This is where the rubber meets the road. For my first set of rest-of-season rankings, referencing R.E.M. and Michael Stipe feels so appropriate here. If you’ve been staring at your outfield roster on the IL, you are not alone, because everybody hurts right now.
I also want to offer a quick disclaimer. I’ve learned a few valuable lessons in my lifetime, but none more critical than this: never try to explain math on social media. Razzball is a public forum, so that same principle applies here. Let’s just say I used math (statistics) to build these rankings, and leave it at that.
The rankings reflect Yahoo eligibility for a 12-team, 5-outfielder format with a Utility spot. These ROS rankings are built on a blend of ATC and THE BAT X projections that were pulled on July 31. I like this setup because it mixes a smoothed-out projection baseline with Statcast data. Additionally, both systems adjust playing time for injuries, ensuring the baseline reflects true projected volume. From there, I made targeted manual adjustments to fine-tune specific outliers based on my personal bias.
It’s not perfect, and you may feel differently about some of these. Keep in mind that I submitted this article before the trade deadline, so a trade or another injury could shift the landscape. All stats reflected in the write-up are prior to July 31 game action. With that out of the way, let’s get to the rankings.
Ranks 1-20
This tier is missing a few of the usual suspects with so many key players hurt. Notable injuries include Soto, Judge, Buxton, Bellinger, Rooker, and Anthony (sigh).
Yordan Alvarez continues to mash, and even with a durability adjustment to his z-score, I mean rank, he still leads the pack.
Julio Rodriguez has a career OPS of .926 in August and .915 in Sep/Oct. Good times are ahead.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (aka Fun Jewels) has really picked it up. I downgraded him for health concerns, but he also gets a little bump for 2B eligibility.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is finally back, and I love him when healthy, but he also gets pushed down a few spots for injury risk. The projection systems had him higher, but I had to bake in more risk.
I moved both Kyle Tucker and Jackson Merrill down a bit from the model, as I couldn’t justify keeping them higher. Merrill is finally showing signs of life with 5 HRs and a .353 AVG in 13 second half games. Tucker even has a few HRs in the second half, so maybe he gets going after a brutal first half.
Ranks 21-40
This tier comprises your locked-in weekly starters, but we start seeing more trade-offs between floor and ceiling. We also have a few players bumped down here purely due to recent injuries.
Brandon Nimmo continues to deserve better, and perhaps his luck changes in the second half. As I mentioned last week, his expected stats are far superior to his actual results. Langford gets dinged for his inability to stay on the field despite immense talent. The early Buxton comps are very much in play.
Unfortunately, Juan Soto is lower than you’d like due to a grade 2 calf strain. Calf injuries are notoriously tricky, and I expect him to be out on the long end of that timeline (6 weeks or more).
Speaking of Byron Buxton, he received a hip injection, so I expect him to be out longer. As a realist, I do not expect him to return soon. I knocked him down more than I wanted to.
Sam Antonacci is higher than you may expect as the primary leadoff man for the Pale Hose. Prorate his stats over 150 games, and you get 97/14/55/24/.280. He also has 2B/3B eligibility.
The projection systems like Taylor Ward and Teoscar Hernandez more than I do. I moved them down several spots after continued disappointment.
Oneil Cruz is tracking to return soon and will climb in my rankings once he is active. He would slot in 9 spots higher if he was active.
Luis Robert Jr. is back after a lengthy absence, but gets downgraded due to chronic durability concerns.
George Springer rounds out the top 40 and is finally starting to look like the guy we saw last year, though his durability and injury risk keep him knocked down in my rankings.
Ranks 41-60
This is where we round out starting lineups in 5-OF formats with some veterans and higher variance upside plays you are trusting in your OF4 and OF5 spots.
Luke Keaschall is not hitting for power, but has been getting on base with his double-plus plate skills (8th highest OBP in MLB since June 9 over 40 games). He also qualifies at 2B. I believe there is still upside here (we saw it last year), and I expect more of it to show up in the final two months.
Jarren Duran at 50 is about the best I can do. He deserves to be lower. I dropped him more than the projections. A change of scenery may do wonders for him, but I refuse to be optimistic with his approach.
