Hey Yoan! There he is! Moncada’s bat is officially awake! Through his first 49 ABs Moncada had 1 HR, 0 SB and a .604 OPS. Since then? 42 ABs, 5 HR, 4 SB and a 1.295 OPS. Here’s my worry — will Moncada continue to be streaky and see a 700 point swing in his OPS every few weeks? Or did he just get off to a slow start?

Rising:

Didi Gregorius: I have to keep mentioning my man Didi until his performance tells me not to. Didi is currently the highest scorer on ESPN’s player rater and shows no sign of slowing down. When the Yankees acquired Didi as their Jeter replacement I was a fan of Didi from a fielding perspective and saw him as a proper bridge to a Yankee shortstop prospect (at the time Jorge Mateo.) Now, Didi should be serving as an example to all underperforming players on how to completely transform your career. He’s gone from an after-thought, defense first placeholder to the most valuable player on the most important franchise in baseball.

Falling:

Corey Seager: On the flip side, Corey Seager has struggled out of the gate. Before Opening Day this year you could ask anyone who follows baseball which shortstop they’d rather have on their team (fantasy or real) and the answer would have easily been Seager. Now you have some hesitation, huh?

Gregory Polanco: Two weeks ago Polanco found himself under the “rising” column of this series. Way back then I said, “Polanco’s .239 batting average isn’t fantastic.” Since that time, I’m now going to say “His .213 batting average isn’t acceptable.” He’s only scored 4 runs 1 HR and 1 RBI in that time. However, two weeks ago I also said “Polanco’s career batting average the past three years ranged from .251 to .258.” I still thinks he ends up there, but if not, chalk this up to yet another frustrating year for Polanco owners.

Guys I’m Cyclopsing:

Anthony Rizzo: Going into 2018 Rizzo was the most safely predictable player. His HR totals the past four years have been: 32, 31, 32, 32. His OPS had almost an equally small range: .913, .899, .928, .899. So far through 63 ABs he has 1 HR and a .510 OPS. Again in the last four years, his AB/HR has been 16.4, 18.9, 18.2 and 17.9. This year it’s 63 AB/HR obviously. Something isn’t right. Maybe Rizzo is nursing an injury and trying to be a good christian soldier and play through it? His hard hit percentage is down 5% from his career number. His walk rate is way down, but his strikeout rate isn’t too out of line with his career numbers. His 79% contact rate is only 1 percentage lower than his career. But here’s what I think is going on: that dreaded BABIP is rearing it’s ugly head. .204 this year compared to his career .285 line. Bad luck? Maybe. Maybe Rizzo just needs to summon Jobu to wake up his bats. Could be a good chance to buy low on Rizzo.

Tim Anderson: In the land of SAGNOF, the man with the the highest ADP is king. Of the top six stolen base leaders Anderson’s 228.6 ADP is the highest. In many ten team leagues he even probably went undrafted. It has already been well-documented that Tim Anderson went into this season saying he wanted to steal more bases. But if you couldn’t tell, I live by the Ruff Ryder Anthem motto of “talk is cheap mutha—–.” But Anderson has backed it up with 8 stolen bases. Maybe I should’ve taken that song and Tim Anderson more seriously. “Oh you think it’s funny | then you don’t know me, money.”

Mitch Haniger: Of the top 10 outfielders on the ESPN Player Rater, only one man had an ADP over 70. Only one man had an ADP over 100. Only one man had an ADP over 200. Only one man — okay you get the idea — his ADP was 229. Haniger is going to show up on a lot of league winning rosters this year — if he can stay healthy. Haniger has a fantastic 41.8% hard hit rate and a 47.8% FB rate. Among outfielders, Haniger is in elite company with his 9 HRs. Only player above him? Mike Trout with 10. The three players tied with 8 under him? Mookie Betts, Charlie Blackmon and Bryce Harper. If Haniger keeps this up (and I think he can and will) he’ll be a top-25 pick in 2019.

