Was between Mitch Haniger and Miguel Sano as my next sleeper, and maybe I’ll still do one for Haniger, but it’s doubtful because I figure one lottery ticket sleeper was enough. Another lottery ticket sleeper who I haven’t mentioned until right after this awkward sentence intro is Byron Buxton. For those of you old enough to remember Michael Pineda, oh, and, in hindsight, German Marquez. These were lottery tickets because the ceiling was high but the floor is covered in hay and human feces because you’re in a dungeon, being held there by some Norwegian who collects figurines and humans. Have we ever had a season where any of the guys I just mentioned (Marquez, Buxton, Pineda, Sano) did “just okay?” Is it even possible for Miguel Sano to be “just okay?” It feels impossible. All of these guys are crazy, hot girlfriends. “Yo, check her out just ladling out punch for the two of us, looking smoking hot.” Your friend gives you dap, then notices something, “Hey, did your hot girlfriend just put arsenic in your punch?” And that’s these guys. You might get some refreshing punch for your gut, or you might get a gut punch as you find out your girlfriend has been sleeping with everyone, including your uncle who always dresses like he just came from a job site. “Uncle Paul, why are you wearing a fluorescent vest in PF Chang’s?” “I have a dangerous job and I’m sleeping with your girlfriend.” So, what can we expect from Miguel Sano for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Something I didn’t mention above was why I chose Sano over the other crazy, hot girlfriend sleepers. It’s not groundbreaking, it’s because I like him the best. His ceiling feels like 50+ homers, and Haniger’s ceiling feels near-32 homers with a downside of embarrassment as pics are exposed of him having his nut cast being signed, “Hang in there.” In 380 at-bats last year, Miguel Sano hit 34 homers. Damn, did someone secretly break his hamate bone? He had the 4th best home run per at-bat, between Yelich and Albombso. Sano made 9% soft contact, which makes me make hard contact against my Bermuda shorts. He was 6th in the majors with barrels per plate appearance, right behind Trout and Judge. He was 2nd in the majors in exit velocity, behind Judge. His average home run distance was 415 feet and, if you’ve ever seen Sano, you know he’s not a product of the juiced ball. Bring out the bone-dry balls and Sano will make ’em wet. His hard hit percentage was the best in the majors. Sano broke out last year, and no one is drafting him like it happened. Yes, he’s an injury risk, which is why he’s a sleeper and not being drafted high. But a 26-year-old injury risk with 50+ homer power? I’m sorry, but Nelson Cruz was labeled injury-prone when he was 26 years old too. At one point, Just Dong Martinez was an injury-prone liability. Guys are injury prone until they shake that label. Will Sano hit .270+? Seems unlikely with his 35% strikeout rate, but he hit .247 last year and Joey Gallo hit .253. See, when you’re hitting everything hard, good things happen, even if you’re striking out more than 30% of the time. Speaking of Gallo, how does he get drafted around 55 overall and Sano around 150? There’s a major buying opportunity for Sano this year, and I’m drafting him everywhere. Let the juiced balls dry up and Sano still hits 45 dongers. For 2020, I’ll give Miguel Sano projections of 82/43/94/.241/1 in 524 ABs with a chance for much more.

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Crazy J
Crazy J
2 years ago

Just came here to make sure you penciled Sano in for 40+… as usual. Can’t believe Gallo is going 55, that’s ridiculous. Can’t wait for February when I can fire up some mock drafts.

Hometown Heroes
Hometown Heroes
2 years ago

Hey Grey, what are your thoughts on Giancarlo Stanton this season? I’ve got a chance to essentially acquire him for nothing in an AL only 12 team league. His salary is $26, which seems close to market. I’ve got to pull the rigger right?

Thanks again

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
2 years ago

still giggling over the “hang in there” line…

Dave D
Dave D
2 years ago

Well, I just made 13th round pick in my NFBC Slow 30 round Main Event Qualifier. So far:

1B: Abreu
2B: Villar
SS: Tatis
3B: McMahon
MI: B. Lowe
OF: V. Robles
OF: Soler
OF: L.Robert
OF: Dahl
OF: Schwarber
SP: Flaherty
SP: ERod
SP: Wheeler

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yes, Im obsessed. This is a new one. My third draft. Its a 4-hour 30 rd $125 winner take all ($1700 entry to Main Event).

Actually, I decided to do a slow in another format because I will be super busy in March and drafting will be difficult. I got a promotion that begins 1/3/20 with a ton of responsibilities. That and a wife who is 5+ months preggo. So I wanted to get one more in that was not another DC.

Yeah, I have some players I’m targeting. McMahon is one. I’m close to 300HR and 150SB according to my projections with 4 more positions to fill. I think I do need a couple higher avg guys, you’re right. I love the speed/power so far. Dare I grab “boring” Eaton for BA??? Ha!