Jose Altuve at 51 is generous, and I manually adjusted him down. Maybe he turns it around in the final two months, but he isn’t even at replacement value right now with a 92 wRC+ and the highest K rate of his career. The proverbial cliff is usually steep.
Maikel Garcia looks like he is going to have a lost season as he continues to battle hand soreness and does not appear to be ready.
On the flip side, not sure what has gotten into Dylan Crews, but he’s been hot in the second half (3 HRs, 16 BB%, .282 AVG, .440 OBP). Maybe it’s true: growth is not linear. I still need to see more over a larger sample size to believe it, especially with a 28% K rate over those 11 games. My rankings include a downward adjustment, but he makes the top 60.
It brings me much sadness to see Aaron Judge this low. He has not resumed baseball activities. No return date is in sight, and the projections are only showing 22 games for him.
Chase DeLauter is hitting again and could be much higher. However, he is approaching uncharted territory: his career high in games played at any level is 114, and he is already at 92 through July 30. He gets dinged for that.
I like Cole Carrigg in this group given his home park and raw upside if he runs like he did in the minors.
Ranks 61-80
We are now out of the safe zone and are approaching bench or utility territory in 12-team formats. I like to focus on upside and value here.
Steven Kwan has been a madman since July 1 and is back in his familiar leadoff spot (10 Runs, 5 SBs, .373 AVG, .455 OBP since July 1). Last time I checked, average was still one of the five scoring categories.
The projection systems love Jasson Dominguez, but I manually adjusted him down to a respectable level. I need to see it before I can move him any higher, and this ranking is generous enough. Playing time is there, though.
Esmerlyn Valdez has been Ruthian since his second call-up, but his 35% K rate and .226 xBA vs .277 AVG worry me that regression is looming. Can his eruption continue? Possibly. Ride him until he gives us a reason not to.
A.J. Ewing is another favorite of mine in this group. He also qualifies at 2B, but without Soto hitting behind him, that leadoff spot is less attractive.
Cedric Mullins has been consistently “consistent” and has been a buy of Grey’s pretty much all year.
Ranks 81-100
Hopefully, you are not relying on starting any of these guys in 12-teamers, except for Cody Bellinger, of course, who is out for a while with a grade 2 hamstring injury. Generally, this tier offers streaming options or emergency, break-glass IL fill-ins.
Garrett Mitchell showed some promise during an extended hot streak but has cooled off (.211 AVG, 2 XBHs, 0 HRs) in the second half.
At this stage, I would honestly rather stash one of the available prospects on this list than use most of these guys, unless someone gets hot. The rest of this group is meh at best.
If other guys not listed heat up, go get those hot schmotatoes instead. There isn’t much time left in the season, and a hot hitter for two weeks will do much more for you than keeping dead weight / no upside players on your bench.
Thanks for reading. You can find me on X at @Toolsy3.
Buxton or Grisham+Lombard Jr?
Hector Rodriguez a positive addition for Adel? Going to Cleveland doesn’t have the same urgency as going to Coors or GAB (i.e. Rodriguez).
Nice list, I like Carrigg to make a nice push ROS now that the Rockies removed some outfield competition
Thanks! I agree. The path to regular everyday ABs is much clearer now, so the volume alone gives him a great runway down the stretch. I think he is a fun ROS target, and he has some solid upside with his speed and home park. He is also a switch-hitter, and his LHP/RHP splits are pretty even.
Jake Bauers at 89th??? What am I missing here
Fair call, he’s definitely outplayed #89 YTD and probably should be a little higher, but since these ranks are strictly forward-looking, a few underlying red flags drag him down.
Systems like ATC and THE BAT X project regression and his batting average to drop back toward his career norms down the stretch. He has an unsustainable 23% HR/FB rate. He is also locked into a strong-side platoon that limits his overall plate appearances compared to everyday starters. And finally, there is some health risk as he is playing through a fractured big toe.
He’s been a great pickup so far, but these factors cap him. I think it’s reasonable to say he has outperformed and nobody expected what he has done up to this point.