Was between Mitch Haniger and Miguel Sano as my next sleeper, and maybe I’ll still do one for Haniger, but it’s doubtful because I figure one lottery ticket sleeper was enough. Another lottery ticket sleeper who I haven’t mentioned until right after this awkward sentence intro is Byron Buxton. For those of you old enough to remember Michael Pineda, oh, and, in hindsight, German Marquez. These were lottery tickets because the ceiling was high but the floor is covered in hay and human feces because you’re in a dungeon, being held there by some Norwegian who collects figurines and humans. Have we ever had a season where any of the guys I just mentioned (Marquez, Buxton, Pineda, Sano) did “just okay?” Is it even possible for Miguel Sano to be “just okay?” It feels impossible. All of these guys are crazy, hot girlfriends. “Yo, check her out just ladling out punch for the two of us, looking smoking hot.” Your friend gives you dap, then notices something, “Hey, did your hot girlfriend just put arsenic in your punch?” And that’s these guys. You might get some refreshing punch for your gut, or you might get a gut punch as you find out your girlfriend has been sleeping with everyone, including your uncle who always dresses like he just came from a job site. “Uncle Paul, why are you wearing a fluorescent vest in PF Chang’s?” “I have a dangerous job and I’m sleeping with your girlfriend.” So, what can we expect from Miguel Sano for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Something I didn’t mention above was why I chose Sano over the other crazy, hot girlfriend sleepers. It’s not groundbreaking, it’s because I like him the best. His ceiling feels like 50+ homers, and Haniger’s ceiling feels near-32 homers with a downside of embarrassment as pics are exposed of him having his nut cast being signed, “Hang in there.” In 380 at-bats last year, Miguel Sano hit 34 homers. Damn, did someone secretly break his hamate bone? He had the 4th best home run per at-bat, between Yelich and Albombso. Sano made 9% soft contact, which makes me make hard contact against my Bermuda shorts. He was 6th in the majors with barrels per plate appearance, right behind Trout and Judge. He was 2nd in the majors in exit velocity, behind Judge. His average home run distance was 415 feet and, if you’ve ever seen Sano, you know he’s not a product of the juiced ball. Bring out the bone-dry balls and Sano will make ’em wet. His hard hit percentage was the best in the majors. Sano broke out last year, and no one is drafting him like it happened. Yes, he’s an injury risk, which is why he’s a sleeper and not being drafted high. But a 26-year-old injury risk with 50+ homer power? I’m sorry, but Nelson Cruz was labeled injury-prone when he was 26 years old too. At one point, Just Dong Martinez was an injury-prone liability. Guys are injury prone until they shake that label. Will Sano hit .270+? Seems unlikely with his 35% strikeout rate, but he hit .247 last year and Joey Gallo hit .253. See, when you’re hitting everything hard, good things happen, even if you’re striking out more than 30% of the time. Speaking of Gallo, how does he get drafted around 55 overall and Sano around 150? There’s a major buying opportunity for Sano this year, and I’m drafting him everywhere. Let the juiced balls dry up and Sano still hits 45 dongers. For 2020, I’ll give Miguel Sano projections of 82/43/94/.241/1 in 524 ABs with a chance for much more.

 
  1. Harley Earl says:
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    Hey Grey,

    A couple months ago, I asked you a question about a keeper league in which my last spot came down to either Eddie Rosario or Miguel Sano. Back then you said Rosario but I’m wondering if you changed your mind? I liked Sano but haven’t really decided. I think Sano broke out too and I think he’ll be more productive than Rosario if he can stay healthy. But I’m not exactly confident in my own opinion. Are you still higher on Rosario or would you roll the dice with Sano if you were me?

    Thanks! Interesting to see this piece today. Glad to see you like Sano either way.

    • Dave D says:
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      So, who will finish with more HR, Sano or Soler? Soler seemed to get better in second half. Sano had great power when in lineup. As long as he learned his lesson about being lazy in the offseason, Sano could be a value. Was it youthful folly or a character-issue?

      • Coolwhip

        Coolwhip says:
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        FWTW, Soler is an athlete and Sano is FAT. Will be curious how he shows up to camp. Not that it means everything (anything). LOL.

        That said, i benefited A LOT from Sano down the stretch and he helped we win it when everyone else got hurt. pretty good comp of what we could get from a full season of maximum effort. I like the price.

