On a recent spring afternoon, I hopped a DeLorean to go back to the future and discuss the top 100 prospects for 2021.

On Wednesday, we explored next year’s dynasty catcher crop.

Today, we’ll stay on that future theme but continue our position-by-position focus, zooming in on first base.

 

Rank Player Age Team
1 Cody Bellinger 24 LAD
2 Pete Alonso 25 NYM
3 Freddie Freeman 30 ATL
4 Matt Olson 25 OAK
5 Josh Bell 27 PIT
6 Anthony Rizzo 30 CHC
7 Andrew Vaughn 21 CHW
8 Joey Gallo 26 TEX
9 Miguel Sano 26 MIN
10 Paul Goldschmidt 32 STL
11 Jose Abreu 33 CHW
12 Max Muncy 29 LAD
13 Spencer Torkelson 20 ??
14 Rhys Hoskins 27 PHI
15 Carlos Santana 33 CLE
16 Evan White 23 SEA
17 Alex Kirilloff 22 MIN
18 Trey Mancini 28 BAL
19 Luke Voit 29 NYY
20 Joc Pederson 27 LAD
21 Lewin Diaz 23 MIA
22 Edwin Encarnacion 37 CHW
23 Christian Walker 29 ARI
24 Eric Hosmer 30 SD
25 C.J. Cron 30 DET
26 Triston Casas 20 BOS
27 Kevin Cron 27 ARI
28 Yuli Gurriel 35 HOU
29 Renato Nunez 25 BAL
30 Ryan Mountcastle 23 BAL
31 Michael Chavis 24 BOS
32 Nate Lowe 24 TB
33 Bryce Ball 21 ATL
34 Rowdy Tellez 25 TOR
35 Jesus Aguilar 29 MIA
36 Seth Beer 23 ARI
37 Michael Toglia 21 COL
38 Mason Martin 20 PIT
39 Aaron Sabato 20 ??
40 Edwin Rios 26 LAD
41 Justin Smoak 33 MIL
42 Eric Thames 33 WSH
43 Brandon Belt 32 SF
44 Jhokensy Noel 18 CLE
45 Dom Smith 24 NYM
46 Dan Vogelbach 27 SEA
47 Miguel Cabrera 37 DET
48 Pavin Smith 24 ARI
49 Ryan O’Hearn 26 KC
50 Josh Naylor 22 SD
51 Travis Shaw 30 TOR
52 Garrett Cooper 29 MIA
53 Alfonso Rivas 23 CHC
54 Ryan McBroom 28 KC
55 Leandro Emiliani 20 WSH
56 Victor Bericoto 18 SF
57 Blaze Jordan 17 ??
58 Will Craig 25 PIT
59 Joey Votto 36 CIN
60 Alex Toral 21 ??
61 Baron Radcliff 21 ??
62 Daniel Murphy 34 COL
63 Mitch Moreland 34 BOS
64 Todd Frazier 34 TEX
65 Tyler Nevin 22 COL
66 Nick Pratto 21 KC
67 Taylor Jones 26 HOU
68 Caden Grice 18 ??
69 Albert Pujols ~40 LAA
70 Logan Morrison 32 MLW?

 

The DH is coming the DH is coming the DH is coming!!

By which I mean first base is often cited as a position in decline, but that will be short-lived if the National League stops sending pitchers to their batters box doom. It’s with that in mind I didn’t overly penalize blocked players like Dominic Smith

The question of how to rank guys like Justin Smoak, Daniel Murphy, Travis Shaw and Jesus Aguilar has troubled me because they could simply fail out of the league at any time, but they have to be ranked as if they might wind up with a starting gig because hey, they seem to have one today.

I wanted to push Bryce Ball, Aaron Sabato and Kevin Cron up the list but struggled to find daylight in a position that will look pretty thick next year depending how the dominoes fall. Ball and Sabato seem like natural hitters, but with their profiles, they will have to hit their way into opportunities more than players with diverse skills, so the shortened season could disproportionately hurt their timelines. 

Edwin Encarnacion presents an interesting case. I loved him at cost in 2020, but where will he land next Spring? He has to be given some benefit of the doubt, but winter’s game of musical chairs is rarely kind to his type in the tanking era.

Ryan McMahon isn’t here because I don’t think he’ll get 20 games at the position in a shortened season featuring Daniel Murphy’s money, but I think he’d land just above the Christian Walker range if eligibility manifested.

Pick to click: Leandro Emiliani has one of my favorite swings in the minors. He’s on the short side for this position at 6’1”, but he absolutely demolished the Gulf Coast league with a 175 wRC+ despite being younger than his average competitor. He’s buried on this and all rankings if he’s mentioned at all, but I will be unsurprised if he smashes his way into the echo chamber. 

Thanks for checking out the most comprehensive 2021 dynasty rankings money can buy! 

Second base is on deck and knocking donuts off the bat as I type this!

I’m @theprospectitch if you’re looking for a new voice in your Twitter feed.

 
  1. David Niven says:
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    Thanks for the continued work bro, much appreciate some hardball talk in all this.

    Be safe my man, cheers again.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks, David!!

      Cheers and safety to you and yours!

  2. Hunter S says:
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    Paul Goldschmidt should be listed for St. Louis instead of Arizona.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks!

  3. C says:
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    Man.

    I get Bellinger vibes from Bryce Ball. I’m all in on that guy, especially if the DH come to the NL

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      They look so similar in the box . . . it’s kind of eerie

  4. Jolt In Flow says:
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    Itch, just saddens me to see Pujols so low on the list. The mighty always go by the wayside eventually.

    In an American league only and had Lewin Diaz when he was part of Minny’s prospect base. Then he got traded to Miami. It pains me inside when I see him so high a list (this is the first I see him rated this high). I was hoping he’d be helping my team out in the future.

    Ah well. Love these lists. Looking forward to the rest. Thanks Itch.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks, Jolt in Flow!

      I was pretty surprised to discover the extent to which I was inside Lewin Diaz myself.

      I struggled like crazy to trade for a share or two this off-season. Not easy to buy a ticket to board the bus at this point.

  5. Dong Show says:
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    Dynasty league: What is a peak Evan White at your best guess Itch? I really didn’t need him, but he was available at a great draft day price that I couldn’t pass him up.

    I have Bell and Mucny (along with White), and while I have no plans to trade any of them, I like having depth and options of something comes along that I can deal from a position of strength.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Peak is 30+ HR and 10+ SB I think

  6. Coolwhip

    Coolwhip says:
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    LOL… don’t think I didn’t notice the ~40 for Pujols. Well played.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Thanks, Coolwhip!

      Good looking out !!!

  7. Bobby says:
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    Gallo hasn’t played 1B in like two years

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      He was the everyday first baseman and played 1B well into 2018. Could just as easily say he took one year off the position but that the org has demonstrated they like him there.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      I went back and forth on him as much as anyone on the list. Maybe should’ve left him off.

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