Happy Monday, Razzball faithful!
I mentioned this last week, but it bears repeating especially since the Mariners’ starting pitcher group has been lights out for most of the season.
Oh, you don’t believe me? Well, let’s go to the cherry tree and pick some juicy numbers that should pop your eyeballs out a bit more.
TEAM STATISTIC | TEAM TOTAL | MLB RANKING |
---|---|---|
Earned Run Average | 3.53 | 1st |
Hits Allowed | 1038 | 1st |
Runs Allowed | 538 | 1st |
Walks allowed | 325 | 1st |
Strikeouts | 1241 | 9th |
WHIP | 1.08 | 1st |
Batting Average Against | .221 | 1st |
Oh. So you’re saying they’re good?
Thanks, Wade.
The most impressive part of this whole thing is that ALL of Seattle’s SP group has been contributing at a high level.
I’m sure the next question is one that more than a few of our fantasy enthusiasts have asked themselves already. And because mid-September is the final trip down the water slide, (both figuratively and likely literally), it’s never too early to think of 2025 while we Marvel at what this group of starting pitchers can do down the home stretch.
How do we rank the Top 5 rotation for the Seattle Mariners in spring 2025?
Luis Castillo is the ace, no? I mean, they did give up Noelvi Marte and three other prospects to land him at the 2022 trade deadline.
Luis Castillo…you know…the SP with the worst WHIP and ERA of that M’s starting five?!
I think I said it last week, so I won’t go too far with it again. But the fact of the matter is you cannot go wrong with any of these arms. Drafting the 5th best Mariners’ starter is akin to dating the 5th place winner of a beauty pageant.
“If you’re a star among stars, it doesn’t matter how brightly you’re shining just as long as you’re doing your part to illuminate the sky…”
<Barf emoji>
That sounds like a bad fortune cookie message or a poorly executed wooden sign sold in a home decor store.
When your worst starting pitcher has an ERA of 3.64 and a 1.17 WHIP? Ya, your squad should be sitting pretty…uh…pretty.
For this week’s lede, I wanted to write a bit about Logan.
No, not Hugh Jackman’s Marvel character. But this Logan can carve up hitters just as well as the aforementioned X-Man can.
One has lethal hands that can execute an adversary with razor-sharp control.
And the other is Wolverine.
Although Logan Gilbert’s ERA has taken a bit of a hit in the second half, this SP is about as good as it gets.
He’s the leader in WHIP among all MLB starters (0.88). He has the third-lowest BAA among qualified SPs (.194).
HA! But that strikeout rate must be terrible if the team ranks 9th overall!
You tell ‘em, Hugh.
Logan Gilbert’s 9.26 K/9 ranks 18th. Overall. Yep, that’s better than Shota Imanaga, Framber Valdez, and his Emerald City colleague, Luis Castillo.
At the risk of making this one big long love-fest for the Seattle Starters, I’ll re-post a screenshot that I used a few weeks ago (updated as of yesterday, of course).
In the paraphrased words of Logan’s BFF, Deadpool…“You may be wondering what’s with all the red? Well, that’s so you can’t see when this starting pitcher makes the bad guys bleed”.
There’s only one more question that we haven’t answered yet. Which spot does Logan Gilbert occupy on the Seattle Mariners’ 2025 Starting Pitcher depth chart?
Is he a #1? An SP3? Do the two guys at the back end build enough stamina over the winter to push Gilbert to the SP5 spot?
It’s doubtful that Mariners fans care what their rotation depth chart looks like in 2025. As long as it has all five of these solid starting pitchers healthy and ready to throw a lot of innings, fans will be ecstatic.
But I did say that Gilbert has had a rough few starts muttered throughout his second half. How does that affect his Top 100 Stating Pitchers ranking this week?
Well, as always, before we get to the list, I need to plug a couple of things for y’all first. If you want to check the spot I usually have open when flipping through my information on Sunday afternoons, you’re looking for that Player Rater leaderboard. This is always a great resource to use if you’re doing research. A bit of this, and a splash of that goes into the prep work for our weekly Top 100 Starting Pitchers list.
Of course, if you’re one of those doubting-your-own-gut-instinct fantasy managers, or simply want to use a great resource that will point you in the right direction every week, The Streamonator is here to help you answer those burning questions.
If you haven’t signed up for it, this should be your go-to reference for the entire season. It will save you a lot of time researching and often includes those “Oh, I never thought about that” solutions. The Razzball subscriptions are well worth the price of admission. If you’re serious about improving throughout the season, check the link, yo.
ONE MORE THING before we get to the list!
