Here’s how I ended up coming to write this Hunter Dozier fantasy baseball sleeper post:  Saw that he was a top 50 exit velocity last year and sat up in my chair like a good boy, then saw he hit 26 homers in 523 at-bats and got a little yawnstipated so I went for a walk, which turned into me grabbing a Lime scooter and I went out cruising. Just letting the wind hit my face while trying to not breathe in the pollution and ash from the California fires. Then I stopped at Danny Trejo’s taco stand and thought about how such an ugly em-effer makes such a delicious taco and thought about how I’m glad I thought that and didn’t say it out loud because he would totally beat my ass, then asked the cashier, “Does this Danny’s have grand slams?” And they looked at me like I was slow, but it might’ve been the scooter helmet I was wearing, and I convinced myself that’s exactly what it was. Then a full-on scarfing ensued as a large man in cammo, who looked like he’s done some hunting, sat across from me dozing off and I thought, “Holy crap, Hunter Dozier!” But, meh, he still only had 26 homers in 523 at-bats and–wait a second, he had ten triples? Triples mean nothing in fantasy (unless you play in one of those leagues where they mean something, but even you don’t know why you play in a league where they mean something). Who cares about triples! Or, as a person with a strong counterpoint might say, “Do we care?” I think we might. So, what can we expect from Hunter Dozier for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Everyone on the Royals is fast — better to run away when Mike Matheny is saying anything! — so maybe Merrifield or Mondesi sneezed on Hunter Dozier, but I sorted by Sprint Speed and 3rd baseman and, what do you know, you knower of not this, Dozier is the only one with real power and speed. His 28.3 Sprint Speed is better than Kris Bryant of once-had-13-steals-in-a-season fame. So, let’s just throw out there something crazy, Dozier hits 27 homers and steals 10 bags while hitting .280, who does that compare to? Hmm…? C’mon, man, I just mentioned him! He compares to Kris Bryant! Only the Kris Bryant who doesn’t have a hobbled knee and takes baby steps because he’s a baby. To go even further with this comparison that you didn’t know you needed until I started laying it on you, Kris Bryant had a 87.4 MPH exit velocity, which was good for 303rd in the major leagues, near that of Martin Maldonado and John Hicks. Mean’s while, Hunter Dozier had the 49th best, as mentioned above, and was near Eloy, Bryce and Machado. Going back to this comparison I can’t let go, Bryant’s expected batting average and slugging were .246 and .460; Dozier’s were .261 and .471. So, Dozier was faster than Bryant, better expected average and slugging and is being drafted about 100 spots after him. Let’s put a Y on that Um. Now, to get really inspirational and prolly a little too optimistic, Hunter Dozier had a 43.9% fly ball rate, and only a 15.6% HR/FB, which feels realistic for him, but if he can get that to 17-19%, he could hit 35+ homers, like, say, Nolan Arenado. I let my pants type that last sentence. For 2020, I’ll give Hunter Dozier projections of 77/29/88/.255/7 in 546 ABs with a chance for much more.

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goodfold2
goodfold2
2 years ago

it’s that time of year where football is about to end (outside of playoff leagues that i mostly don’t do anymore since the luck factor involved in nabbing players that you don’t know how many games they’ll even play, but this year i’m getting freerolled into helping my friend draft his) and my 30 team dynasty with 40 man prospect rosters is needing it’s tags. so far the players i have locked up are (budget is 115 mil, any contract over 1 mil that you cut you have to pay half of it, any prospect is min against the cap when called up (.4 mil). minimum bid on any player is .4 mil)
C (1)
CI (2)
MI (2)
OF (3) fisher (2.350,500 2020 ending), demeritte (.4, 22 ending)
util (1) legs mcneil (CI/MI/OF, 7.400,002 20 ending)
SP (3, but you want 5-6 total): yarbrough (.4 21 ending), r.lopez (.4 20 ending)
RP (3, but with the P slots you want 6): v.alcantara (.4, 22 ending)
P (3)

so i gotta franchise tag 1 (pay real life contract), restrict tag 1 (i can match highest bid or take draft picks commensurate with the amount of the contract), and 1 either tag in addition to the others. options: (i have 103, 649,498 left for 19 spots open, 5.46 average per)

