Let’s begin by having a moment of silence for the fact that we will be without Mike Trout for two months. I dropped him to 23 in the rankings below, which are considered ROS trade value. I know it is hard to justify Trout over some talented players who aren’t going to miss two months, I just couldn’t bring myself to drop him much lower. The Razzball Player Rater has him all the way down to 71 for ROS projections. Personally, if I were to trade Trout, I would hold out for the highest bid and make someone overpay. Otherwise, I’m not moving him. And in keeper leagues, I would still have him at number 1 and wouldn’t entertain offers.

Now, for the players who are playing right now. The two players I moved up and want to focus on this week are Justin Bour and Justin Smoak. I received some questions and comments on here and on Twitter last week about Smoak, so let’s take a look at him first. He has looked great this season, but I have my doubts.

While Smoak’s slash line and counting stats look great right now, unless he finally figured everything out at 30 years old, I have my doubts. Yes, he is currently on pace for almost 40 home runs. Yes, he is striking out 17.9% of the time, which is almost half as much as he did last season and is well below his career average of 23.5%. Through 55 games and over 200 plate appearances in 2017, the metrics back up what he is doing.

But here’s the thing.

Smoak has been in the league for eight seasons and has over 3,000 plate appearances. He’s a career .227 / .311 / .402 hitter. His previous high for home runs in a season is 20, which he did back in 2013. Take a look at his wOBA by season:

Translation: Smoak isn’t this good. This probably isn’t going to last, and a regression is coming.

Now, as far as Justin Bour goes, I am still skeptical but am less skeptical. Bour is 29 but has just over 1,000 plate appearances at the MLB level. He has displayed this kind of power before, both at the major league level and in the minors, so it is easier to believe that his current power stroke is real. Will he continue to hit up around .300? No, but it is reasonable to expect him to hit in the .250-.270 range and offer up 30 home runs, as long as he can stay healthy (which he can’t always do).

The main point here is that, while Bour is only a year younger, he doesn’t have as much of a negative track record that we can hold against him. He has also displayed plus-power in the past, while Smoak has always struggled to fulfill his potential in that department. Bour is likely to regress a bit as well, but I don’t think his regression will be as extreme as Smoak’s. If I had to pick between these two first basemen as a guy I value higher ROS I am taking Bour every time. Maybe I’m just biased now that I live in South Florida, or maybe their track records are telling us everything we need to know about them…

Note: These rankings are considered ROS Trade Value

Mike Maher’s Top 100 Hitters

(Rankings based on 12-team Roto. GREEN = player rising. RED = player dropping. BLUE = new to the 100.)

Rank Name Team Pos
1 Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1B
2 Bryce Harper WSH OF
3 Mookie Betts BOS OF
4 Nolan Arenado COL 3B
5 Jose Altuve HOU 2B
6 Charlie Blackmon COL OF
7 Kris Bryant CHC 3B/OF
8 Joey Votto CIN 1B
9 Daniel Murphy WSH 1B/2B
10 Corey Seager LAD SS
11 Nelson Cruz SEA OF
12 Trea Turner WSH SS/2B/OF
13 Francisco Lindor CLE SS
14 Manny Machado BAL 3B/SS
15 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B
16 Wil Myers SD 1B/OF
17 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B
18 Josh Donaldson TOR 3B
19 Giancarlo Stanton MIA OF
20 Robinson Cano SEA 2B
21 Carlos Correa HOU SS
22 J.D. Martinez DET OF
23 Mike Trout LAA OF
24 Matt Kemp ATL OF
25 Brian Dozier MIN 2B
26 Ryan Braun MIL OF
27 George Springer HOU OF
28 Jose Ramirez CLE 3B/OF
29 Aaron Judge NYY OF
30 Miguel Sano MIN 3B/OF
31 Yoenis Cespedes NYM OF
32 Michael Conforto NYM OF
33 Jake Lamb ARI 3B
34 Eric Thames MIL 1B/OF
35 Edwin Encarnacion CLE 1B
36 Christian Yelich MIA OF
37 Ian Desmond COL OF
38 Xander Bogaerts BOS SS
39 Marcell Ozuna MIA OF
40 Andrew Benintendi BOS OF
41 Khris Davis OAK OF
42 Buster Posey SF C/1B
43 Mark Trumbo BAL OF
44 Kyle Seager SEA 3B
45 Justin Upton DET OF
46 Michael Brantley CLE OF
47 Jose Abreu CWS 1B
48 Anthony Rendon WSH 3B
49 A.J. Pollock ARI OF
50 Corey Dickerson TB OF
51 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B
52 Carlos Gonzalez COL OF
53 Ryan Zimmerman WAS 1B
54 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B
55 Matt Carpenter STL 1B/2B/3B
56 Adam Duvall CIN OF
57 Hanley Ramirez BOS 1B
58 Jay Bruce NYM OF
59 Gary Sanchez NYY C
60 Adam Jones BAL OF
61 Rougned Odor TEX 2B
62 Jonathan Villar MIL 3B/SS
63 Chris Davis BAL 1B
64 Evan Longoria TB 3B
65 Albert Pujols LAA 1B
66 Eugenio Suarez CIN 3B
67 DJ LeMahieu COL 2B
68 Jedd Gyorko STL 2B/3B/SS
69 Billy Hamilton CIN OF
70 Gregory Polanco PIT OF
71 Jean Segura SEA 2B/SS
72 Ian Kinsler DET 2B
73 Lorenzo Cain KC OF
74 Mitch Haniger SEA OF
75 Eric Hosmer KC 1B
76 Chris Owings ARI 2B/SS
77 Dee Gordon MIA 2B
78 Justin Turner LAD 3B
79 Scott Schebler CIN OF
80 Elvis Andrus TEX SS
81 Carlos Santana CLE 1B
82 Aledmys Diaz STL SS
83 Keon Broxton MIL OF
84 Ian Happ CHC OF
85 Salvador Perez KC C
86 Yonder Alonso OAK 1B
87 Starlin Castro NYY 2B
88 Brett Gardner NYY OF
89 Trevor Story COL SS
90 Andrew McCutchen PIT OF
91 Jose Bautista TOR OF
92 Alex Bregman HOU 3B
93 Odubel Herrera PHI OF
94 Justin Bour MIA 1B
95 Ender Inciarte ATL OF
96 Adrian Beltre TEX 3B
97 Mark Reynolds COL 1B
100 Eduardo Nunez SF 3B/SS/OF
98 Yasmani Grandal LAD C
99 Jonathan Schoop BAL 2B