Remember that at this point in the season, lots of things can change from day to day or even hour to hour. I’ll do my best to write these last few weeks up with the information that I have available when I write it, but remember to ALWAYS check for any news on your starters just in case they get pushed back, miss a start, or are told by a manager that they have a mysterious injury that shuts them down for a few days to manage their innings the rest of the way.
The Top Starting Pitchers for 2024
RANK
(LAST WEEK) |
Name | TEAM | NOTES |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Tarik Skubal | Tigers | 5.2 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K. He got smacked around a bit by OAK. *eyes emoji* Yes, that Oakland. He’s still one of the best in the biz. The 96 pitches make me wonder about that “load management” nonsense too. |
2 | Zack Wheeler | Phillies | Two straight wins and he hasn’t given up more than two earned runs since July 29th. Elite. |
3 | Chris Sale | Braves | More below. |
4 (5) | Paul Skenes | Pirates | 5 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks, ERA at 2.13. Please wrap this guy up in 700 layers of bubble wrap and styrofoam peanuts and have Livvy feed him Primantis and Heinz ketchup through a rubber straw until Spring Training. |
5 (6) | Jack Flaherty | Dodgers | 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks. E.R.A. at 3.01. Just keeps chugging along piecing together that work experience for his Top 10 resume. At the time of writing, he was mowing down the Guardians through 5. |
6 (9) | George Kirby | Mariners | A nice bounce back at OAK. 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 9 Ks. Guess how many walks. I’ll give you a hint. The number is less than one. |
7 (10) | Logan Gilbert | Mariners | 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks, ERA at 3.19. He was going to be the lede this week no matter what…and the ‘what’ turned out to be this janky start. The strikeouts are a nice cushion for the 4 ER, though. He’s #3 on the SP Player Rater. |
8 (12) | Gerrit Cole | Yankees | 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks, ERA at 3.65. Choo choo! All aboard the Cole train! |
9 (12) | Shota Imanaga | Cubs | More below. |
10 (8) | Blake Snell | Giants | Oh no, he’s hurt! Oh, he isn’t? No! He’s on the load management list! Wait, he isn’t even under contract next year. Do they need to shut him down to save him for the playoffs? Guy…the Giants are 8 games out of a playoff spot. Ride this pony right to free agency (2026). |
11 (4) | Dylan Cease | Padres | Two losses in his last four starts and the strikeout totals are starting to dip. He’s still great, but with those ER and BBs, he’s not going to challenge anyone for the top spot anytime soon. |
12 (11) | Cole Ragans | Royals | Like Kirby above him, Ragans had a great bounce back from a rough previous start. 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 Ks. |
13 | Pablo Lopez | Twins | 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 9 Ks, 4.05 ERA. He gave up earned runs for the first time in three starts. Solid. |
14 | Michael King | Padres | 6.0 IP, 6 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. Are we ready to crown this King a top 10 SP for 2025 yet? Top 15? |
15 | Corbin Burnes | Orioles | 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks, ERA at 3.19. If you fail to strike out a half dozen CWS hitters, does that negate the win? |
16 | Luis Castillo | Mariners | He left his start early yesterday because of a tight hamstring. MRI is scheduled for today. |
17 (18) | Framber Valdez | Astros | 7.0 IP, 2 hits, 3 BB, 7 K. The slow thaw of Framber is now complete. First half? 3.66 ERA, .260 BAA, .368 SLG. The second half? 1.83 ERA, .141 BAA, .216 SLG. |
18 (17) | Tyler Glasnow | Dodgers | Threw a bullpen (25 pitches) on Saturday. He’s not due back until September 15th, but one setback could mean he ‘takes it slowly’ so he doesn’t hurt himself before a deep playoff run. |
19 | Bailey Ober | Twins | 11th on the Player Rater. |
20 (21) | Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks, ERA at 3.75. The 3 Ks aren’t great but he’s sneaking back up towards the Top 20. |
21 (26) | Reynaldo Lopez | Braves | 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 11 Ks, ERA at 2.04. We’ve waited all year for this guy to fall apart and … well, it’s not happening. |
22 (28) | Bryce Miller | Mariners | 6.0 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K. Ok, maybe I’m getting caught up in the SEA excitement here. But come on. Ratios? Do you want ratios? Look up at the first 15 paragraphs! Oh, and the Player Rater has him at #10. |
23 (25) | Ranger Suarez | Phillies | 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks, ERA at 2.90. Another one who has avoided the regression fairies and lands in the Top 20 on the Player Rater (19). |