GREEN: Rising BLUE: New Additions RED: Falling

Top 100 Hitters:

RANK NAME TEAM POSITION LAST WEEK
1 Mike Trout LAA OF 1
2 Jose Altuve HOU 2B 2
3 Bryce Harper WAS OF 3
4 Mookie Betts BOS OF 4
5 Trea Turner WAS SS 5
6 Nolan Arenado COL 3B 6
7 Charlie Blackmon COL OF 7
8 Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1B 8
9 Carlos Correa HOU SS 9
10 Kris Bryant CHC 3B 10
11 Manny Machado BAL 3B 11
12 Aaron Judge NYY OF 12
13 Giancarlo Stanton NYY OF 13
14 Francisco Lindor CLE SS 14
15 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 15
16 Joey Votto CIN 1B 16
17 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 17
18 J.D. Martinez BOS OF 18
19 Jose Ramirez CLE 2B/3B 19
20 George Springer HOU OF 20
21 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B/OF 21
22 Brian Dozier MIN 2B 22
23 Jose Abreu CHW 1B 23
24 Dee Gordon SEA 2B 24
25 Gary Sanchez NYY C 25
26 Christian Yelich MIL OF 27
27 Justin Upton ARI OF 28
28 Alex Bregman HOU SS/3B 29
29 Andrew Benintendi BOS OF 31
30 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B/OF 32
31 Starling Marte PIT OF 35
32 Marcell Ozuna STL OF 33
33 Buster Posey SF C/1B 34
34 Robinson Cano SEA 2B 36
35 Wil Myers SD 1B/OF 37
36 Edwin Encarnacion CLE 1B 38
37 Khris Davis OAK OF 39
38 Corey Seager LAD SS 26
39 Didi Gregorious NYY SS 49
40 Yoenis Cespedes NYM OF 40
41 Eric Hosmer SD 1B 41
42 Nelson Cruz SEA DH 42
43 Tommy Pham STL OF 43
44 A.J. Pollock ARI OF 44
45 DJ LeMahieu COL 2B 47
46 Jean Segura SEA SS 48
47 Ozzie Albies ATL 2B 54
48 Lorenzo Cain MIL OF 50
49 Xander Bogaerts BOS SS NR
50 Nicholas Castellanos DET 3B/OF 51
51 Gregory Polanco PIT OF 45
52 Whit Merrifield KC 2B 53
53 Andrew McCutchen SF OF 55
54 Ender Inciarte ATL OF 56
55 Ronald Acuna ATL OF NR
56 Mike Moustakas KC 3B 57
57 Javier Baez CHC SS/2B 66
58 Trevor Story COL SS 58
59 Travis Shaw MIL 3B 59
60 Willson Contreras CHC C 46
61 Kyle Seager SEA 3B 60
62 Rafael Devers BOS 3B 63
63 Miguel Sano MIN 3B 52
64 Mitch Haniger SEA OF 92
65 Yasiel Puig LAD OF 64
66 Adam Jones BAL OF 65
67 Matt Olson OAK 1B 68
68 Brett Gardner NYY OF 69
69 Carlos Santana CLE 1B 62
70 Jose Martinez STL 1B 71
71 Joey Gallo TEX 3B/1B 72
72 Nomar Mazara TEX OF 80
73 Billy Hamilton CIN OF 70
74 Domingo Santana MIL OF 61
75 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 73
76 Justin Smoak TOR 1B 74
77 Hanley Ramirez BOS DH 79
78 Yoan Moncada CHW 2B 90
79 Ian Desmond COL 1B/OF 67
80 Ryan Braun MIL OF 75
81 Eugenio Suarez CIN 3B NR
82 Kyle Schwarber CHC OF 88
83 Chris Taylor LAD 2B/OF 82
84 J.T. Realmuto MIA C 87
85 Matt Chapman OAK 3B 83
86 Eduardo Nunez BOS 2B/3B/OF 76
87 Josh Bell PIT 1B 84
88 Jay Bruce NYM OF 85
89 Salvador Perez KC C NR
90 Yadier Molina STL C 86
91 Marwin Gonzalez HOU SS/1B/2B/OF 89
92 Jed Lowrie OAK 2B 91
93 Eddie Rosario MIN OF 81
94 Matt Carpenter STL 1B 78
95 Tim Anderson CWS SS 93
96 Dansby Swanson ATL SS 94
97 David Peralta ARI OF NR
98 Josh Reddick HOU OF 96
99 Cesar Hernandez PHI 2B 97
100 Corey Dickerson PIT OF 100

