Let’s begin by having a moment of silence for the fact that we will be without Mike Trout for two months. I dropped him to 23 in the rankings below, which are considered ROS trade value. I know it is hard to justify Trout over some talented players who aren’t going to miss two months, I just couldn’t bring myself to drop him much lower. The Razzball Player Rater has him all the way down to 71 for ROS projections. Personally, if I were to trade Trout, I would hold out for the highest bid and make someone overpay. Otherwise, I’m not moving him. And in keeper leagues, I would still have him at number 1 and wouldn’t entertain offers.
Now, for the players who are playing right now. The two players I moved up and want to focus on this week are Justin Bour and Justin Smoak. I received some questions and comments on here and on Twitter last week about Smoak, so let’s take a look at him first. He has looked great this season, but I have my doubts.
While Smoak’s slash line and counting stats look great right now, unless he finally figured everything out at 30 years old, I have my doubts. Yes, he is currently on pace for almost 40 home runs. Yes, he is striking out 17.9% of the time, which is almost half as much as he did last season and is well below his career average of 23.5%. Through 55 games and over 200 plate appearances in 2017, the metrics back up what he is doing.
But here’s the thing.
Smoak has been in the league for eight seasons and has over 3,000 plate appearances. He’s a career .227 / .311 / .402 hitter. His previous high for home runs in a season is 20, which he did back in 2013. Take a look at his wOBA by season:
Translation: Smoak isn’t this good. This probably isn’t going to last, and a regression is coming.
Now, as far as Justin Bour goes, I am still skeptical but am less skeptical. Bour is 29 but has just over 1,000 plate appearances at the MLB level. He has displayed this kind of power before, both at the major league level and in the minors, so it is easier to believe that his current power stroke is real. Will he continue to hit up around .300? No, but it is reasonable to expect him to hit in the .250-.270 range and offer up 30 home runs, as long as he can stay healthy (which he can’t always do).
The main point here is that, while Bour is only a year younger, he doesn’t have as much of a negative track record that we can hold against him. He has also displayed plus-power in the past, while Smoak has always struggled to fulfill his potential in that department. Bour is likely to regress a bit as well, but I don’t think his regression will be as extreme as Smoak’s. If I had to pick between these two first basemen as a guy I value higher ROS I am taking Bour every time. Maybe I’m just biased now that I live in South Florida, or maybe their track records are telling us everything we need to know about them…
Note: These rankings are considered ROS Trade Value
Mike Maher’s Top 100 Hitters
(Rankings based on 12-team Roto. GREEN = player rising. RED = player dropping. BLUE = new to the 100.)
The Honorable Mentions (Next Five In…)
| Rank | Name | Pos | Team |
| 101 | Justin Smoak | TOR | 1B |
| 102 | Ryon Healy | OAK | 1B/3B |
| 103 | Travis Shaw | MIL | 1B/3B |
| 104 | Aaron Hicks | NYY | OF |
| 105 | Kevin Kiermaier | TB | OF |
Dropped from the rankings: Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, Avisail Garcia, David Peralta, Devon Travis.
As is always the case with the Top 100 rankings, don’t agree with something?
DROP THOSE COMMENTS!
If you want to talk fantasy baseball or football or have players you want Mike to feature, hit him up on Twitter at @mikeMaher or post a comment below!
Been offered a trade and would like your advice
My Arrietta, Blackmon,Trea Turner, D Robertson for his Kershaw, Judge, Bogaerts, Peraza.
As of now, Blackmon and Judge are a wash, I know Judge can’t sustain this pace but is he legit? Peraza should match Turners SBs.
Current roster is
Gold
Turner
Machado
Donaldson
IF Hanley
Of Blackmon Trumbo Desmond Poland
U Kipnis and Mousak
I could really use Kershaw counting stats and QS over Arrietta. Losing Robertson will hurt me on saves.
Seems like a lot of moving parts. Im thinking of countering Arrietta and Blackmon for Kershaw Judge.
