Tax Day is here! That means we start having some real conversations about who is letting us down so far. Still — it’s only week three of the fantasy season so some patience needs to be exercised — but there are some buying/selling opportunities out there…

 

Falling:

Charlie Blackmon: We all knew Blackmon wasn’t going to be a speed threat anymore, but so far this season he’s lost the power & contact threat as well. His K% (19.7) isn’t too far off from last year (19.3,) but his hard contact rate has dropped for the second season in a row leading to only 4 extra base hits. The biggest concern for me is that Blackmon’s overall contact rate has fallen for the 5th year in a row. Hopefully he can still manage 25 HRs, but I’d be worried about his peripheral numbers if these trends continue. I’d be looking to move Blackmon to someone who might think he can completely turn it around.

Anthony Rizzo: Maybe Rizzo is just a small starter. He’s only hitting .192 so far in 42 ABs. Last year, Rizzo’s batting average didn’t reach .250 until early June. From opening day to May 31st last year he had 8 HRs, but a .237 AVG. From June 1st on Rizzo hit 17 HRs with a .303 average. I’m thinking Rizzo will be fine and just hates cold weather or something — buy him before he takes off again.

Jesus Aguilar: Aguilar’s K% is down from last year, his BB% is up, his GB/FB/LD rates are all relatively similar, his contact% is up, but his BABIP is sitting at an unfortunate .176 — bad for 18th worst in the majors. This has to be a case of bad luck in the early season — I have Aguilar as a great buy low candidate.

 

Rising:

Domingo Santana: Sometimes a player gets so over-hyped in the pre-season that it’s impossible for him to not get overdrafted and become a bust. So far, that is not the case with Santana. He leads the MLB in hits and RBI, his K% is at the lowest of his career and despite being built like The Mountain at 6’5”, 220 lbs — he’s still swiped 3 bases. His .408 BABIP/.338 AVG should come down a bit — but not enough that I’d be willing to sell him unless I got an offer that blew me away.

Wil Myers: Myers himself has been a solid power/speed threat in the early going with 3 HRs and 2 SBs. However, I’m a bit more concerned with Myers. He’s BB/K ratio is sitting a 0.16, his BABIP is .412, his contact% is actually at it’s lowest point in his career and swinging strike% is at it’s highest of his career. After 4 straight seasons of having a batting average between .243 and .253, it’s unlikely that Myers is all of a sudden a .300 hitter. I’d be looking to sell if you can.

Pete Alonso: This guy should already be well into his sophomore slump this season if it wasn’t for the Mets being patient with him last year. Well, maybe that’s paying off. He’s been one of the most exciting players to watch this year with his Herculean power. His 69.3% contact rate isn’t the best — but when he is making contact it is going high, it is going far, it is going gone! There’s a lot to like here: his 51.5% FB rate is 16th in the league. Pair that with his 4th place hard contact rate of 57.6% is a recipe for 40 HRs.

 

Next Up:

There are a few players having fine seasons so far — but there are a few concerns I have about them this early in the season. In no particular order:

 