        • Dave D says:
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          His agents should tell him that his injuries will keep piling up if he follows the Mo Vaughn/Cecil Fielder offseason training regime.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Coolwhip,

          Sano being fat doesn’t hurt him for now, it might in his early 30s

          • Coolwhip

            Coolwhip says:
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            was mostly a fat joke ;)

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Dave D,

        I’m liking Soler more than I thought I would… Straight homers? Close, I’d prolly go Soler still, but that’s a nailbiter

        • Dave D says:
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          Yeah, I gave him a longer look and pulled the trigger on him in another draft. His second half was awesome and he showed improving plate discipline. I initially passed on him but did a second take and liked when I looked deeper. Great value at his ADP if he replicates his second half over 162.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Yup! Surprisingly solid, considering this time last year it was like, ‘Oh, not that guy anymore.” There’s hope for Ian Happ after all!

            • Dave D says:
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              Yeah, that magic age 27 Soler hit. Jose Bautista II. Happ seems likely to break out to me too. I just wish he had 3B eligibility. Maybe if they trade Bryant.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Yeah, same… Hoping for no Castellanos signing, that might hurt Happ

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Harley,

      Rosario still

      Sano is cheaper, and for the price solid sleeper…with a chance for more!

      • Harley Earl says:
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        Thanks boss!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  2. batflix says:
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    that baby Albombso-like projection

    that’s a top 50 player right?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      It’s a top 100ish, average is a little low, bit risk involved with health

  3. TC says:
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    What are your thoughts on Benintendi moving forward? Do you feel he rebounds or is last year who he is? The number of bombs he hit with the golf balls they were playing with was quite alarming, and it’s not like he’s stealing 30 bags either. I can keep him at a 10th round value, but my last keeper spot seems to be down to him, Conforto at 14th round, or Castellanos at a 22nd round guy. I’m balanced in all statistical categories, so it’s really just who is a better keeper value for the next few years.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Benintendi’s #s don’t scream rebound, but his price is ridiculously low right now… If he hits .275 for 150 games, it’s gonna be hard for him not to produce where he’s being drafted

      Castellanos is guy to keep

      • Dave D says:
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        He just went at 140 in another Slow I’m doing. I passed on him at 139 to draft Dahl. I almost pulled the trigger but I leaned on the AVG/HR output versus SB/R.

        Yeah, but a good value, I agree.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          140 is insane, he was a top 30 player for past 2 years and he’s only 25

          • Dave D says:
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            Yeah, totally. Too bad I like Dahl better. He was going 69 overall in 2019 so I passed. I think people are over correcting on both Benintendi and Dahl. I get the health issues, but 100 games of Dahl at 140-150 seems good to me with the “chance for a lot more”. I wouldn’t be shocked if Dahl broke out and went 90/30/90/.300/10. He just seems to have a bit more upside (and risk) than Beni.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Dahl just needs to stay healthy… That’s easier to pull off than Benintendi who needs to correct whatever happened to his swing last year, and all those Ks

              • Dave D says:
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                Exactly. I’ll take the gamble.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yup

              • Harley Earl says:
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                I read something that Alex Cora said the other day during the Winter Meetings that I found interesting.

                Cora said Benintendi played at a much larger weight last year, adding muscle for presumed power. However, it seemed to backfire and slowed his speed on the bases down, slowed his speed defensively down, and slowed his swing down. The Sox have asked Benintendi to trim back down to his normal size so he can be more athletic and play faster.

                Now, this could all be an excuse or it could be the truth. We’ll find out soon enough. But it does make sense to me. Benny Baseball might be worth a hold in keepers or worth a flyer at a discounted price.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Sounds anecdotal but maybe, he definitely was striking out more, so maybe that was his swing slowing down

              • TC says:
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                I have also been trying to land Austin Meadows. What type of keeper value do you see him having moving forward. Just want to know what type of players I need to be throwing at this guy to land him. Would Corbin and Conforto be too much if I already had 3 other strong SP keepers? Meadows would be a round 11 guy moving forward and Corbin (11) and Conforto (14)

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Corbin/Conforto is too much… Corbin and a much smaller piece for him

                  • TC says:
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                    ok, thanks. this is the price I pay for following your site. I have too many good players that I can’t keep and don’t want to just dump them back in the draft pool for free! All worth it for taking the title last year though!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha, nice!

  4. OBP says:
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    Any chance you can throw OBP in your projections as a staple for us OBP leagues?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Rudy does OBP, and projects all 1000+ hitters for OBP in Janurary

  5. Andy says:
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    Grey – this is off topic, but how do you think the 3 batter minimum rule is going to impact saves in fantasy?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      For saves? Not much, you might not see as many random 2-out, 9th innings where the closer doesn’t get the save, so you get a few more, but very few, maybe 1-3 per elite closer

  6. RoarOf84 says:
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    Looking for some help with keeper selections. I’m in a 10 team roto league with some interesting categories.