24 (22) | Zach Eflin | Rays | Looked a lot more ordinary against TB than he usually is, but it wasn’t a bad start. |
25 (20) | Aaron Nola | Phillies | Gave up more than two ERs in a start for the first time in four GS. A 5 spot drop is probably too much but is more about the success of the guys around him than anything else. |
26 | Logan Webb | Giants | 10 hits allowed (6 IP) but still managed to pick up a win despite only having 3 strikeouts. |
27 | Zac Gallen | Diamondbacks | 6 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 4 BB, 8 Ks, ERA at 3.69. No no-hitter here, just a solid start! |
28 (38) | Seth Lugo | Royals | 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks, ERA at 3.05. Magic Lugo keeps spinning his way out of the inevitable regression. He’s like a costumed ninja flitting back and forth among the regression fairies. |
29 | Jose Berrios | Blue Jays | His 15th win on the season and just two earned runs in his last 12 IP means no Blues for this Jay. |
30 (31) | Max Fried | Braves | 7.0 IP, 5 hits, 0 ER, BB, 8 K. Braves one game out of wild card. Do you want your favorite team to face these guys in a best-of-three knockout? |
31 | Ronel Blanco | Astros | More below. |
32 (23) | Tanner Houck | Red Sox | 4 ERs in 5 IPs last week and was told he’s getting his next start pushed back to give him extra rest. The second half has not been kind to Houck, and his career high in IP (169 and counting) may be the culprit. |
33 | Sonny Gray | Cardinals | 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks, ERA at 3.84. He really doesn’t like getting pushed out of the Top 25. |
34 | Tanner Bibee | Guardians | 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks, ERA at 3.56. I guess all it took was for me to yell fire in the Cleveland kitchen. Both Bibee and Williams had good starts last week. |
35 | Luis Gil | Yankees | 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 Ks. This was a big moment of reassurance after being shelved for a couple of weeks. |
36 | Bryan Woo | Mariners | 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 hits, zero walks, 6 Ks, ERA at 2.36. One of the Fantastic Five mentioned above. |
37 (39) | Kevin Gausman | Blue Jays | He’s not the ace that we expected when we drafted him in March, but his second half has been much better than his first. |
38 (45) | Christopher Sanchez | Phillies | 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 Ks. SP38 may be a bit too aggressive, but Sanchez keeps San-chugging along. |
39 (32) | Justin Steele | Cubs | Scratched from his start with elbow soreness. Shut him down and put some rubber and plastic in there! Justin time. Edit: 15-day IL until September 20. |
40 | Grayson Rodriguez | Orioles | He threw a bullpen session last week but is still a couple of weeks away from returning. Monitor for setbacks or any news. |
41 (37) | Spencer Schwellenbach | Braves | I told a few people last week that I didn’t trust Schwellenbach in his next two starts against PHI and TOR. The Phillies offense is great and the Jays have been sneaky good for the past 4-5 weeks too. I don’t know if I’m starting him against LAD or at CIN next week either. |
42 (46) | Jared Jones | Pirates | 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks, ERA at 3.91. Grey said that he was out on Mr. Jones ROS. I am not. But I’ve also said that I tend to hold on to my players for far too long because it’s tough to reset a keeper league mentality that’s been present for 30+ years. |
43 | Nick Pivetta | Red Sox | His last two were against DET and CWS but I’ll still take the 12 Ks in 12 IP. |
44 (49) | Nathan Eovaldi | Rangers | 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks, ERA at 3.55. I’m not sure what else to say other than he’s been good and he’s not hurt again…yet. |
45 (50) | Bowden Francis | Blue Jays | 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 hits, zero walks, 6 Ks, ERA at 3.72. I started him in my deep 12-team mixed league because you start pretty much everyone in that one (big rosters). I also told a few people I’d avoid the Phillies if I could. Is this kind of line against a powerhouse lineup another step toward fantasy greatness? Let’s not get too carried away. But Grey mentioned it in his comment section last week. Francis has gone from intriguing, to ‘good for streaming’, to a must-start in a little over a month and a half. |
46 (44) | Robbie Ray | Giants | He threw his second simulated game and should be ready to go on September 15th. He may need a minor league game to shake off some rust this week. |
47 | Spencer Arrighetti | Astros | More below. |
48 (42) | Justin Verlander | Astros | 4.2 IP, 5 ER, ERA at 4.52. Oh JV. It’s starting to feel like JV stands for “Just Vacation”…to Florida to find a condo for your retirement. Or something like that. Edit: We can add another 3 IP, 8 ER, 0 K to this one this morning too. |