The Honorable Mentions (Next Five In…)

Rank Name Pos Team
101 Justin Smoak TOR 1B
102 Ryon Healy OAK 1B/3B
103 Travis Shaw MIL 1B/3B
104 Aaron Hicks NYY OF
105 Kevin Kiermaier TB OF

Dropped from the rankings: Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, Avisail Garcia, David Peralta, Devon Travis.

As is always the case with the Top 100 rankings, don’t agree with something?

 

DROP THOSE COMMENTS!

If you want to talk fantasy baseball or football or have players you want Mike to feature, hit him up on Twitter at @mikeMaher or post a comment below!

 

 

85 Comments
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Mordacious Levator
Mordacious Levator
5 years ago

why avisail dropped off? he’s been awesome, look at that slash line

Mordacious Levator
Mordacious Levator
Reply to  Mordacious Levator
5 years ago

@Mordacious Levator: for example i’d easily trade mcclutchen his knee for him.

TTRA1N
TTRA1N
5 years ago

Does Gallo avg worry too much for top 100? Everything else is elite.

Bill
Bill
5 years ago

You lost me at Jose Bautista #91.

dubjay
dubjay
5 years ago

Hey Mike,

I am looking to upgrade my OF in a keeper league. I have been holding onto Buxton all year hoping he figures it out but I don’t really see any hope there. His eye has gotten a little better over the last month or so but he hasn’t been hitting the ball with any semblance of authority all season long. That being said…
Which of these bats do you like best? Or would you hang onto Buxton?
Jackie Bradley JR
Lorenzo Cain
M.Holliday
T.Joseph
D.Valencia
A.Altherr

DRDAVE
DRDAVE
5 years ago

Got an interesting trade proposal and want your input:

Conforto & Story for my Trea Turner & Kintzler.

Feels tough to give up the best player in the deal, but appetizing. Towards the bottom of the standings so I feel like I may need to take a chance.

DRDAVE
DRDAVE
Reply to  mikeMaher
5 years ago

@mikeMaher:

Thanks a lot for the response. Shocked Conforto is ranked so poorly

LenFuego
LenFuego
5 years ago

Has Villar had his eyes checked this season? Do teams have programs for having the players’ eyesight checked regularly?

I am not being snarky – out of some one thousand or so major league players, it seems inevitable that some portion will have their eyes deteriorate from season to season. And the batters who see their K totals spike seem like prime suspects. Wasn’t it Kirby Puckett who suffered eyesight loss in the middle of his career?