    Hitting – R, H, HR, RBI, SB, K (lesser wins), BA, OPS
    Pitching – W, L (lesser wins), SV, HLD, ERA, WHIP, K/9, QS

    Each team can keep up to 5 players with their cost escalating two draft rounds every season. These are my potential options.

    Castillo (8th)
    Benintendi (12th)
    Clevinger (17th)
    Flaherty (18th)
    Villar (2oth)
    Vlad (22nd)
    Luzardo (25th)
    Sano (26th)*
    Tucker (26th)*

    *If I were to keep both Sano and Tucker, one of them would become a 25th round selection.

    Thanks for the help!

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      I’d keep these 5

      Sano
      Vlad
      Villar
      Flaherty
      Clevinger

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Clevinger (17th)
      Flaherty (18th)
      Villar (2oth)
      Vlad (22nd)
      Then up in the air…Maybe Sano or Tucker, depends on Tucker’s role in March

  7. Coolwhip

    Coolwhip says:
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    Grey! Was wondering when this post would surface! We talked a lot about him down the stretch with a couple of the commenters. One key stat with him is he was absolutely DESTROYing LHP for a majority of the second half. And yeah that HardHit rate was elite level delicious. Hoping he comes to camp this year looking to build on that, rather than thinking he’s got it made and can coast on good vibes again like he did before. I want a hungry Sano! (not that he needs to eat anymore)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, yup! I was thinking of Cruz a lot with this post, bc he was a guy who never stayed healthy in his early 20s then stayed healthy for like 7 years in a row… Just hoping Sano can get 145 games

  8. Zeus says:
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    Good pick. I am going to be all over Sano this upcoming season.

    I think he will be a safe hedge against the juiced ball issue as his power will play regardless. A full season in a deep lineup should equal good results.

    Or maybe I have been suckered by a half season from a once top Twins prospect. FU Buxton and your sexy speed

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! Yeah, thinking the same

  9. jon says:
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    Curious who won this trade . 10 team Keeper league.

    Albies for Mondesi and Luis Robert

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Mondesi

  10. Brad says:
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    I noticed in your recent draft you took Laureano early.

    Are you really high on him?

    Do you think he has top 20 OF potential?

    Thanks,

    Cersy

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yup, and I do… He’s a 25/20/.280 guy… Think Pham but with more power and younger

  11. baseballbanter says:
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    sup grey, haven’t been around in a while but need your two cents.

    completely off topic and does not involve sano at all.

    in a 20 team dynasty league and am trying to compete in a years time. here is the aggregate of 2 trades that im considering. which side is more valuable in your opinion?

    side A: Brian Anderson, Bobby Witt. Jr, Khalil Lee, Josh James
    side B: Trey Mancini, AJ Puk, Cesar Hernandez, Eleiser Hernandez

    thanks and farewell. 100 days till opening day.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Good to see you!

      Side B

  12. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Hey grey,

    Working out a 3 team trade.

    Team A trades Luis Urias and Raimel Tapia to team B for Zack Wheeler
    Team a then trades me Wheeler ($41), Raisel Iglesias ($39) and $14 in cap room for Justin Turner ($33) and Yu Darvish ($33). What are your thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Sounds decent for you

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        you would make that deal

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah

          • Scott Kimmel says:
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            ok great. I am just waiting for the first part of the deal to be official

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Cool

  13. Skip Mcgillicuddy says:
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    First time in a long time Grey, hope all is well. I believe we spoke about a Sano power surge on one of your around the league posts mid season. Seems like people forgot he was a stud just a few years ago, plus hes entering that magic window age wise. As long as he doesnt molest any media personnel or get injured, I think 40 bombs would be bare minimum

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Good to see you! Yeah, hopefully he keeps his hands in on his swing and when near media personnel

  14. Will says:
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    I’ve had Sano and Buxton on my roster for years now, always hoping “this will be the breakout year”. For Buxton last year’s half a season was the breakout but he just can’t stay healthy. The labrum surgery scares me heading into this season (Gregory Polanco anyone?). Agree w/ you on Sano if he ever gets 500+ at bats he’ll hit 50+ homers. I’ll probably draft both of these guys again in 2020 if they come cheap enough. I need an intervention, lol.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, I’m with you on Sano, I can’t wrap my head around the price on Buxton every year

  15. Dave D says:
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    I am not sure if it’s just me but somebody just took Will Smith-RP with pick #142 and I just winced. It wasn’t even my pick and it still made me uncomfortable. Maybe it’s PTSD from the times in the past when I drafted closers too high and they lost their jobs, but I just can’t take a guy like that there. I’ve got nothing against the pitcher, but the uncertainty of his role, Melancon with that giant salary closing and Greene maybe even in mix. I can’t imagine touching that situation.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I think I mentioned this when I wrote up Smith, I don’t get people drafting a guy because he’s “good” after a team has said someone else is the closer… Believe teams, if they say Melancon is the closer, then he’s the closer until further notice

      • Dave D says:
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        It seems kinda like running a stop sign. Not worth the risk of downside when your brakes still work.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Exactly!

