Sanchez, lux, Sano, Moustakas)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I’m out

        • Smitty says:
          (link)

          Helium due to the Maddon effect – could put up good offensive #’s but way too high for my blood, especially as a UTL guy. Wouldn’t expect much at all from the pitching side
          Cavan right after Mercado…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I like Sano, Lux, even Sanchez over Ohtani

  4. Hernan says:
    (link)

    Biggio, Biggio, Biggio…., with all due respect, I totally disagree with you, lol, no way he’s a .250ish hitter, more like a 280ish one…( I’ll take the Over in all those projections) ” a chance for a lot , Lot More….., line drive rate is 27/28 %, swinging outside the zone is 15/16 %, swinging strike % under 9%…., I think we’re looking at a Cody Bellinger type breakout, obviously less homers, but more steals…., Good Luck today in Draft!!!!!!! , can’t wait

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
      (link)

      .280 seems like an aggressive projection. Feels closer to his ceiling than his median outcome. I’ll guess .250 – .260 range.

      • Hernan says:
        (link)

        We’ll see, I expect adjustments that will correct his flyball and pull happy tendencies, take more advantage of that speed , plate. discipline and contact rates….

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      “More” covers all of this! Kidding, yeah, I hope I’m underestimating him, he’s going crazy late as of right now…

      Good luck to you too! Hopefully I get at least one pick today

      • Hernan says:
        (link)

        LOL, Grey, with the excitement created (2nd league needed) about drafting this soon, I think you easily get at least 2 players, maybe the east/west coast thing is a factor, but still…., with no Donkey clogging the lanes , I think I’ll go smooth

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, thank god we avoided the Donkey clog!

  5. William Hung says:
    (link)

    Biggio + Adalberto Mondesi = what a 2B/SS combo for fantasy

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Pretty sexy

      • Bamabterry says:
        (link)

        Thats mine in the NFBC 50 im in currently. Loving the value on both this year. I got mondesi with the 12th pick in rd3 at the front end of the turn, then stole biggio with the 12th pick in rd11.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Nice!

  6. Sweatpants Nation says:
    (link)

    Mariners sign Evan White long term.
    Think this will speed up his arrival? They’re kinda dog balls at first. He has promise and is a good fielder so it might keep him in the lineup (like Chapman when he first came up)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      For sure, doubt he’s held down at all now

  7. The Great Knoche says:
    (link)

    Ended up talking myself into Bellinger.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      What a disaster you created! (Kidding)

      • The great Knoche says:
        (link)

        And you got Turner. Who was the other guys I was considering at 4

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I’m surprised he fell to me

  8. Joe Shmoe says:
    (link)

    Hi Mr. Grey,
    Quick question for a dynasty team: who is the better long term keeper: m. Franco or m. Ford. They both have their warts but I am wondering if ford has more upside at this point. I would hate to drop Franco…
    Thank you for your thoughts.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Neither? I guess Ford

  9. The Great Knoche says:
    (link)

    Like Turner/Alonso combo. Top Pitching went fast.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, I’m pretty happy with that, if they do anything close to last year, you have to like that speed/power combo coming out of the 1st two rounds

      What did you draft?

      • The Great Knoche says:
        (link)

        Bellinger, Mondesi, Torres

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Nice! Pretty sexy 1st three… I was between about 10 guys with my third pick… Kinda wanted to go Bogaerts, but having Trea pushed me towards Ketel

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Plus him having OF elgib. didn’t hurt

            • The Great Knoche says:
              (link)

              Yeah was between Torres and Boegarts, multi position on Torres was the decider. Little worried about ABs

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Yeah, multi-pos can be so helpful in these leagues

  10. The Great Knoche says:
    (link)

    You won’t be crazy about this end of the board.. Paddack I love, but felt it was early for him, and didn’t see him coming back to me.

    Hader, I know you hate early closers, but looking at the hitters that will be available around pick 90 when It comes back there just isn’t a huge difference it value. As long as His arm doesn’t fall off his Ks can be that of a 5th starter while getting saves and great ERA and WHIP. Him and Yates weren’t making it back so I pulled the trigger.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, you’re right, I didn’t love those picks… Understandable though… I have no idea which way I’m going…

      • The Great Knoche says:
        (link)

        Yeah I see how you’re struggling with the decision.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I think I forgot to set my auto pick one round, oops

          • The Great Knoche says:
            (link)

            Meh. I stopped getting frustrated by these a long time ago. Plus this early I need time to process anyway. We’ve got 5 months.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Hah, yeah, same here, everyone can take 4 HRs if they want… which would be a Dee Gordon career high, I believe

Comments are closed.