49 (41) | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | He’s out for at least another week with a toe ouchie. Serious question: How many adult men with a big toe injury (a) need it to be scanned and (b) need to wear a walking boot for it? |
50 (48) | Garrett Crochet | White Sox | More below. |
51 | Sean Manaea | Mets | 6.2 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 9 K. The cracks in Manaea’s armor are much longer and more dangerous than some others, but he’s still giving us a lot of strikeouts and some solid outings. TOR next seems Ok, but be careful. The Jays have been much more dangerous for the last month than they were in the first half. |
52 (57) | Carlos Rodon | Yankees | 6 IP, 1 ER, 1 hit, 2 BBs, 11 Ks, ERA at 4.19. Rodon made the Rangers’ offense look Rodonculous. He’s slated for two starts this week too. |
53 (58) | Hunter Brown | Astros | 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks, ERA at 3.41. He’s going to have a ton of helium again in the 2025 draft season, isn’t he? |
54 | Shane Baz | Rays | Lost a tough one at home to Dean Kremer and BAL. Three straight starts with fewer than 3 ER in each…but he’s at PHI this week. |
55 (56) | Yusei Kikuchi | Astros | Smacked around for 4 ER on 6 H against ARI last week but he’s still racking up the strikeouts. This was his worst start for the Astros (7 GS). |
56 (54) | Mitch Keller | Pirates | 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 Ks. And somehow he didn’t get the W against WSH. |
57 (80) | Ryne Nelson | Arizona | More below. This much of a boost may be an overcorrection after seeing how Houstn treated him last night, but in reality, it’s only an 8-spot jump from two weeks ago. |
58 (55) | Nestor Cortes | Yankees | 4.1 IP and a win? With 3 Ks? Oh, Nasty Nestor. |
59 (63) | Tobias Myers | Brewers | A huge 11-strikeout game on Saturday moves him up again. |
60 (67) | Joe Musgrove | Padres | 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks, ERA at 4.09. Yep. I think I said it last week, and I put him in the dumper section as a caveat for tough matchups, but it looks like Joe is back to being a Mus-Start. Early morning drive to work edit! Musgrove to a Giant stomping yesterday. 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Ks. Maybe he’s more of a Mus-stream-in-good-matchups. |
61 (59) | Brady Singer | Royals | Sing me a song…about how you gave up 5 H, 2 ER, and 2 BBs and lost the game. Brady Singer: Featuring a terrible KC offense. |
62 (60) | Colin Rea | Brewers | True story alert! I started watching Cobra Kai with my eldest son and forgot that one character shared a nickname with this guy. With back-to-back 4 inning starts, I guess it could be for the same reason. Poop emoji. |
63 (62) | Brayan Bello | Red Sox | The good news is he’s flip-flopped the bad and good starts over his last four. And today’s start follows a bad one. The bad news? It’s against BAL. |
64 (52) | Gavin Stone | Dodgers | Dammit. Out for at least the next two weeks with shoulder inflammation. Talk about West Coast fires. Smh. |
65 (66) | Gavin Williams | Guardians | See Tanner Bibee above. Morning edit! Saturday was a lot less encouraging than his previous start was. 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 0 Ks. Cut the kid some slack though. CLE was at LAD. |
66 (65) | Michael Wacha | Royals | 7 shutout innings with 7 Ks for his 12th win? Just like the Beastie Boys said, “So Wacha Wacha Want?” |
67 (71) | Luis Severino | Mets | 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks, ERA at 3.84. This one calls for a Grey quote: “At home, he is Cy Severino and in away games, he’s Sever-him-from-my-team-rino.” Pssst…he’s in PHI this week! |
68 (78) | Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks, ERA at 5.67. Buehler Buehler Buehler? Yep! He showed up! |
69 (77) | Kutter Crawford | Red Sox | 6 IP, 2 ER, 1 hit, 2 walks, 8 Ks, ERA at 4.08. Don’t look now, but that’s 4 strong outings in a row for the CrawDaddy. I guess you could look to stream him in a pinch. His next two starts are supposed to be at home against BAL and at NYY though, so… |
70 (61) | Hunter Greene | Reds | Scheduled to throw two two-inning (stutter!) bullpens this week. He should be ready to return on September 17th. |
71 (81) | Matthew Boyd | Guardians | 6.0 IP, 3 hits, ER, 6 K. Sonofabench! Wait, you started him last week? At LAD? Gorilla pants grapes. This is what Robbie Ray was supposed to be in the second half. |
72 | Ryan Pepiot | Rays | Five scoreless innings against BAL before giving up an ER (Mullins HR) was enough to get him a win on Friday. 2025 sleeper alert. |
73 (74) | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Dodgers | Yoshi is BACK! Starting tomorrow at home vs CHC. Hopefully, this is his last week out of the Top 50! |