Thanks for all your work
@What Happens in Vegas Stays in Vegas:
Yeah, I don’t like that original offer for you. Your offer is much easier to stomach. Giving up Blackmon AND Turner is too much, imo. Plus, Robertson is probably going to be closing for the Nats or some other playoff-caliber team at some point.
My Wil Myers for their Corey Kluber?
Who do you take? (My offense is stacked)
@ctrengove:
I always lean to the side of the hitter in these one-for-one trades. But if your offense is really stacked and you could use the bat, I can see that working. Kluber was just traded for Trevor Story in one of my leagues, though I think we can agree that is ridiculous.
I would hold out for more, personally, especially since Myers went 28/28 last season.
@mikeMaher:
It’s funny, but I’m having trouble moving Myers. I actually tried trading him 1-for-1 for Strasburg – was rejected – and then for Lester – rejected again.
Their responses:
Strasburg rejection – “I can get better players on the waiver wire.” (eye roll…)
Lester rejcetion – “Not trading a Cy Young candidate for a decent 1B.” (wrong year…)
@ctrengove:
Weird. If you’re in any of my leagues I’ll take him off your hands!
Thoughts on Big Jed Gyorko? I thought he would be close to cracking top 100. MI with big power not much avg similar to Schoop. Thanks great job!
@Wacha Wacha:
Mike has him at #68. He’s had a great season so far.
@ctrengove:
Yup! 68 and will continue to rise if he keeps on hitting!
@ctrengove: I wonder though… would he crack Grey’s top 100? He seems to be down on him. Which I agreed with for a while, regarding ROS expectations. But Jedd has yet to show any slowing down.
Nice job on this list Mike. Dig the Justins lede as well.
@knucks:
Thanks! What’s not to like about Jedd? He has been raking all year and hit 30 home runs in 128 games last season. And he’s eligible all over the infield. I’ll take that every time.
@knucks: 100% agreed brother. Someone dropped him, I scooped him two days later as a batty call. Will likely not toss him back ROS. Hopefully we can high five every Monday as he rises up your list.
@knucks:
Yeah, I snagged him off the waiver wire in two leagues like a month ago and have been reaping the benefits ever since. High five!
@mikeMaher:
Would you look at that I scrolled right past him. My bad!
Good stuff Mike! I like the Haniger rank — how far away would you say he is from rejoining the team, and getting steady ABs?
@SheriffMcRawDawg:
Thanks! The latest is that he is supposed to start a rehab assignment tomorrow. As long as he doesn’t suffer any kind of setback he should be back in a week.
@mikeMaher: cool. starting today, over the 4 weeks only, would you want Haniger or Duda?
@SheriffMcRawDawg:
Haniger
Good stuff, Mike! My prediction is Smoak rises (pun!) as does Healy, and there’s 45 first basemen in the top 100 by season end
@Grey:
Thank you, sir! I just picked up Healy in my H2H and was able to enjoy that big Saturday he just had.
No problem, you keep doing good work like this, and we’re gonna move you into the front office of Razzball HQ
5×5 H2H Categories league with OBP instead of AVG
Ervin Santana and Carlos Santana for Edwin?
Currently pretty good in SP (Scherzer, McCullers, Ray, Santana, Berrios, Manaea, Maeda). Looking to upgrade C. Santana.
@Kyle:
I like it. Sellling high on Santana is the right move.
@mikeMaher:
(Ervin Santana, that is)
@Kyle:
Dude, your SP staff is nearly identical to mine:
Yours: Scherzer, McCullers, Ray, Santana, Berrios, Manaea, Maeda
Mine: Carrasco, McCullers, Ray, Santana, Berrios, Manaea.
Whoa.
I need a SS to replace Segura while he’s on the shelf in a points league with limited free agent moves (DL ones don’t count). The “best” options are Andrelton, Tim Anderson, Jordy Mercer, and a possibly re-surging (is that a word?) Taylor Motter. Thoughts?
