Top 100 Hitters, Week 3: I’m the Taxman

Tax Day is here! That means we start having some real conversations about who is letting us down so far. Still — it’s only week three of the fantasy season so some patience needs to be exercised — but there are some buying/selling opportunities out there…

Falling:

Charlie Blackmon: We all knew Blackmon wasn’t going to be a speed threat anymore, but so far this season he’s lost the power & contact threat as well. His K% (19.7) isn’t too far off from last year (19.3,) but his hard contact rate has dropped for the second season in a row leading to only 4 extra base hits. The biggest concern for me is that Blackmon’s overall contact rate has fallen for the 5th year in a row. Hopefully he can still manage 25 HRs, but I’d be worried about his peripheral numbers if these trends continue. I’d be looking to move Blackmon to someone who might think he can completely turn it around.

Anthony Rizzo: Maybe Rizzo is just a small starter. He’s only hitting .192 so far in 42 ABs. Last year, Rizzo’s batting average didn’t reach .250 until early June. From opening day to May 31st last year he had 8 HRs, but a .237 AVG. From June 1st on Rizzo hit 17 HRs with a .303 average. I’m thinking Rizzo will be fine and just hates cold weather or something — buy him before he takes off again.

Jesus Aguilar: Aguilar’s K% is down from last year, his BB% is up, his GB/FB/LD rates are all relatively similar, his contact% is up, but his BABIP is sitting at an unfortunate .176 — bad for 18th worst in the majors. This has to be a case of bad luck in the early season — I have Aguilar as a great buy low candidate.

Rising:

Domingo Santana: Sometimes a player gets so over-hyped in the pre-season that it’s impossible for him to not get overdrafted and become a bust. So far, that is not the case with Santana. He leads the MLB in hits and RBI, his K% is at the lowest of his career and despite being built like The Mountain at 6’5”, 220 lbs — he’s still swiped 3 bases. His .408 BABIP/.338 AVG should come down a bit — but not enough that I’d be willing to sell him unless I got an offer that blew me away.

Wil Myers: Myers himself has been a solid power/speed threat in the early going with 3 HRs and 2 SBs. However, I’m a bit more concerned with Myers. He’s BB/K ratio is sitting a 0.16, his BABIP is .412, his contact% is actually at it’s lowest point in his career and swinging strike% is at it’s highest of his career. After 4 straight seasons of having a batting average between .243 and .253, it’s unlikely that Myers is all of a sudden a .300 hitter. I’d be looking to sell if you can.

Pete Alonso: This guy should already be well into his sophomore slump this season if it wasn’t for the Mets being patient with him last year. Well, maybe that’s paying off. He’s been one of the most exciting players to watch this year with his Herculean power. His 69.3% contact rate isn’t the best — but when he is making contact it is going high, it is going far, it is going gone! There’s a lot to like here: his 51.5% FB rate is 16th in the league. Pair that with his 4th place hard contact rate of 57.6% is a recipe for 40 HRs.

Next Up:

There are a few players having fine seasons so far — but there are a few concerns I have about them this early in the season. In no particular order:

• Dansby Swanson: .235 hitter over the last two years.
• Dan Vogelbach: .197 hitter in 127 pre-2019 minor league ABs.
• Alex Gordon: .225 hitter 2016-2018
• Jay Bruce: 9 HRs, .223 AVG in 94 games in 2018
• Kevin Kiermaier: Webster’s Dictionary defines injury prone as…
• Freddy Galvis: Career .246 hitter pre-2019.
• Brandon Lowe: 178 MLB ABs.
• Mitch Moreland: Career high 23 HRs.
• Kevin Pillar: Not really a power guy, not really a speed guy, not really a contact guy.
• Chad Pinder: 631 ABs: .247 AVG/.750 OPS.
• Clint Frazier: Legendary, Godlike, Once-in-a-Lifetime (minor league) bat speed.
• Dwight Smith Jr.: Who?!
• Nick Markakis: Career high 23 HRs — in 2007.
• Josh Bell: 2017 HRs: 26; 2018 HRs: 12.

Top 100 Hitters