Top 100 Hitters Second Half, 2017 Fantasy Baseball

Aaron Judge baffles me. Is he a beefy version of early 2000s Richie Sexson, or he is something more legit? No offense to early 2000s Richie, of course. His (we’re back to Judge, now) numbers in the minors (albeit a relatively small sample size of) suggest more of the former, but his 2017 insists on the latter. Strikeouts aside, he seems to have combined a complete and nearly flawless approach at the plate with a compact swing and elite power. In March, we weren’t even sure if he was going to be the everyday right fielder for the Yankees. Now, he is a lock to win Rookie of the Year, the clear favorite to win MVP, and could very well win the Triple Crown.

He has 30 home runs to only 13 doubles (big boy has three triples, too), which means nothing except that when he connects he CONNECTS. Lifting power, my friends. The fly ball revolution is upon us, and only 50 years after Ted Williams told us all about it. And with Judge’s superhuman power, a willingness and ability to drive (and lift) the ball to the opposite field, a right field porch in Yankee Stadium that is a few feet behind first base (roughly), and juiced baseballs that are leaving parks like they’re golf balls, what is a popup behind second base for most batters is a home run to the upper deck in right field for Judge. That was a very long sentence. Let’s pause to catch our breath here.

I don’t normally put much (read: any) stock into the Home Run Derby, but what Judge did the other night was otherworldly. He started the night as the favorite to win the thing but then started the first round at a 22 home run deficit because my man Justin Bour lit up the park with his #FatGuysRake power. Despite that pressure, he started off by hitting home runs to center field and right field. The dude went dead center and oppo for his first two home runs despite the fact that his opponent just went OFF for 22 dingers—the most of the night so far—and looked like he was about to knock off Judge in the first round. And he didn’t seem to feel the pressure or rush at the plate. He just casually popped dingers until they told him he had enough to advance. I don’t care who you are, that is Boss (capital B intended).

https://twitter.com/JATayler/status/884584345369030656

Now, do I think Judge is going to hit 30 home runs again in the second half? No. Do I think he could, if pitchers keep making the mistake of feeding the most locked-in masher in baseball strikes? Sure. But I think a couple things happen here. For starters, I think Judge is going to start getting walked more, which was already happening at the end of the first half. Second, his .429 BABIP and 41.7 HR/FB% HAVE to come back down to Earth at least a little bit, right? Right? You would think so, but 2017 has been a weird bird, so who knows. His BABIP is insane, but that is also because he hits almost everything out of the park, and fan catches do not affect BABIP.

He could regress a little bit in the second half just due to some bad luck here and there. Maybe a few would-be home runs in other stadiums will be 418 flyouts to dead center field in Fenway Park. Maybe he gets frustrated at being walked so often and starts swinging at more pitches out of the zone. Or he could continue hitting super balls into space as we head into the hottest months of the summer and end the season. All are seemingly equally likely, at this point. But the longer he goes without coming back to Earth, the more we have to wonder if he ever will.

Before we get into my rankings, let’s see where some others rank Judge:

Grey Albright: 8th overall, 6th hitter.

You can and should read Grey’s Top 100 for the 2nd Half here, but here is the quick blurb he gave on Judge:

*shrugs* No idea. He could be the best player of the 2nd half, or, if absolutely everything we know about hitter’s peripherals holds true, he hits 17 HRs and .260. At this point, I’d put five dollars on both outcomes and be happy getting back ten dollars minus the vig. Projections: 43/19/50/.272/3

Razzball Player Rater, ROS: 52nd hitter, 34/13/38/.258/3
FantasyPros Expert Consensus: 22nd overall, 19th hitter.

And now, for my second half rankings. I did away with the color-coded risers, fallers, and new additions for this week because I really started with a blank slate for my rankings to start the second half. That will return next week when I update these for the first time.