Top 100 Hitters

Rank Name Position Team Last Change
1 Mike Trout OF LAA 1 0
2 Mookie Betts OF BOS 2 0
3 Christian Yelich OF MIL 3 0
4 Manny Machado SS SD 5 1
5 Javier Baez 2B/SS/3B CHC 6 1
6 J.D. Martinez OF BOS 7 1
7 Nolan Arenado 3B COL 8 1
8 Alex Bregman 3B/SS HOU 9 1
9 Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ATL 10 1
10 Jose Altuve 2B HOU 11 1
11 Bryce Harper OF TBD 12 1
12 Paul Goldschmidt 1B StL 13 1
13 Cody Bellinger 1B/OF LAD 21 8
14 Jose Ramirez 3B CLE 4 -10
15 Khris Davis DH OAK 23 8
16 Freddie Freeman 1B ATL 14 -2
17 Trevor Story SS COL 15 -2
18 Aaron Judge OF NYY 16 -2
19 Anthony Rendon 3B WAS 26 7
20 Andrew Benintendi OF BOS 17 -3
21 Juan Soto OF WAS 18 -3
22 Kris Bryant 3B/OF CHC 20 -2
23 Starling Marte OF PIT 24 1
24 Rhys Hoskins OF PHI 25 1
25 Giancarlo Stanton OF NYY 27 2
26 Eugenio Suarez 3B CIN 28 2
27 Xander Bogaerts SS BOS 29 2
28 Carlos Correa SS HOU 30 2
29 Whit Merrifield 2B KC 31 2
30 Adalberto Mondesi SS KC 38 8
31 Lorenzo Cain OF MIL 32 1
32 Tommy Pham OF TBR 33 1
33 George Springer OF HOU 34 1
34 Charlie Blackmon OF COL 19 -15
35 Trea Turner SS WAS 35 0
36 Marcell Ozuna OF StL 36 0
37 Francisco Lindor SS CLE 37 0
38 Ozzie Albies 2B ATL 39 1
39 Anthony Rizzo 1B CHC 22 -17
40 Mitch Haniger OF SEA 41 1
41 Gleyber Torres 2B NYY 42 1
42 Eddie Rosario OF MIN 45 3
43 Jean Segura SS PHI 46 3
44 Corey Seager SS LAD 48 4
45 Robinson Cano 2B NYM 49 4
46 Josh Donaldson 3B ATL 50 4
47 Matt Chapman 3B OAK 51 4
48 Nick Castellanos OF DET 43 -5
49 Michael Conforto OF NYM 54 5
50 Wil Myers 3B/OF SD 61 11
51 Joey Votto 1B CIN 40 -11
52 Justin Turner 3B LAD 56 4
53 Edwin Encarnacion 1B SEA 58 5
54 Domingo Santana OF SEA 86 32
55 Matt Carpenter 1B/3B StL 44 -11
56 Jose Abreu 1B CHW 47 -9
57 Mike Moustakas 3B MIL 60 3
58 Travis Shaw 2B/3B MIL 59 1
59 Michael Brantley OF HOU 62 3
60 David Peralta OF ARI 63 3
61 J.T. Realmuto C PHI 52 -9
62 Yasmani Grandal C MIL 74 12
63 David Dahl OF COL 65 2
64 Nelson Cruz DH MIN 53 -11
65 Yasiel Puig OF CIN 57 -8
66 Stephen Piscotty OF OAK 66 0
67 Andrew McCutchen OF PHI 67 0
68 Max Muncy 1B/3B LAD 68 0
69 Vlad Guerrero Jr. 3B TOR 69 0
70 Mallex Smith OF SEA 71 1
71 Tim Anderson SS CHW 83 12
72 Shohei Ohtani DH LAA 72 0
73 Jesus Aguilar 1B MIL 55 -18
74 Gary Sanchez C NYY 64 -10
75 Willson Contreras C CHC 76 1
76 Jonathan Villar 2B BAL 77 1
77 Elvis Andrus SS TEX 79 2
78 Joey Gallo 1B/OF TEX 80 2
79 Wilson Ramos C NYM 81 2
80 Pete Alonso 1B NYM 99 19
81 A.J. Pollock OF LAD 75 -6
82 Yoan Moncada 2B CHW 88 6
83 Fernando Tatis Jr. SS SD 89 6
84 Amed Rosario SS NYM 90 6
85 Rougned Odor 2B TEX 78 -7
86 Eduardo Escobar SS/3B ARI 91 5
87 Aaron Hicks OF NYY 70 -17
88 Nomar Mazara OF TEX 85 -3
89 Brian Dozier 2B WAS 73 -16
90 Jurickson Profar 1B/SS/3B TEX 94 4
91 Victor Robles OF WAS NA NA
92 Dee Gordon 2B/OF SEA NA NA
93 Ender Inciarte OF ATL 84 -9
94 Enrique Hernandez 2B/SS/OF LAD 97 NA
95 Maikel Franco 3B PHI 98 NA
96 Austin Meadows OF TBR NA NA
97 Trey Mancini OF/1B BAL NA NA
98 Paul DeJong SS STL NA NA
99 Jason Heyward OF CHC NA NA
100 Kolten Wong 2B StL NA NA

 

 

  1. David says:
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    Thanks for write up……. who do you prefer ROS, Hampson or Galvis? Thanks

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry says:
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      Depends on your risk chasing —
      Hampson is clearly the superior player — but his playing time will be random.
      Galvis has a clear path to playing time — but isn’t as good.

  2. toolshed says:
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    What the hell is going on with Jose Ramirez? I didnt expect 39 hr again but the dude can’t hit anything right now. A slow start is one thing, but this is going back 40 games last year too

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry says:
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      I’m sure you already heard this, but JRam wasn’t hitting over .250 until April 24th last year.
      He’s got a higher hard contact rate so far this season (yay!) but also a higher soft contact rate (boo!)
      His BABIP is only .167 after last year’s 252.
      I’d obviously hold and wait until May 1.
      I think he’ll be fine — not 2018 foooiinnneee — but 2019 fine.

  3. Kruk_Ain't_An_Athlete says:
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    Hey, 14-team OBP 5×5 roto

    SS Willy Adames (ss only)
    MI Freddy Galvis (ss only)

    bench Scott Kingery

    I need to open up a spot. Who goes?

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry says:
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      Right now — unfortunately due to lack of playing time it has to be Kingery.

  4. dontbichetteme says:
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    Hey Kerry, some owner just dropped J.Aguilar. Id like to pick him up. I currently have E.Encarnacion and T.Shaw alternating at 1B. Do you like that move? I had him ranked about both going in to the season. Going to drop A.Miller or N.Eovaldi. Which would you drop?

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      Unless you’re in a holds league I’d drop Miller. OR if you want to wait –I’m giving Eovaldi one more start and then cutting him loose if he doesn’t ship up

  5. Normgi says:
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    Since DeJong (a Free Agent in my league) iis rated and Peraza failed to crack the Top-100, would you drop Peraza for DeJong?

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry says:
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      Depends on need — Peraza was ranked last week, but can just be wildly inconsistent. If you’re hurting for speed — I’d stick with Peraza and hope he turns it around.

  6. Batster says:
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    Would you drop fried for touisant?

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      I’d stick with Fried — he’s only got 1 minor league option left while Touissant has 3 — so when push starts coming to shove I think they’re more likely to keep Fried up.

  7. Lee says:
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    Why does Goldy go up by 1 but Rizzo down by 17? Outside of Goldys 3HR game opening weekend, there is not much difference and both are hitting around the mendoza line.

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      That’s a good point – I guess I’m just more of a Goldy believer. Let’s see how his next few weeks play out.

  8. Darrell Lester says:
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    Would you offer Blackmon for any of the below in 6×6 OPS, OF position specific dynasty league, (so need CF- Blackmon hasn’t played in center yet, FWIW).

    Marte, Cain, Springer, Pham

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      I like the upside and potential of all 4 of those guys more thank Blackmon.

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