 

 

Yell at me in the comments about our differing opinions!

  1. Need SAGNOF says:
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    I can’t see how Nunez stays in the top 100, he isn’t hitting and worse isn’t running – 90% if his value is from steals and he has 1

    • Slappy Jack says:
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      @Need SAGNOF: I hate being the guy who says it’s still April but .. yeah there is reason for concern but seems foolish to bail right this moment

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Need SAGNOF: I don’t want to give up on Nunez just yet–I think his positional eligibility and history of speed keeps him up there for me — for now!

  2. prestige says:
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    Hosmer and his 4 RBI’s not dropping? Ozuna and Lindor have been terrible..

    • Slappy Jack says:
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      @prestige: I get you with Hosmer, not so much Ozuna and Lindor

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @prestige: Hosmer has had too long of a productive career for me to drop him entirely. That being said he will need to step it up. I just don’t want to be overly reactive or week to week this list will be changing immensely.

  3. Alex says:
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    I just dropped Jose Martinez for Mancini. I’m hoping Mancini can get going. JoMa’s OBP was nice, but other numbers were coming too slowly. I don’t think I needed him in an 8 team h2h. Plus he’s old and achey.

    How’d I do?

    • Slappy Jack says:
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      @Alex: push? not knowing league stuff
      imo I think Mancini has more in the tank, it will come

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Alex: Personally I like Martinez a lot more but trust your gut. In an 8 team league there are no rules.

  4. BirdMan says:
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    Explainer on M. Brantley not being ranked inside the Top 100??

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @BirdMan: Only have 100 spots — by this time next week he’ll be done for the year again.

  5. Don'tBeAHader says:
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    Is Lowrie too much to give for a slow starting Matt Carp?
    What about Grandal for the great Mancini?

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Don’tBeAHader: to me Lowrie for Carp is a good buy low/sell high swap.
      If you have a solid catcher already then yea, make that trade. I don’t understand all of the Mancini obsession.

  6. Nate says:
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    How in the hell is Brandon Belt not on this list?

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Nate: There are only 100 spots. Belt is 101.

      • Greg says:
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        @Kerry Klug: 101 but performing top 25 for sure….

  7. henncoop says:
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    Great work …one correction C Santana is now a Phillie

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @henncoop: Oh man — old habits die hard.

  8. Wile E Coyote says:
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    You’re rapidly becoming my favorite offensive ranker, we see eye-to-eye very often, particularly on the “hot spots.” Yeah the Seager / Didi 50/50 is a great one, though I’m all in on Didi in that prop bet all day long. But I get that for most people it will be hard to divest from Seager’s potential added to his career start, and the Dodgers’ reliance upon him. How does the common perception of him change if he loses SS eligibility and becomes a 3B or OF though?

    I thought I’d take issue with your initial placement of Acuna when you told someone in the comments you’d put him at 75ish once he played. I was wrong. I like him where you put him, with the expectation that he jumps upwards of 20 – 30 spots by the ASB. I think he ends up being in the neighborhood of, but better than, Benintendi. I’m too embarrassed to admit what I traded him for 2 weeks ago. It made sense at the time. I am having the regrets.

    Wil Myers’ rank will need adjustment, and while yesterday’s injury excuses you, it only further clouds his value. I’m invested in both him and Lamb and its difficult enough to be patient with them, but even harder to not imagine that their value even when healthy is diminished by the types of injuries they have.