Note: These rankings are considered ROS Trade Value

Rank	Name	Team	Pos
1	Mike Trout	LAA	OF
2	Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	1B
3	Bryce Harper	WSH	OF
4	Nolan Arenado	COL	3B
5	Daniel Murphy	WSH	1B/2B
6	Jose Altuve	HOU	2B
7	Aaron Judge	NYY	OF
8	Kris Bryant	CHC	3B/OF
9	Mookie Betts	BOS	OF
10	Anthony Rizzo	CHC	1B
11	Joey Votto	CIN	1B
12	Charlie Blackmon	COL	OF
13	George Springer	HOU	OF
14	Carlos Correa	HOU	SS
15	Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	OF
16	Corey Seager	LAD	SS
17	Nelson Cruz	SEA	OF
18	Francisco Lindor	CLE	SS
19	Freddie Freeman	ATL	1B
20	Jose Ramirez	CLE	3B/OF
21	Robinson Cano	SEA	2B
22	J.D. Martinez	DET	OF
23	Marcell Ozuna	MIA	OF
24	Manny Machado	BAL	3B/SS
25	Cody Bellinger	LAD	1B
26	Jean Segura	SEA	2B/SS
27	Miguel Sano	MIN	3B/OF
28	Dee Gordon	MIA	2B
29	Jake Lamb	ARI	3B
30	Edwin Encarnacion	CLE	1B
31	Josh Donaldson	TOR	3B
32	Ryan Braun	MIL	OF
33	Wil Myers	SD	1B/OF
34	Justin Turner	LAD	3B
35	Anthony Rendon	WSH	3B
36	Yoenis Cespedes	NYM	OF
37	Khris Davis	OAK	OF
38	Brian Dozier	MIN	2B
39	Jose Abreu	CWS	1B
40	Billy Hamilton	CIN	OF
41	Adam Duvall	CIN	OF
42	Ryan Zimmerman	WAS	1B
43	Xander Bogaerts	BOS	SS
44	Eric Thames	MIL	1B/OF
45	Justin Upton	DET	OF
46	Andrew Benintendi	BOS	OF
47	Kyle Seager	SEA	3B
48	Matt Kemp	ATL	OF
49	Miguel Cabrera	DET	1B
50	Matt Carpenter	STL	1B/2B/3B
51	Gary Sanchez	NYY	C
52	Rougned Odor	TEX	2B
53	Chris Owings	ARI	2B/SS
54	Ian Desmond	COL	OF
55	A.J. Pollock	ARI	OF
56	Corey Dickerson	TB	OF
57	Lorenzo Cain	KC	OF
58	Christian Yelich	MIA	OF
59	Jedd Gyorko	STL	2B/3B/SS
60	Elvis Andrus	TEX	SS
61	Scott Schebler	CIN	OF
62	Buster Posey	SF	C/1B
63	Starling Marte	PIT	OF
64	Andrew McCutchen	PIT	OF
65	Michael Conforto	NYM	OF
66	Jay Bruce	NYM	OF
67	Eric Hosmer	KC	1B
68	Ian Kinsler	DET	2B
69	Mitch Haniger	SEA	OF
70	Salvador Perez	KC	C
71	Jonathan Schoop	BAL	2B
72	Travis Shaw	MIL	1B/3B
73	Adrian Beltre	TEX	3B
74	Avisail Garcia	CHW	OF
75	Mike Moustakas	KC	3B
76	Carlos Gomez	TEX	OF
77	Mark Trumbo	BAL	OF
78	Justin Smoak	TOR	1B
79	Ian Happ	CHC	2B/OF
80	Evan Longoria	TB	3B
81	Ryon Healy	OAK	1B/3B
82	Adam Jones	BAL	OF
83	Michael Brantley	CLE	OF
84	Mark Reynolds	COL	1B
85	Brett Gardner	NYY	OF
86	Eugenio Suarez	CIN	3B
87	Yonder Alonso	OAK	1B
88	Domingo Santana	MIL	OF
89	Logan Morrison	TB	1B
90	Justin Bour	MIA	1B
91	Keon Broxton	MIL	OF
92	Starlin Castro	NYY	2B
93	Carlos Santana	CLE	1B
94	Eduardo Nunez	SF	3B/SS/OF
95	Jonathan Villar	MIL	2B/3B/SS
96	Hanley Ramirez	BOS	1B
97	Trevor Story	COL	SS
98	Jose Bautista	TOR	OF
99	Ender Inciarte	ATL	OF
100	DJ LeMahieu	COL	2B

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