74 (70) | Nick Lodolo | Reds | He’ll resume a throwing program and rejoin the Reds this week. Activation is Sept. 29 at the earliest. |
75 (73) | Eduardo Rodriguez | Diamondbacks | 4 IP, 3 ER, ERA at 5.33. That year and a half rest must not have included shoulder strengthening exercises. |
76 (83) | Chris Bassitt | Blue Jays | 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 12 baserunners, 7 Ks, ERA at 4.30. Bassitt is handing out freebies like he’s Oprah but still managing to provide strikeouts and less than 4 ER? At this point of the year, we’ll take it. |
77 (64) | Brandon Pfaadt | Diamondbacks | He’s been an earned run dispenser and his next two are against MLW and at COL. Woof. |
78 (85) | Andrew Heaney | Rangers | 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 8 Ks, ERA at 3.81. The tightrope may be made of dental floss, but I’m shimmying across it and haven’t plummeted to my roto-death just yet. His next start is at SEA. 9.8 HR/FB% in that park? Yep, I’d stream him. |
79 (68) | Jeffrey Springs | Rays | More below. |
80 (69) | Erick Fedde | Cardinals | Fedde lost again on Friday night and is now 1-6 as a Cardinal. Ouch. |
81 (75) | Taj Bradley | Rays | 7 IP, 4 ER, 7 baserunners, 10 Ks, ERA at 4.40. The strikeouts are nice. Ya, that’s about it. |
82 (76) | Albert Suarez | Orioles | 4.1 IP, 6 ER, ERA at 3.49. When Albert gives up a fat one to Nicky effing Lopez…well, they say that ain’t good, kids. |
83 (79) | JP Sears | Athletics | Another one who posts 1 ER starts in every other game. The pattern is nice since he got smoked by SEA last week. But I don’t know if I’m banking on that pattern to continue at HOU this week. |
84 (81) | MacKenzie Gore | Nationals | 6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 Ks, ERA at 4.32. Well, that’s two in a row now and I should probably move him up again. Just so I can move him back down. FWIW he starts twice at home this week vs ATL and MIA. |
85 (90) | Cody Bradford | Rangers | 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks, ERA at 3.05. Grey mentioned he hopes Bradford sneaks through as a sleeper for next season. I’m hoping for the same thing. |
86 (92) | Clarke Schmidt | Yankees | He needed 75 pitches to get through 4.2 innings in his first start back from the IL on Friday, but 4 H, 0 ER, and a couple of Ks was a pretty solid return. |
87 (88) | Osvaldo Bido | Athletics | 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks, ERA at 3.52. This wasn’t as bad as it looked. He got blasted by the Raleigh dumper. |
88 (100) | Jacob deGrom | Rangers | Last week’s fourth rehab start was his longest and, arguably, his most successful. He got through 4 innings on a pitch count ceiling of 60. He managed to get there on just 49 pitches. Activation this week (Friday) is a real possibility. |
89 (86) | Charlie Morton | Braves | He’s allowed more than 2 ER just once in his last 5 starts. Gets CIN at home this week. |
90 (96) | David Peterson | Mets | 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 11 Ks, ERA at 2.75. Yep. I should have added this guy a few weeks ago for sure. This start solidifies it. |
91 (NR) | Reid Detmers | Angels | 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks, ERA at 5.87. I started him in my AL-only league for his double dip this week and oh boy did the Roto-gods reward me for flashing my gorilla grapes on that one. Boom! |
92 (82) | Max Scherzer | Rangers | Eligible to return on Sept. 13th and he looks like a man possessed. 8 Ks in 4 IP on Saturday at AAA rehab start. |
93 | Merrill Kelly | Diamondbacks | 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 hits, zero walks, 8 Ks, ERA at 4.08. It was either add him this week or keep Edward Cabrera. So, which headache pounds the skull less? |
94 | Caden Dana | Angels | Wrote him up in the jumpers last week. |
95 (NR) | Yu Darvish | Padres | 2 2/3 IP, 3 ER, ERA at 3.51 as he was activated from the IL. At least he’s back? Starts tomorrow at SEA and I can see streaming him. |
96 (95) | Yariel Rodriguez | Blue Jays | He nearly slipped off the list but yesterday’s pitching duel with Chris Sale keeps him here for now. |
97 | David Festa | Twins | 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks, ERA at 4.75. Grey did mention that he might get shut down soon (Festa, not Grey) and that’s a legitimate concern with these younger arms as we move through each week of September. |
98 (87) | Jake Irvin | Nationals | 5 IP, 6 ER, ERA at 4.28. Got smoked by PIT and CHC in his last two starts. Uh, that’s not good kids. |
99 (NR) | Jameson Taillon | Cubs | 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks, ERA at 3.66. Taking him off the list was probably less of a biff than the Ryne Nelson oopsie, but still. P.S. I blame the 5-hour car ride for any mistakes last weekend! |
100 (NR) | Cade Povich | Orioles | More below. |
BIGGEST JUMPERS: Who’s got hops? These are some of the biggest jumpers in value this week.
