Here’s what I said previously, “Cavan Biggio will be promoted today to join Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Soon, Bichette will join Guerrero and Biggio and the Jays’ master plan to reunite the 2005 All-Star Game in the luxury boxes will be complete.  “How’s Darin Erstad Jr. look?” “More like Darin Ersatz!” “I don’t get it.” “Ersatz means an inferior substitute.”  “Is that some thinking man’s humor? I don’t like that.” That was overheard in the Jays’ front office. Here’s what Prospect Mike said about Biggio this preseason, ‘At 23, Biggio had a solid 2018 campaign at Double-A. He hit .252 with 26 homers, 20 steals, and a walk rate of nearly 18%. He has the pedigree and patience to make it in the pros and the power to hit 20-25 homers, but he also strikes out a lot and I’m not sure what position he’ll end up at. This could mean he ultimately finds a role as a super-utility type like a Swiss Army knife. Speaking of which, anyone know where Grey is, I want to harvest his liver.’ Hey, c’mon! This year, Biggio cut down on his Ks, and held his walks, hitting .306 in Triple-A, while adding in his usual mix of power and speed.” And that’s me quoting me and quoting Prospect Mike! It’s all super accurate information, so digest it. Digest my milkshake, as a not-100%-accurate foreign translation of There Will Be Blood would say. Digest it up! So, what can we expect from Cavan Biggio in 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Last year, Cavan Biggio went 16/14/.238 in 354 ABs. First off, that average is concerning or nah? Nah nah, as in nah, it’s not. Quadruple negatives be damned! He had a 28.6% strikeout rate, which is high, but this is standard stuff for a prospect to be called up and get eaten alive at first. To grab one super random name, Kris Bryant had a 30-plus strikeout rate in his first season. It’s been about 23% since. Biggio’s .309 BABIP last year was a bit low for his speed (28.3 sprint speed). Also, his 12.4% soft contact would’ve been bottom 25 in the majors if he qualified, i.e., he hits the ball harder than most. As you can imagine, there’s not a ton of guys who hit the ball hard who are also anchored with a low BABIP. Evan Longoria (but he’s flat-footed) and Khris Davis, who hits fly balls, which brings us to a small concern for Biggio. He’s got a top ten launch angle, which means he hits a ton of fly balls. That’s not great. That’s going to limit his BABIP, batting average and damage he can do with his speed. He’s eighth for fly ball percentage, right with Gary Sanchez and Rougned Odor — bonus points for me mentioning Rougned Odor in a sleeper post for the tenth year in a row. So, Biggio’s batting average will be better, but doubtful it’s a positive attribute. The launch angle and fly balls mean he will hit his share of homers. He hit 26 homers in 2018 in Double-A, and 22 homers between Triple-A and majors last year. He’ll only be 25 at the start of 2020 and the power is increasing. He averaged 225 feet on his fly balls last year, which was the 2nd best for a launch angle in the top ten, only coming in 2nd to Mike Trout. Who? I have no idea, but I heard he’s good. Biggio could hit 30 homers easily, but feels like a lock for 24-plus. Finally, his speed. It does not blow — “What’s that?” Nothing, Ron Washington. — Biggio was only caught stealing once in 20 tries in 2019 (5/6 in AAA, 14/14 in MLB), and will be in a place where opportunities for steals will be in abundance, because, honestly, what else are the Jays doing? They’re at least two years away, so they’ll give their young players lots of at-bats and opportunities to prove themselves on the basepaths. Not getting caught will only enhance Biggio’s chances — enchances? — which is great for us. For 2020, I’ll give Cavan Biggio projections of 71/25/78/.246/20 in 571 ABs with a chance for more.

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The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
2 years ago

You won’t be crazy about this end of the board.. Paddack I love, but felt it was early for him, and didn’t see him coming back to me.

Hader, I know you hate early closers, but looking at the hitters that will be available around pick 90 when It comes back there just isn’t a huge difference it value. As long as His arm doesn’t fall off his Ks can be that of a 5th starter while getting saves and great ERA and WHIP. Him and Yates weren’t making it back so I pulled the trigger.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yeah I see how you’re struggling with the decision.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Meh. I stopped getting frustrated by these a long time ago. Plus this early I need time to process anyway. We’ve got 5 months.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
2 years ago

Like Turner/Alonso combo. Top Pitching went fast.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Bellinger, Mondesi, Torres

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yeah was between Torres and Boegarts, multi position on Torres was the decider. Little worried about ABs

Joe Shmoe
Joe Shmoe
2 years ago

Hi Mr. Grey,
Quick question for a dynasty team: who is the better long term keeper: m. Franco or m. Ford. They both have their warts but I am wondering if ford has more upside at this point. I would hate to drop Franco…
Thank you for your thoughts.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
2 years ago

Ended up talking myself into Bellinger.

The Great Knoche
The great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

And you got Turner. Who was the other guys I was considering at 4

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
2 years ago

Mariners sign Evan White long term.
Think this will speed up his arrival? They’re kinda dog balls at first. He has promise and is a good fielder so it might keep him in the lineup (like Chapman when he first came up)

William Hung
William Hung
2 years ago

Biggio + Adalberto Mondesi = what a 2B/SS combo for fantasy

Bamabterry
Bamabterry
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Thats mine in the NFBC 50 im in currently. Loving the value on both this year. I got mondesi with the 12th pick in rd3 at the front end of the turn, then stole biggio with the 12th pick in rd11.