Jerry
Jerry
5 years ago

Hey, Mike. Avila, Contreras, or Hedges? Thanks!

killerB
killerB
5 years ago

beltre or dee gordon? ROS

M
M
5 years ago

Thoughts on a 12 team H2H with OBP and no Avg. And QS and no W

Which side:
Trout, Ramos, Kepler, Wainwright

Springer, Gary Sanchez, Travis, Cole

Kepler/Travis is really a wash for team needs

My Seven Rizzos
My Seven Rizzos
5 years ago

Interesting take on Smoak. Just curious, if all of his numbers are telling us that its for real, including saber stats, why are you banking on a regression? According to him, he had significant changes to his approach the plate.

Not saying he’s Thames, but same age, and both seemed to have figured something out.

My Seven Rizzos
My Seven Rizzos
Reply to  mikeMaher
5 years ago

@mikeMaher: Very good points. I’m hoping Smoak figured some magic out and just kills it, but of course, thats because i own shares!

Thanks Mike, keep up the good work!

Doug
Doug
5 years ago

Hey Mike:

Great stuff. And congrats on being promoted to Razzball HQ!

I see you don’t rank LoMo. I guess you’re not buying the “launch angle” stuff? Apparently he has changed dramatically and he’s hitting a ton more fly balls and HR’s

Five-On-One
Five-On-One
5 years ago

Any concerns regarding a deGrom injury or his recent performance? Would a trade of Odor and Moncada for deGrom (12-team, 5×5, redraft league) be fair? Which side you prefer?

Moneyball
Moneyball
5 years ago

Do you cyclops MiLBers?

I’ve got room for one more. Keeper league but not full dynasty, so only so many stash spots. If you don’t think a guy will be starting by the beginning of next year, he’s generally not worth rostering.

choices: S.Kingery, N.Senzel, M.Kopech, K.Allard

(I have R.Hoskins, A.Meadows, Gleyber, J.Hoffman)

MW
MW
5 years ago

Aaaand Bour is DTD with ankle issue… dang!!

Don
Don
5 years ago

Curious what made you move Story down this week? He’s been pretty good since coming back from the DL.

SDB
SDB
Reply to  mikeMaher
5 years ago

@mikeMaher:

It does seems a crazy that you have a player like Ian Happ ranked higher than Trevor Story, ROS/Trade Value

Utah Green Sox
Utah Green Sox
Reply to  SDB
5 years ago

@SDB: He’s looked better – plus has had quite a few games away from Coors. Watch those stats rise in the next few weeks :)

Metlgod
Metlgod
5 years ago

Great analysis Mike, not a believer in Mazara ros. he’s been solid and batting in the middle of that lineup

Chucky
Chucky
5 years ago

OF is not my weakness. It’s merely a speculation add. Looking the add a 4/5 type OF in Odubel at the expense of one of Forsythe, Happ, Villar and Travis. 12t, h2h 6×6 OBP Dynasty

Chucky
Chucky
Reply to  mikeMaher
5 years ago

i drafted Odubel in the 10th round and cut him after I put him in the lineup Week 8 when he went 2-24. Picked up Duda and haven’t looked back. Now I’m considering going back in. The cost would be Flowers, after lineups lock

Mazel Tov
Mazel Tov
5 years ago

How bout zack cozart? dude is ranked 15th overall in my league and #1 SS. Give him some love or at least a little recognition for putting together a tree of a season so far.

Sean
Sean
5 years ago

12 team h2h keep 4 (draft round based) league. Do you think Darvish (20th next year) and either Odor or Villar (12th) would be enough to snag Kershaw from the 2nd to last place team?

Sean
Sean
Reply to  Sean
5 years ago

@Sean: i cant keep darvish next year based on league rules, so thinking of using him as a trade piece to upgrade.

J Smo
J Smo
5 years ago

I’m about to drop David Dahl and am deciding between Smoak and Domingo Santana. I want to lean toward Santana but curious as to why he’s not in your rankings.

westcoastpete
westcoastpete
Reply to  mikeMaher
5 years ago

@mikeMaher: I don’t get it, what does Domingo need to do?

He is healthy, he is young, he’s improved where it matters (-5 K%, +5FB%), he has elite power (27% HR/FB%), he has the tools for an elite BABIP (5% IFFB, 31% Pull)…

westcoastpete
westcoastpete
Reply to  mikeMaher
5 years ago

@mikeMaher: Alright I understand your point but I think you and the projections are penalizing him too much for the injuries last year. I’m adding 15% more playing time and believing in a healthy 2017 more than an injured 2016.

westcoastpete
westcoastpete
Reply to  mikeMaher
5 years ago

@mikeMaher: Also, his career 109 wRC+ over 188 games is far more consistent than a lot of guys on this list…

AJ
AJ
5 years ago

Looking to improve my offense…what do you think of this potential deal:

Jon Lester & Aaron Altherr for Marcel Ozuna & Jeff Samardzija?

