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I may have mentioned once or twice by now: Fantasy is a game a failure. We cannot predict human behavior 100% of the time, so our predictions about players are going to be wrong. Often. The best fantasy players aren’t necessarily good at predicting what players will do; they are simply less bad at it than the rest of us are. The best fantasy players are also likely less reactive to their analytical misses, able to respond and adjust accordingly, while the rest of us are still yelling at ourselves for our misses – or, even worse, blaming players for how they have failed us. The best fantasy players are able to acknowledge their analysis was wrong and quickly begin the process of rebuilding analysis to help moving forward. 

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A third reasonable question might be, “Is the player currently performing?” Baseball is a game of streaks, so it shouldn’t be a disqualifier if a player is currently underperforming, but the fact is Shaw is doing exactly the types of things we’d like to see a FAB pickup do. In the six games (including five started games) he’s appeared in since June 13th, Shaw has 25 PA and is 7 of 22 (.318 BA) with 2 triples, 1 HR, 6 R, 7 RBI, 2 BB, and 1 HBP while maintaining an 8% BB% with only a 20% K%. Obviously, the sample is small, but in fantasy, quick decisions have to be made, leading us as fantasy managers to need to react to small samples.

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So, if failure is such a large part of the game, both in baseball and in fantasy, why are we so quick to give up on players who have had success previously but who have had recent failure? Players are complex, like the Ensō. They are humans with emotions and flaws and hot streaks. But as fantasy managers, we are vicious with those on our roster who show too much imperfection. “Rage” and “spite” drops happen all the time. And we are slow to forgive a player who we feel dragged our team down. On some level, our emotional response is completely understandable, maybe cathartic. But it’s also often kind of dumb. 

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It’s hard to figure out who Merrill is. Sometimes, he looks like the touted prospect who hit the majors in stride and became an immediate impact player. Sometimes, he looks like he might not belong on a baseball field. His surface stats to begin 2026 show a good example of both: he’s hitting a measly .224 with a pitiful .288 OBP and even more pitiful .361 SLG%. That looks bad. He also has 4 HR, 22 R, 18 RBI, and 7 SB. Extrapolated to 650 PAs, Merrill’s pace comes out to 16 HR, 88 R, 72 RBI, and 28 SB.

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The analysts I consistently read and listen to are the ones who are willing to go back and discuss what they missed, as well as what they got right. Those analysts are the ones who have my confidence that they’ll both be good and keep getting better. So, to that end, I’ll take my own medicine: today’s practice in Wise Effort will be taking an honest look at where I’ve been right and wrong, with one player on each side.

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But we are so desperate for baseball by the time opening day rolls around that we can convince ourselves that this minute sample is meaningful, so you’ll see plenty of fantasy managers overreacting to player starts. Sometimes, the best response we can have to a fellow manager’s meltdown over a player is, “Is that so?” If we can maintain equanimity in these first few weeks while others around us panic, maybe there is value to be had through trades or, in some situations where managers have really gone on tilt, through the waiver wire.

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When it comes to fantasy baseball, perhaps our “virtuous” actions are the little parts of the grind – the FAAB, the examining underlying data, the listening to podcasts obsessively (or is that just me). When it comes to actual baseball, perhaps the “virtuous” actions are the little details that players work to correct to take a weakness and turn it into a strength. In both cases, the likely karmic consequence will be increased competitiveness, possibly more money, and a level of contentment with the commitment to getting better.

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My personal dukkha comes in the form of one Michael Harris II. I am sure Harris is a lovely person. I love watching him play, especially the field. And I have found his hit tool enticing for years, so in 2025, I would have been the one in your draft picking him in the 3rd round. The projections said the pick wasn’t unreasonable, he smokes the ball (HH% of over 45% for his career), and he has a surprisingly good Z-Contact% (upper 80%-range) for such a free swinger. Harris’s 30 HR / 30 SB upside is undeniable and easy to chase. Many of us in the fantasy community have also been guilty of expecting Harris’s impressive hit tool to continue to develop to the point that he is a near superstar level. I still believe that player is in there.

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Failure is a part of fantasy, and no matter how much analysis or knowledge we put into our draft, players are going to underperform what we thought they would. When this happens, we then must decide if the player is worth continuing to play or even roster; maybe we need to cut our losses while we can and find replacements. But underperformance can, and often is, a temporary blip, not something that must be immediately reacted to.

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Happy Thanksgiving, everyone, and welcome back to my weekly rankings. This week is the Top 50 Dynasty Left Fielders for 2026.

Left field is a weird position. On one hand, it is where old players go to live out the rest of their careers if they are not used as fulltime designated hitters. Many players who used to be really good right or center fielders eventually move over to left field as they slow down or their arm gets weaker. There are also a lot of players who spent much of their time at DH but played enough in the field to be considered a left fielder.

The most obvious is Kyle Schwarber, who played in only eight games in the field, all as a left fielder. But in leagues like Yahoo, that is enough to qualify as a left fielder and not just the UTL designation, so Schwarber is ranked along with the rest of the left fielders (and I am trying to avoid doing a Top 3 DH rankings as Shohei Ohtani, Marcell Ozuna and Andrew McCutchen are the only true DH players remaining. They will be talked about when we get to the right fielders).

Here is the age breakdown of this position:

35+: 2
30-34: 16
25-29: 23
20-24: 9

Nearly half of the players I ranked are 30 or older. However, there are some really young, very good players who qualify as left fielders. All that means is that they likely have a defensive shortcoming but their bats are just fine, and in fantasy baseball, that is all we care about.

This is also a position that, like second base, a host of players also can qualify as other position players, whether it is in the infield or over in center or right field. If you are in a league where you have the OF designation, this is not big deal for you. But in league that break out players by position in the outfield, this gives some added value to a player.

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Anyone else out there have a theme song when they draft their baseball teams?

I draft hard (he drafts hard) every day of my life
I draft ’til I ache in my bones
At the end (at the end of the day)
I take home my hard-earned team all on my own
I get down on my knees
And I start to pray
‘Til the tears run down from my eyes
Lord, somebody (somebody), ooh somebody
Can anybody find me… ADP to love?

Just me? Alright.

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