Hernan
Hernan
2 years ago

Biggio, Biggio, Biggio…., with all due respect, I totally disagree with you, lol, no way he’s a .250ish hitter, more like a 280ish one…( I’ll take the Over in all those projections) ” a chance for a lot , Lot More….., line drive rate is 27/28 %, swinging outside the zone is 15/16 %, swinging strike % under 9%…., I think we’re looking at a Cody Bellinger type breakout, obviously less homers, but more steals…., Good Luck today in Draft!!!!!!! , can’t wait

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Hernan
2 years ago

.280 seems like an aggressive projection. Feels closer to his ceiling than his median outcome. I’ll guess .250 – .260 range.

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Donkey Teeth
2 years ago

We’ll see, I expect adjustments that will correct his flyball and pull happy tendencies, take more advantage of that speed , plate. discipline and contact rates….

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

LOL, Grey, with the excitement created (2nd league needed) about drafting this soon, I think you easily get at least 2 players, maybe the east/west coast thing is a factor, but still…., with no Donkey clogging the lanes , I think I’ll go smooth

Curious George
Curious George
2 years ago

Hey grey (and DT or anyone else with an opinion!) – I chatted with you the other day about how people are way overvaluing ohtani/are one year early (due to likely innings limit this year, etc). Follow up question – is there any point in drafts this year where you would grab him? He is a good hitter (albeit with some questionable/variable splits). Smada data has his early adp at 54, fantrax has it at 72. I’ve got pick 13.8 (128) and he is still available… thoughts? Also: love me some Biggio this year – can’t wait for the rest of the sleepers!

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Curious George
2 years ago

Hey George,

I’m a big Ohtani fan but his value is very format dependent. If you’re taking him around 50-70 it has to be a daily league where you can move him around. But 128 sounds like great value even in a weekly league. I think he’ll get around 100-120 innings with a nice offensive contribution.

Curious George
Curious George
Reply to  Donkey Teeth
2 years ago

Best ball points league. You like the value at 128?

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Curious George
2 years ago

Best ball he’s only a hitter, right? I think it’s a decent spot for him still…

Curious George
Curious George
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I agree that 75 is too early. But in a 10 team best ball points league at 128 overall are you in or out on ohtani? (Other options available include Gary Sanchez, lux, Sano, Moustakas)

Smitty
Reply to  Curious George
2 years ago

Helium due to the Maddon effect – could put up good offensive #’s but way too high for my blood, especially as a UTL guy. Wouldn’t expect much at all from the pitching side
Cavan right after Mercado…

Dave D
Dave D
2 years ago

That is Darin Turdstad Jr. to you mister! Ha, nice write up. Im think about my team names this year with our draft starting this afternoon. Hopefully we can bang out a couple rounds the first day.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

They launder money in Turdstad.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Exactly. Btw, I will be in a meeting when the draft starts so I put my first pick on auto. I should be around again about an hour after the start.

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
2 years ago

Grey!!!

Great Sleeper report!!

a. Kudos for your 10-year anniversary of mentioning Odor as a sleeper. Well done!

b. Uh, sorry to mention it. You indicate in your great report ‘He averaged 225 feet on fly balls…’ Was that 325 feet or 425 feet or really 225 feet? 225 feet sounds like his average on fly balls in little league when he was 6 but what do I know!

c. In my porn fantasy keeper forever league, would appreciate your opinion (and everyone else who wants to throw in a kind word) on this trade I made yesterday.

I get

Brooklyn Chase

I give

Amber Chase
Brooklyn Gray

I used DT’s two rules of thumb in analyzing the trade.

1. Make sure you get the best player (Done)
2. Always try to flip 2 for 1 (Done)

So, done and done a good deal, right?

Cheers,
Ante

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Ante Galic
2 years ago

I think in a porn star league you might rather have 2

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
Reply to  Donkey Teeth
2 years ago

DT!!

Thanks for your comments, man. Though I’m saddened by your indictment of my trade. It hurts.

Cheers,
Ante

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Grey!!

b. Ok, gotcha! Thanks alot for the explanation. Flyball distance, got it. Shows he’s got the power. I was thinking of average distance, my bad.

c. No not just a Brooklyn league. I thought you might pick up on the Brooklyn Chase=Brookyln Gray+Amber Chase nuance but I digress. This will be the last porn reference herein in 2019.

Cheers,
Ante

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Grey!!

Only 2019 last reference. 2020 is a-comin’! Damn, almost another reference.

Cheers,
Ante

knucks
knucks
Reply to  Ante Galic
2 years ago

2020 is the year of porn star quotes Ante, don’t let us down.

Just don’t let the wife catch you doing any “research”.

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
Reply to  knucks
2 years ago

Knucks!!!

a. Yeah, no. That won’t wouldn’t work even though God knows I know a lot of porn quotes – like Britney Amber: ‘You said just a few pumps.’ – but I digress. Random MLB quote of the day will be great.

b. For instance, chant heard in 1992 at Skydome by a group of young teenage girls.

‘1, 2, 3….We love you Robbie!’ Alomar was all the rage in 1992 in Toronto.

See, not bad, right?

Cheers,
Ante

Unagi
Unagi
Reply to  Ante Galic
2 years ago

I know the exact scene you’re talking about!