Chris Sale – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 hits, zero walks, 9 Ks in his start last week. Yesterday’s game was a pitching duel against Yariel Rodriguez (because that’s what we expected to see written today) with another 6 scoreless innings and even fewer hits than he allowed in his Colorado start. 2 hits and 0 ER with 1 BB and 7 Ks is about as solid as it gets. I said it a few weeks ago, but I wouldn’t argue with someone who said that the top pitcher in baseball isn’t just a two-horse race (between Skubal and Wheeler). My note from this week – It makes me feel better about ranking him as #3…or 1 C. See? There is a C!
Shota Imanaga – Shout Out to Shota and his no-hitter…kind of. Grey mentioned this on Thursday and I agree. I’m all for guys getting credit for a no-hitter … if they go 9 innings and finish off the game. Shota’s 7 innings of shutout ball with no hits was just that. Well not JUST that, but I still don’t think we need to give guys credit for a no-hitter if there’s more than one guy who pitched during the game. Was this start awesome? Yes. Absolutely. Was it a no-hitter? No. It was 7 shutout innings of no-hit ball with two relievers who finished the game out for him with strong shutout innings. I suppose it’s easier to just type “no-hitter” though.
Ryne Nelson – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks, ERA at 4.15. Oh, man. I flubbed this one big time last week. As I said above, though, I blame the 5-hour drive back from my kid’s baseball tournament for that mind-mush moment. I could’ve sworn I read in multiple places that Nelson was going to be sacrificed for the worst Montgomery since Homer’s boss at the nuclear power plant. Apologies to the Nelson truthers who I offended last week. This guy is a beast and is NOT losing his rotation spot. The 2.01 BB/9 is filthy (13th overall) and he looks locked in. Now all we have to watch is how Montgomery burns in that long relief role. (Nailed it!)
Jeffrey Springs – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks, ERA at 3.27. The Fresh Prince’s butler has gone 5+ innings in five of his last six starts. I thought teams managed the innings of their less-than-reliable arms every Fall. For some reason, over the last few games, this guy has been Autumn-atic. Boom. Late-night edit: Disregard all of that. Springs was placed on the IL with elbow fatigue yesterday. See the “check the player news” note I wrote above the list today.
Cade Povich – Wtf. Cade Povich threw 7.1 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BBs, and 10 Ks last week. Povich looking to run a paternity test to see if his DNA matches Mike Mussina or Jim Palmer after this one. Then again, I guess these days everyone is the White Sox’s daddy. Nothing to see here, but I wanted to add him in the write-up just in case you want to stream him at Fenway this week. I nearly added Alex Cobb instead but he ended up with a blister so that made the decision much easier. And I wasn’t opening another can of Patrick Corbin after this weekend. Plus, Povich has two starts this week (at BOS and at NYY so tread carefully).
BIGGEST DUMPERS: With apologies to Cal Raleigh, these are some of the biggest dumpers (in value, not pants size).
Garrett Crochet – If you’re still hoping to get wins from him, I’ve got some bad news. But I did wonder if the optimistic side of all of this ‘load management’ nonsense is best suited for the fantasy managers who are approaching inning limits in their leagues. I’d love to roster a guy who pitches 3.1 innings and records 9 strikeouts if I’m in that situation. I guess that’s the silver lining in a very stormy White Sox season.
Spencer Arrighetti – 2/3 IP, 9 ER, ERA at 5.26. The Guardians said, “arrivederci” to Arrighetti before he could escape the bottom of the first. For what it’s worth I told someone to sit him for this matchup if they could. Pitching at Cleveland against that lineup has been a scary step to take lately. That said, I’d still start Arrighetti in good matchups, and his next two are vs OAK and at LAA.
Ronel Blanco – This is a great example of what I wrote just before the list. Last week, it sounded like Blanco was headed to the bullpen. He did come in as a reliever in this weekend’s ARI series and recorded 5 Ks in his 6 outs over 2 IP. Then, on Saturday, Houston announced that Blanco would return to the rotation next week and they’d be moving to a 6-man rotation the rest of the way. Either way, it sounds like Blanco is on an innings watch. He’s getting his toes wet for playoff bullpen work so if you’re hoping for another complete-game no-hitter, I’d bet against it. Will he get enough innings in for his final starts to help those of you in quality start leagues? It sounds like the evidence points to a “No” there too.