    I like Baez quite a bit more than currently ranked, but I get the apprehension based on previous years, Joe Maddon & his K-rate. I see it as an opportunity though.

    I still like Haniger higher than his rank, but its really just another case of requiring more evidence, and consistency for an otherwise largely unproven commodity.

    Finally, the next 2 players you should juxtapose, while not as sexy as Seager / Didi – are Matt Olson & Matt Chapman. I’m not even certain that the A’s discern as much a difference between the 2 as most rankers do.

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Wile E Coyote: Thanks man I really appreciate that. I’m always keeping in the back of my mind “Man what is Wile E gonna say about this list…”

      I still like Seager and think he’ll have a great career. he’s only 13 years old!

      Acuna: Like all players there will be some give/take with pitchers figuring him out. Overall not a bad start so far.

      Myers: Yea, unfortunately I wrote this before he went on the DL.

      Baez: I want to love Baez. I remember he was the hottest thing in the minors — if he gains some consistency he could be a top 30 player.

      Haniger: I love Haniger. had him at the beginning of last year. now I’m just bitter that he’s not on my team.

      Olson: I remember people saying they liked him more than Hoskins. I’m obviously sky high on Hoskins but more cautious with Olson. Chapman like Olson will help you dominate one match-up (1.260 OPS from Mar 31 – Apr 13.)but make you lose others (.581 OPS from April 14-25.)

      • Wile E Coyote says:
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        @Kerry Klug:

        Haha, right on man. I don’t envy the list-maker and all the criticism coming from all directions, and all sorts of armchair baseball experts – myself included. I try to view the list as less of a discrete valuation, and more like a probability cloud of proximate values. From that perspective we can have a rational conversation about the aspects which might place a player in one neighborhood over another.

        Just remember who called out the concern with Seager’s elbow!

  9. batflix says:
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    Rizzo:
    mar/apr ’16 .218
    may ’16 .250

    mar/apr ’17 .260
    may ’17 .194

    pretty sure he’s probably ok fine

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @batflix: I was really tempted to just write “It’s Anthony Rizzo. Come oooonnnnnn.”

  10. Hingle McCringleberry says:
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    One guy on this list has 1 hit vs. lefties in 2018, and 4 XBH vs them in 189 PAs since 2016. He’s also in the top 50. Any guesses on who?

  11. Drunk Mets PR Team says:
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    I just traded Clevinger for Javy Baez and I’m already terrified about it… But I like what I’m seeing and hitting 2nd with even a little more consistency/fewer K’s could be yuge. I was really interested to see where you had him, and I think I agree. Hopefully flies up the list soon! Thanks for the great work!

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Drunk Mets PR Team: if your pitching can survive it that ain’t half bad!

  12. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    And 4 dongs to go along with those 8 SB for timmy!

    Here’s hoping they bat hit leadoff more often. In the 6 spot he’s been hitting a ton of singles with guys on 1st who then clog his SB opportunity at 2nd. I don’t know if there’s a stat for SB attempts / SB chances, but he seems to try stealing anytime there’s an open base, be it 2nd or 3rd… at least right now!

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Great point! I get Tim Anderson and Tim Beckham mixed up all the time — but owners have to be loving this Tim Anderson value — another guy who will be showing up on a lot of end of year championship rosters.

  13. Mike says:
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    Would you buy low on Ozuna and give up billy Hamilton and Charlie Morton?

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Mike: Depends on what your pitching looks like. Charlie Morton is looking like a Cy Young candidate right now and I’m buying it. I’m also buying him missing a few starts this year though…

  14. Alex says:
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    Is Ryan Zimmerman a buy low candidate? In OBP leagues

    • Kerry Klug

      Kerry Klug says:
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      @Alex: I expected to look into this and say no…but the only number that’s really off for him is his .200 BABIP. His hard contact rate, GB/LD/FB rates are on par — BB/K rate…I’d actually say yes with the caveat that he’s always an injury risk.

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