@Jeremy:
Mercer has been the hottest the last two weeks, but I think I go with Simmons. His wOBA over the last two weeks is 7th among shortstops (Mercer is 1st), and he has been sprinkling in some home runs and stolen bases.
Looking to improve my offense…what do you think of this potential deal:
Jon Lester & Aaron Altherr for Marcel Ozuna & Jeff Samardzija?
— I’m also a little concerned about Lester. Aging, a lot of miles on the arm (including the long post-season run last year) and not off to a great start. I know he had a similar 1st half last year only to finish crazy strong…am I over-reacting?
Would love to hear your feedback and expert analysis. Thanks!!!
@AJ:
I assume you are the one getting Ozuna in this trade? If so, sign me up!
I think Lester will be fine but I also don’t think you are necessarily overreacting. Pretty much everyone on that Cubs roster is still hungover, though I do think they catch fire in the coming weeks.
Even so, that deal is worth it to add Ozuna.
I’m about to drop David Dahl and am deciding between Smoak and Domingo Santana. I want to lean toward Santana but curious as to why he’s not in your rankings.
@J Smo:
Santana is a guy I have in my spreadsheet as someone to watch. He is definitely someone on the cusp. Maybe I’m just late to the party on Santana, but I am waiting to see more before adding him.
@mikeMaher: I don’t get it, what does Domingo need to do?
He is healthy, he is young, he’s improved where it matters (-5 K%, +5FB%), he has elite power (27% HR/FB%), he has the tools for an elite BABIP (5% IFFB, 31% Pull)…
@westcoastpete:
Prove that he can consistently hit major league pitching, for starters. He has been back and forth between AAA and MLB for three seasons now. Which is fine, since he is still very young. I would argue that he has displayed plus-power so far, and can certainly develop more, but I wouldn’t call it elite.
I’m not saying he’s terrible, I’m just saying that I’m waiting to see him keep it up for a little while longer before I start considering him higher value than guys who have established value in the league.
FWIW, the Razzball ROS Projections has him at 144, while I have him slightly outside of the top 105 for now.
@mikeMaher: Alright I understand your point but I think you and the projections are penalizing him too much for the injuries last year. I’m adding 15% more playing time and believing in a healthy 2017 more than an injured 2016.
@mikeMaher: Also, his career 109 wRC+ over 188 games is far more consistent than a lot of guys on this list…
@westcoastpete:
Hey, you may be right. We’ll find out in a few weeks if I am just late to the party!
12 team h2h keep 4 (draft round based) league. Do you think Darvish (20th next year) and either Odor or Villar (12th) would be enough to snag Kershaw from the 2nd to last place team?
@Sean: i cant keep darvish next year based on league rules, so thinking of using him as a trade piece to upgrade.
@Sean:
My gut says probably not, but I like it if you can pull it off!
How bout zack cozart? dude is ranked 15th overall in my league and #1 SS. Give him some love or at least a little recognition for putting together a tree of a season so far.
@Mazel Tov:
He’s been great, but these rankings are ROS trade value. He has been in the league for 5 nears and has never produced at anywhere near this level. We’ll see if he can keep it up for a few more weeks.
OF is not my weakness. It’s merely a speculation add. Looking the add a 4/5 type OF in Odubel at the expense of one of Forsythe, Happ, Villar and Travis. 12t, h2h 6×6 OBP Dynasty
@Chucky:
Goodbye, Travis!
@mikeMaher:
Also, Grey mentioned Odubel in his piece this morning. He says buy (assuming the price is free).
i drafted Odubel in the 10th round and cut him after I put him in the lineup Week 8 when he went 2-24. Picked up Duda and haven’t looked back. Now I’m considering going back in. The cost would be Flowers, after lineups lock
@Chucky:
I say roll the dice and grab him. Higher upside. Flowers can be replaced.