Ben Lively – 4 IP, 4 ER, ERA at 4.07. It’s ironic that a guy named Lively has been dead for a month. I’d drop him in TGFBI if there were better options…and if I wasn’t still reeling from drafting the worst infield of all time.
WHEE! – The following players zoomed on to the list this week!
Merrill Kelly
Yu Darvish
Reid Detmers
Jameson Taillon – I should have left him alone last week.
Cade Povich
OOF! – The following players dropped off the list this week!
Edward Cabrera – The torture is over. For now. Early morning edit: Of course it’s not. Threw 7 IP, 3H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6Ks…against the Phillies. Because of course he did. I’m reserving the right to use the Jim Carrey crazy gif from Liar Liar for next week.
Ben Lively – This could have happened a while ago, but even with 11 wins, it was time.
Jose Soriano – It was either him or Albert Suarez getting the axe this week.
Bobby Miller – Fool me thrice…
Jack Leiter – I still like him but he’s too volatile ROS.
That’s all for this week! I hope you enjoyed it! Next week, I’ll post the Top 100 Starting Pitchers with some write-ups on some of the arms that I think need a bit more attention than others or cherry-picking names to highlight as we progress through the last couple of months of the season.
Drop some comments in the chat if you’re feeling extra fired up about some of the names I do (or don’t) have here. Have a great week!
Follow me @marmosdad on Twitter/X and Bluesky @marmosdad.bsky.social
Hey MarmosDad — always enjoy your insights. And your ledes!
Just re-read all your comments about Ben Lively. But, but, but… he’s pitching against the White Sox tonight!! Still too ballsy?
(full disclosure – I already picked up Arighetti for tonight)
Thanks mudhen.
I think anyone vs CWS is fine to gamble on, and it’s not like Lively is the worst arm out there. I think part of my disdain stems from him disappointing me in my Roto-leagues and I don’t trust him as much as I used to trust him. If you can roll him out in a daily moves league I’d still consider it for sure.
Arrighetti or bust!!! Hahaha.
I think I’m leaning in on Lively, especially since he looks to be a 2-starter this week (TBR on Sunday). Plus I’m really reluctant to start Houck against the Yankees this week, so he’s a drop. H2H points league.
Arrighetti+Lively could either clinch my week and a trip to the finals, or else blow me up completely!!
It’s funny that you mentioned Houck. I made the same decision this week based on the same thought process when I dropped him in Perts.
He’s been fading for a while. Time to find a Wacha or two. Ha.
I don’t have an authentic Wacha, but I’ve had me a Lugo since draft day and I’ve been pretty happy with that. But yeah, at this point I need to keep hunting for more of Grey’s Wacha’s.
Exactly. I kept waiting for Lugo to fall apart but it doesn’t look like it’s happening.
Brady Singer was another “Wacha”. Solid and underwhelming but gets it done and won’t get shut down.
I’d put Manaea and Kikuchi in that group too. I feel silly saying it but probably Matt Boyd as well.
Just back from the Jays-Mets game and yes, Manaea looked like a Wacha. Thought that Francis was going to run the no-hitter (again, almost) but it was not to be. But at least Schneider gave him the chance.
Sure, I would go with Matt Boyd as a Wacha. Kikuchi burned me a little this year but now that he has a new home and people to actually help him, I’d agree there too. And I would put Eflin in there as well, same reason.
So last night Arrighetti was my 2nd best pitcher, out of 5. Lugo was of course #1, dominating the Yankees and surpassing my fears and expectations. I will be so pissed next year when someone takes him way too early. The others were ReyLo (IL & gone, should have seen that coming), Lively (DTD, bad luck), and Kirby, who clocked in at zero points. Huge disappointment for the guy who I drafted as my SP#1.
I should win this week and then be in total disarray for the finals…
That would’ve been a great game to be at. Well, at least until the 9th inning and the Chad Green meltdown. Ugh.
I’m taking the boys and my dad to the final game against Miami on the 29th. They pretty excited.
It’s play the hot hand season now more than ever for sure. Hoping guys don’t get hurt and/or shut down or pulled early is big too.
I hope you can cruise into the playoffs and reel off some good starts with your squad. I got crushed in my home leagues this year. I should post some of my draft rounds or starting rosters from the auction leagues to show how poorly mine did in the spring. It was ugly.
Good luck!
That will be fun, three generations at the ballpark. I’m not suggesting that you set a bad example for your kids or anything, but I will be okay if you boo John Schneider.
I am in the semi’s this week in my points league, and my opponent is self-destructing thanks to his choice of pitchers (Rea, Bradford). It’s looking more and more like I will be facing my son in the finals — and my pitching match-ups are ugly next week. But anything can happen!