sale: 23.57 per year (it’s a 145/5 with a 20 option), i would NOT have to hold him all those years at this price, unless i franchised him every year
e.rosario (OF) : 4.19 1 year (he’s in arb so i pay his last year price)
mostsuckass (CI): 16 per year
dannys antana (CI/MI/OF): he’s on a minor league deal pre-arb so he’s our minimum price: .4
segura: (MI), (he’s kinda turned into a meh player eh): 14.583,333 per
wong (MI): 11.25 per
quintana: 10.5
hicks (OF): about 12 per (i can’t find his 2026 option number, might be slightly higher)

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  goodfold2
2 years ago

hey bateman WTF is up with ozark, c’mon man. still no actual set date, i did read somewhere that they didn’t finish taping it till october (far behind the rate they put out season 2 from 1).

– hadn’t started watching leftovers yet, but did get/read the book. my guess is the show goes far from the timeline finished in the book, book wasn’t very long (it had very large print, i found a library version on amazon). check this out, for a show that’s entirely about people just up and disappearing, where would the least ironic (but would be called most ironic) place for that book to be obtained from? that’s where this book supposedly is from (library stamp). it’s SO non-ironic that i almost think it’s a really good joke to have this stamped on it. this is so funny it probably should be worth money to a well humored book collector. you’ll easily guess where it’s from (an american location).

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

yeah i just showed them as other options. wong/segura are similar (wong more valuable these days as he’s FINALLY gotten out from mehtheny and can now steal, something he should’ve been doing for his entire career) and can probably be won in bidding (or players just like them) for similar prices. till now i had segura for years on super cheap deal. wong was a cheap (and easily worth it) probably near 5 mil in bids last year.

so restrict sale and either take the SUPER high draft picks i could get for him (it’d be more than just an end of 1st rounder if he goes over 20-25 million, which he’s likely to do) or match, nab at least one of e.rosario or antana (but not both over mostsuckass) and either franchise mostsuckass or restrict (16 mil is probably close to what he’d cost either way though, so if i’m sure i’m keeping him might as well franchise in case he was bid more than that). guessing we don’t trust antana to get near that production yet again.

– ok, so the book parts only run through season 1 sounds like. you didn’t guess where in america the library i got that book is from. it’s very obvious (would be called ironic but it’s exactly the opposite).

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

the order of stuff for our preseason goes….
-tags due by x-mas
-restricted players get bid on then matched or not from 26th-1st or 2nd january
– draft starts around jan 2nd (only rookie eligible players 150/50 at bats/innings max), timing sucks as we have a black hole for about 4-5 weeks before MLB starts, but most good prospect up to date info is only partially out now (new razzball guy is 19/30th of way done with his team prospect lists, which is way better than most in industry). draft takes about a month, 6 rounds. the ONLY good part of doing this so MF’ing early is that by the time i’m doing other league preseason stuff (end of feb-march) i’m FAR more than versed enough in prospect stuff, having already done it for a 30 team with 40 prospect slots.
– FA not owned after draft are bid on in 5 separate weeks (they’re broken up pretty much randomly) with a 6th week to clean up anybody not won yet.

– you’ll see how obvious this was when i answer it (why guess independence, MO here? or any other independence)

it’s roanoke (i thought it was virginia, but i just looked up it’s in current north carolina)

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  goodfold2
2 years ago

it’s obvious since as far as i know the most famous unsolved american “where did those people disappear to” story is roanoke.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

i mean it’s obvious to me (actually the ONLY famous “where did they disappear to” town as far as i know is roanoke) since roanoke is the famous colony that like 120 people disappeared from, it’s so famous it’s even taught in grade school for early american history. so i bought a book that’s whole point is “what if a bunch of people disappeared all at once” from a library in the town that had the entire town that exact thing happen to it hundreds of years ago. AND as far as i know that’s the only american town to have to happen. it’s so perfect i sort of doubt that really is where the book is from, that somebody joke printed “roanoke public library” on it.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  goodfold2
2 years ago

sorry, not printed, rubber stamped, like libraries do. i bought it super cheap on amazon and it’s dealer got it from a library or is a library.