Great analysis Mike, not a believer in Mazara ros. he’s been solid and batting in the middle of that lineup
@Metlgod:
Thanks. Mazara is another guy I looked at but ultimately left out. Razzball ROS Projections has him at 88, though.
I want to see some more consistent power from him, though. 6 HR in 221 PA this season doesn’t do it for me, at least for now.
Curious what made you move Story down this week? He’s been pretty good since coming back from the DL.
@Don:
I’m just kind of down on him overall. He has been better since coming back, you’re right. But even with being better he only posted the 87th best wOBA for players with at least 40 plate appearances the last two weeks.
His average has gone up more than 20 points in the last week or so, though. If he can keep hitting, and hit home runs at at least close to the clip he did last year, i’ll move him back up. For now, though, I like other options better.
@mikeMaher:
It does seems a crazy that you have a player like Ian Happ ranked higher than Trevor Story, ROS/Trade Value
@SDB: He’s looked better – plus has had quite a few games away from Coors. Watch those stats rise in the next few weeks :)
Aaaand Bour is DTD with ankle issue… dang!!
@MW:
Ugh! I jinxed him.
Do you cyclops MiLBers?
I’ve got room for one more. Keeper league but not full dynasty, so only so many stash spots. If you don’t think a guy will be starting by the beginning of next year, he’s generally not worth rostering.
choices: S.Kingery, N.Senzel, M.Kopech, K.Allard
(I have R.Hoskins, A.Meadows, Gleyber, J.Hoffman)
@Moneyball:
The MiLBers are defintely more Ralph’s specialty. He knows everything about these guys. I follow them too, but I won’t pretend to know half as much as Ralph does when he comes to prospects.
Hoskins is a favorite of mine, and I have Meadows in one of my own similar keeper leagues.
Of the choices you listed, I would definitely take a flier on Kopech. If he can get those walks under control, he could be in the show sooner rather than later. That’s a big if, but he has electric stuff.
Any concerns regarding a deGrom injury or his recent performance? Would a trade of Odor and Moncada for deGrom (12-team, 5×5, redraft league) be fair? Which side you prefer?
@Five-On-One:
I am mildly concerned, especially with the amount of walks recently. But, he also just came off of allowing 1 run in like 16 innings or something, which alleviates some of the injury concern.
That trade seems fair to me. I would like it more if it were a keeper league because of the Moncada aspect. Depends on if you think Odor will rebound. If you think he will, then it would be worth it.
Hey Mike:
Great stuff. And congrats on being promoted to Razzball HQ!
I see you don’t rank LoMo. I guess you’re not buying the “launch angle” stuff? Apparently he has changed dramatically and he’s hitting a ton more fly balls and HR’s
@Doug:
Haha, thanks! It’s not so much that I don’t believe the launch angle stuff (look at what it has done for Daniel Murphy!) but that I look at Logan Morrison’s career and become skeptical. This guy has nearly 3,000 plate appearances under his belt. He’s a career .244 hitter who is hitting .243 now. He just has some more home runs.
It’s possible that his 25.8% HR/FB means that he figured something out, but I think it’s more likely that he starts to regress a bit back to his career mark of just over 13%.
Interesting take on Smoak. Just curious, if all of his numbers are telling us that its for real, including saber stats, why are you banking on a regression? According to him, he had significant changes to his approach the plate.
Not saying he’s Thames, but same age, and both seemed to have figured something out.
@My Seven Rizzos:
I’m saying that the current metrics say it looks legit, but his career up until this point says something different. I mean, look at that rolling wOBA chart. It’s filled with hot streaks and ice cold slumps. I’m not saying he DEFINITELY regresses completely, but I am saying that I think he does, based on his career up until this point.
As for Thames, I think he’s a little bit different and unique just because he disappeared to a different league for a few years and dominated over there. Also, don’t look now but Thames just batted .221 in May.
@mikeMaher: Very good points. I’m hoping Smoak figured some magic out and just kills it, but of course, thats because i own shares!
Thanks Mike, keep up the good work!