All the best to you!
They’re excited for sure. And the older one won’t be shy hollering at Bo Bichette that’s for sure.
He said the only thing he wants to see is one inning from Jordan Romano so we’ll see if that’s anywhere near possible.
Hopefully we get a good game.
The good news is the hot dogs and sausages outside will be good no matter what. Haha.
Good luck in the finals if you get there. Don’t be afraid to cut loose the dead weight for Wachas or schmotatoes.
Carpe diem! (Or something like that).
Ha
We’re running out of room here! Thanks for the advice, and good luck to you too!
I’ll probably have new questions on Monday…
Not sure if Arrighetti is a two step v Oak, @ Angels. Heard the Astros were considering going to a six man rotation. Need a 5th starter in Round 1 to get myself into the next and money round. The other two options are Ober v Cincy and Singer @ Yanks @ Pitts. Assuming Arrighetti is a two start, I’m going there but if he’s not who you got in a Points scoring format?
On another note in a completely different league H2H. Kumar Rocker has been penciled in to start Thursday @ Seattle. Taking a chance?
Assuming it’s redraft, I’d see who the corresponding drop is and make the move. If your staff is strong enough to absorb a rotten start, it’s even more easy to stomach. He’s been pretty great in the minors this year.
I assume he’s already rostered in keeper leagues, but if you’re already streaming marginal arms I don’t see why someone wouldn’t take a shot on the kid. Seattle isn’t exactly a bandbox park either. I could see it!
Hey Chucky,
Ya this time of year is really rough to navigate. I remember Streamonator being off with projected starts a few years ago for the same reason. News changes so often that you kind of have to go with what you know in the moment, roll the dice if you’re in a weekly moves league and hope for the best.
I think I you’re bang on going Arrighetti if you can make the daily move or wait until we know for sure. Otherwise, I’d roll Ober because he’s been solid and that start isn’t in Cincy.
Totally get the two start temptation with Singer, and he qualifies as a “Wacha” kind of SP (if you read Grey this morning), so he should get both starts.
But at NYY could really mess with the ratios. I’d steer clear if I could.
Thanks for the read and question.
Need a fifth starter for semis:
Imanaga vs. Dodgers
Boyd vs. ChiSox
Festa vs. Angels and Reds
Heart telling me not to sit my aces even against a top offense. Head wondering if I should target a AAA offense w/ Boyd or grab the extra innings from Festa.
Ya that’s a tough call for sure.
Imanaga is a good start but the Dodgers are dangerous and you don’t want that start to blow up your ratios.
Boyd vs CWS should be a cake walk.
Festa double dip gives you the chance of twice the Ks and to double up on Ws.
Because it’s this late in the season I’d be worried Festa doesn’t get both starts. Teams have been pushing some guys back to give them extra rest.
I know this doesn’t help with an answer but if you have a strong enough staff (with the rest of your starters), I’d go with Imanaga. If he gets roughed up at least it doesn’t sink your ERA and WHIP.
If it’s not as strong, start Boyd for the guaranteed stats…unless something goes haywire he should be able to pull double digit strikeouts and a W.
Hope that helps. Thanks for the read and the questions.
Great as always! Thanks for this insight!!
2. I am of course getting conservative with only 132 innings left. However, I did read that the average start is 5 and 1/3 innings and there is 3 weeks left. Thus, I do have 8.3 starts/week.
3. I have put Joe Musgrove on ice for now. His next start is on the road vs SF.
4. I also have put Sean Manaea on ice for now. His next start is against TOR. Thoughts?
5. I also put Boydon Francis on the bench. His next start is against the Mets. Thoughts?
6. I have decided to skip Arrighetti start even it is against OAK.
7. Any thoughts on picking up Andrew Heaney, Cade Povich or Festa ?
Heaney has a next step at Seattle.
Povich is at Detroit
Festa start is home vs Cinn.
Looking forward to your insights!
Thanks as always!!
Martin!
1/2. Yep, that Math checks out. I’m in a similar situation in the Perts league too. Have to be careful who I start and sit.
3. Agreed. I thought he was a must start but the start yesterday shut that down pretty fast.
4. Sit.
5. I could see it either way but I’d rather he be starting at home.
6. That’s fine. If he can’t bounce back there, it may be time to stream him out in redraft leagues.
7. I’d try Heaney there but obviously any of those three could get roughed up a bit.
Hopefully not!
No problem.
Any interest in Freddy @ AZ this weekend? Looks like a complete stayaway.
Agreed. I would stay away too. Believe it or not, the Streamonator likes it ($10.8).
If you have other options I’d put them ahead of this one though.