— I’m also a little concerned about Lester. Aging, a lot of miles on the arm (including the long post-season run last year) and not off to a great start. I know he had a similar 1st half last year only to finish crazy strong…am I over-reacting?

Would love to hear your feedback and expert analysis. Thanks!!!

Jeremy
Jeremy
5 years ago

I need a SS to replace Segura while he’s on the shelf in a points league with limited free agent moves (DL ones don’t count). The “best” options are Andrelton, Tim Anderson, Jordy Mercer, and a possibly re-surging (is that a word?) Taylor Motter. Thoughts?

Kyle
Kyle
5 years ago

5×5 H2H Categories league with OBP instead of AVG

Ervin Santana and Carlos Santana for Edwin?

Currently pretty good in SP (Scherzer, McCullers, Ray, Santana, Berrios, Manaea, Maeda). Looking to upgrade C. Santana.

ctrengove
ctrengove
Reply to  Kyle
5 years ago

@Kyle:

Dude, your SP staff is nearly identical to mine:

Yours: Scherzer, McCullers, Ray, Santana, Berrios, Manaea, Maeda
Mine: Carrasco, McCullers, Ray, Santana, Berrios, Manaea.

Whoa.

Grey
Admin
5 years ago

Good stuff, Mike! My prediction is Smoak rises (pun!) as does Healy, and there’s 45 first basemen in the top 100 by season end

Grey
Admin
Reply to  mikeMaher
5 years ago

No problem, you keep doing good work like this, and we’re gonna move you into the front office of Razzball HQ

SheriffMcRawDawg
SheriffMcRawDawg
5 years ago

Good stuff Mike! I like the Haniger rank — how far away would you say he is from rejoining the team, and getting steady ABs?

SheriffMcRawDawg
SheriffMcRawDawg
Reply to  mikeMaher
5 years ago

@mikeMaher: cool. starting today, over the 4 weeks only, would you want Haniger or Duda?

Wacha Wacha
Wacha Wacha
5 years ago

Thoughts on Big Jed Gyorko? I thought he would be close to cracking top 100. MI with big power not much avg similar to Schoop. Thanks great job!

ctrengove
ctrengove
Reply to  Wacha Wacha
5 years ago

@Wacha Wacha:

Mike has him at #68. He’s had a great season so far.

knucks
knucks
Reply to  ctrengove
5 years ago

@ctrengove: I wonder though… would he crack Grey’s top 100? He seems to be down on him. Which I agreed with for a while, regarding ROS expectations. But Jedd has yet to show any slowing down.

Nice job on this list Mike. Dig the Justins lede as well.

knucks
knucks
Reply to  knucks
5 years ago

@knucks: 100% agreed brother. Someone dropped him, I scooped him two days later as a batty call. Will likely not toss him back ROS. Hopefully we can high five every Monday as he rises up your list.

Wacha Wacha
Wacha Wacha
Reply to  mikeMaher
5 years ago

@mikeMaher:

Would you look at that I scrolled right past him. My bad!

ctrengove
ctrengove
5 years ago

My Wil Myers for their Corey Kluber?

Who do you take? (My offense is stacked)

ctrengove
ctrengove
Reply to  mikeMaher
5 years ago

@mikeMaher:

It’s funny, but I’m having trouble moving Myers. I actually tried trading him 1-for-1 for Strasburg – was rejected – and then for Lester – rejected again.

Their responses:
Strasburg rejection – “I can get better players on the waiver wire.” (eye roll…)
Lester rejcetion – “Not trading a Cy Young candidate for a decent 1B.” (wrong year…)

What Happens in Vegas Stays in Vegas
What Happens in Vegas Stays in Vegas
5 years ago

Been offered a trade and would like your advice

My Arrietta, Blackmon,Trea Turner, D Robertson for his Kershaw, Judge, Bogaerts, Peraza.

As of now, Blackmon and Judge are a wash, I know Judge can’t sustain this pace but is he legit? Peraza should match Turners SBs.

Current roster is
Gold
Turner
Machado
Donaldson
IF Hanley
Of Blackmon Trumbo Desmond Poland
U Kipnis and Mousak

I could really use Kershaw counting stats and QS over Arrietta. Losing Robertson will hurt me on saves.

Seems like a lot of moving parts. Im thinking of countering Arrietta and Blackmon for Kershaw Judge.

Thanks for all your work