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

i’ve never even heard of any other famous american whole town (well it was a 120 person colony at the time) disappearing. it’s too perfect that i got a copy of leftovers from there. so perfect i just now checked where it was sent from (aurora, IL, i.e. wayne’s world (CHI suburb)) and yeah, quite possible previous owner just stamped that with it NOT actually being from roanoke. good joke even then.

Ben
Ben
2 years ago

Hi Grey,

I have Verlander, Corbin, and Castillo in a mixed 12 team keep 10 a keeper. I was offered a 13th round (3rd round after keepers) for Corbin or Castillo. Do you see them both as top 15 pitchers next year? Pitching was hard to come by last year, so hesitant to move either of them, but I could use the pick. If I do trade one, I’d likely have Aquino or Eduardo Escobar as my final keeper.

Thanks!

Ben
Ben
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Thanks Grey. Of Tim Anderson, Semien, Aquino, Eduardo Escobar, Soler, Carlos Santana, which three are you keeping? Anderson, Semien, Soler?

I’m going to hate letting Aquino go, but with Goldy, Springer, Muncy, Starling, and the three pitchers I’m not sure I have a spot for him…

Smitty
2 years ago

Like DoZZZier quite a bit. Everyday RF and consistent progress has arrow pointing north!

dill
dill
2 years ago

Hey Grey,
Great work, can’t wait for the sleeper pitchers.
I was offered Kristian Robinson, Gorman and Madrigal for my Hader in a keeper
Would you pull the trigger ?
Thanks !

DonnieB
DonnieB
2 years ago

I am doing an NFBC draft and have taken Sano, Calhoun, Mercado, Hunter Dozier, and Walker. I will call it the RazzSleeper team! Keep em coming!

Dave D
Dave D
2 years ago

Just drafted David Fletcher with pick 282 as my swing man. My first (and last?) Angel. I kinda realized evaluating the pick that me has a much higher value in regular NFBC than DC. He allows me to go a little deeper on SP or RP, or maybe draft a flier I can sit on more comfortably. Thanks, Fletch, and welcome to my club.

PS- Major “Meh” on the Teheran signing. Seems just like Cahill/Harvey last year. Not much better than Barria, maybe a step down from Sandoval. Mediocrity is not what we need to compete with HOU, TEX (who have actually upgraded an already superior rotation).

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yeah, and given how many ABs he may get if he leads off, he could have a huge positive impact on my team BA. Sometimes people look at BA without ABs, but a leadoff hitter may have twice the impact on team BA of a C, especially in a two C league.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yeah, he could steal many more bags if inclined. Speed is there. Maybe Maddon will encourage it more than Assmunch did.

Coolwhip
2 years ago

Somehow it feels like Dozier has a high floor. He never really had any flaming hot months like Josh Bell etc, and his only bad month was when was injured for a stint, most the year he was relatively stable. Sept he was meh on power but the average was still there. Seems like for the price of admission you could do a lot worse.

Gigorilla
Gigorilla
2 years ago

Good morning Grey.

Question on your sleepers — at the end you give predictions, and then say w/ a chance for more, OR, like Sano and Dozier, others — “a chance for much more.”

Meaning you like the upside of some more than others, or is it unintentional?
Thanks

Gigorilla
Gigorilla
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Agree on Dozier being real, and good info on his speed. With emergence of Solar and others KC should be interesting this year.

Just like it is interesting what the boy wonder is doing w/ his bag of misfits,
mostly on one years. Smoak and Sogard? Really? At 4.5m -5m each??

Gigorilla
Gigorilla
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Exactly. Here in Beertown, most are confused. A few are all in on Stearns, but that’s hard to swallow with all the players he has let go the last 2 years with little return, and the schmos he just brought in.

TC
TC
2 years ago

Would you trade Benintendi and Bryant in a keeper for Conforto and Buehler? Already have a balanced team, so it’s just about which two offer better overall value the next few years. Thanks.

Trubull69
Trubull69
Reply to  TC
2 years ago

100% do it

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  TC
2 years ago

I would easily be on the Buehler side. Different profiles, but value-wise Beni = Conforto. For me, Buehler > Bryant by a lot. 3B is easy to replace but ace SP’s are not.