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Thanks! I had a tough decision at pick #169. I kinda wanted Newman there but I wavered between him and McMahon. Since Mc was a little higher on my list I went with him but Newman was gone before my next one at 192. I wanted Newman over Lowe but whatever. There’s a couple speed/avg sleepers in the 300-400 range Ill target.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yeah, Cooper looks a little better but Anderson could rebound and 3B/OF is desirable.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Is there anybody aside from hearthrob Fletcher you’d target late for avg? I got some ideas but curious who you’d target ADP 300+

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yeah, there’s a few good ones in there. C is an iffy place for avg. Astudillo is a peculiar player. 4 hr leaves a little to be desired but he does make great contact if he plays. How about Mejia for average with a little more pop?

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Dave D
2 years ago

Sparkakis.

Snacks Zillion
Snacks Zillion
2 years ago

Thanks, last question. 12 team rotisserie who would you rather have off waivers for my budget left of $22.46. Moustakas, Kepler or the combo of A. Aquino and Nimmo? As always thanks!!

Snacks Zillion
Snacks Zillion
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Thank you, much appreciated.

Snacks Zillion
Snacks Zillion
2 years ago

I just swapped Rendon and Lowe (1B, TB) for TillDaddy. Salaries washed each other out. 12 team Rotisserie league. Feel great about getting Acuna. I am new to Rotisserie. What do you think?

Snacks Zillion
Snacks Zillion
Reply to  Snacks Zillion
2 years ago

Actually gained $4.44 in cap space also

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
2 years ago

Healy to Milwaukee is interesting. If he’s healthy and gets o the launch angle bandwagon… could be sneaky 25HRs as late flyer.

Dave D
Dave D
2 years ago

I am not sure if it’s just me but somebody just took Will Smith-RP with pick #142 and I just winced. It wasn’t even my pick and it still made me uncomfortable. Maybe it’s PTSD from the times in the past when I drafted closers too high and they lost their jobs, but I just can’t take a guy like that there. I’ve got nothing against the pitcher, but the uncertainty of his role, Melancon with that giant salary closing and Greene maybe even in mix. I can’t imagine touching that situation.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

It seems kinda like running a stop sign. Not worth the risk of downside when your brakes still work.

Will
Will
2 years ago

I’ve had Sano and Buxton on my roster for years now, always hoping “this will be the breakout year”. For Buxton last year’s half a season was the breakout but he just can’t stay healthy. The labrum surgery scares me heading into this season (Gregory Polanco anyone?). Agree w/ you on Sano if he ever gets 500+ at bats he’ll hit 50+ homers. I’ll probably draft both of these guys again in 2020 if they come cheap enough. I need an intervention, lol.

Skip Mcgillicuddy
Skip Mcgillicuddy
2 years ago

First time in a long time Grey, hope all is well. I believe we spoke about a Sano power surge on one of your around the league posts mid season. Seems like people forgot he was a stud just a few years ago, plus hes entering that magic window age wise. As long as he doesnt molest any media personnel or get injured, I think 40 bombs would be bare minimum

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
2 years ago

Hey grey,

Working out a 3 team trade.

Team A trades Luis Urias and Raimel Tapia to team B for Zack Wheeler
Team a then trades me Wheeler ($41), Raisel Iglesias ($39) and $14 in cap room for Justin Turner ($33) and Yu Darvish ($33). What are your thoughts?

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

you would make that deal

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

ok great. I am just waiting for the first part of the deal to be official

baseballbanter
baseballbanter
2 years ago

sup grey, haven’t been around in a while but need your two cents.

completely off topic and does not involve sano at all.

in a 20 team dynasty league and am trying to compete in a years time. here is the aggregate of 2 trades that im considering. which side is more valuable in your opinion?

side A: Brian Anderson, Bobby Witt. Jr, Khalil Lee, Josh James
side B: Trey Mancini, AJ Puk, Cesar Hernandez, Eleiser Hernandez

thanks and farewell. 100 days till opening day.

Brad
Brad
2 years ago

I noticed in your recent draft you took Laureano early.

Are you really high on him?

Do you think he has top 20 OF potential?

Thanks,

Cersy

jon
jon
2 years ago

Curious who won this trade . 10 team Keeper league.

Albies for Mondesi and Luis Robert

Zeus
Zeus
2 years ago

Good pick. I am going to be all over Sano this upcoming season.

I think he will be a safe hedge against the juiced ball issue as his power will play regardless. A full season in a deep lineup should equal good results.

Or maybe I have been suckered by a half season from a once top Twins prospect. FU Buxton and your sexy speed

Coolwhip
2 years ago

Grey! Was wondering when this post would surface! We talked a lot about him down the stretch with a couple of the commenters. One key stat with him is he was absolutely DESTROYing LHP for a majority of the second half. And yeah that HardHit rate was elite level delicious. Hoping he comes to camp this year looking to build on that, rather than thinking he’s got it made and can coast on good vibes again like he did before. I want a hungry Sano! (not that he needs to eat anymore)

RoarOf84
RoarOf84
2 years ago

Looking for some help with keeper selections. I’m in a 10 team roto league with some interesting categories.