@My Seven Rizzos:
Thanks! For your sake I hope Smoak continues to rake!
Thoughts on a 12 team H2H with OBP and no Avg. And QS and no W
Which side:
Trout, Ramos, Kepler, Wainwright
Springer, Gary Sanchez, Travis, Cole
Kepler/Travis is really a wash for team needs
@M:
Assuming this is a redraft league and not a keeper, I guess I gotta go with the Springer side.
beltre or dee gordon? ROS
@killerB:
Have to go Gordon at this point until we know Beltre is healthy and is going to produce like he did in 2016.
Hey, Mike. Avila, Contreras, or Hedges? Thanks!
@Jerry:
Contreras has the highest ceiling but Avila at this point.
Has Villar had his eyes checked this season? Do teams have programs for having the players’ eyesight checked regularly?
I am not being snarky – out of some one thousand or so major league players, it seems inevitable that some portion will have their eyes deteriorate from season to season. And the batters who see their K totals spike seem like prime suspects. Wasn’t it Kirby Puckett who suffered eyesight loss in the middle of his career?
@LenFuego:
Not that I know of, no. This isn’t unprecedented for Villar, though. He batted .209 a couple years ago. And he has as history of streakiness in the minors.
Puckett’s story is tragic. He was an elite player and woke up without vision in one of his eyes one morning. It wasn’t even like he had a gradual decline. He just woke up, couldn’t see, and his career was over.
Got an interesting trade proposal and want your input:
Conforto & Story for my Trea Turner & Kintzler.
Feels tough to give up the best player in the deal, but appetizing. Towards the bottom of the standings so I feel like I may need to take a chance.
@DRDAVE:
My gut is initially the same as yours, that I would hate to give up Turner. See above for my hesitations on Story, and Conforto has been slowing down too.
So, I am pretty hesitant about this deal. FWIW, here are the Razzball ROS Player Rater values:
Turner: $43.3 (2nd overall hitter)
Kintzler: $2.2
Story: $16.5
Conforto: $-2.2
So the Razzball rankings would lean heavily toward you not doing this deal unless you get more.
@mikeMaher:
Thanks a lot for the response. Shocked Conforto is ranked so poorly
@DRDAVE:
I was surprised to see that, too. I think his value rises in the coming weeks as long as he keeps playing and keeps hitting. My guess is that his value is hurt a little bit by the fact that he didn’t necessarily have a clear path to everyday playing time not that long ago. Unless he completely falls flat, I think is value goes up.
Hey Mike,
I am looking to upgrade my OF in a keeper league. I have been holding onto Buxton all year hoping he figures it out but I don’t really see any hope there. His eye has gotten a little better over the last month or so but he hasn’t been hitting the ball with any semblance of authority all season long. That being said…
Which of these bats do you like best? Or would you hang onto Buxton?
Jackie Bradley JR
Lorenzo Cain
M.Holliday
T.Joseph
D.Valencia
A.Altherr
@dubjay:
yeah, I have always been kind of meh on Buxton. I would definitely give Cain, Holliday, or Altherr a look over him. Even JBJ when he is hitting, but you have to go into that relationship knowing he is going to hit .400 some weeks and .100 other weeks.
You lost me at Jose Bautista #91.
@Bill:
Happy to have you for 1 through 90! : )
Does Gallo avg worry too much for top 100? Everything else is elite.
@TTRA1N:
Pretty much, yeah. I have him just outside the 105 but will have to add him despite the average if he keeps mashing.
why avisail dropped off? he’s been awesome, look at that slash line
@Mordacious Levator: for example i’d easily trade mcclutchen his knee for him.
@Mordacious Levator:
He had been scuffling. No homers for two weeks and his average dropped 30 points. Seems to have turned it around now. I am skeptical of him continuing at this pace or anywhere near this pace, but if he keeps hitting I’ll have to put him back. I am working on next week’s version of the Top 100 tomorrow so will take another look at him. Thanks for reading.