Ranking players is particularly difficult in a 60-game season. Typically, I avoid playing the hot hand, instead choosing to stick with my stars. If I bench Pete Alonso for Jesús Aguilar, and then Alonso ends his rut by hitting two homers that night, I would feel foolish.

I’m not implying that, by any means, I prefer Aguilar to Alonso. But hot and cold streaks are real and, in such a short season, we have to take advantage of them to be successful.

As a result, I decided to shake things up in this edition of my corner infielder rankings.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

With the season underway, there have been a substantial number of movers on my corner infielder rankings. It’s difficult to make too much of a week of play, but with only 60 games total, you’ll have to be aggressive in order to win your league. And that means jumping on breakouts and benching those who might be flaming out.

I made my rankings initially using z-scores based on projections. Now that we have some actual results, it’s a bit of a free for all. Know only that I’m thinking prospectively, i.e., ranking players based on how I expect them to perform relative to one another for the rest of the season. Just because Starlin Castro has been better than Miguel Sanó to date, doesn’t mean that I expect him to be better going forward.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Now that there is a planned baseball season, we can rejoice because fantasy baseball drafts have resumed. Concomitantly, there is new ADP data to analyze, giving me an excuse to ignore my loved ones and write about fake baseball.

That said, I do have some valuable insight to offer. Using only drafts conducted since the announcement of the 60-game season, I want to discuss outfielders selected between picks 80 and 120 and compare their ATC projections to find some hidden value. The reason being that, when you’re in a draft, you should take the hitter that represents the best value on the board regardless of his ADP.

Say, for example,

  1. you have pick 80
  2. outfielders of ADP 71 and 91 are available
  3. neither will likely be on the board for your next pick
  4. and you’ve assessed that the hitter with the ADP of 91 provides more relative value, then
  5. you should draft 91, even though it will feel less satisfying.

Of course, you need to know who represents greater relative value to make that decision, which is where I come in.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

One of the most satisfying things in fantasy baseball is looking at your players’ results at the end of the day and seeing a combo meal. For the uninitiated, a combo meal occurs when a player hits a home run and steals a base in the same game (Note from Donkey: AKA the Slam and Legs). Although the following belies real baseball, I’m ordinarily more excited by a 1/4 combo meal with one run and one RBI than a 4/5 two-run, 3-RBI performance.

Unfortunately, however, the players most likely to yield a combo meal are often selected in the early rounds of drafts. With stolen bases becoming ever more infrequent, an excellent way to gain an edge over your competitors is to select cheap stolen base targets who also won’t set you back in the power categories. If you can’t get Christian Yelich, rather than later drafting Dee Gordon, you should take a combo meal sleeper. To that end, I’ve identified a few names for you.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It’s already pretty difficult to forecast a player’s performance even with the large samples that we have. Consider Whit Merrifield, a player with a large recent body of work, as he’s the current active leader in consecutive games-played. Will he ever steal 20 bases again? How about Christian Yelich? He played most of 2019, but many remain skeptical that he can repeat that historic pace, at least to the same degree.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

With that said, I began with ATC projections, which amalgamate the best from other projection systems. I then altered the projections based on my own assumptions about playing time and the five traditional hitting categories. For instance, I accounted for barrel rate by using hitters’ 2019 predicted home runs–which are home run totals I derived based on barrel rate, among other inputs–and projecting out my own 2020 home run totals.

Finally, I performed my own mock 12 team draft to derive player values based on z-scores from my projections. You can read more about that process in my friend Alexander Chase’s excellent article. A z-score shows the relationship to the mean of a group of values, measured in terms of standard deviations—degrees of spread—from the mean. Where a z-score is 0, the value is equivalent to the mean in the sample. Where a z-score is 1.0, the value is one standard deviation greater than the mean.

Z-scores are useful because, in a vacuum, 15 HRs and 15 SBs are meaningless. They are only telling in relation to one another. For instance, if the mean for the sample of players’ SBs is 9 and the mean for their HRs is 25, then those 15 SBs are worth a lot more than those 15 HRs. Z-scores reflect those relative values.

And with my process out of the way, I won’t bury the lede any longer.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Generally, when it comes to closers I’m not interested in blowing too much draft capital. There are two reasons why. First, closers lose their jobs so frequently—by virtue of injury, poor high-leverage performance in small samples, or trade deadline deals—that it’s not worth investing too much draft capital in them. Second, because so many lose their jobs, others will always be available on the waiver wire at various times throughout the season. Look no further than 2019’s top two closers who both lost their jobs: Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen. They not only lost the closer role, but they also wasted top-75 picks for their fantasy owners.

Recently, I took part in a mock draft where I selected three closers: Brad HandTaylor Rogers, and Ian Kennedy. I got them at picks 113, 176, and 224, respectively. After the draft, I wrote about my picks, which required me to research them in greater detail. And diving deeper into Hand, Rogers, and Kennedy only strengthened my resolve not to draft closers early.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

As an attorney, I spend most of my days writing. So what do I want to do when I get home? Write more, of course. That’s why I’ll be writing for Razzball too now. I know what you’re thinking: what a fantastic introduction. My only response is I’d prefer to let my work speak for itself.

I’ve known for quite some time I wanted to write about José Abreu first this offseason. I usually lean toward discussing hitters anyway, but Abreu’s lackluster 2019 has knocked him down draft boards and there’s just too much value to ignore. Indeed, even noted smart person Tristan H. Cockroft has Abreu ranked 126th for 2020.

Abreu had an NFBC ADP of 87.2 entering last season’s drafts, and 44.1 the season before. But his 2019 wasn’t actually all that bad: .284 AVG/ 85 R/ 33 HR/ 123 RBI/ 2 SB. And he’s one of the most consistent players in baseball. Besides an injury-shortened 2018 — in which he nevertheless maintained a nice pace — Abreu had 5 straight seasons of hitting .284+ with at least 25 home runs (four of which were over 30 HR) and 100 RBI. For that reason, even as he enters his age-33 season, I’m not concerned with the floor, which is generally what I look for in the early rounds.

No, my guess is Cockroft and others have discounted Abreu because they’re worried about the ceiling. In fairness to them, with such consistency comes lowered expectations for a breakout, particularly as a player ages. But I think Abreu can outperform expectations. Let me show you why:

Please, blog, may I have some more?