Grey recently talked about the smell of napalm.
There is another unmistakable stench in the air. Agent Smith from The Matrix said it best: “It’s the smell, if there is such a thing. I feel saturated by it. I can taste your stink, and every time I do, I fear that I’ve somehow been infected by it.”
What is that smell, you ask? It’s the smell of fantasy football season, and it’s back, baby!
Wait. What? Yes, you read that correctly, and I assure you that this is a fantasy baseball post. Trust me, I am sober and lucid. The fantasy baseball season is a marathon, and this leg of it is a special time. Generally, these are the dog days of summer when many of your league-mates shift their focus to fantasy football. They need to “prepare” for the draft and do their “research,” and for a period of time, they become distracted or even completely check out.
I realize not all leagues operate this way. However, for many of us, this happens every year, just like the great wildebeest migration. You are now in the driver’s seat and need to be vigilant, stay the course, keep up to date with current info, and exploit those glitches.
Here are some nuggets specific to outfielders… one for each team. Hopefully, you can use them to your advantage or at least find them interesting. Enjoy.
All Stats Are Through July 24 Unless Otherwise Noted.
AL East
Baltimore: Colton Cowser hit .243 with 24 HRs over 153 games as a rookie. Unfortunately, he’s hit just .200 with 24 HRs in 183 games since that standout rookie year.
Boston: Roman Anthony (60-day IL) is 75% rostered in Yahoo. Boston has climbed into a playoff spot after reeling off 15 consecutive wins. If he returns, he costs you nothing as a late-season stash.
NYY: Aaron Judge will not be back anytime soon. Doctors still have not cleared him for baseball activities. He cannot do anything that puts stress on his ribcage.
Tampa: Chandler Simpson is having a weird season. He went 30 games without a SB. Since June 20, he’s leading the league in SBs with 12. Interestingly, he’s primarily hit 5th or 6th over that stretch. Leave it to the Rays to be unconventional. Unfortunately, the batting order change has not translated into more RBIs.
Toronto: George Springer has struggled, but is having his best stretch of the year. Since June 12, he has 5 HRs and 13 RBIs while hitting .286. Half of his season total in HRs and RBIs have come in this 26-game stretch. Maybe he can do a little better in the 2nd half.
AL Central
CHW: Sam Antonacci continues to get on base and score runs like it’s his job. Coincidentally, he bats leadoff and has scored the 11th-most runs in baseball since June 1.
Cleveland: Steven Kwan was unplayable all year until now. Since July 1, he is hitting .426 with a .523 OBP and 4 SBs across 18 games, earning back his leadoff spot. Jose Ramirez has also returned.
Detroit: Riley Greene is having a good year and got his walk rate back up to 12.3%, but he has a .367 BABIP. His career BABIP is .348. His AVG is 22 points higher than his xBA.
KC: Jac Caglianone has 16 HRs and 37 RBIs on the season. 11 of those HRs and 26 of those RBIs have come since June 1 (42 games). Over his previous 54 games, he hit just 5 HRs and had 11 RBIs with a .236 AVG and a 31% K rate.
Minnesota: Luke Keaschall, a sleeper of Grey’s, is now outfield eligible. Since June 1 he is 9th overall in OBP (43 games). He has double plus plate skills and speed. Barrels are way down, but there is upside here.
AL West
Houston: Jose Altuve has 8 HRs in 37 games after returning from the IL, but it comes with a .229 AVG and a .279 OBP over that stretch with a 24% K rate (highest of his career).
LAA: Mike Trout is on pace to play 132 games this season after playing in 130 games last year. He averaged 64 games over the previous five seasons. Baseball is better when he is on the field.
Sacramento: Tyler Soderstrom is on a tear over his last 40 games, hitting .318 with 11 HRs, 24 RBIs, a .434 OBP, and more walks than strikeouts.
Seattle: Julio Rodriguez is currently #104 on the player rater. This is your annual reminder that JRod has a career OPS of .897 in the 2nd half vs .739 in the 1st half. Maybe you can get him. You’ll have to give up someone with value, but it can be done.
Texas: Brandon Nimmo looks like a prime buy-low candidate. Take a look at his Statcast page: he’s posting the highest EV and hard-hit rate of his career. His xBA sits 21 points higher than his BA, his xSLG is 76 points higher than his SLG, and his xwOBA is .374 vs his actual wOBA of .336.