Hitting – R, H, HR, RBI, SB, K (lesser wins), BA, OPS
Pitching – W, L (lesser wins), SV, HLD, ERA, WHIP, K/9, QS

Each team can keep up to 5 players with their cost escalating two draft rounds every season. These are my potential options.

Castillo (8th)
Benintendi (12th)
Clevinger (17th)
Flaherty (18th)
Villar (2oth)
Vlad (22nd)
Luzardo (25th)
Sano (26th)*
Tucker (26th)*

*If I were to keep both Sano and Tucker, one of them would become a 25th round selection.

Thanks for the help!

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  RoarOf84
2 years ago

I’d keep these 5

Sano
Vlad
Villar
Flaherty
Clevinger

Andy
Andy
2 years ago

Grey – this is off topic, but how do you think the 3 batter minimum rule is going to impact saves in fantasy?

OBP
OBP
2 years ago

Any chance you can throw OBP in your projections as a staple for us OBP leagues?

TC
TC
2 years ago

What are your thoughts on Benintendi moving forward? Do you feel he rebounds or is last year who he is? The number of bombs he hit with the golf balls they were playing with was quite alarming, and it’s not like he’s stealing 30 bags either. I can keep him at a 10th round value, but my last keeper spot seems to be down to him, Conforto at 14th round, or Castellanos at a 22nd round guy. I’m balanced in all statistical categories, so it’s really just who is a better keeper value for the next few years.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

He just went at 140 in another Slow I’m doing. I passed on him at 139 to draft Dahl. I almost pulled the trigger but I leaned on the AVG/HR output versus SB/R.

Yeah, but a good value, I agree.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yeah, totally. Too bad I like Dahl better. He was going 69 overall in 2019 so I passed. I think people are over correcting on both Benintendi and Dahl. I get the health issues, but 100 games of Dahl at 140-150 seems good to me with the “chance for a lot more”. I wouldn’t be shocked if Dahl broke out and went 90/30/90/.300/10. He just seems to have a bit more upside (and risk) than Beni.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Exactly. I’ll take the gamble.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I read something that Alex Cora said the other day during the Winter Meetings that I found interesting.

Cora said Benintendi played at a much larger weight last year, adding muscle for presumed power. However, it seemed to backfire and slowed his speed on the bases down, slowed his speed defensively down, and slowed his swing down. The Sox have asked Benintendi to trim back down to his normal size so he can be more athletic and play faster.

Now, this could all be an excuse or it could be the truth. We’ll find out soon enough. But it does make sense to me. Benny Baseball might be worth a hold in keepers or worth a flyer at a discounted price.

TC
TC
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

I have also been trying to land Austin Meadows. What type of keeper value do you see him having moving forward. Just want to know what type of players I need to be throwing at this guy to land him. Would Corbin and Conforto be too much if I already had 3 other strong SP keepers? Meadows would be a round 11 guy moving forward and Corbin (11) and Conforto (14)

TC
TC
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

ok, thanks. this is the price I pay for following your site. I have too many good players that I can’t keep and don’t want to just dump them back in the draft pool for free! All worth it for taking the title last year though!

batflix
batflix
2 years ago

that baby Albombso-like projection

that’s a top 50 player right?

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
2 years ago

Hey Grey,

A couple months ago, I asked you a question about a keeper league in which my last spot came down to either Eddie Rosario or Miguel Sano. Back then you said Rosario but I’m wondering if you changed your mind? I liked Sano but haven’t really decided. I think Sano broke out too and I think he’ll be more productive than Rosario if he can stay healthy. But I’m not exactly confident in my own opinion. Are you still higher on Rosario or would you roll the dice with Sano if you were me?

Thanks! Interesting to see this piece today. Glad to see you like Sano either way.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Harley Earl
2 years ago

So, who will finish with more HR, Sano or Soler? Soler seemed to get better in second half. Sano had great power when in lineup. As long as he learned his lesson about being lazy in the offseason, Sano could be a value. Was it youthful folly or a character-issue?

Coolwhip
Reply to  Dave D
2 years ago

FWTW, Soler is an athlete and Sano is FAT. Will be curious how he shows up to camp. Not that it means everything (anything). LOL.

That said, i benefited A LOT from Sano down the stretch and he helped we win it when everyone else got hurt. pretty good comp of what we could get from a full season of maximum effort. I like the price.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Coolwhip
2 years ago

His agents should tell him that his injuries will keep piling up if he follows the Mo Vaughn/Cecil Fielder offseason training regime.

Coolwhip
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

was mostly a fat joke ;)

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yeah, I gave him a longer look and pulled the trigger on him in another draft. His second half was awesome and he showed improving plate discipline. I initially passed on him but did a second take and liked when I looked deeper. Great value at his ADP if he replicates his second half over 162.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Yeah, that magic age 27 Soler hit. Jose Bautista II. Happ seems likely to break out to me too. I just wish he had 3B eligibility. Maybe if they trade Bryant.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  Grey
2 years ago

Thanks boss!