Forgot My Usual Screenname
Forgot My Usual Screenname
2 years ago

Hey what’s up Grey!

2020, who you like better, Springer or Meadows????

Forgot My Usual Screenname
Forgot My Usual Screenname
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yeah, I’m having a tough time with this one too.

And looking forward to the January rankings as always, cheers!

Will
Will
2 years ago

Needed some comic relief this morning so I read ESPN’s Top 300 fantasy rankings, which I haven’t looked at in years. Mike Trout ranked #8 is all you need to know, LOL.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
2 years ago

And the answer to how a Hunter Dozier sleeper post gets to 1,000 words is tacos.

Dude squares up balls no doubt, but unless he repeats his .340 BABIP which is theoretically possible with his hard hit rate he’s gonna got .230. Last year was also first year he discovered his power so not sold on it yet. If I’m third baseman less where he’s getting drafted sure, but I’m not buying it yet.

Tom
Tom
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I’m in agreement with Knoche, skepticism is certainly in order, Dozier will turn 29 this year and he was never a beast in the minors. I think your numbers are his absolute ceiling if everything goes great.

The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Of Course you hope you’re right. You already drafted him once!!

I like him better than some guys going in front of him like Berti, Edman, Kevin Newman. If I miss on a 3B early I may jump on board. But because if this write up his ADP will jump 20 spots, so I’ll probably be back out again.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Flying through them! , looks like your gonna have a full 2 weeks for Xmas break.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
2 years ago

Hey Grey,

Saw your post on Christian Walker just now and wanted to throw my own two cents in, even though I’m a day late and a dollar short.

Last year I carried Walker most of the season, and he did relatively fine. He wasn’t great but he wasn’t bad either. Then we got to the playoffs and he went 1-for-21 after Muncy (my other first baseman got hurt). I ended up losing OBP because of that motherfucker. Had I won OBP, I would have advanced to the league finals. Anyway, to make a longer story long, I cut Walker’s shitty ass.

You may be right. He may be a decent play this year and he’s definitely under the radar again. But fuck that guy. I don’t care if he hits 60 Home runs. He won’t do it for my team. I’d rather eat a shit sandwich, take a shit, and eat it again than have him back on my roster.

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Harley Earl
2 years ago

That sounds pretty final. Sure you won’t reconsider?

Jeff
Reply to  Harley Earl
2 years ago

Sounds like Harley is hangry!!

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Harley Earl
2 years ago

Lol, that’s why H2H sucks!!!, like, I won my home league( not that you care), beat the Trout /Sale owner in semis, destroyed the Yelich( amongst others) guy in finals, streaming garbage like grichuk and so along the way….ROTO rules!!!!!!

mike
mike
Reply to  Harley Earl
2 years ago

That’s what head to head is horrible. Great pick you had and it went to waste.

Pops
Pops
Reply to  Harley Earl
2 years ago

Lmao,

Grey,

You have to higher this guy!

Gaylords
Gaylords
2 years ago

In my 10 Team Keeper I’m thinking about trading Trout for Devers and Altuve because my 6th/last keeper isn’t very strong….

Current Keepers without trade:
Trout
Yelich
Starling Marte
Clevinger
Meadows
Undecided

With trade:
Yelich
Devers
Altuve
Starling Marte
Clevinger
Meadows

Should I pull the trigger?

Also we get an alternate keeper just in case one of our six gets injured before our draft, choose top 2…
Castellanos
R. Hoskins
E. Escobar
H. Dozier
C. Walker

Shawnuel
Shawnuel
Reply to  Gaylords
2 years ago

Hey…I JUST traded an $81 Trout for a $49 Altuve + a $1 Villar in my 6X6 Keeper league. Already Keeping Yeli at $26, Belli @$32, Muncey @$27 Beiber @$20 and Bogaerts @$13 along with $1 specials like K Marte, Y. Alvarez, M. Kepler and Josh Bell. The trade gives me a little more flexibility in the draft.

Ben
Ben
Reply to  Shawnuel
2 years ago

$40 seems huge in the draft. That’s a solid core of players your keeping and altuve is a very solid player in return as well . I think it’s a win