  16. The Great Knoche says:
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    Healy to Milwaukee is interesting. If he’s healthy and gets o the launch angle bandwagon… could be sneaky 25HRs as late flyer.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      The problem is if his hips are an issue, then it doesn’t matter how launchy his angle is

  17. Snacks Zillion says:
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    I just swapped Rendon and Lowe (1B, TB) for TillDaddy. Salaries washed each other out. 12 team Rotisserie league. Feel great about getting Acuna. I am new to Rotisserie. What do you think?

    • Snacks Zillion says:
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      Actually gained $4.44 in cap space also

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nice trade for you!

  18. Snacks Zillion says:
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    Thanks, last question. 12 team rotisserie who would you rather have off waivers for my budget left of $22.46. Moustakas, Kepler or the combo of A. Aquino and Nimmo? As always thanks!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Aquino

      • Snacks Zillion says:
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        Thank you, much appreciated.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  19. Dave D says:
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    Well, I just made 13th round pick in my NFBC Slow 30 round Main Event Qualifier. So far:

    1B: Abreu
    2B: Villar
    SS: Tatis
    3B: McMahon
    MI: B. Lowe
    OF: V. Robles
    OF: Soler
    OF: L.Robert
    OF: Dahl
    OF: Schwarber
    SP: Flaherty
    SP: ERod
    SP: Wheeler

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You’re doing another already?! Wait…I’ve seen this one, did this start a while ago? How slow is it? Is this the one where you want Flaherty in 2nd round?

      You are loving McMahon this year, I kinda agree…Looks low on AVG

      • Dave D says:
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        Yes, Im obsessed. This is a new one. My third draft. Its a 4-hour 30 rd $125 winner take all ($1700 entry to Main Event).

        Actually, I decided to do a slow in another format because I will be super busy in March and drafting will be difficult. I got a promotion that begins 1/3/20 with a ton of responsibilities. That and a wife who is 5+ months preggo. So I wanted to get one more in that was not another DC.

        Yeah, I have some players I’m targeting. McMahon is one. I’m close to 300HR and 150SB according to my projections with 4 more positions to fill. I think I do need a couple higher avg guys, you’re right. I love the speed/power so far. Dare I grab “boring” Eaton for BA??? Ha!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Congrats! On the job and wife’s bun in oven!

          Haha, Eaton could actually work there, you need to find cheap AVG somewhere…One of those young Pirates, if they’re around work

          • Dave D says:
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            Thanks! I had a tough decision at pick #169. I kinda wanted Newman there but I wavered between him and McMahon. Since Mc was a little higher on my list I went with him but Newman was gone before my next one at 192. I wanted Newman over Lowe but whatever. There’s a couple speed/avg sleepers in the 300-400 range Ill target.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Brian Anderson or Garrett Cooper?

              • Dave D says:
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                Yeah, Cooper looks a little better but Anderson could rebound and 3B/OF is desirable.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, I like Cooper for straight AVG play

          • Dave D says:
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            Is there anybody aside from hearthrob Fletcher you’d target late for avg? I got some ideas but curious who you’d target ADP 300+

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Arraez (prolly gone), Astudillo, Cooper, Anderson, Hanser, Madrigal, Verdugo, Markakis, Peraza!!!, Jose Martinez… Not that order, but 1st names come to mind

              • Dave D says:
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                Yeah, there’s a few good ones in there. C is an iffy place for avg. Astudillo is a peculiar player. 4 hr leaves a little to be desired but he does make great contact if he plays. How about Mejia for average with a little more pop?

                • The Great Knoche says:
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                  Sparkakis.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, I could see Mejia adding AVG, but he’s nowhere near a lock for a positive on AVG

  20. FrankGrimes says:
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    still giggling over the “hang in there” line…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha

  21. Hometown Heroes says:
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    Hey Grey, what are your thoughts on Giancarlo Stanton this season? I’ve got a chance to essentially acquire him for nothing in an AL only 12 team league. His salary is $26, which seems close to market. I’ve got to pull the rigger right?

    Thanks again

  22. Crazy J says:
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    Just came here to make sure you penciled Sano in for 40+… as usual. Can’t believe Gallo is going 55, that’s ridiculous. Can’t wait for February when I can fire up some mock drafts.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, exactly!

Comments are closed.