NL East
Atlanta: Michael Harris II is posting solid overall numbers, but the underlying profile carries massive downside risk. He has walked just 15 times in 97 games this year after drawing 16 walks in 160 games last season, and one of them was intentional.
Miami: Jakob Marsee is hitting .194 in 99 games. His BABIP is 109 points lower than 2025. He’s hitting more fly balls, which have a much lower BABIP. He has 19 SBs, but has been caught stealing 11 times (37% of his attempts).
NYM: A.J. Ewing likes Citi Field; 6 of his 7 HRs have come at home. He’s hit leadoff in 13 out of his last 14 games. I mentioned him last week.
Philadelphia: Brandon Marsh has 16 HRs and 47 RBIs across 99 games. However, 11 HRs and 24 RBIs came in a 33-game stretch from May 25 to July 1 (.405 BABIP). His season AVG is .288 vs an xBA of .265.
Washington: James Wood leads the league in PAs, runs and walks. He is now 5th in OPS with 28 HRs, 69 RBIs and 15 SBs. However, he is batting .161 with a .206 OBP in the 2nd half with 0 HRs. Voice in head: “Calm down, it’s only 7 games and it is a small sample size.” But we all remember last year.
NL Central
CHC: Pete Crow-Armstrong has been on quite a heater. Since June 1, he has a .486 wOBA and a 15.5% walk rate, but it comes with a .438 BABIP. The walks are encouraging, though.
Cincinnati: JJ Bleday has 17 HRs and 44 RBIs with a .239 AVG. He has 6 HRs and 14 RBIs on the road. He’s played more games on the road (39 vs 35 home games).
Milwaukee: Garrett Mitchell has enjoyed a breakout year. From June 1 to July 20, he was 9th in the league in wOBA (41 games), but it came with a .457 BABIP and a 27.5% K rate over that stretch. He is 0 for his last 9, maybe he’s a sell.
Pittsburgh: Esmerlyn Valdez has been sensational since his second call up on June 11. He has 11 HRs and 29 RBIs over those 30 games. Be careful, that production comes with a 36% K rate and a .408 BABIP with an xBA of .234 vs a .307 AVG over that stretch.
STL: Joshua Baez hit his 30th HR in AAA on July 24, but has a 30% K rate. While he has loud tools, big league pitchers may find a way to exploit his weakness, but he should be universally stashed.
NL West
Arizona: Corbin Carroll had 1 HR and hit .177 over his last 26 games before finally hitting a HR on July 22. This could be a buy low opportunity.
Colorado: Charlie Condon should be stashed. It’s only a matter of time before he gets the call. He has 20 HRs in AAA with a .409 OBP and a respectable strikeout rate of 24.6%.
LAD: Kyle Tucker hit a HR on July 24. He has an xBA of .262 and is hitting .240. Unfortunately, that’s the best I could come up with.
San Diego: Jackson Merrill has 4 HRs over his last 6 games. Surprisingly, he’s hitting .286 vs LHP compared to .200 vs RHP. He’s on pace for 32 SBs with a 91% success rate.
San Francisco: Heliot Ramos is the only right-handed batter to hit a ball into McCovey Cove. Oracle Park opened in 2000. From 2024-2026, Oracle is 26th in park factor. Ramos has neutral home/road power splits. Just maybe if he has better luck on the road, one day he can put together a 30 HR season.
Thanks for reading. You can also find me on X at @Toolsy3.
Good stuff!
Appreciate that, Vin! Been a long-time follower of the site. Really enjoy reading your comments as well. Always great input.
I put Julio on the trade block in a Keep 10 forever with no contracts. Nary an inquiry. August 1 is just around the corner but it doesn’t appear that Julio’s 2nd half resurgence is. It’s not coincidental that the M’s are sub .500. They need to get Julio out of the meat of the order until he starts producing like a meat of the order type hitter.
History has a habit of repeating itself. He’s only 25 and already has two 20/20 and two 30/30 seasons on his resume. His career OPS is .926 in August and .917 in September/October. Plus, he was dealing with a minor leg injury and just came back from a concussion. Numbers are usually there at the end. Yes, sometimes we have to wait for them. I am not going to tell you how to manage your team, but you could be selling low.